Abstract
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper outlines the recent developments in the political and security situation in Congo. It reviews economic performance during 1970–2003, including in the context of IMF-supported programs. The paper also reviews recent developments in public finance management, and examines the constraints on growth and poverty reduction. The sources of economic growth during 1970–2003 are analyzed. The paper also discusses the feasibility of an oil fiscal rule, and notes some key lessons and challenges for the Congo.
II. Political and Security Situation2
A. Background3
6. After three relatively peaceful but coup-ridden decades of independence, the Republic of the Congo (hereafter “the Congo”) experienced three intense conflicts in the 1990s (1993, 1997, and 1998–99)—see Box II.1 for a time line of key political events. After an already turbulent first half of the 1990s, due principally to disputes over elections, political turmoil intensified after 1996 and two civil wars (in 1997 and late 1998) ravaged the southern part of the country. In various combinations, these conflicts opposed the regular armed forces and three main militias (the “Cobras” of President Denis Sassou Nguesso, the “Coyotes” and the “Zulus” of the former President, Pascal Lissouba, and the “Ninjas” of Bernard Kolelas and Pastor Ntumi).
Fighting erupted in 1993 when disputed parliamentary elections led to ethnically based fighting between progovernment forces and the opposition. A cease-fire agreement was followed, during 1994–95, by the inclusion of some opposition members in the government.
In 1997, ethnic and political tensions exploded into a full-scale civil war, fueled in part by the prize of the country’s offshore oil wealth, which may have motivated warlords. The army split along ethnic lines, with most northern officers joining President Sassou Nguesso’s side and most southerners backing the rebels. These were supporters of Pascal Lissouba, and his Prime Minister, Bernard Kolelas, who had been deposed by Sassou Nguesso in 1997. The new President appointed a government of “national unity” of 33 members in November 1997, and the government convened a National Forum of Reconciliation in January 1998. The new government implemented a three-month emergency program, with support from several UN agencies, the European Union, France, and nongovernmental organizations. The main objective was to respond to the pressing needs of the Brazzaville population in terms of security, health, food, and shelter, and to begin to rebuild the nation’s institutional, administrative, and statistical capacity.
The conflict of December 1998-October 1999 affected mainly the southern part of the country. Following the 1998–99 conflict, a cease-fire agreement was signed in late 1999, that provided for a national dialogue, demilitarization of political parties, and the reorganization of the army, including the readmission of rebel units into the security forces.
Republic of Congo: Chronology of Key Political Events Since Independence1
| 1960: | The Congo becomes independent with Fulbert Youlou as President. |
| 1963: | President Youlou is forced to resign following workers’ unrest; Alphonse Massamba-Debat becomes President and Pascal Lissouba prime minister. |
| 1968: | President Massamba-Debat is ousted in a coup led by Marien Ngouabi, who continues his predecessor’s commitment to socialism but sets up his own party, the Congolese Workers Party (PCT). |
| 1970: | President Ngouabi proclaims the Congo a Marxist People’s Republic, with the PCT as the sole legitimate party. |
| 1977: | President Ngouabi is assassinated in a plot by Massamba-Debat, who in turn is executed; Joachim Yhombi-Opango becomes President. |
| 1979: | President Yhombi-Opango hands over the presidency to the PCT, which chooses Denis Sassou Nguesso as his successor. |
| 1990: | The PCT abandons Marxism. |
| 1992: | Voters approve a new Constitution establishing a multiparty system; Pascal Lissouba elected President in the Congo’s first democratic election. |
| 1993: | Bloody fighting erupts between government forces and opposition over disputed parliamentary elections. |
| 1994-95: | Cease-fire between government and opposition established; opposition given government posts. |
| 1997: | Full-scale civil war breaks out; pro-Sassou Nguesso forces, aided by Angolan troops, capture the capital, Brazzaville, forcing Lissouba to flee. |
| 1999: | Government and rebels sign a peace deal in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, providing for a national dialogue, demilitarization of political parties, and the readmission of rebel units into the country’s security apparatus. |
| 2001 Apr.: | Peace conference ends by adopting a new Constitution that will be put to a referendum at the end of the year, paving the way for presidential and parliamentary elections. |
| 2001 Sep.: | Transitional parliament adopts a draft Constitution. Some 15,000 militia are disarmed in a cash-for-arms scheme. |
| 2001 Dec.: | Former President Pascal Lissouba is convicted in absentia on treason and corruption charges, and sentenced to 30 years’ hard labor by the High Court in Brazzaville. |
| 2002 Jan.: | Official results indicate that about 80 percent of voters in the constitutional referendum approved amendments aimed at consolidating presidential powers. |
| 2002 Mar.: | Sassou Nguesso wins presidential elections unopposed after his main rivals are barred from the contest. Intense fighting between government and “Ninja” rebels drives many thousands of civilians from their homes in the Pool region. The rebels, loyal to former Prime Minister Bernard Kolelas and led by a Pastor Ntumi, name themselves after the famous Japanese warriors. |
| 2002 Jun: | Government troops battle Ninja rebels in Brazzaville. About 100 people are killed in some of the worst fighting seen in the capital in years. |
| 2003 Mar: | Government signs agreements with Ninja rebels, aimed at ending fighting in Pool region. Pastor Ntumi agrees to end hostilities and allow the return of the rule of law. |
| 1960: | The Congo becomes independent with Fulbert Youlou as President. |
| 1963: | President Youlou is forced to resign following workers’ unrest; Alphonse Massamba-Debat becomes President and Pascal Lissouba prime minister. |
| 1968: | President Massamba-Debat is ousted in a coup led by Marien Ngouabi, who continues his predecessor’s commitment to socialism but sets up his own party, the Congolese Workers Party (PCT). |
| 1970: | President Ngouabi proclaims the Congo a Marxist People’s Republic, with the PCT as the sole legitimate party. |
| 1977: | President Ngouabi is assassinated in a plot by Massamba-Debat, who in turn is executed; Joachim Yhombi-Opango becomes President. |
| 1979: | President Yhombi-Opango hands over the presidency to the PCT, which chooses Denis Sassou Nguesso as his successor. |
| 1990: | The PCT abandons Marxism. |
| 1992: | Voters approve a new Constitution establishing a multiparty system; Pascal Lissouba elected President in the Congo’s first democratic election. |
| 1993: | Bloody fighting erupts between government forces and opposition over disputed parliamentary elections. |
| 1994-95: | Cease-fire between government and opposition established; opposition given government posts. |
| 1997: | Full-scale civil war breaks out; pro-Sassou Nguesso forces, aided by Angolan troops, capture the capital, Brazzaville, forcing Lissouba to flee. |
| 1999: | Government and rebels sign a peace deal in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, providing for a national dialogue, demilitarization of political parties, and the readmission of rebel units into the country’s security apparatus. |
| 2001 Apr.: | Peace conference ends by adopting a new Constitution that will be put to a referendum at the end of the year, paving the way for presidential and parliamentary elections. |
| 2001 Sep.: | Transitional parliament adopts a draft Constitution. Some 15,000 militia are disarmed in a cash-for-arms scheme. |
| 2001 Dec.: | Former President Pascal Lissouba is convicted in absentia on treason and corruption charges, and sentenced to 30 years’ hard labor by the High Court in Brazzaville. |
| 2002 Jan.: | Official results indicate that about 80 percent of voters in the constitutional referendum approved amendments aimed at consolidating presidential powers. |
| 2002 Mar.: | Sassou Nguesso wins presidential elections unopposed after his main rivals are barred from the contest. Intense fighting between government and “Ninja” rebels drives many thousands of civilians from their homes in the Pool region. The rebels, loyal to former Prime Minister Bernard Kolelas and led by a Pastor Ntumi, name themselves after the famous Japanese warriors. |
| 2002 Jun: | Government troops battle Ninja rebels in Brazzaville. About 100 people are killed in some of the worst fighting seen in the capital in years. |
| 2003 Mar: | Government signs agreements with Ninja rebels, aimed at ending fighting in Pool region. Pastor Ntumi agrees to end hostilities and allow the return of the rule of law. |
B. Recent Developments
7. The national dialogue that followed the 1999 cease-fire offered an opportunity for drafting a new Constitution in 2001. President Sassou Nguesso consolidated his power base, and postwar reconstruction was undertaken, along with the reintegration of former militiamen into the society, with the support of the international community. The new constitution, adopted by referendum in January 2002, strengthened the power of the president. Presidential, legislative, local and senatorial elections were held during March-July 2002, although the main political challengers and former leaders were excluded. The inauguration of President Sassou Nguesso in August 2002 put a formal end to the four-year transition period. Subsequently, a new government, was empowered to implement a policy agenda popularly known as New Hope (Nouvelle Esperance).
8. Renewed activity from a rebel group in 2002 dealt a setback to efforts on peace consolidation and political normalization. The Pool region (including Brazzaville) was destabilized by (i) the resumption of military activity in the spring of 2002, (ii) strikes carried out by the Ninja rebel group (led by Pastor Ntumi) until October 2002, and (iii) the response of the regular army to the aggression. Thousands of people were forced to flee their homes, creating a humanitarian crisis. Efforts to restore peace succeeded with the signing on March 17, 2003 of a new peace accord that recommitted the government and the Ninja rebel group to the 1999 agreement. Accordingly, the rebels undertook to surrender their arms, and the government undertook to re-integrate their members into civil society under the ongoing demobilization and reintegration program.
9. Recent developments on the security front have helped to consolidate the political stability and military peace achieved in the aftermath of the 2002 elections and the 2003 peace accord, including:
the approval in August-2003 of amnesty provisions for both rebel and government combatants.
The promulgation, on November 12, 2003, of the program for the demobilization, disarmament, and reinsertion of former combatants.
10. With security restored in the area surrounding Brazzaville, the Pool region, the reliability of the vital rail link between Pointe-Noire (the port city and economic capital) and Brazzaville (the administrative capital) has improved considerably, and a concerted effort to improve the train service is underway.
C. Cost of Conflicts
11. As the security situation has improved, the enormity of the destruction left by the last three successive and intense rounds of civil wars has been revealed:
Key social and economic indicators deteriorated or stagnated in the 1990s, and the external debt burden is heavy (see Table II.1).
Large parts of the country were affected but the 1993 and 1997 wars led to more intense violence in the capital, Brazzaville, which is home to about 25 to 30 percent of the population (800,000 people).
The five-month civil war in 1997 inflicted massive destruction on Brazzaville. A large part of the buildings, infrastructure, and productive capital was destroyed and most private property was severely damaged looted, or both. The population suffered substantial casualties, with more than 700,000 people displaced at one point. The cost of the physical damage alone has been estimated at about 37 percent of 1977 GDP.
The damage inflicted by the 1998–99 conflict, which mainly affected the south of the country (although the area around Pointe-Noire was spared), was estimated at about 75 percent of 1999 GDP.
In addition to the direct damage of the war, infrastructure suffered considerable damage from the interruption of maintenance. About half of the 17,000-kilometer road network is no longer passable, and most regional capitals no longer have reliable access to major roads. Entire provinces have no access to clean water. Economic agents have lost assets (buildings, livestock, and tools).
Over 50 percent of the medical structures were ransacked, and educational buildings in the four southernmost provinces suffered considerable damage. Social services are no longer delivered in large parts of the country, particularly in rural areas.
The World Bank estimates that, at the end of 2001, an estimated 7.2 percent of the Congolese adult population (15-49 years) was living with HIV/AIDS. In Pointe-Noire, the prevalence rate increased from 10 percent in 1996 to 14 percent in 2000.
The World Bank estimates that unemployment is affecting more than 50 percent of the active population and that youth are particularly affected: less than 30 percent of those in the 15-to-25-year old bracket have a job, and less than 2 percent are employed in the formal sector.
Republic of Congo: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 1970-2003
Noninterest current expenditure plus domestically financed investment.
In percent of the number of children of secondary school age.
In percent of the number of children under 12 months for immunization against diphtheria, tetanus, and polio.
Republic of Congo: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 1970-2003
| 1970-79 | 1980-89 | 1990-99 | 2000-03 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts | (In percent; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||
| Per capita GDP (in 1995 U.S. dollars) | 633 | 981 | 839 | 791 | ||
| Real GDP growth | 5.5 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 4.1 | ||
| Oil | 44.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | -4.3 | ||
| Non-oil | 3.6 | 5.8 | -2.3 | 10.3 | ||
| Consumer price inflation | 8.1 | 0.4 | 8.2 | 1.6 | ||
| (In percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| Fiscal accounts | ||||||
| Total domestic revenue (excluding grants) | 23.6 | 29.9 | 25.0 | 28.4 | ||
| Primary expenditure and net lending 1/ | 24.3 | 23.6 | 24.0 | 22.6 | ||
| Basic primary budget balance | -0.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 5.8 | ||
| External sector | ||||||
| Trade balance | … | 24.5 | 32.2 | 51.6 | ||
| External debt | 55.5 | 133.1 | 227.2 | 180.8 | ||
| Real effective exchange rate (index, 1990=100) | 109.0 | 97.8 | 86.0 | 80.2 | ||
| Terms of trade (index, 1990=100) | 87.3 | 152.7 | 81.1 | 124.2 | ||
| Social indicators | (In units indicated) | |||||
| Adult illiteracy ratio (in percent of people ages 15 and above) | 60 | 42 | 27 | 19 | ||
| Secondary school enrollment ratio 2/ | 33 | 75 | 54 | 42 | ||
| Immunization ratio 3/ | … | 61 | 50 | 31 | ||
| Life expectancy at birth (in years) | 47 | 51 | 51 | 51 | ||
Noninterest current expenditure plus domestically financed investment.
In percent of the number of children of secondary school age.
In percent of the number of children under 12 months for immunization against diphtheria, tetanus, and polio.
Republic of Congo: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 1970-2003
| 1970-79 | 1980-89 | 1990-99 | 2000-03 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts | (In percent; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||
| Per capita GDP (in 1995 U.S. dollars) | 633 | 981 | 839 | 791 | ||
| Real GDP growth | 5.5 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 4.1 | ||
| Oil | 44.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | -4.3 | ||
| Non-oil | 3.6 | 5.8 | -2.3 | 10.3 | ||
| Consumer price inflation | 8.1 | 0.4 | 8.2 | 1.6 | ||
| (In percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| Fiscal accounts | ||||||
| Total domestic revenue (excluding grants) | 23.6 | 29.9 | 25.0 | 28.4 | ||
| Primary expenditure and net lending 1/ | 24.3 | 23.6 | 24.0 | 22.6 | ||
| Basic primary budget balance | -0.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 5.8 | ||
| External sector | ||||||
| Trade balance | … | 24.5 | 32.2 | 51.6 | ||
| External debt | 55.5 | 133.1 | 227.2 | 180.8 | ||
| Real effective exchange rate (index, 1990=100) | 109.0 | 97.8 | 86.0 | 80.2 | ||
| Terms of trade (index, 1990=100) | 87.3 | 152.7 | 81.1 | 124.2 | ||
| Social indicators | (In units indicated) | |||||
| Adult illiteracy ratio (in percent of people ages 15 and above) | 60 | 42 | 27 | 19 | ||
| Secondary school enrollment ratio 2/ | 33 | 75 | 54 | 42 | ||
| Immunization ratio 3/ | … | 61 | 50 | 31 | ||
| Life expectancy at birth (in years) | 47 | 51 | 51 | 51 | ||
Noninterest current expenditure plus domestically financed investment.
In percent of the number of children of secondary school age.
In percent of the number of children under 12 months for immunization against diphtheria, tetanus, and polio.
This section was prepared by Dhaneshwar Ghura and Carlos Leite.