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© 2003 International Monetary Fund

December 2003

Corrected: 12/29/03

IMF Country Report No. 03/393

Bulgaria: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module, Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Data Module for Bulgaria was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 12, 2003. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Bulgaria or the Executive Board of the IMF.

The response by the Authorities on this report, and the Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) are also included.

The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.

To assist the IMF in evaluating the publication policy, reader comments are invited and may be sent by e-mail to publicationpolicy@imf.org.

Copies of this report are available to the public from

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

BULGARIA

Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module

Prepared by the Statistics Department

Approved by Carol S. Carson and Michael C. Deppler

December 12, 2003

Contents

  • Acronyms

  • Executive Summary

  • I. Introduction

  • II. Data Dissemination Practices and the Special Data Dissemination Standard

    • Data Dimension: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness

    • Access dimension

    • Integrity dimension

    • Quality dimension

  • III. Summary Assessment of Data Quality

    • Prerequisites of quality

    • Integrity

    • Methodological soundness

    • Accuracy and reliability

    • Serviceability

    • Accessibility

  • IV. Staff’s Recommendations

    • Cross-cutting Recommendations

    • National Accounts

    • Consumer Price Index

    • Producer Price Index

    • Government Finance Statistics

    • Monetary Statistics

    • Balance of Payments Statistics

  • Text Tables

  • 1. Overview of Current Practices Regarding Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data Compared to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS)

  • 2. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Presentation of Results

Acronyms

ARC

Advance Release Calendar

BNB

Bulgarian National Bank

BOP

Balance of Payments

BPM5

Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition

COICOP

Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose

CPI

Consumer Price Index

DQAF

Data Quality Assessment Framework

DSBB

Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board

ECB

European Central Bank

ESA 95

European System of Accounts, 1995

Eurostat

Statistical Office of the European Communities

EU

European Union

GDDS

General Data Dissemination System

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GFS

Government Finance Statistics

GFSM 1986

A Manual on Government Finance Statistics, 1986

GFSM 2001

Government Financial Statistics Manual 2001

IIP

International Investment Position

IMF

International Monetary Fund

ITRS

International Transactions Reporting System

MFSM

Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual

MOF

Ministry of Finance

NACE, Rev. 1

Standard Classification of Economic Activities within the European Communities, Revision 1

NAO

National Audit Office

NSI

National Statistical Institute

ODCs

Other Depository Corporations

PPI

Producer Price Index

PRODCOM

List of Products of the European Communities

ROSC

Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes

SDDS

Special Data Dissemination Standard

Executive Summary

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides a review of Bulgaria’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), complemented by an in-depth assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics. The agencies that compile the statistics assessed in this report are the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and the National Statistical Institute (NSI). The assessment was carried out by a mission from the IMF Statistics Department that visited Sofia during January 15–30, 2003.

The mission reached the following main conclusions:

  • SDDS subscription: Bulgaria participates in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), and meets or exceeds SDDS requirements for most of the data sets. However, among other requirements, the Reserve Template data need to be compiled and disseminated, and timeliness needs to be improved for certain real sector data. The authorities indicated their strong commitment to subscribe to the SDDS shortly, and have appointed an SDDS Coordinator.

  • Prerequisites of quality: Bulgarian statistical agencies have a legal and institutional framework that supports statistical quality. But resources for the balance of payments, national accounts, and price statistics are not sufficient for the requirements of these statistical programs, especially in view of the intention to implement the European Union guidelines in these areas. All agencies demonstrate awareness of quality as a cornerstone of their statistical work.

  • Integrity: All agencies demonstrate professionalism, and provide guidelines on ethical conduct for staff. Pre-release access to government users is documented, but for the NSI the GDDS metadata are inaccurate.

  • Methodological soundness: The Bulgarian national accounts, CPI, PPI, government finance statistics (GFS), and monetary statistics generally follow internationally accepted guidelines on definitions, scope, classification, sectorization, and valuation. Certain improvements to scope (national accounts, CPI, and GFS), classification (monetary) and the basis of recording (national accounts, GFS, and monetary) could be made. More substantial improvements should be made to the balance of payments (BOP) statistics.

  • Accuracy and reliability: Source data and statistical techniques are generally sound for national accounts, and monetary statistics. Improvements could be made to certain aspects of the price indices and GFS. In the case of balance of payments, significant improvements are required. There is also scope for improving the rigor of revisions practices and studies.

  • Serviceability: Bulgarian statistics are generally relevant, consistent, and available on a timely basis with good frequency. However, there is no formal user group to monitor the relevance of BOP statistics. Timeliness is a concern for the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, the PPI, and GFS. The macroeconomic statistics are broadly consistent. Several datasets do not provide the public with proper analyses of revisions and, for the GFS, the revisions policy is not published and preliminary data are not clearly identified.

  • Accessibility: Most datasets are readily available to the public with the exception of the PPI, while it is being redeveloped. Also, more detailed GFS financing data should be published. Suitable metadata are available to the public except for GFS and the national accounts, for which some available details are not published. All datasets provide adequate assistance to users, except that the PPI is not included in the NSI catalog.

Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

BULGARIA

Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module

Response by the Authorities

December 12, 2003

Contents

  • A. Cross-Cutting Recommendations

  • B. National Accounts

  • C. Consumer Price Index

  • D. Producer Price Index

  • E. Government Finance Statistics

  • F. Monetary Statistics

  • G. Balance of Payments Statistics

Reaction from the Bulgarian Authorities on Fund Staff Recommendations

The Staff Mission from IMF, which was in Sofia during January 15–30, 2003, has sent a revised version of the draft Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module for our comments. Based on the results of the data quality assessment, discussions with the Bulgarian authorities in the statistics compiling agencies, and responses from data users, the mission report proposed recommendations to increase further Bulgaria’s adherence to international statistical standards.

The first part deals with comments on Fund Staff’s Cross-Cutting Recommendations, received from all the reviewing agencies (except where noted)—the National Statistical Institute (NSI), the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), and the Ministry of Finance (MoF). The remaining parts deal with comments by NSI on the sections relating to the National Accounts, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Producer Price Index (PPI), comments by the MoF on the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) section, and comments by the BNB on the Monetary and Balance of Payments (BOP) sections.

Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

BULGARIA

Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

Prepared by the Statistics Department

Approved by Carol S. Carson and Michael C. Deppler

December 12, 2003

This document contains a detailed assessment by dataset of the elements and indicators that underlie the data quality dimensions discussed in Bulgaria’s Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module. It also includes as appendices the DQAF generic framework and the results of the users’ survey.

Contents

  • Acronyms

  • I. National Accounts

  • II. Price Statistics (Consumer Price Index)

  • III. Price Statistics (Producer Price Index)

  • IV. Government Finance Statistics

  • V. Monetary Statistics

  • VI. Balance of Payments Statistics

  • Text Tables

  • Table 1. Summary Presentation of National Accounts

  • Table 2. Summary Presentation of Statistics (Consumer Price Index)

  • Table 3. Summary Presentation of Statistics (Producer Price Index)

  • Table 4. Summary Presentation of Government Finance Statistics

  • Table 5. Summary Presentation of Monetary Statistics

  • Table 6. Summary Presentation of Balance of Payment Statistics

  • Appendices

  • I. Summary of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS)

  • II. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Generic Framework

  • III. Users’ Survey

Acronyms

1993 SNA

System of National Accounts 1993

ARC

Advance Release Calendar

BGN

Bulgarian lev (plural-leva)

BOP

Balance of Payments

BNB

Bulgarian National Bank

BPM5

Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition

BULSTAT

Unified Register of Economic Units in Bulgaria

COFOG

Classification of Functions of Government

COICOP

Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose

CPI

Consumer Price Index

DQAF

Data Quality Assessment Framework

DSBB

Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board

EC

European Commission

ECB

European Central Bank

ESA 95

European System of Accounts, 1995

ESS

European Statistical System

Eurostat

Statistical Office of the European Communities

EU

European Union

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

FMIS

Financial Management Information System

GDDS

General Data Dissemination System

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GFCF

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

GFS

Government Finance Statistics

GFSM 1986

A Manual on Government Finance Statistics, 1986

GFSM 2001

Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001

HBS

Household Budget Survey

IAS

International Accounting Standards 2002

ICD

Informatics and Communications Directorate of BNB

IIP

International Investment Position

IMF

International Monetary Fund

ITRS

International Transactions Reporting System

LFS

Labor Force Survey

MBSD

Money and Banking Statistics Division in BNB’s Statistics Directorate

MFSM

Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual

MOF

Ministry of Finance

NACE, Rev. 1

Standard Classification of Economic Activities within the European Communities, Revision 1

NAD

National Accounts Division

NAO

National Audit Office

NPSS

National Program for Statistical Surveys

NSDP

National Summary Data Page

NSI

National Statistical Institute

ODCs

Other Depository Corporations

PPI

Producer Price Index

PRODCOM

List of Products of the European Communities

ROSC

Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes

RSO

Regional Statistical Office

SDDS

Special Data Dissemination Standard

UVI

Unit Value Index

VAT

Value-Added Tax

Detailed Assessment Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

The following detailed information on indicators of statistical practices in the areas of the national accounts, prices, government finance, money and banking, and balance of payments statistics was gathered from publicly available documents and information provided by the officials. This information, which is organized along the lines of the generic DQAF (see Appendix II), was used to prepare the summary assessment of data quality elements, based on a four-part scale of observance, shown in Bulgaria’s Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module.

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