Front Matter

Front Matter Page

© 2005 International Monetary Fund

October 2005

IMF Country Report No. 05/359

Zimbabwe: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Zimbabwe was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on August 4, 2005. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Zimbabwe or the Executive Board of the IMF.

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

ZIMBABWE

Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Prepared by a staff team consisting of Sharmini Coorey (head), Paul Heytens, Sònia Muñoz and Sanket Mohapatra (all AFR), Michael Andrews and Jennifer Mbabazi-Moyo (both MFD), and Oleksiy Ivaschenko (World Bank)

Approved by African Department

August 4, 2005

Contents

  • I. Recent Trends in Poverty and Social Indicators

  • Text Tables

  • I. 1. Summary of Progress in Achieving Millenium Development Goals

  • II. Land Reform, Agricultural Policies, and Outcomes

    • A. Land Reform

    • B. Recent Performance in Agriculture

    • C. Food Security

    • D. Agricultural Growth and Food Security: A Way Forward

  • III. Fiscal Deficits and Inflation

    • A. First Phase: Mounting Deficits and High Inflation

    • B. Second Phase (2001-03): Accelerating Inflation and a Decline in Deficits

    • C. Third Phase (2004): Shift in the Financing of Deficit and Fall in Inflation

    • D. Conclusions

  • Figures

  • III. 1. Fiscal Deficits and Inflation

    • 2. Central Government Finances

    • 3. Contributions to Reserve Money Growth

    • 4. Contributions to Broad Money Growth

    • 5. Shift in Financing of Deficit

  • IV. High Inflation and Money Demand

    • A. Stylized Facts

    • B. Estimating a Money Demand Equation

    • C. Influence on Exogenous Factors on Velocity Movements

    • D. Conclusions

  • Figures

  • IV. 1. Within-sample Forecast

    • 2. Recursive Estimation

    • 3. Chow Tests

  • Text Tables

  • IV. 1. Unit-root Tests

    • 2. Cointegrating Tests

    • 3. Cointegrating Vector

    • 4. Diagnostic Tests

  • V. Estimating the Short Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

    • A. Methodology

    • B. Data and Results

    • C. Conclusions

  • Figures

  • V. 1. Exchange Rates and CPI

    • 2. Percentage Deviation from Short Run Equilibrium

  • Text Tables

  • V. 1. Equilibrium Exchange Rate for External Balance

  • VI. Export Performance: the Impact of the Parallel Market and Governance Factors

    • A. Export Performance in Zimbabwe

    • B. Analysis and Determinants of Export Behaviour

    • C. Comparative Measures of Competitiveness

    • D. Conclusions

  • Text Tables

  • VI. 1. Business Climate, 2004

  • VII. The Soundness of the Zimbabwe Banking System

    • A. Structure of the Financial System

    • B. Weaknesses in the Banking Sector in 2003-04

    • C. Addressing the Banking Sector Problems

    • D. Impact of Exchange Rate Regime and Interest Rate Policies

    • E. Banking Sector Soundness and Resilience

    • F. Deposit Insurance

    • G. Conclusions

  • Figures

  • VII. 1. RBZ Liquidity Support to Banks

    • 2. Bank Dependence on RBZ Funding

    • 3. Commercial Bank Lending Rates

  • Text Tables

  • VII. 1. Financial System Structure

    • 2. Real Costs of Bank Restructuring

    • 3. Financial Soundness Indicators, 1999-2004

  • Appendices

  • VII. 1 Deposit-Taking Institutions (end-March 2005)

    • 2 Banks Placed in Curatorship in 2004

    • 3 Balance Sheet Structure (end-March 2005)

    • 4 Stress Tests

  • Statistical Appendix Tables

  • 1. Expenditure on GDP, 1998-2003

  • 2. Gross Domestic Product, 1998-2004

  • 3. Agricultural Crop Production, 1998-2004

  • 4. Prices of Marketed Agricultural Crops, 1997/98-2003/04

  • 5. Area Under Cultivation for Major Crops, 1998-2004

  • 6. Volume and Value of Livestock Slaughtering and Milk Production, 1998-2004

  • 7. Livestock in Communal and Commercial Farming Areas 1998-2003

  • 8. Volume of Manufacturing Output, 1998-2004

  • 9. Mineral Production, 1998-2004

  • 10. Construction and Retail Trade, 1998-2004

  • 11. Electrical Energy Produced and Distributed 1998-2004

  • 12. Petroleum Products, 1998-2005

  • 13. Consumer Price Index, 1998-2005

  • 14. Consumer Price Index, December 2003-May 2005

  • 15. Employment and Employment Earnings 1998-2004

  • 16. Central Government Operations, 1999-2004

  • 17. Detailed Central Government Revenue, 1999-2004

  • 18. Detailed Central Government Expenditure and Net Lending, 1999-2004

  • 19. Expenditure and Repayments by Ministries 1999-2003

  • 20. Civil Service Employment Budgeted Posts, 1999-2003

  • 21. Central Government Debt and Debt-Service Payments, 1999-2004

  • 22. Money Supply, 1998-2004.

  • 23. Monetary Survey, 1998-2004

  • 24. Assets and Liabilities of Monetary Authorities, 1998-2004

  • 25. Consolidated Accounts of Deposit Money Banks and Other Banking Institutions, 1998-2004

  • 26. Required Reserves and Liquid Asset Ratios, 1998-2004

  • 27. Selected Interest Rates, 1998-2004

  • 28. Sectoral Analysis of Commercial Banks’ Loans and Advances, 1998-2004

  • 29. Sectoral Analysis of Merchant Banks’ Loans and Advances, 1998-2004

  • 30. Nonbank Financial Institutions’Assets, 1998-2004

  • 31. Balance of Payments, 1998-2004

  • 32. External Trade Indicators, 1998-2004

  • 33. Exports by Commodity, 1998-2004

  • 34. Direction of Export Trade, 1998-2004

  • 35. Imports by Principal Commodities, 1998-2004

  • 36. Direction of Import Trade, 1998-2004

  • 37. International Reserves, 1998-2004

  • 38. External Debt Outstanding by Creditors, 1998-2004

  • 39. Summary of the Tax System as of June 2005