Republic of Belarus: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
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This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides an assessment of the Republic of Belarus’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. The assessment reveals that the quality of the Belarus macroeconomic statistics has improved significantly in many areas in the last few years. The authorities have also established a relatively good track record of implementing recommendations of past technical assistance in statistics.

Abstract

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides an assessment of the Republic of Belarus’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. The assessment reveals that the quality of the Belarus macroeconomic statistics has improved significantly in many areas in the last few years. The authorities have also established a relatively good track record of implementing recommendations of past technical assistance in statistics.

I. Overall Assessment

1. In the Republic of Belarus, the main agencies that compile statistics assessed in this report are the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis (Minstat) (national accounts, consumer price index (CPI), and producer price index (PPI)), the Ministry of Finance (MoF) (government finance statistics (GFS)), and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) (monetary and balance of payments statistics). In the Republic of Belarus, in addition to these official statistics, numerous targets and forecasts are made by government authorities and other users. This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module, which was prepared during March 23–April 7, 2004 assesses the quality of the above official statistics, not the targets or forecasts. The quality of the Republic of the Belarus’s macroeconomic statistics has improved significantly in many areas in the last few years. The authorities have established a relatively good track record of implementing recommendations of past technical assistance in statistics and have demonstrated commitment to pursuing plans and programs to further improve their statistics. Notwithstanding these improvements, the mission found that all statistical agencies should increase users’ confidence in the accuracy and reliability of official statistics. As part of this process, the mission recommends that more detailed information should be disseminated on the revision policies and compilation practices of all datasets, especially for national accounts and GFS. This would help respond to needs raised by certain users contacted by the mission.

2. The Republic of Belarus has not yet subscribed to the SDDS, but a resolution of the Council of Ministers has expressed the Republic of Belarus’s intention to do so.12 During the mission, the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Statistics and Analysis, and the First Deputy Governor of the NBRB, voiced their strong commitment for SDDS subscription. The authorities have started posting data and metadata on the Minstat, the MoF, and the NBRB web sites. Particularly, the Minstat has posted long-term time-series price indices on the Internet during the mission and the NBRB announced that it will post the international reserves and foreign currency liquidity (reserves template) by end April 2004.3 A preliminary review of the Republic of Belarus’s observance of the SDDS (see Appendix I) has concluded that it meets or exceeds the specifications for coverage, periodicity, and the timeliness for all SDDS data categories, except for timeliness of national accounts, and the availability of the reserves template; the review did not cover the SDDS availability of advance release calendars, summary methodology statements, and a national summary data page. The remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions from applying the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF July 2003) for six economic datasets. The presentation is done at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions, and across datasets for the remaining four.4

3. Prerequisites of quality: The legal relations associated with the statistical activity of State statistical authorities, ministries, and other administrative authorities producing statistics in the Republic of Belarus are well covered by the Law on State Statistics. Nonetheless, for the MoF and the NBRB, the institutional responsibility for collecting, compiling, and disseminating government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics is not always clearly defined under the legal and institutional framework. The MoF’s responsibility for collecting and compiling GFS is covered only through an internal provision and the dissemination of statistics is limited to the IMF departments, the Minstat, the NBRB, and other Belarusian agencies. The NBRB’s statistical responsibilities, which were not completely covered in the Banking Code of the Republic of Belarus, are currently being addressed in the National Assembly. Among other prerequisites of quality, confidentiality of individual respondents’ data is well protected in current legislation but may need to be strengthened in regard to requesting consent from an entity for the disclosure of its information. Staff resources at the Minstat and the NBRB are mostly adequate, but are quantitatively inadequate for the compilation of GFS in the MoF. Recent new tasks in terms of SDDS subscription (external debt and reserves template) may also require additional training and staffing at the NBRB. All agencies demonstrate awareness of quality.

4. Assurances of integrity: All three agencies demonstrate professionalism; all provide guidelines on ethical conduct of their staff. The relevance of national accounts, CPI, and PPI is not systematically monitored. Fiscal data are widely available; however, the terms and conditions under which the MoF collects, compiles, and disseminates GFS are not publicly available.

5. Methodological soundness. All datasets are in stages of meeting internationally accepted methodological guidelines, but could come closer in certain areas. For national accounts, for example, concepts used in the Minstat’s surveys generally accord with international standards; however, economic activity and product classifications do not yet meet international standards, and work is under way to progressively implement these international classifications. For the CPI, owner-occupied housing and own account consumption are excluded. For the PPI, service industries are excluded. For government finance, the scopes of the compiled finance statistics and budget system operations are incomplete—not all extrabudgetary operations are included. For monetary and balance of payments statistics, the classification by instrument does not include financial derivatives. In addition, the valuation of monetary gold in monetary statistics is recorded in the NBRB’s account at the historical acquisition cost (transaction cost) and is revalued at irregular intervals, as authorized by individual directives of the management of the NBRB. However, a decision has already been taken to revalue gold at market prices in monetary statistics beginning with data for April 2004, and to revise historical time series accordingly.

6. Accuracy and reliability. Some datasets receive high marks for accuracy and reliability, and the Republic of Belarus’s statistical system has generally comprehensive and timely source data. However, in national accounts, further attention to measurement of the nonobserved economy would be desirable. Also, according to the Minstat, balance of payments inputs for national accounts are not timely enough. Also, in balance of payments source data, there are no distinct International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS) codes for financial transactions and related income on bonds and notes and on money market instruments. In addition, financial institutions’ transactions in securities are calculated as residual after valuation and other changes. Measures taken in assessing and validating source data, intermediate data, and statistical outputs appear appropriate. However, the mission has concerns about the accuracy and reliability of actual data produced, particularly of the GDP and industrial and agricultural production data. The mission’s focus did not involve an audit of sources used to compile national accounts statistics: if the basic inputs used in the statistical process are distorted, outputs will also be distorted, even if internationally recognized methodologies are applied. Thus, the mission recommended that all data producing agencies in the Republic of Belarus should enhance their data assessment and validation procedures, finding ways in the process of increasing users’ confidence in the accuracy and reliability of official statistics.

7. Serviceability. Most datasets are generally consistent internally and over time and are available on a timely basis with good frequency. In general, timeliness and periodicity of the datasets meet or exceed SDDS requirements. The exception is the timeliness of the data on national accounts. Moreover, the statistical discrepancy is explicitly shown in GDP estimates at current prices but not in the constant price series. Also, there are significant differences between fiscal and monetary data on financing of central government, and neither the MoF nor the NBRB carry out a comprehensive reconciliation of both data sets. Revisions of quarterly national accounts were made from 1990 to 1999, but explanations were not published. Preliminary and revised data are not clearly identified in most datasets.

8. Accessibility. Monetary and balance of payments statistics are readily and conveniently available to the public. Nevertheless, the accessibility of statistics and assistance to users in national accounts, CPI, PPI, and GFS could be further improved. Metadata for all datasets need enhancement, especially for national accounts and GFS.

9. Section II of this ROSC data module provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-part scale (see the footnote, Table 1). This is followed by staff recommendations in Section III. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents.

Table 1.

Republic of Belarus: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results

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Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

10. Assessments of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, CPI, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics—were conducted using the DQAF July 2003. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF’s elements, using a four-point scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF), are presented in Tables 2a, 2b, and 2c. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3a–f.

Table 2a.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Statistics and Analysis

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Table 2b.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—National Bank of the Republic of Belarus

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Table 3a.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Consumer Price Index

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Table 3c.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Producer Price Index

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Table 3d.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3e.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3f.

Republic of Belarus: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

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III. Recommendations

11. Based on the review of the Republic of Belarus’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission has a set of recommendations. They are designed to increase further the Republic of Belarus’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of the Republic of Belarus’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

Cross-cutting Recommendations

High priority

  • Following the authorities’ decision to subscribe to SDDS, continue preparatory steps for this subscription.

  • Establish broadly based advisory committees representative of various groups of users.

  • Conduct regular users surveys to determine if the statistical agencies are meeting the needs of users.

  • Provide more detailed metadata and methodological descriptions in statistical publications and on the three institutions’ web sites.

  • Announce major changes in methodology in advance of the publication of the revised data.

  • Improve public awareness of statistics producing agencies, and user understanding of official data.

  • Develop improved back-up arrangements for storage of data, including off-site storage.

  • Clearly mark data that are preliminary or revised.

  • Conduct and publicize revision studies.

National Accounts

High priority

  • Commence negotiations between the Minstat and the NBRB with the aim of improving the timeliness of the balance of payments data supplied to the Minstat for the quarterly national accounts.

  • Review the quality of the monthly industrial production indices and publish them on a standard reference base.

  • Give priority attention to the implementation of the General Classification of Types of Economic Activity (OKED) and the central product classification.

  • Document and disseminate explanations between the Ministry of Economy’s targets and the Minstat’s actual GDP statistics.

Other recommendations

  • Strengthen procedures to guard against the disclosure of confidential information.

  • Provide improved computing facilities for national accounts staff.

  • Provide explanations on the differences between the constant price estimates based on previous period and those on a fixed base period to users.

  • Undertake analyses of quarterly and annual trends in the statistical discrepancy as a means of identifying error sources and biases that require attention.

Price Indices

High priority

  • Develop a range of control edits supported by computer programs for verification of data, and identification of errors.

  • Publish long-term time-series more frequently.

  • Provide explanations to users on the differences between price indices based on previous period and those on a fixed base period.

Other recommendations

  • Strengthen procedures to guard against the disclosure of confidential information.

  • Examine the desirability of including owner-occupied housing imputations in the CPI.

  • Include net purchases of second-hand goods, such as cars, in the CPI.

  • Include goods and services produced for own final consumption in the CPI.

  • Include service industries to achieve a broader coverage of the PPI.

  • Review the possibility of imputations on owner-account production and owner-occupied dwellings for the PPI.

  • Produce and disseminate seasonally adjusted data.

  • Provide requested data in a more timely basis.

Government Finance Statistics

High priority

  • Compile and disseminate GFS for the consolidated central government and the general government including all budgetary, social security funds, and extrabudgetary operations using the classification determined by international standards.

  • Disseminate on MoF’s web site the GFS compiled and published in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) and Government Finance Statistics Yearbook (GFSY).

  • Increase staff resources and provide more computing and financing resources for GFS compilation in the MoF.

  • Coordinate with the NBRB to carry out a detailed reconciliation of fiscal data on bank financing with monetary data on changes in net claims on government.

Other recommendations

  • Improve the presentations of disseminated GFS to include additional breakdowns and time series.

  • Establish a plan and timetable for adopting the GFSM 2001; commence relevant training; and start recording government transaction both on a cash and on an accrual basis.

Monetary Statistics

High Priority
  • Carry out statistical adjustments to monthly data to revalue monetary gold at market prices, with a contra entry in revaluation accounts.

  • Incorporate data on financial derivatives in the statistics, providing appropriate lines both in assets and liabilities.

  • Coordinate with the MoF to carry out a detailed reconciliation of monetary data on changes in net claims on government with fiscal data on bank financing.

Other recommendations
  • Enhance the description of methodology provided to the users to include more information on the recording basis and valuation rules.

Balance of Payments Statistics

High priority
  • Introduce the functional category of financial derivatives in the standard balance of payments presentation.

  • Calculate financial transactions in securities from changes in stocks independently, and derive valuation and other changes as a residual.

  • Add separate codes for income on bonds and notes, and money market instruments.

  • Calculate income on bank’s security holdings on an accrual basis.

  • Establish a survey to collect data on other sectors’ non guaranteed debt on an accrual basis.

Appendix I Table 4.

Republic of Belarus: Practices Compared to the SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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Note: Periodicity and timeliness: (D) daily; (W) weekly or with a lag of no more than one week from the reference date or the closing of the reference week; (M) monthly or with a lag of no more than one month; (Q) quarterly or with a lag of no more than one quarter; (A) annually; (NA) not available; and (…) not applicable.
1

The Republic of Belarus subscribed to the SDDS on December 22, 2004. References to SDDS in this report are to the situation as of the time of the data ROSC mission.

2

Early in January 2004, the authorities conveyed the Resolution of the Council of Ministers “on cooperation between the Republic of Belarus and International Monetary Fund on the Special Data Dissemination Standard,” expressing its intention in subscribing to the SDDS.

3

The reserves template data were posted on the NBRB’s web site on April 12, 2004.

4

This data ROSC includes a general, but not detailed assessment of data sources used in compiling the national accounts. The aspects related to the liquidity of reserves assets and pledged and otherwise committed assets are also not covered in this report.

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