Front Matter Page
© 2004 International Monetary Fund
August 2004
IMF Country Report No. 04/233
Union of the Comoros: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Union of the Comoros was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on April 19, 2004. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of the Union of the Comoros or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Front Matter Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
UNION OF THE COMOROS
Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Prepared by a Staff Team constisting of Mr. Riechel (head), Ms. Sancak, Mr. Camard, and Mr Mikhael (all AFR), and Mr. Puig (SEC)
Approved by the African Department
April 19, 2004
Contents
Basic Data
I. Introduction
Comoros: Basic Data
Actual data for prices and exchange rates.
Goods and services.
Public and publicly guaranteed debt.
Three-year average of exports of goods and services used.
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 Est. 1/ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts | (In millions of Comorian francs, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||
| GDP at current market prices | 95,303 | 102,782 | 108,850 | 121,003 | 128,980 | 140,887 | ||
| GDP at constant (1990) market prices | 73,488 | 74,902 | 76,696 | 78,485 | 80,310 | 81,993 | ||
| (annual percentage change) | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | ||
| (In percent of GDP at current market prices) | ||||||||
| Gross domestic expenditure | 125.9 | 123.7 | 117.3 | 115.7 | 115.5 | 114.5 | ||
| Consumption | 107.9 | 108.8 | 104.2 | 103.9 | 103.3 | 102.9 | ||
| Investment | 18.0 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 11.6 | ||
| Net exports 2/ | -22.7 | -20.7 | -14.5 | -13.2 | -13.6 | -12.7 | ||
| Gross national savings | 9.5 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 13.6 | 9.9 | 7.2 | ||
| Prices | (Annual percentage change) | |||||||
| Consumer price index (annual average) | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 4.5 | ||
| Terms of trade (- deterioration) | -15.3 | 91.0 | 71.6 | -10.6 | 61.4 | 1.4 | ||
| Exchange rates | ||||||||
| Exchange rate (in Comorian francs per U.S. dollar; period average) | 442.5 | 461.8 | 534.0 | 549.3 | 521.1 | 437.6 | ||
| Nominal effective exchange rate (-depreciation; end of period) | 1.6 | -3.4 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | ||
| Real effective exchange rate (-depreciation; end of period) | 3.5 | -1.7 | -5.7 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 10.5 | ||
| Central government finance | (In millions of Comorian francs, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||
| Total revenue | 10,865 | 12,079 | 11,017 | 16,904 | 21,521 | 22,335 | ||
| Grants | 6,947 | 6,806 | 4,539 | 5,332 | 5,408 | 3,147 | ||
| Total expenditure and net lending | 24,229 | 19,174 | 17,220 | 26,592 | 33,473 | 31,161 | ||
| Current expenditure | 13,648 | 14,138 | 13,493 | 21,256 | 24,172 | 22,769 | ||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 7,390 | 5,531 | 4,121 | 5,337 | 7,528 | 7,578 | ||
| Overall balance on a commitment basis | ||||||||
| Excluding grants | -13,364 | -7,095 | -6,202 | -9,689 | -11,952 | -8,826 | ||
| Including grants | -6,417 | -289 | -1,663 | -4,357 | -6,544 | -5,679 | ||
| Overall balance on a cash basis | ||||||||
| Excluding grants | -10,687 | -6,471 | -4,238 | -7,946 | -10,983 | -6,600 | ||
| Including grants | -3,740 | 336 | 301 | -2,614 | -5,575 | -3,453 | ||
| Overall balance on a commitment basis (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||
| Excluding grants | -14.0 | -6.9 | -5.7 | -8.0 | -9.3 | -6.3 | ||
| Including grants | -6.7 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -3.6 | -5.1 | -4.0 | ||
| Money and credit | (Annual change in percent of beginning of period broad money stock) | |||||||
| Domestic credit | 11.2 | -2.6 | 3.1 | -3.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | ||
| Government (net) | 8.8 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.6 | 1.3 | -1.3 | ||
| Private sector | 3.8 | -3.4 | 6.4 | -0.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | ||
| Broad money (including foreign currency deposits) | -6.6 | 7.0 | 14.5 | 47.4 | 9.4 | -0.4 | ||
| Balance of payments | (In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||
| Current account balance (excluding official transfers) | -22.2 | -17.6 | -5.5 | -0.5 | -12.4 | -17.5 | ||
| Current account balance (including official transfers) | -18.2 | -14.3 | -3.5 | 4.0 | -5.7 | -14.1 | ||
| Exports, f.o.b. | 5.9 | 9.1 | 13.6 | 16.6 | 22.4 | 31.6 | ||
| Imports, f.o.b. | -42.3 | -43.3 | -37.3 | -39.8 | -49.1 | -58.4 | ||
| Trade balance | -36.4 | -34.3 | -23.7 | -23.2 | -26.7 | -26.8 | ||
| Services (net) | -12.4 | -11.8 | -5.9 | -5.8 | -7.0 | -14.1 | ||
| Income (net) | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | -0.8 | ||
| Current transfers (net) | 31.0 | 31.6 | 25.7 | 30.7 | 28.0 | 27.5 | ||
| Capital and financial account (net) | 5.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | ||
| Capital account (net) | 11.7 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | ||
| Financial account (net) | -7.0 | -9.9 | -2.6 | 2.6 | 11.9 | 7.3 | ||
| Overall balance | -13.2 | -5.6 | 2.8 | 16.8 | 6.3 | -6.8 | ||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||
| Excluding official transfers | -10.3 | -7.9 | -2.7 | -0.2 | -5.0 | -5.4 | ||
| Including official transfers | -2.5 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 4.2 | -0.8 | -3.2 | ||
| Gross official international reserves (end of period) | ||||||||
| In millions of U.S. dollars | 37.5 | 39.6 | 43.1 | 63.5 | 74.4 | 86.5 | ||
| In months of imports of goods and services | 6.0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.1 | ||
| External debt | ||||||||
| Stock of external debt (end of period) 3/ | ||||||||
| (in percent of GDP) | 126.3 | 117.3 | 111.7 | 100.5 | 91.9 | 77.8 | ||
| Scheduled external debt service 3/ | ||||||||
| (in percent of exports of goods and services) 4/ | 45.5 | 38.0 | 30.6 | 27.5 | 13.8 | 13.5 | ||
Actual data for prices and exchange rates.
Goods and services.
Public and publicly guaranteed debt.
Three-year average of exports of goods and services used.
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 Est. 1/ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts | (In millions of Comorian francs, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||
| GDP at current market prices | 95,303 | 102,782 | 108,850 | 121,003 | 128,980 | 140,887 | ||
| GDP at constant (1990) market prices | 73,488 | 74,902 | 76,696 | 78,485 | 80,310 | 81,993 | ||
| (annual percentage change) | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | ||
| (In percent of GDP at current market prices) | ||||||||
| Gross domestic expenditure | 125.9 | 123.7 | 117.3 | 115.7 | 115.5 | 114.5 | ||
| Consumption | 107.9 | 108.8 | 104.2 | 103.9 | 103.3 | 102.9 | ||
| Investment | 18.0 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 11.6 | ||
| Net exports 2/ | -22.7 | -20.7 | -14.5 | -13.2 | -13.6 | -12.7 | ||
| Gross national savings | 9.5 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 13.6 | 9.9 | 7.2 | ||
| Prices | (Annual percentage change) | |||||||
| Consumer price index (annual average) | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 4.5 | ||
| Terms of trade (- deterioration) | -15.3 | 91.0 | 71.6 | -10.6 | 61.4 | 1.4 | ||
| Exchange rates | ||||||||
| Exchange rate (in Comorian francs per U.S. dollar; period average) | 442.5 | 461.8 | 534.0 | 549.3 | 521.1 | 437.6 | ||
| Nominal effective exchange rate (-depreciation; end of period) | 1.6 | -3.4 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | ||
| Real effective exchange rate (-depreciation; end of period) | 3.5 | -1.7 | -5.7 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 10.5 | ||
| Central government finance | (In millions of Comorian francs, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||
| Total revenue | 10,865 | 12,079 | 11,017 | 16,904 | 21,521 | 22,335 | ||
| Grants | 6,947 | 6,806 | 4,539 | 5,332 | 5,408 | 3,147 | ||
| Total expenditure and net lending | 24,229 | 19,174 | 17,220 | 26,592 | 33,473 | 31,161 | ||
| Current expenditure | 13,648 | 14,138 | 13,493 | 21,256 | 24,172 | 22,769 | ||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 7,390 | 5,531 | 4,121 | 5,337 | 7,528 | 7,578 | ||
| Overall balance on a commitment basis | ||||||||
| Excluding grants | -13,364 | -7,095 | -6,202 | -9,689 | -11,952 | -8,826 | ||
| Including grants | -6,417 | -289 | -1,663 | -4,357 | -6,544 | -5,679 | ||
| Overall balance on a cash basis | ||||||||
| Excluding grants | -10,687 | -6,471 | -4,238 | -7,946 | -10,983 | -6,600 | ||
| Including grants | -3,740 | 336 | 301 | -2,614 | -5,575 | -3,453 | ||
| Overall balance on a commitment basis (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||
| Excluding grants | -14.0 | -6.9 | -5.7 | -8.0 | -9.3 | -6.3 | ||
| Including grants | -6.7 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -3.6 | -5.1 | -4.0 | ||
| Money and credit | (Annual change in percent of beginning of period broad money stock) | |||||||
| Domestic credit | 11.2 | -2.6 | 3.1 | -3.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | ||
| Government (net) | 8.8 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.6 | 1.3 | -1.3 | ||
| Private sector | 3.8 | -3.4 | 6.4 | -0.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | ||
| Broad money (including foreign currency deposits) | -6.6 | 7.0 | 14.5 | 47.4 | 9.4 | -0.4 | ||
| Balance of payments | (In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise specified) | |||||||
| Current account balance (excluding official transfers) | -22.2 | -17.6 | -5.5 | -0.5 | -12.4 | -17.5 | ||
| Current account balance (including official transfers) | -18.2 | -14.3 | -3.5 | 4.0 | -5.7 | -14.1 | ||
| Exports, f.o.b. | 5.9 | 9.1 | 13.6 | 16.6 | 22.4 | 31.6 | ||
| Imports, f.o.b. | -42.3 | -43.3 | -37.3 | -39.8 | -49.1 | -58.4 | ||
| Trade balance | -36.4 | -34.3 | -23.7 | -23.2 | -26.7 | -26.8 | ||
| Services (net) | -12.4 | -11.8 | -5.9 | -5.8 | -7.0 | -14.1 | ||
| Income (net) | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | -0.8 | ||
| Current transfers (net) | 31.0 | 31.6 | 25.7 | 30.7 | 28.0 | 27.5 | ||
| Capital and financial account (net) | 5.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | ||
| Capital account (net) | 11.7 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | ||
| Financial account (net) | -7.0 | -9.9 | -2.6 | 2.6 | 11.9 | 7.3 | ||
| Overall balance | -13.2 | -5.6 | 2.8 | 16.8 | 6.3 | -6.8 | ||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||
| Excluding official transfers | -10.3 | -7.9 | -2.7 | -0.2 | -5.0 | -5.4 | ||
| Including official transfers | -2.5 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 4.2 | -0.8 | -3.2 | ||
| Gross official international reserves (end of period) | ||||||||
| In millions of U.S. dollars | 37.5 | 39.6 | 43.1 | 63.5 | 74.4 | 86.5 | ||
| In months of imports of goods and services | 6.0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.1 | ||
| External debt | ||||||||
| Stock of external debt (end of period) 3/ | ||||||||
| (in percent of GDP) | 126.3 | 117.3 | 111.7 | 100.5 | 91.9 | 77.8 | ||
| Scheduled external debt service 3/ | ||||||||
| (in percent of exports of goods and services) 4/ | 45.5 | 38.0 | 30.6 | 27.5 | 13.8 | 13.5 | ||
Actual data for prices and exchange rates.
Goods and services.
Public and publicly guaranteed debt.
Three-year average of exports of goods and services used.
Contents
II. Decentralization in the Comoros—Striking a Balance
A. Introduction
B. Toward New Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations
Establishment of a new constitution
Drafting by-laws to the constitution
The transition agreement
Implementing the agreement on transitional arrangements
C. Key Issues in Decentralization in the Comoros
D. Ensuring Effective and Efficient Economic Management
Boxes
II.1 Key Dates
II.2 The Constitution of the Union of Comoros
Text Tables
II.1 Agreed Budget Framework, January-June 2004
III. Civil Service Reform Under Decentralization
A. Introduction
B. Discussion of Issues
Evaluating wages and employment in the civil service
The structure of the civil service in 2001
General proposals for civil service reform in the Comoros
Proposals for civil service management under decentralization
C. Proposals of Paris Meetings
D. Conclusion
Boxes
III.1 Civil Service Indicators
Figures
III.1 Civil Service in Anjouan, 1997–2003
Text Tables
III.1 Civil Service Indicators
IV. Financial Sector Developments
A. Background
B. Structure of the Financial Sector
C. General Indicators
Key Financial Institutions
D. Central Bank Role and Activities
Objectives
Independence
Figures
IV.1 Total Assets of the Banking Sector, 1991-2002
IV.2 Degree of Monetization, 1991-2002
IV.3 Currency in Circulation, 1991-2002
IV.4 Banks Claims on Private Sector, 1991-2002
IV.5 Domestic Savings, 1991-2002
IV.6 Nonperforming loans, 1998-2002
Text Tables
IV.1 Market Shares of Financial Institutions, 1998-2002
IV.2 Financial Situation of the BIC-C, 1998-2002
IV.3 Financial Situation of the BDC, 1998-2002
IV.4 Financial Situation of the BCC, 1998-2002
V. External Sector Developments and Policies
A. Introduction
B. Balance of Payments Developments
C. Key Determinants of the Balance of Payments
Trade
Remittances
Official transfers and aid dependency
Diversification and vulnerability
D. External Debt
E. Exchange and Trade Regimes and Policies
Exchange regime
Trade regime and participation in regional organizations
Figures
V.1 Trade in Goods and Services, 1993-2003
V.2 Transfers as a Percentage of Total External Receipts, 1993-2003
V.3 Current Account Developments, 1993-20034
V.4 Terms of Trade, 1993-2003
V.5 Evolution of Balance of Payments, 1993-2003
V.6 Reserves in Months of Imports, 1993-2003
V.7 Change in External Arrears, 1993-2003
V.8 Imports, 1993-2003
V.9 Export Concentration, 1993-2003
V.10 Exports, 1993-2003
V.11 Real and Nominal Effective Exchange Rates, 1993-2003
V.12 Comoros and Other Countries: Remittances Per Capita, 2001
V.13 Comoros and Other Countries: Remittances in Relation to GDP, 2001
V.14 Official Transfers, 1993-2003
Text Tables
V.1 Market Shares of the Comoros in World Markets and in Main Destination Countries, 1995-2002
V.2 Exports of Key Commodities, 1993-2003
V.3 Labor Costs in the Comoros and Neighboring Countries
V.4 Aid Dependency Indicators, 1996 and 2001
V.5 Debt by Creditor at End-2003
V.6 Taxes on International Trade
Tables
1. Gross Domestic Product by Sector at Current Market Prices, 1997-2002
2. Gross Domestic Product by Sector at 1990 Constant Prices, 1997-2002
3. Source and Use of Resources at Current Market Prices, 1997-2002
4. Source and Use of Resources at 1990 Constant Prices, 1997-2002
5. Food Crop Production, 1997-2002
6. Livestock, 1997-2002
7. Production of Meat, Fish, and Dairy Products, 1997-2002
8. Export Crop Production, 1997-2002
9. Prices of Export Crops, 1997-2002
10. Cost Structure of Vanilla Exports, 1997-2002
11. Production and Consumption of Electricity, 1997-2002
12. Indicators of Tourism Activity, 1997-2002
13. Indicators of Population, Employment, and Education, 1997-2002
14. Consumer Price Index, 1995-99
15. Consumer Price Index, 1999-2002
16. Prices of Essential Goods, 1997-2002
17. Consolidated Government Financial Operations, 1997-2002
18. Consolidated Government Revenue and Grants, 1997-2002
19. Consolidated Government Expenditure, 1997-2002
20. Wage Bill Developments by Ministry, 1998-2002
21. Staffing Levels by Ministry, 1997-2002
22. Goverment Wage Bill, 1997-2002
23. Consolidated Net Statement of Public Enterprises, 1997-2002
24. Consolidated Financial Statement of Public Enterprises, 1997-2002
25. Monetary Survey, 1997-2002
26. Summary Statement of the Central Bank, 1997-2002
27. Summary Statement of the Bank for Industry and Commerce, 1997-2002
28. Structure of Interest Rates, 1997-2002
29. Balance of Payments, 1997-2002
30. Balance of Payments, 1997-2002
31. Volume and Value of Principal Exports, f.o.b., 1997-2002
32. Volume and Value of Principal Imports, c.i.f., 1997-2002
33. Geographical Distribution of Trade, 1997-2002
34. External Debt Outstanding by Creditors, 1997-2002
35. External Debt Payments Arrears by Creditors, 1997-2002
36. External Debt-Service Payments by Creditors, 1997-2002