Abstract
The data dissemination module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an in-depth review of Ukraine’s statistical system. The report provides an assessment of Ukraine’s data dissemination practices in relation to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), and the quality of the data disseminated using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) developed by the IMF’s Statistics Department. It also assesses data quality for the national accounts, consumer and producer prices, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics.
I. Overview
The government of Ukraine expresses its sincere gratitude to the Statistics Department of the IMF for having prepared the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) along with the Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), highlighting the situation in the statistics domain as it existed during the IMF ROSC mission to Ukraine (3–17 April, 2002). The Ukrainian side completely agrees with the conclusions that have been made in regards of the capability of the main compilers of statistics - the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (SSCU), the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (MoF) and the National bank of Ukraine (NBU) - to produce and disseminate statistical information in line with international standards and, in particular, the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The analysis undertaken by the IMF’s experts is very beneficial to Ukraine and helps both to assess how the selected elements of the statistical system are developed and to identify ways for the further development of statistics, improvements to the quality of data, as well as promoting their comparability at international level.
We recognize the importance of reliable, timely, quality and accessible statistics to ensure efficient management and sound decision-making. Ukraine’s strategy on its integration into the economic and financial systems of the world poses the task of improving the statistical system through the introduction of commonly recognized statistical methodology and practice. Ukraine subscribed to SDDS in January 2003, which definitely endorsed some advancing of our statistics and approaching to the international requirements and standards. While, at the same time, a lot of work still has to be done in the area of compilation and dissemination of statistics in order to bring it in line with the best international practice.
The government of Ukraine considers the documents prepared by the IMF’s experts as a basis for the further work aimed at strengthening macroeconomic statistics, as well as the Ukrainian statistics as a whole. These documents provide guidelines for the SSCU, MoF and NBU on how to improve selected SDDS categories, increase their transparency by disseminating statistics and metadata for interested users through official publications, press releases and Internet. The recommendations also outlined Ukraine’s tasks to build an efficiently functioning statistical system, to strengthen co-ordination among producers of statistics, to enhance provision of statistical data and metadata to the public using new information technologies.
Since the IMF ROSC mission, Ukrainian producers of economic and financial statistics have undertaken a number of steps to address weaknesses in data production and dissemination practices pointed out in the Report on the Observance on Standards and Codes—Data Module. Several enhancements to the Ukraine’s SDDS data has already been done, as well as plans for the coming years were developed. The actions accomplished and forthcoming plans are presented below under “General and Specific Recommendations”.
II. Response to Staff’s Recommendations
A. General Recommendations
Take remaining measures to be able to subscribe to the SDDS, including regularly updating the information contained in the NSDP and ARCs posted on the SSCU’s website.
The SSCU, MoF and NBU have fulfilled the recommendations of the IMF’s last mission on SDDS subscription (June 2002). The NSDP has been posted and is regularly updated on the SSCU web-site. Information contained in the ARC is updated regularly.
Disseminating the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity and the IIP.
The Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity is compiled in line with SDDS requirements and disseminated on the NBU web-site.
Establishing an interagency committee to determine the assignment of roles and responsibilities for the compilation and dissemination of quarterly external debt data.
The NBU and MoF responsibility for External Debt Data compilation and dissemination will be fixed after the government of Ukraine approves the relevant legislation acts.
Disseminating volume measures and index series in relation to a fixed reference period.
The National Accounts volume measures, Industrial Production Index, CPI and PPI Index series are recalculated to a fixed reference period (2001 =100).
Conduct users’ surveys on a regular basis to review the relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs.
The users’ surveys plan will constitute a part of the project “Ukraine Statistics. Strategy and Implementation Plan. 2004–2008”, which is being developed by the SSCU.
Provide advance notice of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques.
Information on changes in methodology and methods will be presented in statistical publications and posted on the SSCU web-site, as well as regularly provided to the IMF for including relevant changes into metadata and summary methodology.
B. National Accounts
High priority
Further revamp the data collection and production environment, in particular, in terms of greater use of sample surveys and improving data flow management and processing.
In order to reduce the number of indicators and to eliminate overlapping by using administrative data, the SSCU annually examines collected social and economic indicators. A work on setting the statistical indicators’ database has been started to determine and analyse the quantity of indicators.
For moving to sample surveys, facilitating their unification and standardisation, ensuring sufficient coverage of population, the first stage of the statistical register has been introduced, which is used as a basis for the annual structural survey.
Revive the high powered Statistical Council to provide guidance on the quality of the statistical series and on strategies for improving data production.
Reviving of Statistical Council is one of the actions included in the project “Ukraine Statistics. Strategy and Implementation Plan. 2004–2008”, that is developed by the SSCU.
Strengthen the independence of the SSCU to prevent official users from unduly influencing decisions on methodological issues such as dissemination practices and revision policies.
The Statistical Council, which should be created according to the project “Ukraine Statistics. Strategy and Implementation Plan. 2004–2008” must become the main advisory body in the country. The created body is to be able to consider the directions of statistical development, in particularly methodological approaches, to ensure that scientific principles and methods commonly recognised in the world statistics are implemented in Ukraine.
Compile seasonally adjusted measures of GDP.
The introduction into statistical practice of quarterly indicators calculated at the prices of a base period, as well as accumulating a sufficient quantity of index numbers in historical series (due to the introduction of the National Classifications of Types of Economic Activities) would allow the SSCU to compile seasonally adjusted indicators.
Other key recommendations
Compile the fourth quarter national accounts from source data that are consistent with the source data of the first three quarters.
According to the State Plan of Statistical Works for 2003, the national accounts for the fourth quarter of 2002 were compiled on the basis of source data consistent with the source data of the three previous quarters.
Improve the timeliness of national accounts for the fourth quarter to meet SDDS requirements.
The fourth quarter national accounts data will be compiled on the 90th day after the reference quarter.
C. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index
High priority
For the CPI, implement procedures in regional offices to impute prices of each missing variety of good or service from month to month until it is decided that the variety is permanently missing; this is particularly relevant for seasonally available items, such as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Experimental calculations of imputed prices for missing seasonal items are being made at the regional level. Based on the obtained results, a decision on the imputation procedure implementation will be made.
Other key recommendations
For the PPI, incorporate more market service-producing activities over time.
The issue of extending the number of service-producing activities used for PPI calculation is under consideration.
D. Government Finance Statistics
High priority
Re-disseminate annual data for general government for 1999–2001 based on the format for submission to the IMF GFS Yearbook; these data include nonbudget pension and social security funds.
The MoF sent the letter №025-06/52 dated September 17, 2002 to the IMF Statistics Department, containing tabular and text material on government finance statistics to be published in the next issue of IMF Yearbook. Comments of IMF Statistics Department’s experts concerning the previous year publication were taken into account in the data for 2001 and the data of previous years were provided.
Also, publish more extensive documentation of definitions, sources, and methods to enhance accessibility of the data for users.
Data on the basic definitions, used in tables, as well as specified information sources, used for drawing up the mentioned review, are placed in the Budget of Ukraine - 2001 national statistics yearbook, which is distributed both in paper and electronic form. The list of definitions is posted on the web-site of the MoF.
Incorporate nonbudget social security funds in the disseminated data on central government operations and work towards improving the timeliness of these data.
The MoF introduces the revision of accounting forms of the funds of social insurance and the Pension Fund of Ukraine in order to ensure further consolidation of indexes of the State budget and funds of social insurance only for the statistical purposes. The mentioned activities are to be carried out during 2003.
Other key recommendations
Set target dates for the separate stages of the development plan for migration to the 2001 GFS Manual and give priority to their implementation, including the allocation of the required resources.
The MoF worked out a strategy of reforming government finance statistics for 2003-2006. The MoF passed to the SSCU the list of actions, which are an integral part of the World Bank Project on Reform the State Statistics System.
Review possibility for redeploying resources for implementing the development plan and coping with the increased workload arising from bringing local government into the TSA.
Treasury local budgets servicing started on January 1, 2002. At the first stage incomes of local budgets are served. For a full-scale pass towards the Treasury servicing of budgetary funds by Treasury institutions, it is necessary to open more than 250 accounts for the managers of budgetary funds. Taking into accounts present State financial resources, a strategy was worked out. It provides for a stage-by-stage introduction of Treasury servicing of the local budgets’ disbursement up to 2005 in the way of enlarging the list of regions where Treasury local budgets servicing to be introduced.
E. Monetary Statistics
High priority
Improve the timeliness of the analytical accounts of the central bank to meet SDDS requirements using the daily accounting records excluding internal organizations.
In accordance with recommendations of the IMF mission in June 2002, the analytical accounts of the National bank of Ukraine shall be reported using a flexibility option, in particular, no later than 30th day after the end of the reference month within the months of January – November and within 6 weeks after the end of the reference year because of end-of-year delays in finalizing the accounting records.
Disseminate information on the compilation of monetary data, including on major aggregates and differences from internationally accepted standards.
Monetary data are compiled in accordance with the IMF SDDS requirements. They are posted on the web-site of the National Bank of Ukraine (http://www.bank.gov.ua/) and are published in the monthly “Bulletin” of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The data are provided to the State Statistics Committee for posting on its web-site and for further provision to the IMF.
Data are updated on the web-site of the National Bank of Ukraine according to an advance of release calendar.
Establish a migration plan to adopt the recommendations included in the MFSM 2000.
Preparation work is continued on establishing a migration plan to adopt the recommendations included in the MFSM 2000 relating to issues of collection, compilation and dissemination of monetary and government finance statistics. It is intended to expand the statistics coverage, including accounts of non-bank financial institutions and providing data on derivative financial instruments.
Other key recommendations
Expand the coverage of the monetary data to include nonbank financial institutions issuing deposit substitutes and compile and disseminate flow data. Increase human and budgetary resources for these purposes.
Expansion of the coverage of the monetary data can be practicable after establishing a supervising body on non-bank financial institutions and compiling monetary statistics on these economic entities.
Some changes are made to the subdivision structure and a new subdivision on methodology of compilation of monetary and banking statistics is organized.
To enhance the consistency of monetary data, limit changes in the charts of accounts of the NBU and commercial banks to twice a year, and prepare backward revisions.
In accordance with the Resolution of the National bank of Ukraine №124 of 19.03.2003 on approval of new Rules on statistical reporting provided to the National Bank of Ukraine, it is determined that changes in the charts of accounts shall be made once a quarter.
Separately identify information on financial derivatives.
Full information on financial derivatives is provided in accordance with their usage.
Verify consistency of monetary statistics and government finance statistics on a regular basis.
Consistency of monetary statistics and government finance statistics is verified on a regular basis.
F. Balance of Payments
High priority
Implement a lower reporting threshold for banks to provide information on payment orders for high-value transactions.
To improve statistics data quality and accuracy, the NBU intends in 2003 to implement a lower reporting threshold for banks to provide additional information on transactions with non-residents. It is reducing the reporting threshold for declaration of transactions from 250 to 50 thousands U.S. dollars in the ITRS system. Relevant changes to normative documents are approved by the Resolution of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine № 124 of 19.03.2003.
Implement a travelers’ survey to improve the quality of shuttle trade, compensation of employees, and travel estimates.
The Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine “On Balance of Payments Compilation” makes provision to use data on joint travellers’ survey conducted by the State Customs Service of Ukraine and the SSCU with participation of the NBU when compiling the Balance of Payments. However, as of today, the issue on extra financing to conduct a survey is not solved.
Expand the survey form on inter-enterprise arrears to include information on financial instruments, currency composition, debt maturity, and write-offs of bad debts. Reduce response burden by conducting the survey on a quarterly basis and adopting sampling techniques.
The NBU makes aware of the necessity to modify the survey of enterprises of Ukraine to get information on financial instruments, currency composition, debt maturity, and write-offs of bad debts.
Other key recommendations
Increase the component details of current transfers.
The ITRS improvement being a basis for “Current transfers” article in the part of provision of more detailed comments when reflecting transactions, is allowed to strengthen control on quality of information supplied by respondents.
When lowering a threshold of providing additional information, the quality of statistics information can be improved in general and on current transfers in particular.
Review the FDI survey with a view to recording inter-enterprises’ direct investment loans under FDI instead of under other investment.
In 2002, the SSCU together with the NBU have developed the new version of a form for state statistical survey of enterprises on direct investment (Form 10 “Report on Foreign Investments in Ukraine”). Implementation in 2003 of the above-mentioned form shall allow to identify credits of direct foreign investors and record them under “Direct investment”.
Prepare and regularly publish revision studies to provide additional information on the sources and magnitude of revisions and explain the impact of new data sources.
The information on the sources and magnitude of revisions of data on previous periods shall be published in the official publication of the NBU Balance of Payments together with data on balance of payments for 2002.