Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2004, National Accounts of the Republic of Kazakhstan (statistical compedium), 1998–2002.
Gurvich, E.T., 2004, “A Macroeconomic Estimate of the Role of the Russian Oil-Gas Sector” (in Russian), Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 10.
International Monetary Fund, 2003, Republic of Kazakhstan-Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix, IMF Country Report No. 03/211.
Oomes N., and O. Dynnikova, 2005, “The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?,” IMF, Draft Working Paper.
Prepared by Anna Ter-Martirosyan.
Difficulties in disaggregating oil and non-oil GDP are present, to varying degrees, in most oil-producing economies.
Other input sectors for oil extraction include trade, real estate, and financial services. The metallurgical industry also provides inputs to the oil sector. The “broad” measure of the oil sector excludes value-added in oil refining, which is primary used for domestic consumption and relatively insignificant in comparison to oil extraction and accounts for about 5 percent of oil-related output.
Other statistical methods, including linear and exponential filtering, yield very similar results. Sensitivity of the results was also checked by varying the sample period to 1999–2004.
Due to unavailability of data on employment and capital stock in the oil sector, non-oil output for this exercise was defined as the total output less value added in the mining sector. The average non-oil growth rate under this definition was 7.1 percent, somewhat lower than the 8 percent under the adjusted “broad” definition noted above, likely on account of the exclusion of metals production from the non-oil sector. Elasticity α and depreciation rate δ are assumed to be 0.5 and 5 percent, respectively, but alternative calculations for α€ [0.3-0.7] and δ€ [3-10] percent were also carried out. Labor data were taken as employment in the non-mining sector. Investment data from the National Statistical Agency of Kazakhstan were used to construct a capital stock series. The capital stock data from Chapter II, IMF, Republic of Kazakhstan—Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix (IMF Country Report No. 03/211) were used for the initial period.
Loukianova and Unigovskaya (2004) found the average TFP growth rate for seven CIS countries in 1998–2000 was 4.1 percent and that the average growth rates for labor and capital were 0.6 and minus 0.3 percent. For the non-oil sector in Kazakhstan, based on comparable assumptions for the depreciation rate over the same sample period (1999–2001) as Loukianova and Unigovskaya, the average TFP growth is estimated by staff at 3.4 percent, and the average growth rates for labor and capital at 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
The unemployment rate declined from 12.8 percent in 2000 to 8.4 percent in 2004.
The share of manufacturing in total employment has also declined in other transition economies, possibly reflecting an excessively large industrial structure at the start of the transition process.
The large increase in agricultural employment in 2000 is partly due to better measurement of the informal economy.
Labor productivity is defined as output (measured in constant 1999 prices) per worker.