Mali
Selected Issues and Statistical Annex

The report reviews the basic data, and selected social and demographic indicators of Mali. It also analyzes the revised methodology for national accounts. It provides the details of the IMF’s projections and estimates of Mali’s gross domestic product at constant 1987 prices, in previous and new methodologies. It also compares origin and use of resources, implementation of the public investment program, 1996–2002, agricultural production and average producer prices 1996/97–2002/03, production and cost of cotton fiber, government expenditure, revenue performance, functional classification of budgetary expenditures during 1996–2002, claims on the government, 1996–October 2003, tax summary, and so on.

Abstract

The report reviews the basic data, and selected social and demographic indicators of Mali. It also analyzes the revised methodology for national accounts. It provides the details of the IMF’s projections and estimates of Mali’s gross domestic product at constant 1987 prices, in previous and new methodologies. It also compares origin and use of resources, implementation of the public investment program, 1996–2002, agricultural production and average producer prices 1996/97–2002/03, production and cost of cotton fiber, government expenditure, revenue performance, functional classification of budgetary expenditures during 1996–2002, claims on the government, 1996–October 2003, tax summary, and so on.

Revised Methodology for National Accounts

1. In September 2002, the Council of Ministers of the West African Economic and Monetary Union adopted a set of rules harmonizing the methodology for compiling the national accounts of all states in the union.1 The purpose of the new rules is to ensure that the data used in determining whether countries observe the union’s convergence criteria are compiled according to the same methodology. The main points of the new rules areas follows:

  • the inclusion of the imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings;

  • the inclusion of construction by households;

  • the inclusion of consumption of fixed capital by the government;

  • the exclusion of value-added tax from the value added of each sector; and

  • the recording of the agricultural production in year n for crops striding year n/n+1;

2. In addition, in the case of Mali, the value added of the cotton and rice sectors were split into two parts, with the activities relating to the production of seed cotton and rice recorded in the primary sector, and the activities related to ginning and hulling recorded in the secondary sector.

3. The new methodology results in large changes in the level of both nominal and real GDP, as well as in their yearly growth rates (Box 1 and Statistical Appendix Tables 1 and 2). The level was raised by the inclusions of the imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings and the consumption of fixed capital but reduced by the exclusion of value-added taxes. The large revisions in annual growth rates reflect the shift in the timing of crop recording. Such a shift has a major impact on growth because of the importance of the agricultural sector and the large fluctuations in output, which depends mostly on uncertain rainfall.

4. The production and marketing of crops generally span two years, with the growing season occupying mostly the second half of each calendar year and the marketing being done mostly in the first half of the following year.2 In compliance with the System of National Accounts 1993 recommendations that output should be recorded at the time it is produced, agricultural production spanning years n and n + 1 is now recorded under year n.

Mali: Impact of Change in Methodology For Rea GDP

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Sources: Malian authorities.

Includes cotton ginning and rice hulling.

5. Imputed rents cover the rental services for dwellings occupied by their owners. Until now, only market rental services were used to evaluate rental services in the national accounts. The broadening of the account coverage to include imputed rents takes into account the estimated rents that home owners would have to pay if they were renting. The imputed rents are estimated on the basis of the household survey of 1987. The values for subsequent years are extrapolated from population growth.

6. Fixed capital consumption of government is a production cost; it is defined as the decrease in the current value of the stock of fixed assets held and used by the government to produce goods and services, of foreseeable obsolescence or of accidental damage that may be considered normal. Fixed capital consumption is equivalent to the data on depreciation. A life span of five years was chosen for equipment, and a lifespan often years was chosen for buildings and public works.

7. The changes in the methodology are also reflected in the demand side (Statistical Tables 3 and 4); in particular, in the measurement of overall consumption and gross fixed capital formation. Household consumption includes imputed rents, and government consumption takes into account the fixed capital consumption of general government. Finally, the recording of agricultural production in year n results in an increase (or decrease) in stocks, when production increases (or decreases), since it is assumed to be consumed the following year. This may result in large fluctuations in gross capital formation, but not in gross fixed capital formation.

Table 1.

Mali: Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1987 Prices 1996-2002

(New methodology)

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Sources: Malian authorities and staff estimates.

Includes groundnuts, tobacco, and fruits.

Table 2.

Mali: Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1987 Prices, 1996-2002

(Previous methodology)

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Source: Malian authorities.

Previous methodology includes cotton, groundnuts, tobacco, fruits, vegetables, and others.

In billions of CFA francs.

Table 3.

Mali: Origin and Use of Resources, 1996-2002

(New methodology)

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Sources: Malian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 4.

Mali: Origin and Use of Resources, 1996-2002

(Previous methodology)

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Sources: Malian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 5.

Mali: Agricultural Production and Average Producer Prices, 1996/97-2002/03 1/

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Source: Malian authorities.

The crop year is April-March; the marketing year is November-October.

Except for cotton, the marketing of agricultural products by official agencies was discontinued in 1995.

Actual price for first-quality cotton, including rebate based on profit of the cotton company (CMDT).

Table 6.

Mali: Cereals - Cultivated Area and Rainfall, 1995/96-2002/03 1/

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Sources: Malian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

The crop year is April-March; the marketing year is November-October.

Deviation in percent from the annual average for the 1960-90 period.

Rainfall is measured for the specific area where each cereal is grown.

Table 7.

Mali: Quarterly Retail Prices for Cereals, 1996-2003

(In CFA francs per kilogram)

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Source: Malian authorities.

Free market prices represent the average of prices prevailing in national markets.

Nine months.

Estimates.

Table 8.

Mali: Office du Niger - Indicators of Activity, 1994/95-2002/03 1/

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Source: Malian authorities.

The crop year is April-March.

Table 9.

Mali: Implementation of the Public Investment Program, 1996-2002

(In billions of CFA francs)

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Sources: Malian authorities (Direction Nationale de la Planification: Repépértoire National des Projets).
Table 10.

Mali: Investment Budget for 1996-2003 and Existing Commitments for Public Investment, 2004-06 1/

(In billion of CFA francs)

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Source: Malian authorities.

Data differ from those included in tables on government financial operations, which assume an implementation rate of 80 percent.

Programme Triennal d’Investissement (Triannual Investment Program).