Republic of Congo: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
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This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper outlines the recent developments in the political and security situation in Congo. It reviews economic performance during 1970–2003, including in the context of IMF-supported programs. The paper also reviews recent developments in public finance management, and examines the constraints on growth and poverty reduction. The sources of economic growth during 1970–2003 are analyzed. The paper also discusses the feasibility of an oil fiscal rule, and notes some key lessons and challenges for the Congo.

Abstract

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper outlines the recent developments in the political and security situation in Congo. It reviews economic performance during 1970–2003, including in the context of IMF-supported programs. The paper also reviews recent developments in public finance management, and examines the constraints on growth and poverty reduction. The sources of economic growth during 1970–2003 are analyzed. The paper also discusses the feasibility of an oil fiscal rule, and notes some key lessons and challenges for the Congo.

VIII. Key Lessons and Challenges

63. The evaluation of the Congo’s economic and social performance during 1970–2003 suggests a number of lessons on to address the central challenges facing the country.

A. Avoiding Conflicts

64. As noted in Section II, the economic and social costs of the recent conflicts were enormous. Therefore, a crucial challenge for the Congolese government is to put in place the conditions necessary for a substantial reduction in the likelihood of future conflicts. This will require intense efforts in order to:

  • Secure social stability by promptly implementing the proposed demobilization program for former combatants.

  • Strengthen the institutional framework that supports the country’s democratic constitution (such as the Court of Accounts, the Economic and Social Council, and the Constitutional Court).

  • Achieve significant improvements in living conditions through the efficient delivery of government services and more equitable distribution of oil wealth. The dislocations caused by the recent conflicts make it even more imperative to place poverty reduction at the top of the priority list of economic policy objectives.

  • Increase governance in the oil sector, including through greater transparency on oil-related revenues and improved management of oil sector activities. More generally, public access to economic and social information should be a key component of attempts to improve decision-making, strengthen accountability, and mobilize internal and external support for reform efforts.

  • Broaden the policy discussions and expand ownership of the reform process by entrenching democratic institutions, and installing effective policy deliberation mechanisms and transparent decision-making practices.

B. Avoiding Pro-Cyclical Government Spending

65. As described in Section III, public investment has tended to be pro-cyclically related to oil revenue, thereby transmitting oil-sector volatility to the rest of the economy. The resulting boom-bust cycles of economic activity appear, in turn, to be correlated with the onset of conflicts. A transparent policy framework, underpinned by the institutionalized rational use of oil rents could be instrumental in strengthening the management of public resources and preventing frenzied levels of rent seeking activities. Recent oil sector developments, including continuing high international prices and brighter perspectives on production levels in the Congo, make it imperative to break with past policy trends.

66. A key component of such a strategy could be a price rule geared to ensuring the sustainability of fiscal policy. Complementary elements would include: wide ranging discussions at the level of the parliament and civil society to ensure the mechanism and its objectives are well understood and widely endorsed, and wide dissemination of regular and timely updates on budgetary execution. At a more technical level, it would be crucial to carefully vet decisions on public investment projects to safeguard the efficiency of capital use and to ensure a significant contribution to productive capacity.

C. Promoting Private Sector Growth

67. As noted in Section V, economic growth in the non-oil sector faces significant structural impediments. The importance of meeting this challenge arises primarily from the non-renewable nature of oil, and the lack of economic linkages from the oil sector to the rest of the economy. In order to enhance competitiveness in the non-oil sector, the government in concert with its development partners must urgently tackle the fundamental causes of high transaction costs. In the immediate term, key challenges include enhancing the overall governance framework and effectively combat corruption, improving efficiency in the delivery of public utilities, and promoting financial deepening.

68. To promote good governance, the government has recently: (i) enacted a code of conduct for civil servants and the enabling regulations for the related disciplinary councils; (ii) started preparing, with assistance from the UNDP, a National Anti-corruption Program; and (iii) proposed to the Council of Ministers the establishment of a National Anti-Corruption and Anti-Fraud Commission. A detailed strategy would provide a roadmap for follow-up actions and its wide dissemination would mobilize efforts and resources to assist with effective implementation of the action plan.

69. Additionally, it is urgent to:

  • Accelerate reforms in the water, electricity, telecommunications, and rail transport sectors, in order to begin to reduce the high costs of doing business in the non-oil sector.

  • Reinforce the legal and judicial framework to promote a stable business environment.

  • Nurture the ongoing expansion in the activities of the micro-finance sector, including by maintaining the tax exempt status of mutual micro-finance institutions whose activities are closely linked to poverty reduction efforts. This sector promises to significantly expand the availability of financial sector services to a segment of the population which, to date, is excluded from the more formal banking sector.

D. Alleviating the Debt Burden

70. The Congo is one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world, on the basis of per capita debt levels. It needs assistance from the international community to remove this debt overhang, and therefore, putting in place the conditions necessary to ensure such assistance is an immediate challenge. Given the structure of the Congo debt, exceptionally favorable treatment will be required from external creditors on certain categories of external arrears.

71. The international community, in turn, will need assurances from the government that it is making the maximum effort to: implement structural reforms, and to mobilize domestic resources and utilize them judiciously. Particularly critical for future debt sustainability is the adoption of sound debt management policies, including the elimination of the practice of contracting oil-collateralized debt. For reasons of social stability, domestic payment arrears should be settled in a transparent manner on the basis of a comprehensive domestic arrears settlement plan that is widely published. International debt relief should complement the country’s own efforts at mobilizing resources to raise spending aimed at poverty-reduction.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Republic of Congo: Basic Data, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; World Bank, World Development Indicators; and staff estimates.
Table 1.

Republic of Congo: Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1990 Prices, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.
Table 2.

Republic of Congo: Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.
Table 3.

Republic of Congo: Supply and Use of Resources at Constant 1990 Prices, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.
Table 4.

Republic of Congo: Supply and Use of Resources at Current Prices, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.
Table 5.

Republic of Congo: Saving and Investment Balances, 1996–2003 1/

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.

Data subject to a large degree of uncertainty; balance of payments being rebuilt.

Including public enterprises.

Owing to data limitations, the split between the saving of the oil and non-oil private sectors is subject to uncertainty.

Table 6.

Republic of Congo: Production of Principal Crops, 1996/97–2002/03

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Source: National Center of Statistics and Economic Research (CNSEE).
Table 7.

Republic of Congo: Fishing Production, 1997–2003

(In tons)

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Source: National Center of Statistics and Economic Research (CNSEE).
Table 8.

Republic of Congo: Wood Production, 1997–2003

(In thousands of cubic meters)

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Source: Ministry of Forestry and Fisheries.
Table 9.

Republic of Congo: Oil Production by Field, 1997–2003

(In thousands of tons)

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Source: Ministry of Hydrocarbons.
Table 10.

Republic of Congo: Oil Refinery Production, 1997–2003 1/

(In thousands of metric tons)

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Source: Ministry of Hydrocarbons.

Refinery suspended operations from end-1997 until March 2000.

Table 11.

Republic of Congo: Consumption of Refined Petroleum Products, 1997–2003

(In thousands of metric tons)

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Source: Ministry of Hydrocarbons.
Table 12.

Republic of Congo: Industrial Production, 1997–2003

(In tons, unless otherwise indicated)

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Source: National Center of Statistics and Economic Research (CNSEE).
Table 13.

Republic of Congo: Electricity Generation, 1997–2003

(In millions of kilowatt-hours)

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Source: National Electricity Company.
Table 14.

Republic of Congo: Rail and River Traffic, 1997–2003

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Source: Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation.

No consistent data are available.

Oil export included.

Table 15.

Republic of Congo: Price lndices for Brazzaville, 1997–2003

(Index, 1977=100, unless otherwise indicated)

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Source: National Center of Statistics and Economic Research (CNSEE).

Brazzaville consumer price index only; therefore data differ from the aggregate consumer price index for Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire included in the basic data table.

Table 16.

Republic of Congo: Representative Retail Prices of Major Food Items in Brazzaville, 1997–2003

(CFA francs per kilogram, unless otherwise indicated; end of period)

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Source: National Center of Statistics and Economic Research (CNSEE).
Table 17.

Republic of Congo: Central Government Employment by Ministry, 1997–2003

(Number of employees)

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Source: Congolese authorities.
Table 18.

Republic of Congo: Central Government Financial Operations, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.
Table 19.

Republic of Congo: Central Government Revenue, 1997–2003

(In billions of CFA francs)

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.

SNPC = Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (national oil company).

Table 20.

Republic of Congo: Central Government Revenue Trends, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.

SNPC = Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (national oil company).

Table 21.

Republic of Congo: Central Government Expenditure Trends, 1997–2003

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget; and staff estimates.
Table 22.

Republic of Congo: Monetary Survey, 1997–2003

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Sources: Bank of Central African States (BEAC); and staff estimates.

Including public enterprises.

Table 23.

Republic of Congo: Summary Accounts of the Central Bank, 1997–2003

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Sources: Bank of Central African States (BEAC); and staff estimates.
Table 24.

Republic of Congo: Summary Accounts of the Commercial Banks, 1997–2003

(In billions of CFA francs; end of period)

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Sources: Bank of Central African States (BEAC); and staff estimates.

Including public enterprises.

Table 25.

Republic of Congo: Interest Rate Structure, 1997–2003

(In percent per annum; end of period or date of change)

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Source: Bank of Central African States (BEAC).

Since February 5, 1996, the BEAC has used certificates of investment (certificat de placement—appels d’offres négatifs) auctioned to eligible financial institutions at rates and in amounts determined by the Governor of the BEAC; it has also extended access to the money market to selected nonbank financial institutions, monitored the publication of prime lending rates by lending rates at commercial banks (taux de base bancaire), set maximum penalty rates plus 700 points, and limited the application of minimum deposit rates to passbook saving deposits of less than CFAF 5 million.

Rates apply to advances to national treasuries in the BEAC zone within the central bank’s statutory ceilings.

Rates apply to advances to national treasuries in the BEAC zone above the central bank’s statutory ceilings.

Rates apply to direct access to central bank credit subject to the provision of acceptable collateral. Rates are set at 100–300 basis points above the money market rates.

The financial institutions admitted to the money market currently are the BIDC, UCB, BGFI, CAIC, and MUCODEC.

The rates are administered by the BEAC and apply to lending operations through auctions in the money market (positive auctions).

Penalty rates apply to nonreimbursed advances in the money market, or as a sanction on individual banking institutions.

Rates apply to free reserves in addition to required reserves deposited with the central bank. Remuneration of free reserves was discontinued on February 5, 1996 after the introduction of certificates of investment.

The rates are administered by the BEAC and apply to certificates of investment offered in the money market since February 5, 1996.

TDM, taux débiteur maximum.

TCM, taux créditeur minimum. Rates apply to small savings deposits only.

Table 26.

Republic of Congo: Balance of Payments, 1997–2003 1/

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Table 26.

Republic of Congo: Balance of Payments, 1996–2002 1/ (concluded)

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Sources: Bank of Central African States (BEAC); and staff estimates.

Data being revised extensively.

Table 27.

Republic of Congo: Balance of Payments of the Oil and Non-Oil Sectors, 1999–2003 1/

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Sources: Bank of Central African States (BEAC); and staff estimates.

Data being revised extensively.

Table 28.

Republic of Congo: Composition of Exports, 1997–2003

(In billions of CFA francs, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Congolese authorities; and staff estimates.
Table 29.

Republic of Congo: Services, Income, and Transfers, 1997–2003 1/

(In billions of CFA francs)

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Sources: Bank of Central African States (BEAC); and staff estimates.

Data being revised extensively.

Table 30.

Republic of Congo: Capital and Financial Accounts, 1997–2003

(In billions of CFA francs)

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Sources: Congolese authorities; and staff estimates.
Table 31.

Republic of Congo: External Trade Indices, 1997–2003

(Index, 1990=100, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Congolese authorities; and staff estimates.
Table 32.

Republic of Congo: External Public Debt and Debt Service, 1997–2003

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Table 33.

Republic of Congo: Exchange Rate Indices, 1997–2003

(Index, 1990 = 100)

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Source: IMF, Information Notice System.

Republic of Congo: Summary of Tax System, 2004

(Index, 1990 = 100)

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Source: General Directorate of Taxes, Ministry of Economy, Finance, and the Budget. Note: The personal income tax (item 1.1), the corporate income tax (item 1.2), and the VAT (item 2.1) generate about 90 percent of tax revenue.
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