Abstract
Iceland’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that new projects have rekindled rapid growth and the economy is exhibiting signs of overheating, with imbalances evident in inflation, the current account, and external debt. GDP grew at an average rate of 3.8 percent between 1995 and 2004, second only to Ireland among industrial countries. Major investment projects have contributed both to the high growth rate and to overall macroeconomic volatility because of their size relative to that of the economy.
1. This supplement provides an update to the staff’s medium-term outlook for Iceland based on revisions to historical National Accounts data and outturns since the staff report was finalized. The new information does not change the thrust of the staff appraisal, though the stronger momentum of growth heightens the risks and strengthens the case for a more restrictive fiscal stance.1
2. In mid–September, Statistics Iceland released revisions to quarterly National Accounts data extending back to 1997 that reflect the application of chain linking. The revisions suggest that the trough of the 2001-02 downturn was milder, with the pace of the subsequent recovery being slower in 2003, but faster in 2004 (annual growth in 2004 was revised up by 1 percentage point). Reported year–over–year GDP growth for the second quarter of 2005, at 6.8 percent, is slightly faster than was expected. Taken together, the revisions to GDP and its second quarter growth rate suggest that there is more momentum in the economy than assessed at the time the staff report was finalized. Additional support for this view is evident in September’s year–over–year CPI inflation rate of 4.8 percent, above both expectations and the 4 percent upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance range.
Iceland: Growth profile and Revisions
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 367; 10.5089/9781451819304.002.A002
3. Given the greater momentum in the economy, the staff outlook for growth and inflation in 2005 has been revised upward and the current account deficit is now forecast to be 13 percent of GDP. For 2006, however, staff expects a more pronounced slowing in growth because monetary policy is likely to tighten more than previously expected with inflation now outside the tolerance range. In fact, markets are expecting the policy rate to increase by 50 basis points, to 10 percent, when the quarterly Monetary Bulletin is released on September 29, with most analysts looking for additional tightening to follow. Based on the outlook for faster growth in nominal private consumption and wages, higher than previously expected revenues will lead to slightly larger fiscal surpluses in 2005 and 2006. However, on a structural basis, the fiscal balance is now forecast to be in deficit over these two years as opposed to the very small surpluses forecast previously.
4. The updated outlook, with a larger current account deficit, higher short-term nominal interest rates and, consequently, the potential for more appreciation of the currency in the near-term, implies that the risk of a sharp slowing in activity further out may now be higher.
Iceland: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-06
Staff estimates. Actual minus potential output, in percent of potential output.
In percent of labor force.
A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
National accounts basis.
A positive (negative) sign indicates a decrease (increase) in gross official foreign reserves.
Excluding imports from the construction of hydropower facility and smelters in 2003-04.
Iceland: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-06
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 Staff Forecast |
2006 Staff Forecast |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Percentage change unless otherwise noted) | ||||||||||
| National Accounts (constant prices) | ||||||||||
| Gross domestic product | 5.0 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | |||
| Total domestic demand | 6.6 | -2.8 | -3.6 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 1.6 | |||
| Private consumption | 4.1 | -3.2 | -1.8 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | |||
| Public consumption | 4.4 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | |||
| Gross fixed investment | 14.6 | -4.9 | -19.6 | 20.5 | 21.0 | 22.2 | -5.5 | |||
| Export of goods and services | 4.3 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 8.6 | |||
| Imports of goods and services | 8.5 | -9.1 | -2.6 | 10.7 | 14.2 | 18.0 | 1.0 | |||
| Output gap 1/ | 3.0 | 2.2 | -2.3 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | |||
| Selected Indicators | ||||||||||
| Fish catch (at constant prices) | 1.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | -0.5 | 0.6 | … | … | |||
| Unemployment rate 2/ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | |||
| Real disposable income per capita | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | -0.3 | 4.3 | … | … | |||
| Consumer price index | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | |||
| Nominal wage index | 6.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | |||
| Nominal effective exchange rate 3/ | -0.1 | -16.7 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | … | … | |||
| Real effective exchange rate (CPI) 3/ | 2.9 | -13.0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.2 | … | … | |||
| Terms of trade | -2.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -4.1 | -1.3 | -2.7 | -4.5 | |||
| Money and Credit | ||||||||||
| Deposit money bank credit (end-period) | 26.7 | 17.4 | 5.2 | 25.6 | 48.8 | … | … | |||
| Domestic credit (end-period) | 26.2 | 13.2 | 0.8 | 16.4 | 41.3 | … | … | |||
| Broad money (end-period) | 11.2 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 23.5 | 15.7 | … | … | |||
| CBI policy rate (period average) | 10.4 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 6.3 | … | … | |||
| Public Finance (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| General government 4/ | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 47.0 | 45.7 | 46.9 | 47.9 | 48.5 | 47.9 | 47.4 | |||
| Expenditure | 44.5 | 45.6 | 46.8 | 48.9 | 48.0 | 46.5 | 46.2 | |||
| Balance | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | |||
| Balance of Payments (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| Current account balance | -10.4 | -4.5 | 1.4 | -5.0 | -8.4 | -13.0 | -12.0 | |||
| Trade balance (goods) | -5.6 | -0.8 | 1.8 | -2.0 | -4.1 | -9.0 | -7.1 | |||
| Financial and capital account | 11.3 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 12.0 | |||
| o/w: reserve assets 5/ | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -2.9 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 0.1 | |||
| Net errors and omissions | -1.0 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 2.9 | -7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Gross external debt | 103.0 | 120.3 | 132.3 | 156.4 | 213.7 | 197.0 | 187.0 | |||
| Central bank gross reserves (in months | ||||||||||
| of imports of goods and services) 6/ | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |||
Staff estimates. Actual minus potential output, in percent of potential output.
In percent of labor force.
A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
National accounts basis.
A positive (negative) sign indicates a decrease (increase) in gross official foreign reserves.
Excluding imports from the construction of hydropower facility and smelters in 2003-04.
Iceland: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-06
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 Staff Forecast |
2006 Staff Forecast |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Percentage change unless otherwise noted) | ||||||||||
| National Accounts (constant prices) | ||||||||||
| Gross domestic product | 5.0 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | |||
| Total domestic demand | 6.6 | -2.8 | -3.6 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 1.6 | |||
| Private consumption | 4.1 | -3.2 | -1.8 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | |||
| Public consumption | 4.4 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | |||
| Gross fixed investment | 14.6 | -4.9 | -19.6 | 20.5 | 21.0 | 22.2 | -5.5 | |||
| Export of goods and services | 4.3 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 8.6 | |||
| Imports of goods and services | 8.5 | -9.1 | -2.6 | 10.7 | 14.2 | 18.0 | 1.0 | |||
| Output gap 1/ | 3.0 | 2.2 | -2.3 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | |||
| Selected Indicators | ||||||||||
| Fish catch (at constant prices) | 1.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | -0.5 | 0.6 | … | … | |||
| Unemployment rate 2/ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | |||
| Real disposable income per capita | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | -0.3 | 4.3 | … | … | |||
| Consumer price index | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | |||
| Nominal wage index | 6.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | |||
| Nominal effective exchange rate 3/ | -0.1 | -16.7 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | … | … | |||
| Real effective exchange rate (CPI) 3/ | 2.9 | -13.0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.2 | … | … | |||
| Terms of trade | -2.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -4.1 | -1.3 | -2.7 | -4.5 | |||
| Money and Credit | ||||||||||
| Deposit money bank credit (end-period) | 26.7 | 17.4 | 5.2 | 25.6 | 48.8 | … | … | |||
| Domestic credit (end-period) | 26.2 | 13.2 | 0.8 | 16.4 | 41.3 | … | … | |||
| Broad money (end-period) | 11.2 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 23.5 | 15.7 | … | … | |||
| CBI policy rate (period average) | 10.4 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 6.3 | … | … | |||
| Public Finance (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| General government 4/ | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 47.0 | 45.7 | 46.9 | 47.9 | 48.5 | 47.9 | 47.4 | |||
| Expenditure | 44.5 | 45.6 | 46.8 | 48.9 | 48.0 | 46.5 | 46.2 | |||
| Balance | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | |||
| Balance of Payments (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| Current account balance | -10.4 | -4.5 | 1.4 | -5.0 | -8.4 | -13.0 | -12.0 | |||
| Trade balance (goods) | -5.6 | -0.8 | 1.8 | -2.0 | -4.1 | -9.0 | -7.1 | |||
| Financial and capital account | 11.3 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 12.0 | |||
| o/w: reserve assets 5/ | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -2.9 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 0.1 | |||
| Net errors and omissions | -1.0 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 2.9 | -7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Gross external debt | 103.0 | 120.3 | 132.3 | 156.4 | 213.7 | 197.0 | 187.0 | |||
| Central bank gross reserves (in months | ||||||||||
| of imports of goods and services) 6/ | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |||
Staff estimates. Actual minus potential output, in percent of potential output.
In percent of labor force.
A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
National accounts basis.
A positive (negative) sign indicates a decrease (increase) in gross official foreign reserves.
Excluding imports from the construction of hydropower facility and smelters in 2003-04.
Iceland: Summary Operations of the General Government, 1999–2006
(in percent of GDP)
In percent of potential GDP.
Change in percent.
Actual output less potential in percent of potential.
Iceland: Summary Operations of the General Government, 1999–2006
(in percent of GDP)
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
Prel. 2004 |
Proj. 2005 MoF |
Proj. 2005 IMF |
Proj. 2006 IMF |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 47.3 | 47.0 | 45.7 | 46.9 | 47.9 | 48.5 | 47.4 | 47.9 | 47.4 | |||
| Current revenue | 45.3 | 45.0 | 43.8 | 44.9 | 45.9 | 46.5 | 45.4 | 45.9 | 45.5 | |||
| of which: | ||||||||||||
| Direct taxes | 18.8 | 19.2 | 19.9 | 20.1 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 19.8 | |||
| Indirect taxes | 20.2 | 19.6 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 19.5 | 19.8 | |||
| Interest income | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | |||
| Capital revenue | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |||
| Total expenditure | 45.0 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 46.8 | 48.9 | 48.0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 46.2 | |||
| Current expenditure | 39.3 | 39.4 | 40.0 | 42.0 | 44.3 | 42.8 | 41.9 | 41.9 | 41.9 | |||
| of which: | ||||||||||||
| Interest expenditure | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.6 | |||
| Capital expenditure | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | |||
| Primary balance | 6.1 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | |||
| Overall balance | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | |||
| Debt position | ||||||||||||
| General government gross debt | 44.1 | 41.5 | 47.3 | 43.5 | 41.6 | 35.9 | 33.7 | 31.4 | 28.2 | |||
| General government net debt | 23.9 | 23.7 | 26.6 | 23.3 | 23.8 | 22.3 | 21.9 | 19.8 | 17.3 | |||
| Cyclically adjusted 1/ | ||||||||||||
| Primary revenue | 45.9 | 45.4 | 43.7 | 44.5 | 46.3 | 46.7 | … | 46.3 | 45.9 | |||
| Primary expenditure | 41.9 | 42.4 | 42.7 | 42.4 | 44.8 | 45.3 | … | 44.8 | 45.2 | |||
| Primary balance | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | … | 1.5 | 0.7 | |||
| Total revenue | 47.3 | 46.9 | 45.7 | 46.9 | 47.9 | 48.5 | … | 47.8 | 47.3 | |||
| Total expenditure | 45.7 | 45.9 | 46.5 | 45.7 | 48.3 | 48.5 | … | 48.0 | 47.9 | |||
| Overall balance | 1.7 | 1.1 | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.4 | -0.1 | … | -0.2 | -0.6 | |||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Real expenditure change 2/ | 6.6 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | … | 2.6 | 3.8 | |||
| Output gap 3/ | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | -2.3 | -1.2 | 1.0 | … | 3.2 | 3.7 | |||
In percent of potential GDP.
Change in percent.
Actual output less potential in percent of potential.
Iceland: Summary Operations of the General Government, 1999–2006
(in percent of GDP)
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
Prel. 2004 |
Proj. 2005 MoF |
Proj. 2005 IMF |
Proj. 2006 IMF |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 47.3 | 47.0 | 45.7 | 46.9 | 47.9 | 48.5 | 47.4 | 47.9 | 47.4 | |||
| Current revenue | 45.3 | 45.0 | 43.8 | 44.9 | 45.9 | 46.5 | 45.4 | 45.9 | 45.5 | |||
| of which: | ||||||||||||
| Direct taxes | 18.8 | 19.2 | 19.9 | 20.1 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 19.8 | |||
| Indirect taxes | 20.2 | 19.6 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 19.5 | 19.8 | |||
| Interest income | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | |||
| Capital revenue | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |||
| Total expenditure | 45.0 | 44.5 | 45.6 | 46.8 | 48.9 | 48.0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 46.2 | |||
| Current expenditure | 39.3 | 39.4 | 40.0 | 42.0 | 44.3 | 42.8 | 41.9 | 41.9 | 41.9 | |||
| of which: | ||||||||||||
| Interest expenditure | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.6 | |||
| Capital expenditure | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | |||
| Primary balance | 6.1 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | |||
| Overall balance | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | |||
| Debt position | ||||||||||||
| General government gross debt | 44.1 | 41.5 | 47.3 | 43.5 | 41.6 | 35.9 | 33.7 | 31.4 | 28.2 | |||
| General government net debt | 23.9 | 23.7 | 26.6 | 23.3 | 23.8 | 22.3 | 21.9 | 19.8 | 17.3 | |||
| Cyclically adjusted 1/ | ||||||||||||
| Primary revenue | 45.9 | 45.4 | 43.7 | 44.5 | 46.3 | 46.7 | … | 46.3 | 45.9 | |||
| Primary expenditure | 41.9 | 42.4 | 42.7 | 42.4 | 44.8 | 45.3 | … | 44.8 | 45.2 | |||
| Primary balance | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | … | 1.5 | 0.7 | |||
| Total revenue | 47.3 | 46.9 | 45.7 | 46.9 | 47.9 | 48.5 | … | 47.8 | 47.3 | |||
| Total expenditure | 45.7 | 45.9 | 46.5 | 45.7 | 48.3 | 48.5 | … | 48.0 | 47.9 | |||
| Overall balance | 1.7 | 1.1 | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.4 | -0.1 | … | -0.2 | -0.6 | |||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Real expenditure change 2/ | 6.6 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | … | 2.6 | 3.8 | |||
| Output gap 3/ | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | -2.3 | -1.2 | 1.0 | … | 3.2 | 3.7 | |||
In percent of potential GDP.
Change in percent.
Actual output less potential in percent of potential.
Iceland: Financial Soundness Indicators, 1998–2005
Commercial banks and six largest savings banks. Fisheries Investment Fund and Industrial Loan Fund included 1996–1997. FBA include 1998–1999. Kauphting Inc. included from year 1996. Figures for Islandsbanki include both the banking and insurance part of the corporation.
Inflation adjusted accounting principles were discontinued in year 2002. Results for year 2002 and onwards are therefore in nominal terms but were in real terms before year 2002.
Deposit money banks, adjusted for FBA and Commercial Loan Fund. Kaupthing bank Inc. included from year 2002 and Glitnir included from May 2003.
Item “miscellaneous” also includes individuals’ private business operations. Changed with new loan classification in year 2003. See note above.
Loans for which special provisions have been posted less specific provisions, and other loans which have been interest frozen. Appropriated assets not included.
New loan classification results in a break for this series in the year 2003.
Iceland: Financial Soundness Indicators, 1998–2005
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | as of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital adequacy | ||||||||||||
| Risk-based capital adequacy ratio (CAR) 1/ 4/ | 10.4 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 12.29 | 12.84 | |||||
| CAR excluding subordinated loans | 8.7 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 9.24 | 9.52 | |||||
| Tier 1 capital ratio | 9.9 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 9.69 | 10.38 | |||||
| Asset quality | ||||||||||||
| Credit institutions | ||||||||||||
| Total lending (in ISK billion) 2/ | 385.7 | 475.8 | 601.5 | 704.3 | 740.2 | 920.4 | 1,303.0 | 1,439.5 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 34.4 | 36.5 | 41.6 | 44.3 | 39.6 | 48.9 | 50.9 | 52.1 | Feb | |||
| Sectoral credit concentration | ||||||||||||
| Real estate loans (as percent of total loans) | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | … | … | … | ||||
| Loans to fisheries (as percent of total loans) | 27.7 | 24.8 | 22.9 | 21.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 10.2 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 83.3 | 83.9 | 86.5 | 86.8 | 87.0 | 90.1 | 90.3 | 90.7 | Feb | |||
| Loans to households (as percent of total loans) 3/ | 27.9 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 25.5 | 26.3 | 20.1 | 23.5 | 24.0 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 1.8 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | Feb | |||
| Loans to businesses (as percent of total loans) | 64.8 | 65.7 | 65.2 | 64.2 | 62.6 | 61.9 | 59.1 | 57.0 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 49.8 | 50.6 | 55.6 | 54.7 | 49.4 | 56.9 | 57.1 | 57.8 | Feb | |||
| Loans to retail and services (as percent of total loans) | 24.8 | 28.6 | 29.4 | 30.0 | 32.7 | 35.5 | 37.7 | 36.6 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 19.5 | 29.5 | 37.0 | 36.1 | 33.7 | 49.9 | 51.6 | 52.9 | Feb | |||
| Loans to manufacturing et. al. (as percent of total loans) | 12.3 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 35.5 | 32.4 | 43.0 | 45.3 | 39.2 | 42.1 | 43.4 | 43.6 | Feb | |||
| Foreign sector (as percent of total loans) | … | … | … | 3.6 | 6.2 | 12.3 | 14.6 | 16.7 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | … | … | … | 99.4 | 78.6 | 91.2 | 96.1 | 96.1 | Feb | |||
| Non-performing loans (NPL) as percent of total loans 1/ 5/ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | |||||
| Total provisions as percent of average loans 1/ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.40 | 0.81 | |||||
| Leverage ratio (equity as percent of total assets) 1/ | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.09 | 7.08 | |||||
| Borrowing entities | ||||||||||||
| Debt-equity ratios | ||||||||||||
| All listed companies (except financial companies) | 1.93 | 2.13 | 2.32 | 2.27 | 1.72 | 1.80 | 1.93 | |||||
| Fisheries companies | 1.77 | 1.94 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | |||||
| Manufacturing companies | 1.66 | 1.28 | 1.52 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.61 | |||||
| IT companies | 2.93 | 2.31 | 1.80 | 1.43 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.28 | |||||
| Retail, services, and construction companies | 2.30 | 2.77 | 1.94 | 1.99 | 1.52 | 1.40 | 2.37 | |||||
| Corporate profitability (EBITDA/turnover) | ||||||||||||
| All listed companies (except financial companies) | 8.2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 11.10 | 12.10 | |||||
| Fisheries companies | 17.8 | 14.7 | 17.4 | 27.1 | 24.0 | 21.30 | 18.10 | |||||
| Manufacturing companies | 9.3 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 11.00 | 18.10 | |||||
| IT companies | 6.1 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 27.2 | 23.40 | 20.20 | |||||
| Retail, services, and construction companies | 4.7 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 10.50 | 27.50 | |||||
| Household indebtedness (debt/disposable income) 6/ | 146.1 | 157.3 | 165.4 | 176.8 | 182.4 | 172.92 | 175.69 | |||||
| Management soundness 1/ | ||||||||||||
| Expense ratios | ||||||||||||
| Operating expenses as percent of net operational revenue | 67.9 | 61.8 | 65.7 | 66.7 | 59.4 | 55.03 | 45.14 | |||||
| Staff costs as percent of net operational revenue | 35.6 | 31.9 | 32.9 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 29.39 | 23.92 | |||||
| Earnings and profitability 1/ 4/ | ||||||||||||
| Return on assets | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |||||
| Return on equity | 13.8 | 18.6 | 10.7 | 13.5 | 18.1 | 22.1 | 30.9 | |||||
| Interest margin (as percent of total revenue) | 56.3 | 53.1 | 54.5 | 63.8 | 51.4 | 44.2 | 40.7 | |||||
| Fees and commissions (as percent total revenue) | 23.5 | 23.7 | 31.0 | 32.6 | 26.2 | 25.0 | 21.3 | |||||
| Value adjustments of other financial operations | 14.7 | 12.4 | -1.24 | -5.80 | 12.1 | 22.7 | 24.7 | |||||
| (as percent of total revenue) | ||||||||||||
| Dividends from shares and other holdings | 3.6 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | |||||
| Other income (as percent of total revenue) | 1.9 | 2.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 9.3 | |||||
| (as percent of total revenue) | ||||||||||||
| Liquidity | ||||||||||||
| Central bank credit to banks (end of period, in ISK billion) | 22.8 | 36.0 | 46.9 | 68.7 | 73.7 | 25.0 | 37.5 | |||||
| Deposits to M3 ratio | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.98 | |||||
| Loans-to-deposits ratio | 1.46 | 1.53 | 2.07 | 2.09 | 1.91 | 1.94 | 2.42 | |||||
| Liquidity ratio (cash and short-term assets/ | ||||||||||||
| demand and short-term liabilities) | … | … | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Measures of secondary market liquidity: | ||||||||||||
| Interbank FX market turnover (Kr. Billions) | 401.8 | 468.0 | 768.0 | 1218.0 | 834.4 | 1185.6 | 949.9 | |||||
| Interbank domestic market turnover (Kr. Billions) | 447.7 | 502.9 | 524.28 | 426.1 | 420.8 | 578.9 | 1073.3 | |||||
| Market-based indicators: | ||||||||||||
| Stock market index (ICEX-15; y-o-y change) | 9.8 | 47.4 | -19.31 | -11.25 | 16.7 | 56.4 | 58.9 | |||||
| Residential housing prices (y-o-y increase) | 7.8 | 22.2 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 23.3 | 32.2 | Feb | |||
| Commercial property prices (y-o-y increase) (between yearly averages) | 19.8 | 25.2 | 19.5 | -7.1 | -12.1 | 14.8 | 8.9 | |||||
| Market capitalization at year-end/GDP | 39.9 | 57.6 | 59.5 | 57.0 | 68.2 | 81.3 | 126.2 | |||||
| Turnover rate (trading/market capitalization) (12 month trading) | 17.3 | 32.4 | 50.0 | 32.4 | 60.8 | 84.0 | 0.7 | |||||
| Credit ratings | ||||||||||||
| Moody’s short-term | P2 | P2 | P1-P2 | P1-P2 | P1-P2 | P1 | P1 | P1 | Apr | |||
| Moody’s long-term | A3 | A3 | A2-A3 | A2-A3 | A2-A3 | A1-A3 | A1-A3 | A1-A2 | Apr | |||
| Fitch short-term | … | … | … | F1 | F1 | F1 | F1 | F1 | Apr | |||
| Fitch long-term | … | … | … | A | A | A | A | A | Apr | |||
| Sovereign yield spreads (spread between yields on | ||||||||||||
| Icelandic and foreign trade-weighted 3-month T-bills) | 3.4 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 6.4 | March | |||
Commercial banks and six largest savings banks. Fisheries Investment Fund and Industrial Loan Fund included 1996–1997. FBA include 1998–1999. Kauphting Inc. included from year 1996. Figures for Islandsbanki include both the banking and insurance part of the corporation.
Inflation adjusted accounting principles were discontinued in year 2002. Results for year 2002 and onwards are therefore in nominal terms but were in real terms before year 2002.
Deposit money banks, adjusted for FBA and Commercial Loan Fund. Kaupthing bank Inc. included from year 2002 and Glitnir included from May 2003.
Item “miscellaneous” also includes individuals’ private business operations. Changed with new loan classification in year 2003. See note above.
Loans for which special provisions have been posted less specific provisions, and other loans which have been interest frozen. Appropriated assets not included.
New loan classification results in a break for this series in the year 2003.
Iceland: Financial Soundness Indicators, 1998–2005
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | as of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital adequacy | ||||||||||||
| Risk-based capital adequacy ratio (CAR) 1/ 4/ | 10.4 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 12.29 | 12.84 | |||||
| CAR excluding subordinated loans | 8.7 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 9.24 | 9.52 | |||||
| Tier 1 capital ratio | 9.9 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 9.69 | 10.38 | |||||
| Asset quality | ||||||||||||
| Credit institutions | ||||||||||||
| Total lending (in ISK billion) 2/ | 385.7 | 475.8 | 601.5 | 704.3 | 740.2 | 920.4 | 1,303.0 | 1,439.5 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 34.4 | 36.5 | 41.6 | 44.3 | 39.6 | 48.9 | 50.9 | 52.1 | Feb | |||
| Sectoral credit concentration | ||||||||||||
| Real estate loans (as percent of total loans) | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | … | … | … | ||||
| Loans to fisheries (as percent of total loans) | 27.7 | 24.8 | 22.9 | 21.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 10.2 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 83.3 | 83.9 | 86.5 | 86.8 | 87.0 | 90.1 | 90.3 | 90.7 | Feb | |||
| Loans to households (as percent of total loans) 3/ | 27.9 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 25.5 | 26.3 | 20.1 | 23.5 | 24.0 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 1.8 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | Feb | |||
| Loans to businesses (as percent of total loans) | 64.8 | 65.7 | 65.2 | 64.2 | 62.6 | 61.9 | 59.1 | 57.0 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 49.8 | 50.6 | 55.6 | 54.7 | 49.4 | 56.9 | 57.1 | 57.8 | Feb | |||
| Loans to retail and services (as percent of total loans) | 24.8 | 28.6 | 29.4 | 30.0 | 32.7 | 35.5 | 37.7 | 36.6 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 19.5 | 29.5 | 37.0 | 36.1 | 33.7 | 49.9 | 51.6 | 52.9 | Feb | |||
| Loans to manufacturing et. al. (as percent of total loans) | 12.3 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | 35.5 | 32.4 | 43.0 | 45.3 | 39.2 | 42.1 | 43.4 | 43.6 | Feb | |||
| Foreign sector (as percent of total loans) | … | … | … | 3.6 | 6.2 | 12.3 | 14.6 | 16.7 | Feb | |||
| thereof foreign currency loans (in percent) | … | … | … | 99.4 | 78.6 | 91.2 | 96.1 | 96.1 | Feb | |||
| Non-performing loans (NPL) as percent of total loans 1/ 5/ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | |||||
| Total provisions as percent of average loans 1/ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.40 | 0.81 | |||||
| Leverage ratio (equity as percent of total assets) 1/ | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.09 | 7.08 | |||||
| Borrowing entities | ||||||||||||
| Debt-equity ratios | ||||||||||||
| All listed companies (except financial companies) | 1.93 | 2.13 | 2.32 | 2.27 | 1.72 | 1.80 | 1.93 | |||||
| Fisheries companies | 1.77 | 1.94 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | |||||
| Manufacturing companies | 1.66 | 1.28 | 1.52 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.61 | |||||
| IT companies | 2.93 | 2.31 | 1.80 | 1.43 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.28 | |||||
| Retail, services, and construction companies | 2.30 | 2.77 | 1.94 | 1.99 | 1.52 | 1.40 | 2.37 | |||||
| Corporate profitability (EBITDA/turnover) | ||||||||||||
| All listed companies (except financial companies) | 8.2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 11.10 | 12.10 | |||||
| Fisheries companies | 17.8 | 14.7 | 17.4 | 27.1 | 24.0 | 21.30 | 18.10 | |||||
| Manufacturing companies | 9.3 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 11.00 | 18.10 | |||||
| IT companies | 6.1 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 27.2 | 23.40 | 20.20 | |||||
| Retail, services, and construction companies | 4.7 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 10.50 | 27.50 | |||||
| Household indebtedness (debt/disposable income) 6/ | 146.1 | 157.3 | 165.4 | 176.8 | 182.4 | 172.92 | 175.69 | |||||
| Management soundness 1/ | ||||||||||||
| Expense ratios | ||||||||||||
| Operating expenses as percent of net operational revenue | 67.9 | 61.8 | 65.7 | 66.7 | 59.4 | 55.03 | 45.14 | |||||
| Staff costs as percent of net operational revenue | 35.6 | 31.9 | 32.9 | 33.8 | 30.9 | 29.39 | 23.92 | |||||
| Earnings and profitability 1/ 4/ | ||||||||||||
| Return on assets | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |||||
| Return on equity | 13.8 | 18.6 | 10.7 | 13.5 | 18.1 | 22.1 | 30.9 | |||||
| Interest margin (as percent of total revenue) | 56.3 | 53.1 | 54.5 | 63.8 | 51.4 | 44.2 | 40.7 | |||||
| Fees and commissions (as percent total revenue) | 23.5 | 23.7 | 31.0 | 32.6 | 26.2 | 25.0 | 21.3 | |||||
| Value adjustments of other financial operations | 14.7 | 12.4 | -1.24 | -5.80 | 12.1 | 22.7 | 24.7 | |||||
| (as percent of total revenue) | ||||||||||||
| Dividends from shares and other holdings | 3.6 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | |||||
| Other income (as percent of total revenue) | 1.9 | 2.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 9.3 | |||||
| (as percent of total revenue) | ||||||||||||
| Liquidity | ||||||||||||
| Central bank credit to banks (end of period, in ISK billion) | 22.8 | 36.0 | 46.9 | 68.7 | 73.7 | 25.0 | 37.5 | |||||
| Deposits to M3 ratio | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.98 | |||||
| Loans-to-deposits ratio | 1.46 | 1.53 | 2.07 | 2.09 | 1.91 | 1.94 | 2.42 | |||||
| Liquidity ratio (cash and short-term assets/ | ||||||||||||
| demand and short-term liabilities) | … | … | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Measures of secondary market liquidity: | ||||||||||||
| Interbank FX market turnover (Kr. Billions) | 401.8 | 468.0 | 768.0 | 1218.0 | 834.4 | 1185.6 | 949.9 | |||||
| Interbank domestic market turnover (Kr. Billions) | 447.7 | 502.9 | 524.28 | 426.1 | 420.8 | 578.9 | 1073.3 | |||||
| Market-based indicators: | ||||||||||||
| Stock market index (ICEX-15; y-o-y change) | 9.8 | 47.4 | -19.31 | -11.25 | 16.7 | 56.4 | 58.9 | |||||
| Residential housing prices (y-o-y increase) | 7.8 | 22.2 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 23.3 | 32.2 | Feb | |||
| Commercial property prices (y-o-y increase) (between yearly averages) | 19.8 | 25.2 | 19.5 | -7.1 | -12.1 | 14.8 | 8.9 | |||||
| Market capitalization at year-end/GDP | 39.9 | 57.6 | 59.5 | 57.0 | 68.2 | 81.3 | 126.2 | |||||
| Turnover rate (trading/market capitalization) (12 month trading) | 17.3 | 32.4 | 50.0 | 32.4 | 60.8 | 84.0 | 0.7 | |||||
| Credit ratings | ||||||||||||
| Moody’s short-term | P2 | P2 | P1-P2 | P1-P2 | P1-P2 | P1 | P1 | P1 | Apr | |||
| Moody’s long-term | A3 | A3 | A2-A3 | A2-A3 | A2-A3 | A1-A3 | A1-A3 | A1-A2 | Apr | |||
| Fitch short-term | … | … | … | F1 | F1 | F1 | F1 | F1 | Apr | |||
| Fitch long-term | … | … | … | A | A | A | A | A | Apr | |||
| Sovereign yield spreads (spread between yields on | ||||||||||||
| Icelandic and foreign trade-weighted 3-month T-bills) | 3.4 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 6.4 | March | |||
Commercial banks and six largest savings banks. Fisheries Investment Fund and Industrial Loan Fund included 1996–1997. FBA include 1998–1999. Kauphting Inc. included from year 1996. Figures for Islandsbanki include both the banking and insurance part of the corporation.
Inflation adjusted accounting principles were discontinued in year 2002. Results for year 2002 and onwards are therefore in nominal terms but were in real terms before year 2002.
Deposit money banks, adjusted for FBA and Commercial Loan Fund. Kaupthing bank Inc. included from year 2002 and Glitnir included from May 2003.
Item “miscellaneous” also includes individuals’ private business operations. Changed with new loan classification in year 2003. See note above.
Loans for which special provisions have been posted less specific provisions, and other loans which have been interest frozen. Appropriated assets not included.
New loan classification results in a break for this series in the year 2003.
Iceland. Medium-term Scenario, 2003–10
(Percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
Contributions to growth
In percent of GDP
In percent of potential output
Iceland. Medium-term Scenario, 2003–10
(Percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | |
| Real domestic demand | 7.0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 1.6 | -4.6 | -1.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |
| Private consumption | 5.8 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 | |
| Public consumption | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Fixed investment | 20.5 | 21.0 | 22.2 | -5.5 | -23.4 | -12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | |
| Change in stocks 1/ | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Net exports 1/ | -3.3 | -2.4 | -5.7 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | |
| Exports | 1.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 3.0 | |
| Imports | 10.7 | 14.2 | 18.0 | 1.0 | -7.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Current account 2/ | -5.0 | -8.4 | -13.0 | -12.0 | -7.7 | -6.4 | -6.4 | -6.7 | |
| Inflation | |||||||||
| Consumer Prices | 2.1 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Labor market | |||||||||
| Employment | -0.5 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.0 | |
| Average unemployment rate | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Public finance | |||||||||
| General government balance 2/ | -1.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | -0.7 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -1.0 | |
| General government structural balance | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.9 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -1.0 | |
| General government gross debt 2/ | 41.6 | 35.9 | 31.4 | 28.2 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 25.9 | 25.6 | |
| Output gap 3/ | -1.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | |
Contributions to growth
In percent of GDP
In percent of potential output
Iceland. Medium-term Scenario, 2003–10
(Percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | |
| Real domestic demand | 7.0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 1.6 | -4.6 | -1.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |
| Private consumption | 5.8 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 | |
| Public consumption | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Fixed investment | 20.5 | 21.0 | 22.2 | -5.5 | -23.4 | -12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | |
| Change in stocks 1/ | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Net exports 1/ | -3.3 | -2.4 | -5.7 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | |
| Exports | 1.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 3.0 | |
| Imports | 10.7 | 14.2 | 18.0 | 1.0 | -7.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Current account 2/ | -5.0 | -8.4 | -13.0 | -12.0 | -7.7 | -6.4 | -6.4 | -6.7 | |
| Inflation | |||||||||
| Consumer Prices | 2.1 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Labor market | |||||||||
| Employment | -0.5 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.0 | |
| Average unemployment rate | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Public finance | |||||||||
| General government balance 2/ | -1.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | -0.7 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -1.0 | |
| General government structural balance | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.9 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -1.0 | |
| General government gross debt 2/ | 41.6 | 35.9 | 31.4 | 28.2 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 25.9 | 25.6 | |
| Output gap 3/ | -1.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | |
Contributions to growth
In percent of GDP
In percent of potential output
Iceland: Balance of Payments, 1999–2004
Iceland: Balance of Payments, 1999–2004
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions of krona) | |||||||||
| Current Account | -42,833 | -69,288 | -33,729 | 10,754 | -40,330 | -73,929 | |||
| Balance on Goods | -22,382 | -37,480 | -5,936 | 14,082 | -15,900 | -36,548 | |||
| Merchandise exports f.o.b. | 144,928 | 149,272 | 196,582 | 204,303 | 182,580 | 202,373 | |||
| Merchandise imports f.o.b. | -167,310 | -186,752 | -202,518 | -190,221 | -198,480 | -238,921 | |||
| Balance on Services | -6,934 | -11,637 | -1,549 | -328 | -9,263 | -14,615 | |||
| Exports of services, total | 67,238 | 80,248 | 102,830 | 101,561 | 105,534 | 113,730 | |||
| Imports of services, total | -74,172 | -91,885 | -104,379 | -101,889 | -114,797 | -128,345 | |||
| Balance on Income | -12,792 | -19,409 | -25,285 | -4,170 | -14,001 | -21,586 | |||
| Receipts | 9,328 | 11,603 | 16,914 | 27,163 | 28,419 | 41,197 | |||
| Expenditures | -22,120 | -31,012 | -42,199 | -31,333 | -42,420 | -62,783 | |||
| Current transfer, net | -725 | -762 | -959 | 1,170 | -1,166 | -1,180 | |||
| Capital and Financial Account | 56,289 | 75,671 | 19,306 | 16 | 16,485 | 135,629 | |||
| Capital transfer, net | -57 | -222 | 362 | -122 | -402 | -234 | |||
| Financial Account | 56,346 | 75,893 | 18,944 | 138 | 16,887 | 135,863 | |||
| Direct investment, net | -4,094 | -17,534 | -16,449 | -21,230 | -3,942 | -165,374 | |||
| Abroad | -8,918 | -30,966 | -33,737 | -29,570 | -28,373 | -192,970 | |||
| In Iceland | 4,824 | 13,432 | 17,288 | 8,340 | 24,431 | 27,596 | |||
| Portfolio investment, net | 41,658 | 43,152 | 61,522 | 21,986 | 228,000 | 507,488 | |||
| Assets | -32,392 | -50,369 | -5,643 | -30,017 | -45,320 | -75,688 | |||
| Liabilities | 74,050 | 93,521 | 67,165 | 52,003 | 273,320 | 583,176 | |||
| Other investment, net | 23,962 | 44,574 | -30,948 | 5,046 | -183,770 | -192,021 | |||
| Reserve assets | -5,346 | 5,794 | 4,819 | -5,664 | -23,401 | -14,230 | |||
| Net errors and omissions | -13,456 | -6,383 | 14,423 | -10,770 | 23,845 | -61,700 | |||
| (In percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Current Account | -7.0 | -10.4 | -4.5 | 1.4 | -5.0 | -8.4 | |||
| Balance on Goods | -3.6 | -5.6 | -0.8 | 1.8 | -2.0 | -4.1 | |||
| Merchandise exports f.o.b. | 23.6 | 22.3 | 26.2 | 26.1 | 22.5 | 22.9 | |||
| Merchandise imports f.o.b. | -27.2 | -27.9 | -27.0 | -24.3 | -24.5 | -27.0 | |||
| Balance on Services | -1.1 | -1.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -1.7 | |||
| Exports of services, total | 10.9 | 12.0 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | |||
| Imports of services, total | -12.1 | -13.7 | -13.9 | -13.0 | -14.2 | -14.5 | |||
| Balance on Income | -2.1 | -2.9 | -3.4 | -0.5 | -1.7 | -2.4 | |||
| Receipts | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.7 | |||
| Expenditures | -3.6 | -4.6 | -5.6 | -4.0 | -5.2 | -7.1 | |||
| Current transfer, net | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |||
| Capital and Financial Account | 9.2 | 11.3 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 15.3 | |||
| Capital transfer, net | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Financial Account | 9.2 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 15.4 | |||
| Direct investment, net | -0.7 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -0.5 | -18.7 | |||
| Abroad | -1.4 | -4.6 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -21.8 | |||
| In Iceland | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | |||
| Portfolio investment, net | 6.8 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 28.1 | 57.3 | |||
| Assets | -5.3 | -7.5 | -0.8 | -3.8 | -5.6 | -8.6 | |||
| Liabilities | 12.0 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 33.7 | 65.9 | |||
| Other investment, net | 3.9 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 0.6 | -22.7 | -21.7 | |||
| Reserve assets | -0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -2.9 | -1.6 | |||
| Net errors and omissions | -2.2 | -1.0 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 2.9 | -7.0 | |||
Iceland: Balance of Payments, 1999–2004
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions of krona) | |||||||||
| Current Account | -42,833 | -69,288 | -33,729 | 10,754 | -40,330 | -73,929 | |||
| Balance on Goods | -22,382 | -37,480 | -5,936 | 14,082 | -15,900 | -36,548 | |||
| Merchandise exports f.o.b. | 144,928 | 149,272 | 196,582 | 204,303 | 182,580 | 202,373 | |||
| Merchandise imports f.o.b. | -167,310 | -186,752 | -202,518 | -190,221 | -198,480 | -238,921 | |||
| Balance on Services | -6,934 | -11,637 | -1,549 | -328 | -9,263 | -14,615 | |||
| Exports of services, total | 67,238 | 80,248 | 102,830 | 101,561 | 105,534 | 113,730 | |||
| Imports of services, total | -74,172 | -91,885 | -104,379 | -101,889 | -114,797 | -128,345 | |||
| Balance on Income | -12,792 | -19,409 | -25,285 | -4,170 | -14,001 | -21,586 | |||
| Receipts | 9,328 | 11,603 | 16,914 | 27,163 | 28,419 | 41,197 | |||
| Expenditures | -22,120 | -31,012 | -42,199 | -31,333 | -42,420 | -62,783 | |||
| Current transfer, net | -725 | -762 | -959 | 1,170 | -1,166 | -1,180 | |||
| Capital and Financial Account | 56,289 | 75,671 | 19,306 | 16 | 16,485 | 135,629 | |||
| Capital transfer, net | -57 | -222 | 362 | -122 | -402 | -234 | |||
| Financial Account | 56,346 | 75,893 | 18,944 | 138 | 16,887 | 135,863 | |||
| Direct investment, net | -4,094 | -17,534 | -16,449 | -21,230 | -3,942 | -165,374 | |||
| Abroad | -8,918 | -30,966 | -33,737 | -29,570 | -28,373 | -192,970 | |||
| In Iceland | 4,824 | 13,432 | 17,288 | 8,340 | 24,431 | 27,596 | |||
| Portfolio investment, net | 41,658 | 43,152 | 61,522 | 21,986 | 228,000 | 507,488 | |||
| Assets | -32,392 | -50,369 | -5,643 | -30,017 | -45,320 | -75,688 | |||
| Liabilities | 74,050 | 93,521 | 67,165 | 52,003 | 273,320 | 583,176 | |||
| Other investment, net | 23,962 | 44,574 | -30,948 | 5,046 | -183,770 | -192,021 | |||
| Reserve assets | -5,346 | 5,794 | 4,819 | -5,664 | -23,401 | -14,230 | |||
| Net errors and omissions | -13,456 | -6,383 | 14,423 | -10,770 | 23,845 | -61,700 | |||
| (In percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Current Account | -7.0 | -10.4 | -4.5 | 1.4 | -5.0 | -8.4 | |||
| Balance on Goods | -3.6 | -5.6 | -0.8 | 1.8 | -2.0 | -4.1 | |||
| Merchandise exports f.o.b. | 23.6 | 22.3 | 26.2 | 26.1 | 22.5 | 22.9 | |||
| Merchandise imports f.o.b. | -27.2 | -27.9 | -27.0 | -24.3 | -24.5 | -27.0 | |||
| Balance on Services | -1.1 | -1.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -1.7 | |||
| Exports of services, total | 10.9 | 12.0 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | |||
| Imports of services, total | -12.1 | -13.7 | -13.9 | -13.0 | -14.2 | -14.5 | |||
| Balance on Income | -2.1 | -2.9 | -3.4 | -0.5 | -1.7 | -2.4 | |||
| Receipts | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.7 | |||
| Expenditures | -3.6 | -4.6 | -5.6 | -4.0 | -5.2 | -7.1 | |||
| Current transfer, net | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |||
| Capital and Financial Account | 9.2 | 11.3 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 15.3 | |||
| Capital transfer, net | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Financial Account | 9.2 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 15.4 | |||
| Direct investment, net | -0.7 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -0.5 | -18.7 | |||
| Abroad | -1.4 | -4.6 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -21.8 | |||
| In Iceland | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | |||
| Portfolio investment, net | 6.8 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 28.1 | 57.3 | |||
| Assets | -5.3 | -7.5 | -0.8 | -3.8 | -5.6 | -8.6 | |||
| Liabilities | 12.0 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 33.7 | 65.9 | |||
| Other investment, net | 3.9 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 0.6 | -22.7 | -21.7 | |||
| Reserve assets | -0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -2.9 | -1.6 | |||
| Net errors and omissions | -2.2 | -1.0 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 2.9 | -7.0 | |||
Attached are updated staff report tables and the background section of the PIN reflecting the latest available data and the new projections.
