This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an assessment of data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). It also assesses the data dissemination practices against the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements, focusing on coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. It also provides an assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics.

Abstract

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an assessment of data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). It also assesses the data dissemination practices against the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements, focusing on coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. It also provides an assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics.

I. Introduction

1. The data module of this Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides a summary of the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of selected data categories. It is complemented by a detailed assessment of the quality of national accounts, consumer and producer price indices, and government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) developed by the IMF’s Statistics Department. This report is based on information provided prior to and during a staff visit from November 5–21, 2002,1 as well as on publicly available information.

2. Section II includes an assessment of data dissemination practices against the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). At the request of the authorities, data dissemination practices were also assessed against the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements, focusing on coverage, periodicity, and timeliness (see Section III). The key issues that would need to be dealt with prior to the Kyrgyz Republic’s subscription to the SDDS are identified. Section IV presents a summary assessment of the quality of the principal macroeconomic datasets, following the dataset-specific assessment frameworks. Finally, Section V sets out recommendations on ways to improve the macroeconomic statistics.

II. Data Dissemination Practices and the General Data Dissemination System

3. Data dissemination practices are assessed against the GDDS.2 The Kyrgyz Republic has participated in the GDDS since February 2001; metadata updated to reflect changes in compilation and dissemination practices are posted on the IMF Data Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB).3

4. Macroeconomic statistics assessed in this report are compiled and disseminated by three agencies, as follows: (1) the National Statistics Committee (NSC) is responsible for national accounts and price statistics; (2) the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is responsible for government finance statistics; and (3) the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) is responsible for monetary and balance of payments statistics. Access to macroeconomic statistics is provided through official publications and at the following Internet websites:

5. Regarding the data dimension (coverage, periodicity, and timeliness), the Kyrgyz Republic exceeds most of the GDDS recommendations for the core comprehensive frameworks and recommended indicators (Table 1). The Kyrgyz Republic also meets most of the data extensions encouraged by the GDDS.

Table 1.

Kyrgyz Republic: Overview of Current Practices Regarding Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data Compared to the General Data Dissemination System

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Italics indicate encouraged categoriesNote: (D) daily; (W) weekly; (M) monthly;(Q) quarterly; and (A) annual

6. The quality, integrity, and access dimensions of the GDDS are addressed through the DQAF in Section IV.

7. Plans for improvement are an integral part of the GDDS. Updates to the GDDS plans for improvement, which are currently posted on the DSBB, are shown in Table 2.

Table 2.

Kyrgyz Republic: Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Presentation of Results

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Paragraph numbers refer to Section III, Summary Assessment of Data Quality, in the present document.

Authorities’ plans as of November, 2002

Key to symbols: NA = Not Applicable; O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO =Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observe

III. Data Dissemination Practices and Special Data Dissemination Standard

8. The IMF’s SDDS is a “best practice” disclosure standard that focuses on encouraging the authorities to provide information to users, including information that will enable users to assess the data.4

9. A review of data dissemination practices against the SDDS requirements for the data dimension, and the advance release calendar of the access dimension, shows that the Kyrgyz Republic meets most of the requirements. The areas that need to be addressed to enable subscription to the SDDS are the following:

  • Compilation and dissemination of data on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity using the IMF’s template (reserves template);

  • Dissemination of gross official reserves with the SDDS prescribed periodicity and timeliness (monthly periodicity with weekly timeliness are prescribed, whereas the Kyrgyz Republic disseminates gross official reserves with quarterly periodicity and a 3-month timeliness);

  • Coverage of general government operations (should also include budgetary and extrabudgetary operations);

  • Timeliness of the analytical accounts of the central bank with a breakdown of claims on public and private sectors, as well as data on the external position (current lag of about three weeks, compared to the SDDS requirement of two weeks);

  • Dissemination of interest rates and the share price index with daily periodicity;

  • Development and dissemination of discrete quarterly GDP estimates;

  • Dissemination of the maturity breakdown of external debt data; and

  • Dissemination of advance release calendars for all SDDS data categories.

10. By vigorously pursuing an action plan to address these issues, the Kyrgyz Republic could be in a position to subscribe to the SDDS within one year

IV. Summary Assessment of Data Quality

11. Since mid-2001, the IMF has complemented the GDDS and SDDS elements of the ROSC data module with an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s DQAF. The DQAF comprises a generic framework, and a set of dataset-specific frameworks.5 The frameworks cover a set of prerequisites and five dimensions of data quality—integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility.6

12. An assessment of six macroeconomic datasets (national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics) was conducted using the frames of reference provided by the dataset-specific DQAFs. The information resulting from the application of this framework to the Kyrgyz Republic’s statistical system is presented below, following the structure of the DQAF. Conclusions are also presented in the form of a summary table in which the assessment of data practices is made on a qualitative basis, using a four-part scale (Table 2).

13. In summary, the Kyrgyz Republic’s macroeconomic statistics have improved significantly in recent years and are generally of good quality. The statistics provided to the IMF are broadly adequate to conduct effective surveillance even though the IMF staff identified some shortcomings that may constrain accurate and timely analysis of economic and financial developments and the formulation of appropriate policies.

Prerequisites of quality

This category in the DQAF identifies conditions within the agency in charge of producing statistics that have an impact on data quality. The elements within the category refer to the legal and institutional environment, resources, and quality awareness.

14. The NSC, which is responsible for the national accounts, the consumer price index, and the producer price index, among other datasets, is at the center of the national statistical system as provided for by the Law on Statistics, last amended in June 2002. This law and the associated regulations that articulate its operational aspects provide an enabling legal and institutional environment that sets out the responsibility for the relevant statistical work, provides for data sharing and coordination, calls for protection of the confidentiality of individual responses, and provides for mandatory statistical reporting to surveys cleared by the NSC. However, the identification of the core surveys that need to be cleared by the NSC would strengthen methodological consistency and reduce response burden. Within the NSC, effective measures are in place to ensure maximum utilization of available resources. Staff resources are qualified and well trained and, although adequate for ongoing work, are not sufficient to undertake developmental or additional analytical work. Computer and financial resources are inadequate for the NSC current work program and pose serious constraints on future statistical development. As a result of the NSC policy of actively seeking donor contributions for statistical development, its own resources have been substantially complemented with donor contributions. The NSC maintains a high sense of quality awareness, as evidenced by the preparation of the Program for Statistical Development for 2001–2005, which constitutes the main tool for statistical coordination and includes research and methodological projects designed to enhance data quality. This awareness is further evidenced in the NSC’s decision to consult a broader spectrum of users, such as the newly founded Statistics Society, in the preparation of its annual work programs and as a forum for obtaining users’ feedback on the relevance of the disseminated data.

15. The MOF has a legal and institutional environment that supports its responsibility for the compilation and dissemination of data on budget execution, although the legislation does not specifically require compilation of comprehensive government finance statistics and dissemination to the public. Staff resources are broadly adequate to produce budget execution data. However, computer resources are barely sufficient for current work, particularly in the regions. To implement the system set out in the Government Financial Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) over the medium term, staff need substantial training in the government finance statistics methodology, and computer resources need to be significantly reinforced. As for quality awareness, the primary objective is complete accuracy of budget execution data mainly for government use. Until recently, little attention had been paid to the needs of a broader spectrum of users. However, reflecting the increased awareness of the importance of publicly disseminating statistics on government operations, the MOF introduced a quarterly publication in early 2002, and appointed a Press Secretary to publicize the work of the MOF.

16. In general, the NBKR has a legal and institutional environment that supports its responsibilities for compiling and disseminating monetary and balance of payments statistics. Although the Law on the NBKR does not specifically mandate the compilation of monetary statistics, it empowers the NBKR to establish statistical standards, issue directives, and require the necessary information from the banking system. The Law on the NBKR designates the bank as the compiling agency for the balance of payments statistics, provides for data sharing and coordination, in particular with the NSC with regard to the balance of payments compilation, calls for the nondisclosure of data on individual institutions or transactions, and provides for the public dissemination of main statistics. However, current provisions, namely secrecy provisions, affect NBKR’s ability to collect information needed to validate the accuracy of balance of payments source data. Despite measures to address the high rate of staff turnover, staff resources are not entirely commensurate with the NBKR’s current statistical programs, and substantial training is required. Financial and computer resources are adequate to support the statistical activities of the central bank. Although there is no program for statistical development or a formal quality program in the NBKR, quality awareness is evidenced by the active interactions, including round tables, with users to foster greater statistical awareness and facilitate the identification of emerging needs.

Integrity

Integrity identifies features that support firm adherence to objectivity in the collection, compilation, and dissemination of statistics so as to maintain users’ confidence. Elements refer to the professionalism and ethical standards that should guide policies and practices, which should be reinforced by their transparency.

17. Regulations and practices in place support the professionalism of the NSC staff. The NSC professional independence is recognized in the Law on Statistics. Statistics are compiled in an impartial manner by professional staff who are trained in the relevant statistical concepts and techniques. Choices concerning data sources and statistical techniques are based solely on statistical considerations. Transparency of statistical policies and practices is promoted, among other things, by the public availability of the terms and conditions under which the NSC functions, the identification of NSC products, and the provision of advance notice concerning major changes in methodology. Guidelines on the ethical standards expected of the NSC staff are clearly specified in the NSC Professional Ethics Code, modeled after the Civil Servants Ethics Code approved in 2001. Staff are well informed of their responsibilities.

18. The statistical activities of the MOF are marked by the staff’s professionalism supported by the legal requirement to report on budget execution based on the Treasury accounting system. With regard to transparency, the laws on the principles of the Treasury and the budget legislation are disseminated to the public. However, data published in the MOF’s quarterly bulletin are not identified as statistical products. Guidelines on the ethical standards expected of the staff are clearly specified in the Civil Service Law, supported by the Civil Servants Ethics Code, which are well known to the staff.

19. The NBKR staff demonstrate professionalism. The compilation of statistics on an impartial basis is supported by statutory provisions, and the choices of sources and methods are informed solely by statistical considerations. Professionalism of NBKR staff is promoted by encouraging participation in meetings with other professional compilers, other central banks, and international organizations. As for transparency, the terms and conditions under which the NBKR compiles statistics are known to the public only for balance of payments statistics. No advance notice of major changes in methodology is provided to users. Prerelease access by the government to the statistics compiled by the NBKR is made public. Guidelines on ethical standards expected of the staff are clearly specified in the NBKR Ethics Code, and staff are well informed of these guidelines.

Methodological soundness

Methodological soundness refers to the application of international standards, guidelines, and agreed practices. Application of such standards, which are specific to the dataset, is indicative of the soundness of the data and fosters international comparability. Elements refer to the basic building blocks of concepts and definitions, scope, classification and sectorization, and basis for recording.

20. The national accounts follow, in principle, the general framework and concepts and definitions of the 1993 SNA. The scope is in accord with international recommendations. The NSC compiles quarterly and annual GDP using the current and constant/comparable prices as well as annual supply and use tables. The delimitation of the constituent units of the economy and the coverage of the production and the asset boundaries are broadly consistent with the 1993 SNA. The national accounts still use the classifications of the Material Product System, but are in the process of being converted to an internationally accepted-based classification. The basis of recording is broadly in line with the 1993 SNA. Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. Although government-related transactions are recorded on a cash basis, an attempt is made to adjust salaries and wages to an accrual basis.

21. The consumer price index follows the concepts and definitions recommended in the Consumer Price Index Manual (under preparation) and the 1993 SNA. The scope of the CPI is broadly consistent with international standards, covering all urban resident households of all sizes and income levels. However, households in rural areas, which represent the majority of the population, are not covered. The classification and sectorization of consumption activity follows international standards. Regarding the basis for recording, the weights and prices used in the CPI are based on actual market transactions inclusive of discounts and trade and transport margins. Prices are recorded on an accrual basis.

22. The producer price index follows the concepts and definitions recommended in the Producer Price Index Manual (under preparation) and the 1993 SNA for determining index output weights. The scope of the PPI relates to the core mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water industries, although the prices of most exports are excluded. The classification, and sectorization used in the PPI are consistent with international standards. The basis for recording fully reflects transaction prices, valued at basic prices, and accrual reporting.

23. The government finance statistics generally follow the concepts and definitions of the GFSM 1986, and migration to the GFSM 2001 is under consideration. The scope of the government finance statistics falls short of the international standards in that it does not consolidate data on the Social Fund, the externally financed Public Investment Program (PIP), and the financial transactions with domestic banks. The classification of operations abides broadly by the economic and functional classifications of the GFSM 1986, although data on the economic classification of expenditure are not publicly disseminated. Classification of outstanding debt does not follow the GFSM 1986. The basis for recording is consistent with the GFSM 1986.

24. The analytical framework used for compiling monetary statistics reflects concepts and definitions presented in the MFSM. However, the residency criterion is not consistently applied in that the currency denomination is used to classify some transactions between foreign and domestic units. Another deviation from the MFSM guidelines relates to the inclusion of the deposit liabilities of banks in liquidation in broad money (M2x). The scope of the monetary statistics is broadly in accordance with MFSM guidelines. Following revisions to the charts of accounts of the NBKR and commercial banks, the classification of instruments and the sectorization of institutional units follow the MFSM guidelines. However, the level of disaggregation of financial instruments by resident institutional sectors is insufficient, and the classification of some securities deviates from the MFSM. The basis for recording of flows and stocks is not fully consistent with the MFSM. The general valuation principle for financial assets and liabilities is based on current market prices, although there are some financial instruments valued at book value. Also, accrual accounting is not strictly followed.

25. The concepts and definitions employed in the balance of payments statistics broadly conform with the guidelines presented in the BPM5, except for some deviations from the residency criteria and the definitions of some transactions. With regard to scope, in principle all transactions with nonresidents are covered except for some transactions in the international reserve component and some external liabilities of enterprises. In general, the classification of transactions accords with the recommendations outlined in the BPM5. However, loans guaranteed by the government are not attributed to the relevant sectors, and rent on land is misclassified. The basis for recording of balance of payments transactions generally follows international standards with respect to valuation at market prices. However, reserve assets transactions are not converted into U.S. dollars using market exchange rates and most balance of payments data are not recorded on an accrual basis.

Accuracy and reliability

Accuracy and reliability identifies features that contribute to the goal that data portray reality. Elements refer to identified features of the source data, statistical techniques, and supporting assessments and validation.

26. The national accounts draw on a wide range of source data from direct surveys as well as from administrative data sources. The NSC has a comprehensive program of surveys based on a well-established Statistical Business Register. Special surveys are undertaken for estimating the shadow economy. However, the source data do not always comply with the requirements of the 1993 SNA, and the trade-off between accuracy and timeliness of monthly and quarterly statistics is heavily weighted in favor of timeliness. Statistical techniques are sound, well established, and adjusted as new data sources become available. The industrial and product detail is adequate, and the annual estimates are compiled within a supply and use table framework. However, use of time series analysis techniques, such as seasonal adjustment and benchmarking, is at an early stage but will be implemented with the move to discrete estimates of quarterly national accounts. The national accounts staff routinely validate source data. The NSC employs a verification process to perform a quality check on field operations. This process detects any major errors. In addition, the national accounts staff assess and validate of intermediate data through internal consistency checks. Comparisons are also made with related indicators on an ad hoc basis, but could benefit from a more systematic approach. Analyses of revisions are undertaken to improve the statistical process. More extensive and systematic revision studies will have to await a longer time series of consistent national accounts data.

27. The data sources available for the consumer and producer price indices are generally good, though there is some question as to whether the nonobserved economy is adequately represented in the weights and the price collections. The main producer price index would benefit by broadening the coverage of industry output. The statistical techniques for both indices are generally sound, although the approach to assessing quality changes needs improvement. The use of national weights for the compilation of each of the regional consumer price index series is questionable. Processes followed to assess and validate source and intermediate data follow international standards for both indices. Although the monthly indices are designated as preliminary, revisions are rare and thus revision studies have not been conducted.

28. For government finance statistics, the main data source is the budgetary accounting and reporting system maintained by the Treasury, which covers both the central (republican) government and local government. Although the Social Fund also reports monthly and annually to the MOF, these data, together with the externally financed PIP and the data on domestic bank financing, are not consolidated with budget execution data. Data on outstanding debt are taken from the MOF’s Debt Management Division database, which, however, does not cover borrowing from domestic banks. The source data are classified by economic and functional classifications of the GFSM 1986, and the Treasury Law ensures that reports are timely and highly accurate. Special statistical techniques are not necessary because the data on government operations are compiled by aggregation of budget monitoring returns. Both source and intermediate data are assessed and validated by various means including internal and external audit. Discrepancies in financing items between the government finance and the monetary statistics are yet to be resolved. The current government operations statistics system is based on cash flow, the data become available very quickly, and revisions to the initial monthly data are insignificant. Consequently, revision studies are not undertaken.

29. The source data for the compilation of monetary statistics are comprehensive. However, information is not sufficient for a more detailed sectoral breakdown. Statistical techniques employed are sound. Electronic reporting, data processing procedures, and documentation of data compilation practices enable the production of accurate and timely monetary statistics. Fully automated assessment and validation of source data support reliable monetary statistics. However, procedures for assessment and validation of intermediate data need to be improved. Relevant monetary data are not validated against balance of payments data, and material differences between monetary statistics and other sectoral statistics (balance of payments and government finance statistics) need further investigation. The NBKR does not undertake revision studies on a routine basis since data are final when first released.

30. The NBKR employs an elaborate data collection program for the balance of payments statistics comprising a dependable International Transactions Reporting System and a survey of enterprises with external debt liabilities. These data sources are supplemented mainly with trade data compiled by the State Customs Inspectorate (SCI)and information on the international trade in services and foreign direct investment derived from surveys conducted by the NSC. The statistical techniques employed by the NSC and the NBKR in compiling balance of payments data are generally sound, and estimation is based on data from ad hoc surveys. However, an efficient data processing system for the SCI is yet to be developed. Assessment and validation procedures are generally sound. However, temporal consistency checks need to be strengthened, and additional investigations of discrepancies need to be undertaken. Studies and analyses of revisions should be developed to inform statistical processes.

Serviceability

Serviceability focuses on practical aspects of how well a dataset meets users’ needs. Elements refer to the extent to which data are relevant, produced, and disseminated in a timely fashion with appropriate periodicity, are consistent internally and with other datasets, and follow a predictable revisions policy.

31. The NSC has undertaken a major effort to assess the relevance of the statistical series, including the national accounts. Frequent and regular contacts are maintained with users, including consultation at the stage of preparation of the annual statistical work programs. In 2002 the Statistical Society of the Kyrgyz Republic was founded with the express purpose of providing a forum for discussion of statistical issues and articulation of user needs. The timeliness of the annual and quarterly national accounts meets the SDDS requirements. With regard to consistency, quarterly and annual national accounts estimates incorporate the relevant government finance and balance of payments statistics components without further adjustments and are subject to internal consistency checks. The revision policy of the national accounts estimates is stable and known, and preliminary and revised data are clearly identified and explained.

32. As part of the NSC effort to enhance the relevance of both the CPI and the PPI, the NSC maintains close relations with users (see above). The timeliness and periodicity of both indices meet the SDDS requirements. The indices are internally consistent and are conceptually compatible with national accounts statistics. The revisions policy and practice for both indices need to be clarified with users, as monthly data are designated as preliminary, but rarely revised.

33. Although before 2002 the MOF focused mainly on ensuring the relevance of the statistics for budget policy formulation and monitoring, progress was made in targeting a wider audience. However, systematic processes to monitor the utility of the government finance statistics in meeting the needs of the wider user community are yet to be developed. The timeliness and periodicity of these statistics meet the SDDS requirements, but data on financing are not disseminated with the recommended breakdowns (by currency, maturity, debt holder, or instrument, as relevant). Automated checks are undertaken to ensure internal consistency of the budget execution data. There are discrepancies between government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics. Data that are published on a cumulative basis are not revised regularly, and revisions to monthly data, though rare and not statistically significant, are not identified for the public.

34. The relevance and practical utility of monetary statistics in meeting users’ needs are not monitored regularly, although queries on monetary statistics are encouraged. Data timeliness and periodicity are close to meeting the SDDS requirements. However, the timeliness of the analytical accounts of the central bank with the breakdown of data on claims on public and private sectors, and the data on the external position, would need to be improved to meet the SDDS requirements. Quality control procedures ensure internal consistency, but breaks in time series are not always identified and explained. Iinconsistencies exist between monetary statistics and balance of payments statistics. Some inconsistencies also exist between monetary statistics and government borrowing/financing from the banking system. Monetary data are considered final when first released and are not subject to regular and publicized revisions. Users are not aware of this policy.

35. Processes to monitor the relevance of balance of payments statistics are mainly geared to meet government needs. Queries on the balance of payments statistics are encouraged, although there is room for improving the monitoring of these queries to determine the extent to which users’ needs are being met. Timeliness and periodicity meet the SDDS requirements. Annual balance of payments statistics are derived as the sum of the four quarters and, therefore, quarterly and annual statistics are consistent. Consistency among balance of payments components is monitored, but net errors and omissions are significant and quite volatile. There are discrepancies with monetary statistics and public external debt data, and work is proceeding towards consistency between balance of payments data and international investment position data. The current account data are consistent with the rest of the world account in the national accounts. The revision policy is not stated publicly, but new source data are incorporated as soon as they become available during the year.

Accessibility

Accessibility deals with the availability of information to users. Element refers to the extent to which data and metadata are clear and easily available and to which assistance to the users is adequate to help them find and use the data.

36. The national accounts are readily accessible, the publications present the statistics clearly, and charts and tables are disseminated with the data to facilitate analysis. The national accounts are released on a preannounced schedule and are made available to the public simultaneously. However, the schedule refers to the release of publications rather than specific data sets. Different levels of metadata detail are disseminated to address user needs, including information on linkages with other relevant statistical programs. The GDDS metadata posted on the IMF DSBB website are disseminated through the NSC website, in English and Russian. Assistance to users is facilitated by the clear identification of the contact point for each statistical program, such as the national accounts, in all publications and on the website. Prompt and knowledgeable statistical support service is also available through the dissemination division.

37. Regarding data accessibility, the consumer price index and the producer price index are released on a preannounced schedule although it does not specify the datasets. Release mechanisms support simultaneous release to the public. CPI and PPI data are presented clearly in tables and charts, at different levels of aggregation and including analysis of current period changes. Metadata on the CPI and the PPI, disseminated in summary form through the IMF DSBB and the NSC websites, are published in detail in the NSC thematic publications. Assistance to users is provided through contact points for the CPI and the PPI, or the dissemination division, all of which are clearly identified in the NSC’s statistical publications.

38. The accessibility of government finance statistics was improved substantially with the introduction of the MOF quarterly bulletins starting in 2002. The content and layout of these bulletins are still evolving, and there is ample room for improving the presentation of the disseminated statistics to facilitate proper interpretation and analysis of fiscal developments. Although statistics are not released on a preannounced schedule, monthly data are generally made available to the public within a predictable time frame. With regard to the metadata accessibility, the annual NSC publication and the GDDS metadata provide summary metadata. More detailed information on compilation procedures can be found only in the Treasury Law and Budget Law, both publicly available. A dedicated publication showing detailed metadata on the government finance statistics would facilitate the interpretation of the statistics disseminated. Assistance to users is provided through a contact point for government finance statistics clearly identified in the quarterly bulletin, the NSC’s statistical publications, and the DSBB.

39. Monetary statistics are easily accessible through the NBKR’s periodic publications and website. These publications contain tables and charts presented clearly, including annual time series for the monetary aggregates. However, a greater level of disaggregation of some aggregates would enhance the analytical usefulness of the disseminated statistics. Although there is no preannounced schedule for the dissemination of the monetary statistics, internal production schedules provide reasonably predictable release dates both via the NBKR’s website and the monthly bulletin. In addition to the metadata disseminated on the IMF’s GDDS website, including, inter alia, key deviations from international standards, the NBKR bulletins contain only brief methodological notes. Assistance to users is facilitated by the identification of a contact person for monetary statistics on the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF website. A contact point is also listed in the NBKR’s bulletins.

40. As to data accessibility, balance of payments statistics are disseminated in a timely and clear manner, both in the NBKR periodic publications and on the website. Data are released in accordance with a preannounced release schedule, presented in the NBKR’s publications. Concerning metadata accessibility, in addition to the metadata disseminated on the IMF’s GDDS website, the NBKR’s publications contain summary information on methodology and source data. More comprehensive metadata including information about response rates, main linkages with other statistics datasets, and deviations from the internationally accepted standards are yet to be developed. Assistance to users is facilitated by the identification of a contact person for balance of payments in the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF website and in the NBKR’s publications.

V. Staff’s Recommendations

42. Based on the results of the data quality assessment, discussions with the Kyrgyz Republic authorities, and responses from data users, the following measures are proposed to further the Kyrgyz Republic’s adherence to international statistical standards. In light of the authorities’ interest in subscribing to the SDDS, the high-priority recommendations include those designed to assist the Kyrgyz Republic in meeting all the SDDS requirements.

General Recommendations

High priority

  • Enhance transparency of statistical practices by publicizing government access to data prior to release and providing advance notice of major changes in surveys, source data, and compilation methods.

  • Expedite work to investigate the discrepancies between major datasets of macroeconomic statistics.

  • Develop, implement, and disseminate advance release calendars for all remaining SDDS data categories.7

  • Allocate increased resources, particularly computer resources, to support statistical activity.

Other

  • Review statistical legislation and regulations with a view to strengthening data collection and coordination of statistical activities and data sharing between data-producing agencies.

  • Promote training in statistical methodologies.

  • Carry out studies and analysis of revisions routinely to shed light on how statistical processes can be improved. Publish revision studies and analysis to inform data users about accuracy and reliability.

  • Institutionalize formal mechanisms for obtaining feedback from data users.

National Accounts

High priority

  • Complete the conversion to the NACE-based classification (KCEA).

  • Ensure the timely completion of the work to compile discrete quarterly estimates.

  • Strengthen survey design and methodology, including questionnaire design, where applicable.

  • Strengthen the quality of source data for quarterly estimates.

  • Introduce time series analysis and seasonal adjustment techniques.

  • Disseminate quarterly GDP by expenditure within 90 days after the reference quarter.

  • Improve the method used to estimate taxes and subsidies at constant prices by using the relevant average rates of the base year at the product level.

Other

  • Develop a new survey on quarterly inventory changes for small business to improve the estimation of GDP by expenditure on a quarterly basis.

  • Improve data collection for the quarterly capital formation survey.

Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index

High priority

  • Improve the techniques used for applying quality adjustments to product prices to enhance the effectiveness of price measurement for the CPI and the PPI.

  • Expand the industrial PPI collection coverage.

  • Evaluate the adequacy of using a national weighting pattern to compile regional CPIs. Introduce regional-based weights if necessary.

  • Investigate how well the nonobserved economy is represented in the current CPI and PPI weights and price indicators.

Other

  • Broaden the scope of the main producer price index by including also the agriculture, construction, transport, and communications indices already compiled.

  • Extend the coverage of the main producer price index to include exports.

  • Explore the feasibility of expanding the geographic coverage of the CPI beyond urban households.

Government Finance Statistics

High priority

  • Collect and compile quarterly data on financing (transactions and debt) directly from government records, and reconcile them with data from banks.

  • Expedite work to remedy the discrepancy between deficit and financing data.

  • Compile and disseminate consolidated government statistics from 2003, classified on the basis of the GFSM 2001 methodology, covering budgetary, the Social Fund and the Public Investment Program transactions, including (noncumulative) quarterly figures.

  • Disseminate data on outstanding debt classified according to GFSM 2001 methodology (by debt holder and instrument).

  • Establish and document a timetable for migration over time to GFSM 2001 methodology.

Other

  • Continue to enhance the usefulness of the Quarterly Bulletin (e.g., by publishing statistics more in accordance with the GFSM 2001 framework).

  • Disseminate detailed metadata (e.g., main concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, and data sources) in a single publication to provide a convenient point of reference for the user.

Monetary Statistics

High priority

  • Fully implement the MFSM methodology concerning (1) the sectorization of the economy, (2) the valuation of financial instruments, and (3) accrual accounting for the compilation of monetary statistics.

  • Uniformly apply the residency criterion for classifying the transactions with foreign and domestic units.

  • Bring the timeliness of the analytical accounts of the NBKR (including a breakdown of claims on public and private sectors) into line with the SDDS requirements.

  • Strengthen the measures to retain experienced monetary statistics compilers.

Other

  • Disseminate longer data series on broad money and its components, credit aggregates and their components, and depository corporations’ foreign assets and liabilities, with a more detailed sectoral breakdown, and provide information on breaks in data series to the public.

Balance of Payments Statistics

High priority

  • Improve coverage of the private external debt, including by establishing legal provisions to ensure effective data collection.

  • Disseminate international reserves data following the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity in line with SDDS requirements.

  • Strive to obtain consistency with other statistical datasets in the sectorization and classification of transactions for the financial account.

  • Revise definition, classification, and valuation principles used in the current and financial accounts to ensure full adherence to the BPM5.

  • Introduce a more efficient data processing system for the State Customs Inspectorate and ensure that banks provide information on payment orders for high value transactions.

Other

  • Improve the survey form on interenterprise arrears to include information on financial instruments and write-offs of bad debts. Review survey instructions to increase the accuracy of the reported data.

1

The mission team was headed by Candida Andrade and included Nataliya Ivanyk and Florina Tanase (all STA), David Collins, Anna Ansmits, Edward Doggett (experts), and Stella Allotey Addo (STA—Administrative Assistant).

2

Sociodemographic statistics were not covered in the assessment.

4

A detailed description of the SDDS can be found on the Internet at http://dsbb.imf.org

5

The Generic Framework is set out in Appendix I of the accompanying Detailed Assessments volume to this report.

6

Information on data quality can be found at the IMF website on the “Data Quality Reference Site” (http://dsbb.imf.org/dqrsindex.htm).

7

An advance release calendar for the balance of payments data category has been disseminated.