Abstract
This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides a review of Morocco’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), complemented by an in-depth assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics. The assessment reveals that Morocco generally exceeds the GDDS recommendations on periodicity and timeliness for its macroeconomic statistics. For most data categories currently disseminated, Morocco meets the periodicity prescriptions of the Special Data Dissemination Standards.
I. Response of the Authorities
The IMF technical assistance mission that visited our country from January 16-31, 2002 provided us with its report on the observation of standards and codes concerning the data module. The authorities have taken note of the recommendations made by the IMF and wish, in this regard, to explain the progress that has been made since the mission, the measures taken or planned, and the projects underway to remedy the weaknesses in the national statistics system.
A. National Accounts and Price indices
(Response from the Statistics Directorate)
A.1. The reform of the national accounts and production of statistical indices
The Statistics Directorate, part of the Department of Economic Forecasting and Planning, has adopted a long-term strategy for upgrading the national statistics system. As part of this effort, it has undertaken to reform national income accounting and certain statistical indices
A.1.1. National accounts
A reform of national accounts was undertaken in light of the time that has elapsed since the base year currently in use, and in recognition of the United Nations’ recommendation to begin using the new world national accounts standards (1993 SNA).
To this end, the Statistics Directorate has been engaged since 1998 in a wide-ranging statistics program involving, in particular, statistical surveys of a structural nature, including:
Structural surveys of enterprises with accounting data.
Survey of the informal sector.
Expansion of the scope of the rural employment survey.
Household living standards survey.
Survey of general government investments.
Household expenditure survey.
Economic census designed to establish a directory (répertoire) of enterprises and establishments.
The Directorate has also taken steps with businesses and the ministerial departments to develop cooperation in the production of statistics, to meet the needs of national accounts.
To date, the following tasks have been accomplished as part of this reform:
Training of Statistics Directorate personnel in the use of 1993 SNA (training in Morocco and abroad).
Definition of information needs.
Technical development and field application of statistical surveys.
Establishment of classifications consistent with those in use at the national and international levels, to meet the national income accounting needs.
Study of the institutional and regulatory situation to determine the components of the national economy.
Establishment of relations with other accounting systems (enterprises, government, balance of payments, etc.).
Establishment of methodological and organizational procedures appropriate to the computer tools in use, and in particular the ERETES software, for preparing the new national accounts.
Preparation of the national accounts data for 1998, which has been selected as the new base year.
The first stage of this work has produced provisional results for the new base year 1998. These results are presented in the form of accounts and summary tables on:
Goods and services accounts (100 products).
Output and operating accounts by branch of activity (36 branches).
Source and use tables (36 branches).
Complete sequence of operating accounts for institutional sectors.
Table of integrated economic accounts.
Table of financial operations (TOF).
The results shown in these accounts and tables will be finalized after the new series of national accounts (1998–2002) is completed toward the end of 2003.
These results have been made available to users to enable them to undertake urgent analytical tasks such as simulation and impact studies as well studies of the structure of output and the behavior of economic agents.
The old series of national accounts (base year 1980) will remain in effect until the new series is published, so that trends can continue to be analyzed.
The summary tables will be supplemented by other tables, including the social accounting matrix.
The goods and services accounts will be extended to cover nearly 300 products, and the industry accounts will be extended to about 100 branches.
These accounts and tables will be prepared annually, except for the social accounts matrix, which will be produced periodically in light of analytical needs.
The following results will be published:
Provisional results for the preceding year (t-1).
Semi-definitive results for the year (t-2).
Definitive results for the year (t-3).
The following is the schedule for upgrading the national accounting system:
a. Base year 1998:
The remaining work on 1998 will be completed before end-January 2003.
b. Current years:
1999 accounts (definitive): fourth-quarter 2002 and first-quarter 2003.
2000 accounts (semi-definitive): second-quarter 2003.
2001 accounts (provisional): third-quarter 2003.
2002 accounts (provisional): fourth-quarter 2003.
Establishment and publication of methodological reports and the national accounts series for 1998-2002, beginning in early 2004.
A.1.2. Statistical indices
Statistics Directorate has adopted a medium and long-term plan of action involving a series of reforms to existing indices and the design of new indices.
During 2003 and 2004, the consumer price index (CPI) will be completely overhauled. Preliminary data from the household consumption and expenditure survey conducted in 2000–2001, which will be available in the next few months, will be used. Meanwhile, the weighting structures for calculating this index have been updated starting from January 2002, using data from the household living standards survey of 1998–1999.
The overhaul of the CPI will involve:
Upgrading the weighting structures.
Expanding the geographic scope of the index.
Revising the basket of goods and services.
Updating the sample of observation points.
With respect to other statistical indices, two reforms are underway, concerning the industrial, energy and mining output index (IPI) and the foreign trade indices.
These reforms, the first results of which are expected in the course of 2003 (for the foreign trade indices) and in 2004 (for the output indices) are designed to meet the needs of different users, and in particular the national accounting system. The year 1998 was selected as the base year for these indices, to make it consistent with that of the national accounts.
The reform of the IPI consists of:
Updating the base year.
Adopting new weighting coefficients.
Updating the samples of products and observation points.
Adopting the new economic activities classification.
The foreign trade indices have been undergoing a significant revision for more than a year. They will be prepared quarterly by branch of activity, in accordance with the new classification, and by use group.
The Statistics Directorate’s action plan also calls for periodic revision of other indices. This will involve subsequent reforms to the price indices for industrial, energy and mining production and the wholesale price index for agricultural products, for which the base year is currently 1997.
This action plan also calls for the development of new indices such as those relating to business turnover, prices of capital goods, and wages and salaries, beginning in 2005.
At the same time, research is continuing into other aspects, relating in particular to data quality and the methods for data collection and the construction of indices.
A.1.3. Statistical coordination
Given the importance of ready access to data for all ministries in general, and for the Ministry of Finance and Privatization in particular, all partners are being asked to cooperate with the Statistics Directorate to facilitate the production and publication of complete national accounts results, within fixed deadlines.
In order to overcome obstacles that could impede the flow of this work, as well as other statistical projects, the Department of Economic Forecasting and Planning has prepared a draft law on the National Statistical Information Council (CNIS), and a draft law on the directory and single identifier system for businesses and economic establishments. These two draft laws are currently being studied for application.
Other draft laws are being prepared, including one to create a national accounting commission. These measures will serve to eliminate many obstacles, to control expenditures, to gain time in the data collection process, and to instill new dynamism in the national system of statistical information in general, and in the national accounting system in particular.
A.2. Implementation of IMF recommendations
The Statistics Directorate (DS) of the Department of Economic Forecasting and Planning has already begun work on implementing the recommendations of the IMF mission of January 16–30, 2002, concerning the real sector.
A.2.1. Short-term recommendations
A.2.1.1. Quarterly statistics on wages and salaries
A working group has been set up to study the various statistical sources on wages and salaries, and to contact the departments that hold information of this kind. The objective is to introduce a quarterly data collection and dissemination system on wages and salaries by end-2003. Initial contact was made on December 18, 2002, with the National Social Security Fund (CNSS).
A.2.1.2. Industrial output index
The authorities are currently examining the possibility of calculating this index on a monthly basis. The Statistics Directorate is requesting technical assistance from the IMF to examine the feasibility of this proposal.
A.2.1.3. National accounts
The principle of reducing the time lag for publication of the quarterly national accounts from 10 days to bring it into line with the SDDS will be adopted.
The reform of the national accounts will be pursued: it will be completed toward end-2003, and the results as well as the methodologies adopted will be published at the beginning of 2004.
In terms of developing a directory of firms and establishments, the Statistics Directorate has begun receiving advice and observations from various departments concerning the draft law for creating this directory.
Data from the household expenditure survey are now being refined.
A.2.1.4. Producer price index (PPI)
The PPI has already been posted on the Statistics Directorate’s website.
A.2.2. Medium-term
A.2.2.1. Structural surveys
The DS has adopted a long-term plan of action (2002–2012) to produce a set of structural surveys with a periodicity of five years. The first surveys of this kind will be conducted in 2005 and 2006 (pertaining to the business year 2005).
A.2.2.2. Consumer price index (CPI)
Over the medium term, a continuous system for updating products and weightings will be implemented in light of data from the national accounting system and from the household living standards and consumption surveys planned as part of the Statistics Directorate’s long-term action program.
B. Government Finance Statistics
(Response from the Ministry of Finance and Privatization)
Regarding conformity with the GDDS, and with the prospect of conforming to the SDDS, the ministry is planning to expand the field of coverage of government finance statistics to include local governments, public administrative establishments, and pension and social security agencies. In this context, meetings are scheduled with the General Treasury of the Kingdom, the Directorate of Public Establishments and Participations, and the Directorate of Budget, in order to define information circuits and procedures for consolidating government finance statistics.
0. Prerequisites of quality
The Financial Situation Committee (Comité de Conjoncture Financière) holds regular meetings at the Directorate of the Treasury and External Finance, with representatives of the major directorates concerned with the government finance statistics. These meetings provide an opportunity for reconciliation, cross-referencing and coordination of statistical information.
However, in order to make the staff familiar with the new rules and standards for compiling government finance statistics, our department is hoping to take advantage of training sessions on this subject that the IMF might provide.
1. Integrity
A methodological note on the preparation of government finance statistics will be produced by the Directorate of the Treasury and External Finance during the first half of 2003.
2. Methodological soundness
For operations of the Hassan II Fund for Economic and Social Development, Morocco wishes to continue the current statistical treatment whereby operations of this fund are considered like those of other public establishments, while awaiting completion of the project now underway for consolidating the operations of public establishments with those of the central government (Etat).
With respect to statistics on the domestic debt, the possibility of expanding their scope of coverage is under consideration.
3. Serviceability
The new configuration of the Economic Situation Report (Note de Conjoncture) published by the Directorate of the Treasury and External Finance, which dates from the beginning of 2002, provides both cumulative and monthly data on government finances. It also includes details on financing.
4. Accessibility
In terms of the variety of presentations and the difficulties that this creates for users, meetings are scheduled with the various departments that publish statistics on government finance in order to harmonize the presentations and make them easier for users to deal with.
Contact information (name, address, telephone, fax and e-mail) for the person in charge of the Economic Situation Report will be published shortly.
C. Balance of Payments
(Response from the Foreign Exchange Office)
0. Prerequisites of quality
Lack of a legislative basis for compiling and disseminating the balance of payments
The Foreign Exchange Office has submitted draft legislation that would give it the legal basis needed for preparing and publishing statistics on foreign trade and the balance of payments.
Despite the lack of such a basis, the Foreign Exchange Office is taking the necessary steps to implement mechanisms for collecting information directly from economic operators. For example, the Office does not limit itself to Customs data and information from the exchange control regime. The information diversification effort that was initiated some years ago is intended to prevent the loss of information due to liberalization of the exchange system.
1. Integrity
Too little information published about policies and practices used in the Office’s statistical work.
The major statistical publications of the Foreign Exchange Office contain methodological notes on the way foreign trade and balance of payments statistics are compiled. The new version of the Office’s website, designed to meet the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard, will carry more detailed notes on the agency’s statistical mission.
2. Methodological soundness
Further steps in implementing the recommendations on scope, classification, and basis of recording.
These recommendations relate to three aspects:
-Determining changes in reserve assets by excluding the effects of exchange rate fluctuations
This recommendation was implemented during the course of 2002.
-Variations in assets and liabilities of deposit banks
This variation will in future be excluded from reserve assets, and included under the heading “other investments.”
-Integration of free zones and offshore banks
The Foreign Exchange Office has begun work to integrate commercial transactions by operators installed in the industrial free zones into the foreign trade statistics as of the year 2002. This integration will be extended to other transactions as of 2003. As concerns offshore banks, they are considered as resident entities in the draft legislation on statistical reporting.
3. Accuracy and reliability
Conduct regular review studies to reinforce the methods for preparing provisional estimates.
The Foreign Exchange Office will implement a new policy for reviewing data, as of 2003. This will involve publishing three types of data only: provisional, updated and definitive data.
An explanatory note on the new policy will be available to users over the website. As well, the new version of the site will carry a publications calendar that will specify the dates for publication and updating of data.
4. Serviceability
Lack of consultation with users of balance of payments statistics and no policy for reviewing data
The Foreign Exchange Office has adopted a new communications strategy for better identifying the needs of balance of payments statistics users. A user survey is now underway, and questionnaires have been sent to different categories of users in order to have better knowledge of their expectations.
The new data review policy will take full account of the observations on this point.
5. Accessibility
-Publications provide only cumulative quarterly data.
-The methodological indications published are not sufficiently detailed.
-No advance release calendar.
The balance of payments publications for the year 2002 provide both quarterly data (January to March, April to June, etc.) and cumulative data. The new version of the website will carry detailed methodological notes and a data release calendar.
II. Recommendations
Short-term
- Establish the overall external position
The Foreign Exchange Office has included this project in its strategic action program for 2003.
- Reduce the time lag in publication of the balance of payments to three months
This recommendation is being implemented.
- Data on external assets should be classified and allocated in accordance with the BPM5
The change in banks’external assets and liabilities will now be recorded under the heading “other investments.” The effect of exchange rate variations will continue to be deducted for calculating the change in reserve assets.
Medium-term
- Secondary data sources should be used to validate the balance of payments results
This recommendation has been well taken for implementation over the medium term.
- Improve the scope, classification and evaluation of balance of payments transactions
The IMF mission’s recommendations on this point are consistent with the concerns of the Foreign Exchange Office, which has made them part of its strategic action program. Objectives in this area will be met through cooperation with the European Union statistical authorities (Medcomext program and trade in services), and with the Bank of France (preparation of the balance of payments and the external position).
- Participation of agents of the Research and Balance of Payments Division in IMF methodological seminars on the balance of payments.
The Foreign Exchange Office is requesting support from the Statistics Department for applications that it plans to submit to the IMF Institute so that its staff can participate in balance of payments seminars.