Namibia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
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This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.

Abstract

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.

IV. International Reserves and Investment Decisions by Institutional Investors29

A. Introduction

76. Investment decisions by Namibian institutional investors have had a major impact on Namibia’s capital account and the level of international reserves over the last few years. This reflects the limited state of development of Namibia’s financial markets and the broader range of investment opportunities available in South Africa’s financial markets. Given the size of the assets under management (AUM) of insurance companies and pension funds—they exceeded 100 percent of GDP in 2003—the resulting impact on Namibia’s capital account and reserves has been very pronounced. A recent study by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Namibia (BoN) concluded that such outflows amounted to N$1.8 billion on average between 1990 and 1994 and surged to N$2.3 billion annually between 1995 and 2000 (i.e., about 10 percent of GDP, annually).30 This trend has continued unabated.

77. This has prompted the Namibian authorities to consider options to keep a larger share of the national savings within Namibia’s borders, with a view to channeling these funds to worthwhile domestic investment opportunities and, ultimately, enhancing the country’s long-term growth potential. One part of the strategy has been to tighten investment guidelines, requiring a larger share of investment in domestic assets by institutional investors. Another part rests on the assumption that strengthening domestic capital markets will result in absorbing higher levels of Namibian savings within the economy.

78. This chapter is intended to provide an overview of the size and development of Namibia’s institutional investors and financial markets (Section B), explain the major factors that have contributed to capital outflows to South Africa (Section C), and lay out some options that could help strengthen domestic financial markets and contain capital outflows (Section D). The chapter concludes that since domestic capital markets are in their nascency, the Namibian authorities should support their development through targeted policy actions. Nevertheless, since capital markets take time to develop, it can be expected that Namibia’s capital account and reserves will continue to remain under pressure in the foreseeable future.

B. Namibia’s Financial Sector

79. Namibia’s financial sector comprises a relatively sophisticated banking system, a strong presence of pension funds and insurance companies, and capital markets that are still at their early state of development (Text Table IV.1). As a result, much of the financial intermediation in Namibia takes place through the banking system, whereas nonbank financial institutions—in spite of their size—have so far only played a limited role in this area and invested most of their funds in South Africa. This has made Namibia a net exporter of capital to South Africa’s financial markets, helped by the open capital account under the Common Monetary Agreement (CMA).

Text Table IV.1.

Namibia: Structure of Financial System, End-2003

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Sources: Namibia Stock Exchange; NAMFISA; and staff estimates.

80. The foundation for the current features of Namibia’s financial system was laid in the pre-independence period. Its commercial banks were either controlled by South African parents or had strong ties with South Africa.31 While Namibia was still a protectorate of South Africa, its pension funds and insurance companies benefited from the strong emphasis of mining companies on creating adequate protection and securing retirement income for their employees. Since independence, this emphasis has broadened to other private companies, and the strong growth of the civil service has provided additional impetus to the rapidly expanding role of pension funds and insurance companies. As a result, by 1995 institutional investors had amassed some N$5 billion in AUM, or over 40 percent of GDP. This trend has continued in the past decade.

Figure IV.1
Figure IV.1

Total Assets of Pension and Insurance Companies, 1995–2003

(In billions of Namibia dollars)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 096; 10.5089/9781451828399.002.A004

Sources: NAMFISA; RMB asset management; and staff estimates

81. Namibia’s capital markets are dominated by the government as the main issuer of debt instruments. The total domestic debt outstanding amounted to about N$11.7 billion at the end-September 2004, almost nine-tenth of which consisted of government debt.32 Since 2002, there has been a determined effort by the government to cater to the interest of institutional investors in longer-term maturities and create a benchmark for the emergence of private debt instruments that could help finance longer-term investment projects. In fact, the government has successfully lengthened the maturity profile of its outstanding debt. However, the ratio of Treasury bills to the Internal Registered Stocks (i.e., the medium- and long-term bonds) has remained broadly the same. At present, there are five large issues outstanding, with maturities ranging from 2007 to 2024.33 The pension and insurance companies hold the bulk of the outstanding stock of government debt.

Figure IV.2.
Figure IV.2.

Total Government Debt Outstanding, 1995–2004 1/

(In millions of Namibia dollars)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 096; 10.5089/9781451828399.002.A004

Source : Bank of Namibia and staff estimates.1/ Excluding public guaranteed debt and external debt.

82. Parastatals account for much of the issues of non-government bonds, with an outstanding stock of over N$700 million at end-June 2004. Parastatals began to tap the market in 1996, but only recently became major issuers.34 Issuance by parastatals is often guaranteed by the government and may have quasi-fiscal implications. The primary issuers in this category are the Road Fund Administration, Agriculture Bank, and National Housing Enterprise. Lately, some private issuers, such as Standard Bank and Bank Windhoek, have entered the market as well, but their market share is still small, with an outstanding stock of less than N$1 billion.

83. Market capitalization at the Namibia Stock Exchange (NSX) largely reflects dual-listed companies. Over 99 percent of the market capitalization is related to companies that are South African in origin and also quoted at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSX). Although the dual-listed companies have business operations in Namibia, their listing on the NSX allows Namibian institutional investors to invest at least 35 percent of their AUM in “domestic assets”—a regulatory requirement intended to curb capital outflows, which has been behind much of the growth of the NSX. About eight companies account for over 90 percent of the market capitalization of dual-listed companies (Anglo-American, Standard Bank, Old Mutual, First Rand, Sanlam, Baloworld, Edgars, and JD Group). Pension funds and insurance companies have about N$2 billion invested in the local equity market.

C. Major Factors Behind Capital Outflows to South Africa

84. Overall, the limited investment opportunities in domestic financial markets have led to sizable outflows of Namibian savings into the liquid and relatively developed markets in neighboring South Africa. These outflows have been at least double the level of inflows into Namibia reflecting the borrowing from Namibian banks from their South African parents to finance local credit operations. As a result, Namibia has increasingly large net claims on its neighbor, putting pressure on its capital account and its reserves levels.

Figure IV.3.
Figure IV.3.

Capital Outflows and Bank Foreign Liabilities, 1999–2003

(In billions of Namibia dollars)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 096; 10.5089/9781451828399.002.A004

Source: RMB asset management.

85. The AUM of Namibian pension funds and insurance companies are sizeable and, at more than 100 percent of GDP, one of the highest among emerging market economies. For example in Chile, a pioneer in this area, pension funds and insurers hold AUM equivalent to about 74 percent of GDP; in Argentina, this ratio is 16 percent; in Mexico and Poland, about 10 percent; in Malaysia, 77 percent; in Singapore, 103 percent; and in South Africa, 88 percent. Namibia’s AUM with pension funds and insurers are almost three times as large as Namibia’s domestic debt and equity markets (excluding dual-listed companies).

D. Developing Domestic Financial Markets

86. The earlier versions of Regulation 28 (for the pension fund industry) and Regulation 15 (for the insurance sector) had a regulatory requirement to hold a minimum of 10 percent of AUM in domestic assets. However, in the mid-1990s, the minimum threshold was raised to 35 percent, which contributed towards the growth in the NSX due to the increase in dual-listings of South African companies. Since investments in dual-listed companies were unable to contain capital outflows, the government has recently proposed a further tightening of domestic asset requirements and other regulatory changes. However, these proposals, which are still subject to discussion with market participants before a decision on them is taken, may not have the intended results.

87. In addition, the authorities have acknowledged that regulatory changes alone may be insufficient in arresting capital outflows. Consequently, they are interested in developing domestic financial markets to provide institutional investors with assets denominated in Namibian dollars and increase domestic financial intermediation.

Proposed regulatory changes and implications

88. NAMFISA, the official regulator for nonbank financial institutions, is presently analyzing proposed amendments to Regulation 28 and Regulation 15.35 A cabinet resolution suggests the following changes to the regulatory framework:

  • All institutional investors to invest a minimum of 5 percent of their assets in unlisted Namibian companies.

  • Reduce investment by institutional investors in dual-listed shares from 35 percent to 10 percent of their total assets over the next five years.

  • Withdraw the tax free status of Unit Trusts and apply the afore-mentioned domestic asset requirement to Unit Trusts.36

89. Further analysis is required to ascertain that the amendments to Regulations 28 and 15 will have the intended results. Although market views are mixed, the 5 percent investment requirement in unlisted Namibian companies seems to be the most promising in attracting funds currently invested in South Africa, provided, however, that there are profitable and qualitatively sound investment opportunities in such unlisted companies. Some institutional investors have already invested small amounts in local projects, with mixed results. As a consequence, minimum requirements for investments in unlisted assets and onerous limits on the choice of investments may negatively affect the risk return profile of pension funds and insurance companies. This could run counter to the objective of safeguarding the financial soundness of the institutional investors and, ultimately, put at risk the savings and pensions of the population. This may make it advisable to move carefully on the broadening of options for investment in unlisted companies.

90. Furthermore, it is not clear if reducing the limit on investments in dual-listed companies from 35 percent to 10 percent will be a positive move. It may restrict capital outflows, but there is a real possibility that dual-listed companies may de-list from the NSX, as the demand for such shares could be reduced sharply. As market capitalization would diminish, the question of even having a stock exchange could arise.

91. Investment income from Unit Trusts is currently exempted from taxation. As a result of their tax-free status, Unit Trusts have become very popular over the past few years and attracted significant deposits from individuals previously held with commercial banks. Removing their tax-free status could lessen their importance and lead to withdrawals, with a concomitant strengthening of the deposit base of commercial banks.

Issues to consider in building a domestic debt market

92. International experience suggests that establishing benchmarks, improving the market infrastructure, and diversifying the investor base all contribute towards developing the domestic debt market. Furthermore, the standard codes of best practice would include, among other things, a credit environment backed by rating agencies.

93. Government bonds are traditionally seen as conducive to creating a benchmark for the emergence of other domestic debt instruments. The successful lengthening of the maturity profile of Namibian government bonds and the recent issues of bonds by parastatals and private issuers have already increased the attractiveness of the Namibian bond market, but further efforts are needed.

94. A presence in international markets could be conducive to broadening the investor base and inducing the emergence of new borrowers, which would provide an additional impetus to the development of domestic financial markets. The first step in this direction would be to obtain a sovereign rating. The Namibian authorities are contemplating seeking such a rating and possibly issuing a Eurobond, which has, as a side effect, the potential of lowering borrowing costs to the government (Box IV.1). Having a direct measure of sovereign risk is likely to raise the profile of Namibia as a place to invest and help attract foreign direct investment and other project finance flows to Namibia (such as for the Kudu offshore gas project), especially from South African institutional investors. Furthermore, a sovereign rating could jump-start a credit rating environment for the domestic debt market and provide easier access of larger corporates and parastatals to tap domestic financial markets. Ultimately, one can expect that some of those corporates may follow the government and also issue abroad.

Issuing a Eurobond

An assumed sovereign rating in the B-range may reduce the yield spreads between Namibian and comparable South African bonds which presently range from 265 to 315 basis point (bps). It should be noted that spreads over South African bonds were in the 150 bps range about 18 months ago. Several factors could have led to this widening spread (see Box IV.2). The average interest rate of new issues of bonds is around 13 percent in Namibia, while Treasury bills presently cost around 8 percent but involve a roll-over risk.

uA04fig01

Namibia and South Africa Yields: October 24, 2004

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 096; 10.5089/9781451828399.002.A004

uA04fig02

Spreads On Comparable B-Rated Bonds

(In basis points)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2005, 096; 10.5089/9781451828399.002.A004

Source: Bloomberg.

Given the present liquidity in international markets, and based on yields on B-rated sovereigns, Namibia could lower its present borrowing costs by up to 500 bps. This could involve issuing a five-year debut Eurobond at spreads of about 450 to 500 basis points over the U.S. Treasury curve, i.e., at about a 8 percent coupon—lower than the 13 percent cost of raising funds in the local market for comparable maturity.

In light of the higher-than-expected budget deficit for 2003/04, the authorities could consider issuing such bond after the results of their intended fiscal adjustment in 2004/05 are visible. However, the global interest rate cycle is on an upturn, and any rating improvement stemming from waiting for a much improved fiscal outcome in 2004/05 may be offset by an increase in global interest rates.

This being said, issuing an Eurobond needs to be carefully prepared. In addition to the timing, the authorities would in particular need to be aware of the enhanced need for fiscal transparency and consider the possible drawbacks from the exchange rate risk which could be substantial.

95. More primary issues of bonds could also materialize if the authorities considered introducing restrictions by type of investment to address the large equity exposure of Namibian pension funds and insurance companies. In general, long-term investors are biased towards fixed-income instruments since their liabilities have a lengthy duration. However, in the case on Namibia, institutional investors typically hold about two-thirds of their AUM in equities—excessive when compared to both developed and emerging market countries and potentially risky. As illustrated in Text Table IV.2, many emerging market countries limit investments by pension funds to 30 to 50 percent of their total assets. Aside from the United Kingdom and the United States, the actual investments by pension funds in equities have generally been below 30 percent of their total AUM.

Text Table IV.2.

Pension Funds Portfolio Limits and Actual Asset Allocation, 2001–02

(In percent of total assets)

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Sources: IMF Global Finacial Stability Report, April 2004, page 31.

Numbers refer to maximum allocation; P indicates that the prudent man rule applies.

Data for mature markets are end of 2001 and for emerging markets are end of 2002.

1998 data.

In EU equity; 10 percent in foreign bonds are equities of non-EU countries. These limits are for pensionskassen, which are under the supervision of the insurance regulator. Other pension funds are not subject to investment limits.

No investment limits for public employee funds.

Securities of OECD countries not traded in regulated markets up to 50 percent; non-OECD securities traded in regulated markets limited to 5 percent (forbidden if traded in non-regulated markets).

Only sovereign and investment grade Mexican corporate debt permitted in foreign limit.

Polish Brady Bonds do not count against this limit.

Recent Widening in Namibian Bond Spreads vis-à-vis South Africa

The recent widening in Namibian bond spreads over South African bonds can be related to a variety of factors, including a reflection of the relative macroeconomic performance of both economies. On the one hand, South Africa’s economy performed well in 2004, which, together with a generally prudent macroeconomic policy stance, has led to a recent upgrade by Moody’s and a decline in its Eurobond spreads. On the other hand, while economic activity in Namibia may have outpaced that of South Africa, the recent rise in the fiscal deficit in Namibia may have exerted upward pressure on Namibian bond yields in 2004. An econometric study was undertaken (using monthly data from early 2002 to October 2004) to shed some light on the recent widening of Namibian bond spreads vis-à-vis comparable South African bonds. Variables that were found to significantly affect the dependent variable (i.e., the difference between Namibian bond spreads and comparable South African bond spreads) were the total outstanding public debt stock and the exchange rate. However, the ratio of net foreign assets to reserve money and the short-term interest rate differential were not found to be significant.

Namibia and South Africa 2015 Bonds: Historical Yields
Namibia and South Africa 2015 Bonds: Historical Yields

The significance of the appreciating exchange rate may be related to its differing impact on both economies. While the South African economy has been affected as well, it may have been more resilient and able to better adjust to the appreciation than Namibia. First, the impact of the rand’s strength has been offset by an increase in world prices by almost 70 percent for gold and platinum—South Africa’s major exports. Namibia’s primary source of revenue is from the diamond sector where prices have risen to a lesser extent. Second, South Africa’s trade openness indicator (i.e., exports plus imports relative to GDP) is around 54 percent, while Namibia’s is around 84 percent. Thus, changes in the value of the currency would impact Namibia more. Also, South Africa’s economy is well-diversified with strong retail, manufacturing, and service sectors when compared to Namibia’s predominantly mining-based economy. These factors could explain why the appreciation could have affected the bond spread between Namibia and South Africa.

Finally, other factors not captured by the regression may have played a role as well, such as concerns about Namibia’s land redistribution policy, political turmoil in the region, and market illiquidity. Market sources estimate that the illiquidity in the Namibian bond market adversely impacts the spreads by about 20 to 40 basis points.

96. If limits by investment were to be introduced in Namibia, such caps are likely to benefit South African bonds initially, given the limited supply of fixed-income debt instruments in Namibia at present. However, as domestic bond markets develop, pension funds and insurance companies may find sufficient domestic investment opportunities, which may help contain capital outflows.

97. Efforts could also be enhanced to improve market infrastructure. The primary market appears to be less of a concern, although settlement of new issues takes unusually long, up to one week. Regarding the secondary market, although trading takes place between asset managers, brokers, and banks, there is no uniform and transparent system in place to show bid/ask quotes. Only a privileged circle of investors has access to two-way prices. As a result, many investors perceive the market to be illiquid and are reluctant to invest in it. A new initiative by the Namibian Bondholders Association to provide a common platform for the reporting of prices and trading volumes, if implemented, is likely to increase the liquidity in local debt markets and could form the basis for an active secondary market.

E. Conclusions

98. One of the key features of the Namibian financial system is the large size of its institutional investors. Given the limited investment opportunities in Namibian financial markets, pension funds and insurance companies have no choice but to invest a large share of their assets abroad. There is a genuine case for developing domestic financial markets to keep a larger share of savings within Namibia, thereby helping contain the outflow of capital and safeguarding international reserves.

99. There are signs that such markets are beginning to develop in Namibia, to some extent as a result of actions taken by the authorities, such as the lengthening of the maturity profile of government securities. Other measures may not be as conducive, like the current proposals to tighten domestic asset requirements. Instead, further strengthening the benchmark role of government securities, enhancing the market infrastructure and prudential requirements, and diversifying the investor base—including by obtaining a sovereign rating and making Namibian financial markets more attractive to foreign investors, especially from South Africa—could help in this endeavor. However, since capital markets take time to develop, it can be expected that Namibia’s capital account and reserves will continue to remain under pressure in the foreseeable future.

Table 1.

Namibia: GDP and Gross National Income (GNI) at Current Prices, 1998–2003

(In millions of Namibia dollars, unless otherwise indicated)

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 2.

Namibia: GDP by Industrial Origin at Current Prices, 1998–2003

(In millions of Namibia dollars)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 3.

Namibia: GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant 1995 Prices, 1998–2003

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 4.

Namibia: GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant 1995 Prices, 1998–2003

(Annual percentage change)

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 5.

Namibia: Expenditure on GDP, 1998–2003

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 6.

Namibia: Output of Selected Minerals, 1998–2003

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Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy.
Table 7.

Namibia: Harvest of Main Commercial Fishing Species, 1999-2003

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Source: Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources.
Table 8.

Namibia: Consumer Price Index (Windhoek), January 2001–November 2004

(Index, December 1992=100)

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 9.

Namibia: Financial Operations of the Central Government, 1998/99–2003/04 1/

(In millions of Namibia dollars)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Transfers from the common revenue pool (customs and excise) of the Southern African Customs Union.

Includes externally financed project spending (except for roads) that is not channeled through the state account.

Table 10.

Namibia: Central Government Revenue and Grants, 1998/99–2003/04 1/

(In millions of Namibia dollars)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Transfers from the common revenue pool (customs and excise) of the Southern African Customs Union.

Table 11.

Namibia: Central Government Revenue and Grants, 1998/99–2003/04 1/

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Transfers from the common revenue pool (customs and excise) of the Southern African Customs Union.

Table 12.

Namibia: Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99-2003/04 1/

(In millions of Namibia dollars)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

This includes externally financed project spending (except for roads) that is not channeled through the state account.

Table 13.

Namibia: Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99-2003/04 1/

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

This includes externally financed project spending (except for roads) that is not channeled through the state account.

Table 14.

Namibia: Functional Classification of Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99–2003/04 1/

(In millions of Namibia dollars)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Actual data on functional spending for 2003/04 are not yet available.

Includes public debt transactions.

Table 15.

Namibia: Sectoral Share of Central Government Expenditure, 1998/99–2003/04 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Actual data on functional spending for 2003/04 are not yet available.

Includes public debt transactions.

Table 16.

Namibia: Outstanding Debt of Central Government, 1998/99-2003/04 1/

(In millions of Namibia dollars, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1. Unless otherwise indicated, data correspond to debt stocks at the end of each fiscal year.

Data for 1998/99 relate to September, not March, 1999.

Table 17.

Namibia: Monetary Survey, 1998–2003

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Source: Bank of Namibia, Quarterly Bulletin

Following Fund advice, the authorities recently revised the monetary statistics, involving several reclassification in the central and commercial bank balance sheets. As a result, no growth rates are shown for 2002.

Deposit money bank and other banking institution holdings of South African rand.

Includes liabilities: shares and equity, securities, loans, trade credit and advances.

Table 18.

Namibia: Summary Accounts of the Bank of Namibia, 1998–2003

(In millions of Namibia dollars)

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Source: Bank of Namibia.

Following Fund advice, the authorities recently revised the monetary statistics, involving several reclassification in the central and commercial bank balance sheets.

Other banking institutions in old terminology

Capital and reserves in old terminology

Includes securities, loans and trade credit and advances

Table 19.

Namibia: Interest Rates, 1998–2003

(Annual averages in percent)

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Sources: South African Reserve Bank; Bank of Namibia; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

South African Reserve Bank’s repo rate.

Average tender rate for 91-day bills.

Money market rates in Namibia before 1996 are the same as South African rates.

For South Africa, rates are upper margin of interest on time deposits of 88-91 days. For Namibia, rates are weighted averages of demand deposits, 88-day notice deposits, savings deposits, and deposits with a maturity of more than one year of two largest commercial banks.

For South Africa, prime overdraft rate of major banks. For Namibia, weighted average of different lending instruments.

Headline inflation for South Africa; Windhoek consumer price index for Namibia.

Deflated by consumer price indices.

Table 20.

Namibia: Financial Soundness Indicators, 1998–2003

(In percent, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Bank of Namibia; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Table 21.

Namibia: Selected Indicators of Stock Exchange Activity, 1998–2003

(Based on calendar years, with listings and share price figures stated as of December 31)

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Source: Namibian Stock Exchange.
Table 22.

Namibia: Balance of Payments, 1998–2003

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Sources: Bank of Namibia; and Fund staff estimates.

Southern African Customs Union.

Gross foreign assets of the Bank of Namibia.

Table 23.

Namibia: Balance of Payments, 1998–2003

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Sources: Bank of Namibia and Fund staff estimates.

Southern African Customs Union.

Gross foreign assets of the Bank of Namibia.

Table 24.

Namibia: Merchandise Exports by Commodity Group, 1998–2003

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Source: Bank of Namibia.
Table 25.

Namibia: Mineral Exports, 1998–2003

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Source: Bank of Namibia.
Table 26.

Namibia: External Trade Indices, 1998–2003

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Sources: Bank of Namibia; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 27.

Namibia: Merchandise Imports, by Commodity Group, 1998–2003

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Source: Bank of Namibia, and Fund staff estimates.
Table 28.

Namibia: Imports (c.i.f) by Country of Origin, 1998–2003

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 29.

Namibia: Exports by Country Destination, 1998–2003

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 30.

Namibia: Developments in the Exchange Rate of the Namibia Dollar, 1995-2004

(Period average; 1995=100)

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Sources: IMF, Information Notice System; and Fund staff calculations.

Namibia: Summary of the Central Government Tax System, November 2004

(All amounts in Namibia dollars)

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Source: Ministry of Finance.

References

  • Bank of Namibia (2004), Annual Symposium Deliberations, August.

  • Bank of Namibia (2004), Quarterly Bulletin, September.

  • Euromoney (2004),Africa—The Rise of a Capital Market Culture,November, pp.124- 126.

  • IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, various series.

  • Namibia Cabinet of Ministers, Media Release, July 27, 2004.

  • Risk (2004),Special Report on South Africa,November, pp. 7884.

  • RMB Asset Management (2004),Presentation to GIPF Stakeholders Function—Regulation 28,October 2004.

29

Prepared by Manmohan Singh (ICM). This paper has benefited from extensive discussions with Bank of Namibia officials, especially Paul Hartmann, Ipumbu Shiimi, and Phillip Shiimi. The views of the major banks and asset managers were also solicited.

30

Media Release from the Cabinet of Ministers, July 27, 2004.

31

See An Overview of the Namibian Bond Market, Bank of Namibia Annual Symposium, August 2004.

32

Overall government debt amounted to N$10.2 billion (31 percent of GDP) at the end of the 2003/04 fiscal year, of which N$1.6 billion were external debt (5 percent of GDP). The public debt stock including publicly guaranteed debt amounted to N$13.6 billion (41 percent of GDP). Namibia’s public debt stock is low by sub-Saharan African standards, but higher than in neighboring countries, such as Botswana and South Africa (with public debt/GDP ratios of 8 percent and 23 percent, respectively).

33

The 2005 issue due in April 2005 has largely been rolled over via multiple “switch-auctions” into other longer-dated issues; amortization due in April 2005 is now only about N$300 million.

34

Until 2002, the total outstanding stock of nongovernmental debt was below N$200 million.

35

Namibia Financial Institutions Supervisory Authority (NAMFISA) is the official regulator for the nonbanking sector and oversees the pension and insurance sectors, unit trusts and the stock exchange.

36

Unit Trusts are regulated by the United Trust Control Act and are not governed by Regulation 28 or Regulation 15.

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Namibia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Author:
International Monetary Fund
  • Figure IV.1

    Total Assets of Pension and Insurance Companies, 1995–2003

    (In billions of Namibia dollars)

  • Figure IV.2.

    Total Government Debt Outstanding, 1995–2004 1/

    (In millions of Namibia dollars)

  • Figure IV.3.

    Capital Outflows and Bank Foreign Liabilities, 1999–2003

    (In billions of Namibia dollars)

  • Namibia and South Africa Yields: October 24, 2004

  • Spreads On Comparable B-Rated Bonds

    (In basis points)

  • Namibia and South Africa 2015 Bonds: Historical Yields