The staff report for the Request for Stand-By Arrangement on Gabon highlights economic developments and policies. A higher-than-anticipated rise in oil GDP more than offset lower-than-expected growth of non-oil GDP. Overall fiscal performance was strong, as the non-oil primary deficit was reduced by 8.6 percentage points to 8.2 percent of non-oil GDP in 2003. The authorities have strengthened their medium-term program to address the weaknesses in public finances that came to the fore under the staff-monitored program (SMP) and to tackle the impediments to private sector development while improving social indicators.

Abstract

The staff report for the Request for Stand-By Arrangement on Gabon highlights economic developments and policies. A higher-than-anticipated rise in oil GDP more than offset lower-than-expected growth of non-oil GDP. Overall fiscal performance was strong, as the non-oil primary deficit was reduced by 8.6 percentage points to 8.2 percent of non-oil GDP in 2003. The authorities have strengthened their medium-term program to address the weaknesses in public finances that came to the fore under the staff-monitored program (SMP) and to tackle the impediments to private sector development while improving social indicators.

1. This supplement reports on budgetary data through end-March 2004 received since the issuance of the staff report and the implementation of the other prior actions for Board consideration of the request for Stand-By Arrangement.

2. Preliminary data on budgetary execution through March indicate that fiscal performance was in line with the program, and that all the quantitative targets for end-March were met with comfortable margins (Table 1). Non-oil revenue was higher by 0.5 percentage point of GDP, mainly on account of enhanced collection of corporate profit taxes and property taxes. A small excess of CFAF 12 billion (0.4 percent of GDP) was also recorded in oil revenue, reflecting oil prices for the Brent higher than assumed under the program (US$32 per barrel versus US$30 in the program) (Table 2). Expenditures, including the wage bill, were contained within the agreed limits, while spending in the sectors of education, health and social assistance was consistent with the established targets. The targets on the net claims of the banking system on the central government and on the primary fiscal balance were met with margins equivalent to 0.7 percent and 0.6 percent of GDP, respectively. In April and during the first half of May, the price for the Brent averaged US$ 35 per barrel, which is estimated to have resulted in higher oil revenue of CFAF 20 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) during the two months.

Table 1.

Gabon: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets Under the Stand-By Arrangement, 2003–04

(In billions of CFA francs; cumulative flows from January 1st) 1/

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Sources: Gabonese authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

Indicative targets for March 2004. Targets for June, September, and December 2004 are performance criteria under the Stand-By Arrangement.

The performance criterion will be adjusted upward/downward for any lower/higher oil revenues, larger/lower payment of external debt service (net of nonproject external financing disbursements), larger/smaller net reductions in domestic arrears, and smaller/larger privatization proceeds, relative to program targets. The performance criterion will be revised upward for higher-than-programmed reduction in the float up to a limit of CFAF 13 billion. The performance criterion will be adjusted downward for unprogrammed rescheduling/deferment on domestic debt in excess of CFAF 13 billion.

This performance criterion applies not only to debt as defined in point No. 9 of the Guidelines on Performance Criteria with Respect to Foreign Debt, adopted by the IMF Executive Board on August 24, 2000, but also to commitments contracted or guaranteed for which value has not been received. Excluded from this performance criterion are rescheduling arrangements and purchases from the Fund. For purposes of this performance criterion, the term “nonconcessional” means that the debt has a grant element of less than 35 percent calculated on the basis of currency-specific discount rates that are based on the OECD commercial interest reference rates (CIRRs).

Excluded from this performance criterion are rescheduling arrangements, purchases from the Fund, and normal import-related credits.

The nonaccumulation of new external payments arrears will constitute a continuous performance criterion.

As defined in paragraph 10 of the technical memorandum of understanding (TMU). The ceiling will be adjusted downward for unprogrammed rescheduling/deferrals.

The performance criterion on the primary fiscal balance will be adjusted upward/downward for any higher/lower-than-programmed oil revenue.

Noninterest spending excluding foreign-financed investment.

Including the reduction of arrears on the wage bill and the payment of compensations for social violence. Excess oil revenue, or unprogrammed rescheduling/deferment on domestic debt, can be used for additional reduction of the float, up to CFAF 13 billion.

These amounts represent end-2003 stock of arrears and the obligations falling due in 2004 that are reschedulable.

Table 2.

Gabon: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2001–04

(In billions of CFA francs, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Gabonese authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

The 2002 budget column includes CFAF 16.5 billion for telephone bills relating to 2001, which the authorities had classified under domestic debt repayment in the draft budget.

For 2001: equity participation in Compagnie Minière de l’Oguoué (COMILOG) (CFAF 4.1 billion), advance to OPT (CFAF 6.6 billion), the payment of Air Gabon’s debt (CFAF 14.2 billion), and down payments for the purchase of airplanes for Air Gabon (CFAF 13 billion). For 2002: assistance to Air Gabon; and repayment of the CFAF 6.6 billion advance to Gabon Télécom (for the acquisition of a marine cable).

“Other float at the treasury” includes mainly variations in consignments and operations with autonomous bodies.

Including old debt repayments to Société d’Eau et d’Energie de Gabon (SEEG), National Social Security Fund (CNSS), and Office des Postes et Télécommunication (OPT), as well as debt service on new debt agreements with Gabon Télécom, Gabon Poste, Air Gabon’s suppliers, and CNSS. During the last quarter of 2003, there was a deferral of debt obligations amounting to some CFAF 11 billion.

Restructuring costs refer to social costs of privatization and voluntary departures. During 2002, the government also took over suppliers’ credit to Air Gabon and debt owed by public enterprises to CNSS, for CFAF 31 billion and CFAF 36 billion, respectively.

Local authorities consist of variations in local entities’ account balances with the treasury.

The financing gap for the program period is expected to be covered by debt rescheduling.

3. The authorities have implemented all the other prior actions:

  • On May 18, the government adopted a letter of development policy for the forestry sector, prepared in consultation with the World Bank, which includes the main policy reforms for the sector. The letter contains the key features of the reforms called for by the World Bank, including the principle of granting forestry concessions through an auction system, enhanced transparency through the publication of the list of forestry concessions and concession holders, a moratorium on the attribution of new concessions pending the introduction of the auction system, and termination of concessions for concession holders that do not comply with their tax obligations. The letter is expected to be strengthened further in the context of the preparation of the Forestry and Environment project in cooperation with the World Bank and other donors, expected to be finalized before end-2004.

  • On May 20, a consultant was selected, through an international tender, to conduct an in-depth study for the restructuring of the timber marketing board SNBG, on the basis of terms of reference approved by the World Bank.

  • On May 10, Fund staff received a report on SNBG’s implementation of the cost-cutting measures adopted by the company’s board on December 19, 2003. Spending during the first quarter of 2004 was 16 percent below budget limits.

  • The set of measures to reduce the wage bill became effective during the month of April following instructions of the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance.

  • A decree signed by the Prime Minister on April 26 abrogated the April 2 decree, which had widened the list of products under the price surveillance regime.

4. In early May, the Senate approved the new general civil service statute providing for a merit-based promotion system. The law is now with the National Assembly.

5. On May 14, in a letter to the President of the World Bank, the authorities expressed their interest in joining the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).

Gabon: Request for Stand-By Arrangement
Author: International Monetary Fund