Front Matter Page
© 2005 International Monetary Fund
September 2005
IMF Country Report No. 05/321
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper for Republic of Madagascar was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 18, 2005. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Republic of Madagascar or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Front Matter Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR
Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Prepared by a staff team consisting of Ambroise Fayolle (head), Koffie Nassar, Laurence Allain and Samir Jahjah (all AFR), and Ritha Khemani (PDR)
Approved by African Department
May 18, 2005
Contents
Basic Data
I. Introduction
II. Determinants of Inflation in Madagascar
A. Introduction
B. Background
C. Model Specification
D. Data, Unit Root Tests, And Cointegration Analysis
E. Unit Root Tests
F. Cointegration Analysis
G. Determinants of Inflation
H. Impulse Response Analysis
Text Tables
II.1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Statistics for Unit Root Tests
II.2. Cointegration Analysis
II.3. Properties of VAR Residuals
II.4. Coefficient Estimates of the Error-Correction Inflation Equation
II.5 FIML Estimates of the Error-Correction System
Figures
II.1. Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) and Inflation, 1970–2004
II.2. Net Bank Credit to Government and Inflation, 1970–2004
II.3. Broad Money Growth and Inflation, 1970–2004
II.4. Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation, 1970–2004
II.5. Velocity and Inflation, 1970–2004
II.6. Real GDP Growth and Inflation, 1970–2004
II.7. Prices, Income, Money, Exchange Rate, and Foreign Interest Rates, 1982–2004
II.8. Actual and Fitted Inflation, 1983–2004
II.9. Stability Tests of the Restricted Inflation Equation
II.10. Impulse Response in the Full Model
II.11. Cumulative Impulse Response in the Full Model
III. Competitiveness in Madagascar: An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate
A. Introduction
B. Data and Methodology
C. Results
Text Tables
III.1. Unit Root Tests
III.2. OLS Estimates of a Long-Run Relationship
III.3. OLS Estimates of deviations from the long-run REER equilibrium
Figures
III.1. Fundamental Effective Exchange Rate (FEER) and the Real Effective
III.2. Behavioral and Fundamental Real Effective Exchange Rate
III.3. Behavioral and Fundamental Real Effective Exchange Rate (with tax exemption)
III.4. BEER and the AGOA Simulation of an Expiry of AGOA in 2004
IV. Competitiveness and Export Performance in Madagascar
A. Introduction
B. Some Indicators of Competitiveness
C. Export Performance in Madagascar
D. Concluding Comments
Text Tables
IV.1. Some Wage and Non-Wage Competitiveness Indicators
IV.2. Growth Competitiveness Index (GCI) 2004 Comparison with Comesa Partners
IV.3. Business Competitiveness Index (BCI) 2004 Comparison with Comesa Partners
IV.4. Madagascar Structure of Exports
IV.5. Selected Products: Export Performance
IV.6. Exports of Selected Products
IV.7. Geographical of Exports 2003
IV.8. Geographical of Exports 1990
IV.9. World Market Shares (vanilla, cloves, shellfish)
IV.10.Product Diversification in Madagascar
IV.11.Enterprises Operating in EPZs
IV.12.Exports from the Export Processing Zones (EPZs): By product
IV.13. AGO A Imports
IV.14.United States: Clothing Imports from Madagascar
IV.15.OECD Country Imports of Clothing from Madagascar
Appendices
Summary of the Tax System, January 2005
II. Statistical Appendix Tables :
1. Growth and Structure of GDP, 1999–2004
2. Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1984 Prices, 1999–2004
3. Supply and Use of Resources at Current Prices, 1999–2004
4. Production of Rice and Other Food Crops, 1999–2004
5. Retail Prices of Ordinary Rice, 2001–2004
6. Production of Major Cash Crops, 1999–2004
7. Index of Industrial Production, Excluding the Export Processing Zone, 2000-04
8. Economic Activities of Manufacturing Enterprises in the Export Processing Zone (EPZ), 1999–2004
9. Number of Enterprises with Operating Permits Under the Export Processing Zone Regime, 1999–2004
10. Production and Export of Major Minerals, 1999–2003
11. Tourism Indicators, 1999–2004 Prel
12. Production and Consumption of Electricity, 1999–2004
13. Prices of Petroleum Products, 1999–2004 (In Ariary per liter)
14. Minimum and Maximum Monthly Wages, 1994–2004 (In Ariary)
15. Consumer Price Index by Product, 2002-04
16. Central Government Financial Operations, 1999–2004 (In billions of Ariary)
17. Central Government Fiscal Indicators, 1999–2004
18. Budgetary Revenue, 1999–2004
19. Current Budgetary Expenditure, 1999–2004
20. Central Government Capital Expenditure, 1999–2004
21. Central Government Personnel Expenditure and Number of Civil Servants, 1999–2004
22. Structure and Adjustment of Public Sector Salaries, 1997–2004
23. Monetary Survey, 1999–2004
24. Summary Accounts of the Central Bank, 1999–2004
25. Summary Accounts of Commercial Banks, 1999–2004
26. Foreign Reserve Assets and Liabilities of the Central Bank, 1999–2004
27. Structure of Market Interest Rates, 2000–2004
28. Structure of Commercial Bank Interest Rates, 2000-04
29. Issues and Outstandings of Treasury Bills, 2000-04
30. Summary Balance of Payments, 1999–2004
31. Composition of Exports, f.o.b., 1999–2004
32. Composition of Imports, c.i.f., 1999–2004
33. Direction of Trade, 1999–2003
34. Balance of Services, 1999–2004
35. Stock of External Debt, 1999–2004
Figures
IV.1. Monthly Manufacturing Wages