This Report of the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module provides an assessment of Tajikistan’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. The assessment reveals that Tajikistan already meets many of the GDDS recommendations for dissemination of macroeconomic statistics. The main exceptions are the coverage of national accounts, central government operations, and central government debt. All data categories meet or exceed the recommended periodicity and timeliness.

Abstract

This Report of the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module provides an assessment of Tajikistan’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. The assessment reveals that Tajikistan already meets many of the GDDS recommendations for dissemination of macroeconomic statistics. The main exceptions are the coverage of national accounts, central government operations, and central government debt. All data categories meet or exceed the recommended periodicity and timeliness.

I. Overall Assessment

1. The Republic of Tajikistan has indicated its intention to participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).1 Membership can occur once metadata for the statistical series have been established and plans for improvement have been written. The authorities have requested assistance from the IMF’s Statistics Department to complete this task. As documented in the Appendix, the Republic of Tajikistan already meets many of the GDDS recommendations for dissemination of macroeconomic statistics. The main exceptions are the coverage of national accounts, central government operations, and central government debt. All data categories meet or exceed the recommended periodicity and timeliness.

2. The data module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for the Republic of Tajikistan describes a statistical system underpinned by a legal framework sufficient to promote the de facto independence of the main statistics-producing agencies. The framework provides the necessary authority for collecting and disseminating statistics. With some exceptions related to national accounts, balance of payments, and producer prices, statistical methodologies mostly follow internationally recognized good practices. Statistical techniques typically are sound, source data are well developed, while statistics broadly meet requirements for accuracy, reliability, and serviceability. The main challenges for the Tajik authorities are to augment the transparency of the statistics-producing process, strengthen metadata accessibility, and bolster public dissemination of statistics. Consistent with the recent history of Tajikistan as a part of the former U.S.S.R. command economy, the production and dissemination of statistics still is intended primarily to serve the needs of the state. The process needs to be refocused to underpin, service, and provide more information to the growing market economy and the public at large.

3. In applying the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF July 2003), the remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions. The presentation is done at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions and across datasets for the remaining four. Section II provides summary assessment tables of data quality by agency and dataset. This is followed by staff recommendations in Section III. An overview of current practices regarding coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of macroeconomic data compared to the GDDS is provided in Table 4.

4. Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity:

  • The State Committee on Statistics, or Goskomstat, operates within a legal framework that provides it with adequate de facto independence and a leading role in coordinating the work plans of other statistics-producing agencies but it should provide greater protection to the confidentiality of individual respondents’ data. Resources within the central office are broadly commensurate with current responsibilities but they are inadequate to support developmental work and computing enhancements; regional offices are under-resourced. The relevance of statistical series is promoted, among other things, by seeking feedback from users, although the focus is primarily on government users. Transparency could be enhanced through public notification that the government, in principle, has access to statistics prior to their public release.

  • The Ministry of Finance (MOF) operates in a strong legal and institutional environment that provides clear responsibilities. The environment also fosters good arrangements for sharing data among the agencies involved in government finance statistics (GFS) compilation and dissemination. Resources appear to be sufficient. GFS compilers lack a user’s perspective and the relevance of fiscal data could be enhanced. There are no laws or other formal arrangements to support the professional independence of GFS compilers, but MOF officials are objective and impartial, and in recent periods there has been no attempt by the authorities to influence statistical outputs. Transparency could be improved, including by providing public information on the terms and conditions applying to GFS. The government has internal access to statistics prior to their release to the public, but no information concerning this access is made public.

  • The National Bank of the Republic of Tajikistan (NBT) operates in a legal framework that provides clear responsibility for balance of payments and monetary statistics but that offers only limited protection to individual data. Computing resources could be strengthened. More attention to the needs of nongovernment users could be given in the case of balance of payments statistics. Additional measures are needed to strengthen the transparency of the data compilation process through greater dissemination of information to the public.

5. Methodological soundness is apparent in the areas of consumer prices, government finance statistics, and monetary statistics. However, an intensified effort is needed to strengthen the scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording of the national accounts, and to reconsider the concepts and the basis for recording that underlie the producer price index (PPI). There is need for consistency in applying the residency concept in the balance of payments statistics and for expanding their scope to better cover shuttle trade.

6. Accuracy and reliability dimensions are, for the most part, carefully and appropriately treated. Source data are well developed in all areas of statistics, and suitable processes for assessment and validation of source data are in place. Significant deficiencies in statistical techniques were observed for national accounts, most notably in procedures used to estimate the informal economy and in the exclusion of export prices in the PPI. The NBT needs to give more attention to revision studies in monetary statistics.

7. Serviceability of disseminated macroeconomic statistics is adequate, as the frequency and timeliness of disseminated data already typically meet or exceed GDDS recommendations. Consistency standards are largely met for all datasets. The NBT needs to give more attention to revision policies and practices for monetary and balance of payments statistics.

8. Accessibility of macroeconomic statistics and metadata is generally a weak point in the statistical system, especially in the areas of GFS, monetary, and balance of payments data. As yet, little use has been made of the Internet as a means of disseminating data or providing explanations in English. Assistance to users generally could be improved, including by making the broader public more aware that assistance is available and through broader distribution of publications catalogs.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

9. Assessments of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, consumer price index (CPI), PPI, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics—were conducted using the DQAF. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF’s elements and using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2a2c. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3af.

Table 1.

Republic of Tajikistan: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003–Summary Results

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Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies.Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.
Table 2a.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 0 and 1–State Committee on Statistics

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Table 2b.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 0 and 1–Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 0 and 1–National Bank of Tajikistan

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Table 3a.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 2 to 5–National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 2 to 5–Consumer Price Index

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Table 3c.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 2 to 5–Producer Price Index

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Table 3d.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 2 to 5–Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3e.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 2 to 5–Monetary Statistics

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Table 3f.

Republic of Tajikistan: Assessment of Data Quality–Dimensions 2 to 5–Balance of Payments Statistics

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III. Recommendations

10. Based on the review of Tajikistan’s statistical practices, discussions with the data-producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission has a set of recommendations. They are designed to increase further Tajikistan’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of Tajikistan’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

Cross-cutting recommendations

  • Amend The Law on State Statistics to protect data confidentiality for all data sourced from enterprises, regardless of their form of ownership.

  • Release statistics to all users at the same time.

  • Improve accessibility to statistics.

National Accounts

  • Resolve problems in estimates of unobserved economy and consequently revise time series of GDP.

  • Enhance scope of national accounts to include capital account and volume estimates of GDP by expenditure.

  • Conduct regular survey on unregistered employment.

  • Ensure consistency with BOP with regard to valuation of bartered goods, expenses of residents abroad and nonresidents in the national economy, and valuation of imports.

  • Carry out study to examine to what extent reported values in enterprise reports actually accord with the requirements of the 1993 SNA.

Price Indices

  • Collect separate export prices for the exported goods and adjust compilation method for the affected products (in particular, aluminum) in the PPI; review series backwards as far as possible, and publish the revised indices and revision analyses.

  • Revise methods used to select products and outlets to ensure that the population in scope for the CPI and PPI is properly covered. Redesign the HES to better capture certain categories of expenditures, and include imputed rentals of owner-occupied and luxury products, within the CPI scope. Similarly for the PPI, include small enterprises and household unincorporated units in the index scope.

  • Improve statistical techniques for the treatment of data (imputation, replacement, quality adjustment, and introduction of new products) for both CPI and PPI.

  • Adopt internationally used classification for CPI and PPI.

  • Produce and publish a comprehensive methodology on sources and methods of CPI and PPI.

  • Obtain adequate software and computing equipment, particularly for the regional centers.

Government Finance Statistics

  • Disseminate the full range of GFS tabulations recommended by GFSM 1986, including debt statistics, on the MOF website.

  • Include tabulations showing (1) a summary of GFS transactions; (2) expenditure and lending minus repayments classified by economic type; (3) financing; and (4) debt in the publication Socio-Economic Conditions in the Republic of Tajikistan.

  • Incorporate “special funds” fully into the GFS.

  • Reconcile financing flow data with changes in debt stock data.

  • Disseminate summary metadata on the MOF website.

  • Set up a small group within the MOF whose primary tasks are the compilation and dissemination of GFS and the further improvement in the relevance and quality of the GFS.

  • Establish a formal plan to migrate in stages to the implementation of GFSM 2001.

Monetary Statistics

  • Routinely review and update the computer program for compilation of monetary statistics, prepared and recommended by the IMF’s Statistics Department missions, to appropriately incorporate and classify all new balance sheet accounts in the monetary survey.

  • Prepare revision policy and undertake revision studies.

  • Improve data accessibility for monetary statistics to bring them more closely in line with best international practices.

Balance of Payments Statistics

  • Adjust the residency definition for all reporters and clarify the instructions to respondents.

  • Provide commensurate IT equipment ensuring capacity and security of the automated treatments.

  • Prepare and disseminate metadata on compilation methods and terms and conditions in which data are prepared and disseminated by the NBT.

  • Complete the coverage of missing information, e.g., improve the coverage of shuttle trade and compensation of employees.

  • Adopt a clear medium-term schedule for the revision program and formalize the revision cycle in a public document.

APPENDIX I Republic of Tajikistan: Overview of Current Practices Regarding Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Macroeconomic Data Compared to the General Data Dissemination System

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Italics indicate encouraged categories.
1

The Republic of Tajikistan formally began participating in the GDDS on November 17, 2004.