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© 2003 International Monetary Fund

April 2003

IMF Country Report No. 03/92

Morocco: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module; Response by the Authorities; and Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Data Module for Morocco was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on March 26, 2003. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Morocco or the Executive Board of the IMF.

The Response by the Authorities on this report, and the Detailed Assessment Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) are also included.

The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

MOROCCO

Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module

Prepared by the Statistics Department

Approved by Carol S. Carson and George T. Abed

March 26, 2003

Contents

• Acronyms

• Executive Summary

• I. Introduction

• II. Data Dissemination Practices and General Data Dissemination System

• III. Summary Assessment of Data Quality

  • Prerequisites of quality

  • Integrity

  • Methodological soundness

  • Accuracy and reliability

  • Serviceability

  • Accessibility

• IV. Staff’s Recommendations

  • General Recommendations

  • National Accounts

  • Consumer Price Index

  • Producer Price Index

  • Government Finance Statistics

  • Monetary and Financial Statistics

  • External Sector

• Text Tables

• 1. Overview of Current Practices Compared to the GDDS

• 2. DQAF—Summary Presentation of Results

Acronyms

Executive Summary

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides a review of Morocco’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), complemented by an in-depth assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics. The agencies that produce the statistics assessed in this report are the Ministry of Forecasting and Planning; the Ministry of Economy, Finance, Privatization, and Tourism (MEFPT); Bank Al-Maghrib; and the Foreign Exchange Office (OC). The assessment was carried out by a mission from the IMF Statistics Department that visited Rabat, Morocco during January 16–30, 2002.

The mission reached the following main conclusions:

• General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) participation and Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) subscription: Morocco generally well exceeds the GDDS recommendations on periodicity and timeliness for its macroeconomic statistics, although the data coverage would need to be extended to include all central government operations, external debt service schedule, and wages to be in line with the GDDS recommendations. For most data categories currently disseminated, Morocco meets the periodicity prescriptions of the SDDS and, with a slight improvement, would also meet those of timeliness; in addition to those noted under GDDS, statistics would need to be disseminated on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity, international investment position, and general government operations. As such, Morocco is well positioned to meet the SDDS, and the process toward fulfilling the requirements of the standard would be facilitated by appointing a national coordinator and developing an action plan.

• Prerequisites of quality: Morocco’s statistical system is highly decentralized. A variety of administrative ministries/agencies play key roles in producing statistics, whence the importance of coordination. However the body set up by legislation to coordinate statistical activities has not been operational for some time. As a result, departments tend to conduct their own statistical activities, and this applies equally within the MEFPT in the case of government finance statistics. Plans are, however, underway to amend the legal basis for the production of statistical information, and this is particularly important for the adoption of a new statistical law, a new coordination body (the National Statistical Information Council (CNIS) and the balance of payments. Further, some recent initiatives, such as the establishment of a common business register among ministries, are promising for strengthening coordination. The authorities recognize the importance of statistics as evidenced by the marked increase of resources devoted to the statistical programs since 1998 and by the qualifications of the staff assigned to statistics. While data quality is viewed as very important, user needs should more systematically be taken into account in the organization of the work.

• Integrity: The four main statistical agencies all demonstrate professionalism in compiling the statistics. They acknowledge the importance of ethical standards in the conduct of statistical operations, and some agencies plan to develop written directives to deal with conflicts that may arise. While the authorities seek to promote transparency, the statistical functions are not always clearly defined (especially for the three agencies with administrative functions), and the public is not informed of the internal government access to data before publication.

• Methodological soundness: The need for the statistics to follow current international guidelines is well recognized by the Moroccan authorities, as evidenced, for example, by the price indices. The same generally applies to balance of payments and government finance statistics, although the implementation of these guidelines could be improved in terms of scope, classification, and valuation. For monetary statistics, data on the breakdown of bank credit to the public sector and to the private sector are not available. Recent major initiatives, such as the adoption of a new accounting framework in 2000, will greatly ease the transition to more current international guidelines that requires, among other things, a finer breakdown of claims. As for the national accounts, they are based on outdated guidelines and base year.

• Accuracy and reliability: While adequately checked and validated, the national accounts are adversely affected by gaps in the sources data and by the inappropriate technique to estimate GDP at constant prices which makes use of the single deflation method and ignores the equilibrium between resources and uses at constant prices. Revision studies are conducted, but their results are not always taken into account to improve estimates of subsequent periods. Both price indices undergo extensive validation processes that are somewhat hampered by outdated weights for the consumer price index and there are delays in obtaining source data for the producer price index. Government fiscal statistics are based on accurate and reliable data, although the coverage is limited to central government budgetary operations. Revision studies are not conducted. Except for out-of-date data on deposits at the Treasury, the source data for monetary statistics are accurate and reliable; revision studies are not conducted. Balance of payments statistics are compiled from detailed customs and exchange control data that are assessed and validated, although revisions are not studied as a means to improve preliminary estimates. In view of further liberalization measures, the authorities are aware of the limitation of administrative data, and are taking legal measures to facilitate access to survey sources data. In the meantime, however, no use is made of foreign data sources.

• Serviceability: While the macroeconomic statistics under review are widely recognized to be relevant, no systematic approach is in place to meet users’ needs. The periodicity and timeliness of the statistics in most cases well exceed GDDS recommendations, and are not far from meeting the SDDS requirements. The statistics are generally reconcilable with each other. Overall, time series are consistent. The sub-annual series for fiscal statistics and balance of payments are disseminated only as cumulative month/quarter-to-date figures. Cycles of revisions are well established, preliminary data are usually identified as such, and revisions due to methodological changes generally explained. However, the revision policy is not published.

• Accessibility: The data are generally disseminated with commentaries, tables and graphs that facilitate the analysis, and can be accessed through various dissemination modes. Both government and external users have expressed a strong interest for publication of advance release calendars, a practice not currently followed in Morocco. Metadata are published for the national accounts, price indices, and balance of payments statistics, but more comprehensive descriptions are needed on how the monetary and fiscal statistics are being compiled. Most publications provide adequate information on how to obtain user support.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

MOROCCO

Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module

Response by the Authorities

March 26, 2003

Contents

• I. Response of the Authorities

  • A. National Accounts and Price Indices

  • B. Government Finance Statistics

  • C. Balance of Payments

• II. Recommendations

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

MOROCCO

Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

Prepared by the Statistics Department

Approved by Carol S. Carson and George T. Abed

March 26, 2003

Contents

• Acronyms

• I. National Accounts Statistics

• II. Price Statistics (Consumer Price Index)

• III. Price Statistics (Producer Price Index)

• IV. Government Finance Statistics

• V. Monetary Statistics

• VI. Balance of Payments Statistics

• Text Tables

• Table 1.1. Morocco—Data Quality Assessment Framework: Summary of Results for National Accounts Statistics

• Table 1.2. Morocco—Data Quality Assessment Framework: Summary Presentation of Results for Consumer Price Indices

• Table 1.3. Morocco—Data Quality Assessment Framework: Summary Presentation of Results for Producer Price Indices

• Table 1.4. Morocco—Data Quality Assessment Framework: Summary of Results for Government Finance Statistics

• Table 1.5. Morocco—Data Quality Assessment Framework: Summary Presentation of Results for Monetary Statistics

• Table 1.6. Morocco—Data Quality Assessment Framework: Summary Presentation of Results for Balance of Payments

• Appendices

• I. Summary of the Special Data Dissemination Standard

• II. DQAF—Generic Framework

• III. Users’ Survey

Acronyms