Prepared by Robert Price (PDR)
See “Assessing Sustainability,” May 28, 2002, http://www.imf.org. As that paper discusses, assessments of sustainability are inherently probabilistic; the proposed framework does not supply these probabilities explicitly, but traces the implications of alternative scenarios and leaves the user to determine the probabilities that should be attached. In this case, no specific probabilities were assigned to the alternate scenarios for ECCU countries.
10 years was used in the case of St. Lucia. The 5-year time frame is a departure from the proposed framework in “Assessing Sustainability,” which is based on 10-year averages and standard deviations. A shorter time frame was chosen to capture the period of lower inflation and lower average growth and for the more pragmatic reason that reliable data were in some cases not available for some countries for the longer period.
The countries arc Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The staff projection and baseline stress test for Grenada were recently updated, and the no-growth and worst-case scenarios are not comparable (figure 1, Chart 3).
External arrears continue to be high in Antigua and Barbuda.
No projections were made for Antigua and Barbuda.
Sec “Debt- and Reserve-Related Indicators of External Vulnerability” March 23, 2000, http://www.imf.org.
At end December 2000, 81 2 percent of external debt had a remaining maturity of greater than 10 years, and 97.6 percent was beyond 5 years.
The new requirements include (i) semi-annual reporting of (unaudited) financial statements within 30 days, with a two-year grace period for new issuers (previously quarterly, with no grace period); (ii) provision of annual audited financial statements within 120 days (90 days previously); and (iii) disclosure of material changes within 7 days (no change).