Samoa: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
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International Monetary Fund
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Publication Date:
29 Jun 2005
eISBN:
9781451840728
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remittance; remittance flow; GDP; Samoa; remittances vis-à-vis; channeling remittance; Samoa cope; expatriate Samoan; macroeconomic determinants of remittance flow; Real exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Currencies; impact of remittance
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This Selected Issues paper on Samoa reports that remittances are the main source of foreign exchange to the Samoan economy. In addition to remittances, travel credits also play an important role in the economy. Official transfers are also significant, and should remain an important source of balance-of-payments support over the medium term. Remittances are relatively more stable when measured in the remitting country’s currency compared with talas. Remittance receipts account for a similar share of income across different household income groups, except for the richest one.

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper on Samoa reports that remittances are the main source of foreign exchange to the Samoan economy. In addition to remittances, travel credits also play an important role in the economy. Official transfers are also significant, and should remain an important source of balance-of-payments support over the medium term. Remittances are relatively more stable when measured in the remitting country’s currency compared with talas. Remittance receipts account for a similar share of income across different household income groups, except for the richest one.

I. The Importance and Determinants of International Remittances to Samoa1

A. Introduction

1. Remittances are extremely important to Samoa. There are more Samoans residing abroad than in Samoa itself.2 Their remittances amount to about 20 percent of GDP, which is among the highest ratios observed in the world. Historically, remittances have been a very stable source of balance of payments flows, and without them Samoa’s current account deficit would likely be unsustainable. This paper focuses on the effects of remittances on the Samoan economy and on the macroeconomic determinants of those flows. It is organized as follows: Section B describes the impact of remittances on Samoa. Section C presents an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows to Samoa. Finally Section D concludes. An overview of the empirical literature on the economic impact of remittances is provided in Box I.1.

A01ufig01

15 Largest Recipients of Remittances as a Share of GDP

(1990–2003 Average)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 221; 10.5089/9781451840728.002.A001

Source: The World Economic Outlook, Spring 2005, Chapter II

B. The Economic Impact of Remittances on Samoa

2. Remittances are the main source of foreign exchange to the Samoan economy. In addition to remittances, travel credits (including tourism) also play an important role in the economy. Official transfers are also significant, and should remain an important source of balance of payments support over the medium term. However, if Samoa’s per capita income continues to grow at the current pace, it may well graduate from its LDC status sooner which will reduce the flow of official transfers. Exports of goods are small compared to the other components.3 Thus, in the absence of remittances, Samoa’s current account deficit is likely to become unsustainable (Table I.1).

Table I.1.

Current Account Balance with and without Remittances

(In percent of GDP)

article image
Sources: Samoan authorities and staff calculations.
A01ufig02

Sources of Foreign Exchange

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 221; 10.5089/9781451840728.002.A001

Sources: Samoan authorities and staff calculations

3. Remittance flows are relatively stable. Samoans living overseas maintain very strong ties with their families, villages and churches, which remain strong even among second-generation migrants. That, combined with the continuing flows of new migrants, New Zealand alone accepts 1,100 Samoans each year, ensures the reliability of remittances. The ratio of remittances to GDP has been generally stable through 2001, before increasing in the last few years. The volatility of remittances (around their trend) is comparable to that of other balance of payments inflows. In fact, remittances are slightly more stable than exports of goods and services (Table I.2). The data collected on remittances is constructed so as to capture not only transfers through the financial system, but also cash and in-kind gifts brought by visiting Samoans living overseas.4

Table I.2:

Mean and Standard Deviation of Yearly Growth in Remittances, Exports of Goods and Services, and GDP from 1995 to 2004

(In percent)

article image
Sources: Samoan authorities, World Economic Outlook and staff estimates.
A01ufig03

Remittances as a Share of GDP

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 221; 10.5089/9781451840728.002.A001

Sources: Samoan authorities data and staff calculations.

4. Remittances are relatively more stable when measured in the remitting country’s currency compared to talas. This suggests some degree of “stickiness” in remittances with respect to the remitting country’s currency. Table I.3 shows the average and standard deviation of yearly changes in remittances when measured in talas or in the remitting country’s currency. However, the difference in volatility is relatively small, suggesting that other factors play an important role in addition to changes in the exchange rate.

Table I.3.

Yearly Growth and Volatility of Remittances by Currency of Measurement

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Sources: Samoan authorities data and staff calculations.

5. Remittances can affect GDP growth and vice-versa. Given the size of remittances vis-à-vis the rest of the Samoan economy, they can influence GDP growth through their effect on domestic demand (particularly consumption). The causality can also run from GDP growth to remittances. Remittance growth should be higher during recessions and lower during expansions if the Samoans living overseas are helping receiving households “insure” against those shocks. The economic cycle can also affect remittances through investment channels, causing remittances to increase during economic expansions when there are more investment opportunities.

6. Remittance receipts account for a similar share of income across different household income groups, except for the richest one. This implies some proportional relationship between remittance receipts and other household income in Samoa (except for the richest income group). The causality between remittances and household income can go in both directions. Richer households can provide their children with more opportunities (for example, more schooling), which can eventually translate into higher remittances. In turn, remittances can help the receiving household finance investment opportunities which can lead to higher income. Anecdotal evidence suggests that remittances in Samoa tend to finance consumption, so the effect of higher initial income on future remittances is likely to be the strongest. In fact, the main investment financed by remittances in Samoa is education (schooling), which should increase the future income of young members of the household, but is not likely to have an immediate effect on the current household income.

Table I.4

Share of Income from Remittances and Share of Total Remittances by Household Income Range

(in 1997 talas and shares in percent)

article image
Source: 1997 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and staff calculations.

7. “Exporting” some skilled workers may have a positive net impact on Samoa’s economy, due to the larger remittances they can send. Given the strong attachment that expatriate Samoans retain to their extended families and the limited domestic private sector job opportunities, it is possible that some high-skill migration is actually beneficial to Samoa. “Exporting” human capital (as opposed to just raw labor) may well provide higher returns than investment in some of the traditional exports which are subject to terms of trade shocks and long-term cycles. Moreover, more skilled expatriates can help build networks that facilitate international trade and investment in Samoa. In fact, some observers have attributed China’s success in integrating itself into the world economy partly due to the networks created by the Chinese diaspora. Tapping the potential network benefits of its expatriate community should be part of Samoa’s development strategy.

8. The authorities should consider policies to facilitate and encourage remittances. Efforts should be made to help minimize transaction costs and encourage the use of the formal financial sector for channeling remittances. This would contribute to financial development. However, given that there are no major barriers to entry or excessively burdensome regulations for sending remittances to Samoa, it is not clear whether any policy initiative would lead to significant increases in remittance flows.

C. Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances to Samoa

9. In addition to growth in Samoa, remittance flows could also be influenced by growth in the remitting countries and changes in the exchange rate. Higher growth in the countries where Samoans overseas work can increase their earning opportunities, allowing them to send more transfers to their relatives in Samoa. Changes in the real exchange rate will also have an impact. A depreciated tala allows Samoan overseas workers to “buy” more consumption for their relatives for each unit of their own consumption that is forsaken. This substitution effect causes them to remit more following a real depreciation of the tala. They may also advance future planned remittances in order to take advantage of a favorable exchange rate. However, if the remitting Samoans target a given level of consumption for their relatives, they can do this with fewer remittances following a depreciation of the tala.

10. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that the exchange rate, growth in both the remitting country and Samoa help explain the flow of remittances. We present results for remittances from Australia, New Zealand and the United States, which are the main originating countries for remittance flows. In order to overcome small-sample problems, we also estimated a pooled regression of these three countries. Table I.5 presents regression estimates of real changes in remittance flows (measured in talas) on its various determinants and Table I.6 presents the estimated error-correction model for remittances.5 6 Although the results of the individual countrylevel regressions provide less clear-cut interpretation of the key determinants of remittance flows (probably reflecting small sample problems), the pooled regression estimates are relatively more robust and generally in accord with theoretical priors. Specifically, our empirical results indicate that:

  • Changes in the real exchange rate have a statistically significant effect on remittances measured in tala terms, as one would expect. Based on our preferred specification, a 1 percent real depreciation of the tala would increase remittances by 1.2 percent in tala terms. A “mechanical” one-for-one relationship could not be rejected at any reasonable confidencelevel (for example, a relationship where remittances are determined in the remitting currency, and their tala value moves one-for-one with the real exchange rate).

  • Growth in the remitting country has a strong positive and statistically significant effect on remittances, as expected. Thus, given the importance of remittances to Samoa’s economy, it is possible that the business cycle in these three countries has a significant impact on Samoa through their impact on remittance flows.

  • Growth in Samoa has a negative and statistically significant effect on remittances, suggesting a role for the “insurance” effects described in Section B (Samoans living overseas remitting more during downturns in Samoa and vice-versa). Our results suggest that 1 percent higher growth in Samoa would slow the growth in remittances by 1.7 percent.

Table I.5.

Regressions for Changes in Remittance Flows1/

article image

* and ** denote statistical significance at the 10 and 5 percent level.

An increase in the real exchange rate denotes a real depreciation of the respective foreign currency vis-à-vis the tala.

Table I.6.

Error Correction Model (ECM) Regressions for Changes in Remittance Flows 1/

article image

* and ** denote statistical significance at the 10 and 5 percent level.

Corresponds to the four period lag of the long-run cointegrating relationship between the log of remittances on the logs of GDP in Samoa and in the remitting country, the real exchange rate, a time trend and seasonal dummies.

A01ufig04

Share of Remittances by Country of Origin

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 221; 10.5089/9781451840728.002.A001

Source: Samoan authorities.

D. Conclusions

11. Remittances play an important role in Samoa’s economy and are crucial to its external balance. The overwhelming majority of Samoan families benefit to some extent from international remittances. The strong attachment of overseas Samoans to their extended families and continuing flow of new migrants should ensure the reliability of remittances over the foreseeable future.

12. Business cycles in Australia, New Zealand and the United States can also affect Samoa through their impact on remittance flows. Since remittances account for such a large share of foreign currency receipts and growth in the remitting country tend to affect remittance flows to Samoa, it is possible that remittances constitute one of the main channels for the transmission of these countries business cycles to Samoa.

13. Remittances seem to help Samoa cope with shocks. The countercyclicality of remittance flows implied by our results is particularly helpful to Samoa given its vulnerability to large shocks (including natural disasters). Counter-cyclical remittances not only help to smooth consumption, but can also attenuate the decline in output following an adverse shock by contributing to domestic demand.

An Overview of the Empirical Evidence on the Economic Impact of Remittances

  • Microeconomic analysis indicates that remittances can affect receiving households through a number of different channels. It is possible for remittances to have an adverse effect on the labor supply if recipients use it as a substitute for labor income. On the other hand, remittances may also complement labor if used to finance productive investment opportunities that would otherwise be missed. The main investment financed by remittances is usually education. Household-level evidence from countries where detailed surveys are available suggests that remittances often help households provide schooling to their children. Those studies tend to find that remittances also help finance agricultural investments, self-employment activities and real-estate purchases. There are no such detailed studies available for Samoa and it would be worthwhile for one to be conducted.

  • Cross-country studies find that remittances have limited effects on growth in the receiving economies. Chami et al (2005) find a statistically significant negative effect of remittances on GDP growth, which is most likely due to an endogeneity problem (whereby remittances are likely to be higher in countries where growth prospects were limited to begin with). The World Economic Outlook, Spring 2005, Chapter II does not find a statistically significant direct link between GDP growth and remittances, but does find that remittances lower output volatility and also reduce poverty (measured as the number of people below the poverty line as well as the average gap between their incomes and the poverty line).

  • Remittances can also play a crucial role in insuring households against adverse shocks. Since the earnings of expatriate workers are not correlated with shocks to the receiving economy, remittances can provide a good source of “insurance” for the receiving households. Rapoport and Docquier (2005) show that remittances reduce the vulnerability of economies to shocks (including natural disasters).

  • International migration can have competing effects on human capital accumulation. Migration can lead to “brain drain” if most migrants are relatively skilled and educated. Adams (2003) shows that, in a sample of 24 large labor-exporting countries, the vast majority of legal migrants to the United States and the OECD have a secondary education or higher. On the other hand, international migration may actually help increase the skill level in the population. If the returns to education are higher in foreign economies than in the domestic one, the possibility of migrating in the future would increase the incentives to acquire education. Since only a fraction of the educated people would actually migrate, this would increase the average level of education in the domestic economy. This effect is in addition to the direct impact of remittances on schooling decisions described above.

References

  • Adams Jr., Richard (2003). “International Migration, Remittances and the Brain Drain: A Study of 24 Labor-Exporting Countries.” World Bank Research Working Paper 3069.

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  • Adams Jr., Richard John Page (2003). “International Migration, Remittances and Poverty in Developing Countries.” World Bank Policy Research Paper 3179.

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  • Ahlburg, Dennis and Richard Brown (1998). “Migrants’ Intentions to Return Home and Capital Transfers: A Study of Tongans and Samoans in Australia.” The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 35, 2.

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  • Brown, Richard (1994). “Migrants’ remittances, savings and investment in the South Pacific.” International Labour Review, Vol. 133, 3.

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  • Chami, Ralph, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah (2005). “Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 52, 1.

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  • Lucas, Robert (2001). “Diaspora and Development: Highly Skilled Migrants from East Asia,” mimeo Boston University.

  • World Economic Outlook, Spring 2005, chapter II: “Workers’ Remittances and Economic Development” (main author: Nicola Spatafora).

  • Ueda, Kenichi (2002). “Implications of Migration on Income and Welfare of Nationals,” IMF Working Paper 02/215.

  • Yang, Dean (2004). “International Migration, Human Capital, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks,” mimeo, University of Michigan.

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1

Prepared by Marcos Chamon (APD, ext. 35867).

2

Including second-generation migrants. There are over 100,000 Samoan-born migrants residing abroad. In New Zealand alone there about 50,000 Samoan born residents.

3

Export processing is included under services. If they were included under exports of goods, the latter would increase by roughly 50 to 60 percent in recent years.

4

Cash gifts in foreign currency are eventually converted to Samoan talas, making it possible to estimate those transactions. In-kind gifts are often recorded at the time of entry in Samoa. The data would not capture transfers provided in other countries (for example, New Zealand-based Samoans paying for their relatives to come visit or study in New Zealand). The use of “hawala-type” informal transfers can bias remittance estimates if gross flows are substantially different than net ones (since only the net flows would leave a “trail”). Since the overwhelming majority of private transfers flows in one direction (towards Samoa), the impact of this bias should be limited. Nevertheless, it is possible that informal channels lead to the misclassification of remittances as other items of the balance of payments.

5

Remittance flows are measured in the remitting currency and deflated using the CPI for the remitting country. They are then converted to talas so that they can be pooled into a single regression. The real exchange rate is defined by multiplying the nominal exchange rate by the ratio of the corresponding CPIs. All GDP figures are measured in constant prices. The data is available quarterly and covers 1994Q1 to 2004Q4.

6

For the error correction model, we regressed remittances on real GDP growth in Samoa and in the remitting country, on changes in the respective real exchange rate and on an error correction term (ECM) which denotes the long-run determinants of remittances.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 1.

Samoa: Gross Domestic Product by Sector at Constant 2002 Prices, 1999–2004

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Sources: Treasury Department of Samoa; and Fund staff estimates.

Financial intermediaries service charge, indirectly measured.

Table 2.

Samoa: Gross Domestic Product by Sector at Current Prices, 1999–2004

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Sources: Treasury Department of Samoa; and Fund staff estimates.

Financial intermediaries service charge, indirectly measured.

Provisional estimates.

Table 3.

Samoa: Indices of Industrial Production, 1999–2004 1/

(1997=100)

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Source: Central Bank of Samoa.

The industrial index has been revised to include a more comprehensive range of products manufactured in the country. It replaces the old index which was based in 1982 and included a small range of products.

Comprises copra meal, soap, toilet tissue, tobacco, and salted beef.

Salafai Metal Industries (SMI) has replaced Samoa Iron and Steel in the authorities’ Industrial Production Survey, as a producer of roofing iron from September 1998 onward.

Table 4.

Samoa: Energy Statistics, 1999–2004

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Sources: Electric Power Corporation; and Treasury Department of Samoa.

Figures relate only to government-owned electric power schemes. Village lighting schemes and other private plants are not included.

Transmission and distribution losses, and auxiliaries (power used in electricity production).

Figures for 2004 are provisional estimates.
Table 5.

Samoa: Building Permits Issued, 1997–2002

article image
Source: Treasury Department of Samoa.

The 1999 figure includes the renovation of the Faleolo Airport terminals (SAT 9 million) and the office complex for the Accident Compensation Board (SAT 19 million).

Table 6.

Samoa: Consumer Prices, 1999–2004

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Source: Statistics Services Division.
Table 7.

Samoa: Financial Operations of the Centeral Government, 1999/00–2004/05 1/

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Sources: Treasury Department of Samoa; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins on July 1.

Includes transactions that did not go through MOF in the 04/05 Budget, e.g. AusAid ISP’s etc..

Primarily foreign-financed development expenditure.

Includes loans and advances to public enterprises, capital subscriptions, and land purchases.

Includes revaluation of Treasury’s foreign assets.

Table 8.

Samoa: Revenue of the Centeral Government, 1999/00–2004/05

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Source: Treasury Department of Samoa.

Foreign exchange levy was removed in 1999.

Excludes VAGST payable by government departments.

Table 9.

Samoa: Current Expenditure Classified by Function, 1999/00–2004/05

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Source: Treasury Department of Samoa.

Includes domestically financed development expenditure.

Other includes Residual: unexplained.

Table 10.

Samoa: External Grants by Donors and Loan Disbursements, 1999/00–2004/05

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Source: Treasury Department of Samoa.

Includes grants from China, WHO, Canada, UNESCO, UNICEF, Germany, and France.

Includes expenditure on scholarship awards, ISPs, and consultants for which direct payment is made by donors.

Table 11.

Samoa: Public Enterprises and Statutory Authorities, 1999–2004

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Source: Treasury Department of Samoa.
Table 12.

Samoa: Structure of the Financial System, 1999–2004 1/

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Source: Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Gross claims of financial institutions on the Government of Samoa, domestic non-financial public enterprises and the private sector. However, the Ministry of Finance’s claims on and liabilities to Government are recorded on a net basis.

Westpac assumed full control of the Pacific Commercial Bank in May 2001.

Samoa Commercial Bank Limited commenced operation in April 2003.

Table 13.

Samoa: Monetary Survey, 1999/00–2004/05

(In millions of tala, unless indicated otherwise)

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Source: Treasury Department of Samoa.

Includes Treasury’s monetary accounts.

For quarterly data, the annual change is calculated relative to the respective quarter of the previous year.

Table 14.

Samoa: Summary Accounts of the Monetary Authorities, 1999/00–2004/05

(In millions of tala; end of period)

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Source: Centeral Bank of Samoa.

IMF accounts.

Table 15.

Samoa: Balance Sheet of the Commercial Banks, 1999–2004

(In millions of tala: end of period)

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Source: Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Excludes provisions for specific purposes.

Nonfinancial public enterprises and nonmonetary financial institutions.

Table 16.

Samoa: Credit to the Private Sector, 1999–2004

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Source: Centeral Bank of Samoa (*) Loans of public institutions that were previously classified under ‘other assets’ were reclassified to their appropriate categories. Historical series will be revised when data become available.

Refers to total credit extended to each sector.

Table 17.

Samoa: Interest Rates, 1999–2004

(In percent per annum; end of period)

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Source: Data provided by the Samoan authorities.
Table 18.

Samoa: International Liquidity, 1999/00–2004/05

(In millions of U.S. dollars, end of period)

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Source: Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Excluding Sinking Fund.

Results from the requirement, prescribed from time to time by the Centeral Bank, to open a letter of credit for imports in excess of consignment values.

Adjusted for contingent import liabilities.

Table 19.

Samoa: Balance of Payments, 1999/00–2004/05

(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless indicated otherwise)

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Sources: Data provided by the Samoan authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Excludes trade data for Yazaki Samoa Limited and imports by foreign diplomatic missions located in Samoa.

Imports in 2001/02 include exceptional capital imports (eight shipping vessels and machinery for the extension of the port) amounting to $8.6 million.

Comprises net exports of Yazaki.

Equals change in net foreign assets of commercial banks.

Equals change in net foreign assets of the monetary authorities (including valuation effects).

As a percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services. Includes debt service on government-guaranteed debt.

Table 20.

Samoa: Exports by Commodity, 1999/00–2004/05

(In thousands of tala, fob)

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Source: Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Includes nonu chips, powder, roots and seeds.

Includes soft drink concenterates.

Table 21.

Samoa: Destination of Exports, 1999/00–2004/05 1/

(In percent of total)

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Sources: Customs Department of Samoa; and Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Includes reexports.

Table 22.

Samoa: Origin of Imports, 1999/00–2004/05 1/

(In percent of total)

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Sources: Customs Department of Samoa; and Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Includes reexports.

Table 23.

Samoa: Services and Income Account, 1999/00–2004/05

(In millions of U.S. dollars) 1/

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Source: Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Using period average exchange rates.

Excludes freight and insurance.

Table 24.

Samoa: External Public Debt Outstanding, 1999/00–2009/10

(In millions of tala: end of period)

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Sources: Treasury Department of Samoa; and Centeral Bank of Samoa.

Data relate to DBS loans guaranteed by the government.

Includes leasing arrangements.

Table 25.

Samoa: Exchange Rates, 1997–2004

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Sources: Centeral Bank of Samoa; IMF Information Notice System, and International Financial Statistics.

Increase in index indicates an appreciation of the tala (source: the IMF Information Notice System).

Except Japanese yen, where data is yen per tala (source: IMF, International Financial Statistics).
1

Prepared by Romuald Semblat, (APD, ext. 37612), with contributions from Anne Morant (PFTAC).

2

Comparator Pacific Island countries include Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Tonga.

3

This includes Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

4

For a description of the tax system in Samoa and the reforms undertaken in the late 1990s, see “Tax and Tariff Reform”, Chapter 2 of the Selected Issues published in June 2003 (Country Report No. 03/196).

5

Eleven of which are supported by Australian Aid and one in the Justice Ministry by New Zealand Aid.

6

For example, of the 328 vacant posts in 2004/05 budget, funding was only provided for 123.

7

The review proposes a clear separation of the hospital service delivery function from the policy function.

8

Developed with technical assistance under the AsDB Project: Implementation of the Public Financial Management Act 2001

9

The Agency has exclusive rights over: the conduct and/or provision of facilities for betting; the carrying-on of bookmaking; the domestic game of sports lotto and to act as an agent for Tats lotto (international).

10

Stress tests conducted include scenarios in which macroeconomic shocks were designed on the basis of historical averages and these show that the debt is sustainable over the medium term (Table II.1)

11

See “Operational Framework for Debt Sustainability Assessments in Low-Income Countries-Further Considerations”, IMF, March 29, 2005 where debt thresholds are linked to the quality of a country’s policies and institutions.

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Samoa: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Author:
International Monetary Fund
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2005: Issue 221
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
9781451840728
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
49
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451840728.002

15 Largest Recipients of Remittances as a Share of GDP

(1990–2003 Average)

Sources of Foreign Exchange

(In percent)

Remittances as a Share of GDP

(In percent)

Share of Remittances by Country of Origin

(In percent)