Republic of Mozambique: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module

This report on the Observance of Standards and Codes data module provides a review of Mozambique’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) by in-depth assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics. The assessment reveals that with the exception of monetary statistics, there are limitations in the coverage of all core comprehensive frameworks and indicators recommended in the GDDS. With respect to periodicity and timeliness, most GDDS recommendations have been met.

Abstract

This report on the Observance of Standards and Codes data module provides a review of Mozambique’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) by in-depth assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics. The assessment reveals that with the exception of monetary statistics, there are limitations in the coverage of all core comprehensive frameworks and indicators recommended in the GDDS. With respect to periodicity and timeliness, most GDDS recommendations have been met.

I. Introduction

1. The data dissemination module of this Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an assessment of Mozambique’s practices on the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of the data categories against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). It is complemented by an assessment of the quality of national accounts, consumer price index, and government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) developed by the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA). This report is based on information provided prior to and during a staff mission from June 6–21, 2002,3 as well as on publicly available information.

2. Section II provides an assessment of Mozambique’s data dissemination practices against the System. Section III presents a summary assessment of the quality of the principal macroeconomic datasets, following the dataset-specific assessment frameworks. Finally, Section IV sets out recommendations to achieve further improvements in Mozambique’s statistics. The detailed assessment of each dataset is presented in the accompanying Detailed Assessments document.

II. Data Dissemination Practices and the General Data Dissemination System

3. Against a background of a weak and deteriorating statistical infrastructure in the country, Mozambique has made great efforts to rebuild its statistical system in the recent past. The authorities are strongly committed to adhering to internationally accepted standards and good practices, as demonstrated by their decision to participate in the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).

4. Macroeconomic and socio-demographic statistics in Mozambique are mainly produced by three institutions: (i) the National Institute of Statistics (NIS), responsible for the national accounts, prices, other economic statistics, and socio-demographic indicators; (ii) the Ministry of Planning and Finance (MPF), responsible for government finance and public debt statistics; and (ii) the Bank of Mozambique (BOM), responsible for monetary, balance of payments, and part of debt statistics. Access to macroeconomic data and socio-demographic indicators is provided through several publications and at the following Internet websites:

Data dimension: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness

5. With the exception of monetary statistics, there are limitations in the coverage of all core comprehensive frameworks and indicators recommended in the GDDS.

6. With respect to periodicity and timeliness, most GDDS recommendations are met, except for the periodicity of the data on (i) the manufacturing production index, which is compiled only on a quarterly basis; and (ii) external trade, which are compiled only on a quarterly basis. Regarding timeliness, the exceptions are data on comprehensive central government operations and debt, which are disseminated with a 18-month lag.

7. Concerning extensions encouraged by the GDDS, exceptions to the recommended practices in terms of data coverage are the lack of (i) quarterly GDP data, (ii) a monthly producer price index, and (iii) data on private external debt not publicly guaranteed. Table 1 shows an overview of current practices regarding coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of data in Mozambique compared to the GDDS.4

Table 1.

Mozambique: Overview of Current Practices Regarding Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data Compared to the General Data Dissemination System1

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Key to symbols: A= annual, Q= quarterly, M= monthly, NA= Not Applicable.

Italics indicate encouraged categories.

Coverage not comprehensive.

Selected manufacturing industries.

Fish and agricultural products.

Refers to the CPI for Maputo. NIS also compiles CPIs for Beira and Nampula, as well as an aggregate for the three cities.

Estimates based on household surveys with restricted samples, which do not permit compilation of unemployment data.

From a sample of 698 establishments. Index numbers and average wages for manufacturing, construction, and some services.

Extended Facility Borrowing Rate.

Maputo Interbank Offering Rate (MIBOR).

The BOM disseminates public external debt by creditor but not by maturity. Data on maturity are compiled but not disseminated. The BOM compiles a public debt service schedule but does not disseminate it. There is no publicly guaranteed debt.

Quality dimension

8. The quality dimension of the GDDS is particularly important, given that the primary focus is on improvements in data quality over time. The assessment of quality by users requires the dissemination of (i) documentation on methodology and data sources, and (ii) component detail and reconciliation with related data.

9. Some documentation on the methodology and data sources for most macroeconomic statistics exists in Mozambique, but is not made available to users. Nonpublished (but nonconfidential) data are made available to the public upon request, but differences in data coverage, sectorization, classification, and accounting procedures hamper the reconciliation of data across sectors.

Integrity dimension

10. The GDDS recommends the disclosure of the legal framework for the collection, compilation, and dissemination of data, including the provisions for the confidentiality of respondents’ data.

11. The terms and conditions under which most official statistics are compiled and disseminated in Mozambique provide a legal framework that supports the integrity of the statistical system. This information is in the public domain, albeit in a dispersed and not always easily understandable manner. Internal governmental access to government finance statistics prior to their release to the public is not sufficiently publicized.

Access dimension

12. Dissemination of official data is an essential feature of statistics as a “public good.” Ready and equal access, including by market participants, are fundamental principles for the statistics to be regarded as a public good. The access dimension entails two practices that facilitate ready and equal access to data: (i) simultaneous release to all parties, and (ii) dissemination of advance release calendars.

13. Most statistics are released simultaneously to all parties, with the exception of government finance statistics. Advance release calendars are not disseminated, although the BOM, MPF, and NIS follow internal well-established release schedules that are known to users.

Plans for improvement

14. The authorities’ current plans for improving data quality already encompass all macroeconomic statistics covered by the GDDS and cover important dimensions of the overall quality of these statistics. A fuller integration of these plans in the framework of the GDDS will contribute to substantially improving all dimensions of data quality in an integrated manner and in accordance with internationally accepted standards.

15. For real sector statistics, NIS plans focus on improving the overall quality of the national accounts. The NIS intends to apply a simplified 1993 SNA compilation approach to the quarterly national accounts, and to improve the timeliness of annual GDP beginning with data for 2002. In the longer term, the NIS envisages changing the base year from 1996 to 2003, after the results of the ongoing 2002–03 Household Budget Survey (HBS) become available. Regarding the CPI, plans are to reweigh the index, update the basket, and extend the geographical coverage. The base year will also be updated when the results of the 2002–03 HBS become available.

16. The MPF aims to start disseminating quarterly budget execution data, following the government finance statistics methodology, on the MPF website, in the short term. The MPF is also planning to implement an integrated management and financial information system (SISTAFE) that will generate fiscal statistics consistent with the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). With the assistance of Debt Relief International (DRI) and the Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI), the MPF and the BOM plan to strengthen debt management and improve the timeliness and comprehensiveness of public debt statistics within one–two years.

17. The SISTAFE under preparation is an integrated management and financial information system encompassing all subsystems or processes (budget preparation, financial management, asset management, public accounting, and internal control). It aims at fostering efficient budget execution management and the production, in real time, of accurate and comprehensive data to support effective decision-making and promote the transparency of government activities. The “migration path” to the standards defined in GFSM 2001 is a by product of the implementation of the SISTAFE. In March 2001, a technical coordination unit (UTRAFE) was set up in the MPF to coordinate all ongoing reforms related to the implementation of the SISTAFE. The action plan to prepare and implement this system covers the period 2002–05, and implementation of the pilot project (covering the MPF and one other ministry) is expected to start in mid–2004.

18. In the area of monetary and financial statistics, the BOM plans to strengthen ongoing efforts to fully adopt the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM), including improvements in the sectorization and classification of the accounts of the BOM and other depository corporations. In addition, the adoption of electronic data reporting within the BOM will improve the accuracy and timeliness of central bank aggregates.

19. The BOM plans to continue efforts to improve the balance of payments statistics by strictly adhering to the residency criterion and increasing the scope and classification of transactions. To this end, the BOM intends to launch a quarterly survey for direct investment enterprises and to adopt an improved monthly survey of foreign exchange transactions. With technical assistance from the IMF, the BOM envisages, in the longer term, compiling and disseminating the international investment position (IIP) and the data template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity.

III. Summary Assessment of Data Quality

20. Interest in assessing data quality derives from the need to complement the GDDS with an in-depth assessment of the accuracy and reliability of the data used to support the surveillance of countries’ economic and financial policies. Against this background, STA developed a tool to provide a structure and a common language to assess data quality. The DQAF comprises a generic framework,5 and a set of dataset-specific frameworks. The frameworks cover five dimensions of data quality—integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility—and a set of prerequisites.6

21. An assessment of five macroeconomic datasets (national accounts, consumer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics) was conducted using the frame of reference provided by the dataset-specific DQAF. The information resulting from the application of this framework to Mozambique’s statistical system is presented below, following the structure of the DQAF. Conclusions are also presented in the form of standardized summary tables in which the assessment of data practices is made on a qualitative basis, using a four-part scale (Table 2 and Tables 1–6 of the Detailed Assessments document).

Table 2.

Data Quality Assessment Framework: Summary Presentation of Results

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Paragraph numbers refer to Section III, Summary Assessment of Data Quality, in the present document.

Authorities plans as of June 2002.

Key to symbols: NA = Not Applicable; O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not O

22. Mozambique’s macroeconomic statistics and statistical base are considered to be broadly adequate by the IMF’s African Department (AFR) for effective surveillance. Nevertheless, the mission identified shortcomings in some statistical practices and datasets that may detract from the accurate and timely analysis of economic and financial policies.

Prerequisites of quality

This category in the DQAF identifies conditions within the agency in charge of producing statistics that have an impact on data quality. The elements within the category refer to the legal and institutional environment, resources, and quality awareness.

23. The National Institute of Statistics (NIS), the executive body of the National Statistical System (NSS), has the mandate to compile and disseminate national accounts and prices (Law 7/96 of the National Statistical System). Coordination among statistical agencies is the responsibility of the NIS, with well-established coordination and data sharing mechanisms between the NIS and other institutions. The Law protects the confidentiality of individual respondents’ data and provides a legal mandate for reporting. Staff and financial resources are largely adequate for the compilation of the consumer price index, but there is a shortage of resources for the compilation of national accounts. Even though the NIS has an administrative unit responsible for the allocation of financial resources to the different projects, measures to foster efficient use of resources need to be strengthened, including the provision of professional training in prices and national accounts methodology. The NIS is aware that quality is the cornerstone of the statistical process, as evidence by the strong emphasis on quality issues on all aspects of the statistical process encompassed in the Strategic Plan for the National Statistical System. The National Council of Statistics (comprised of representatives of BOM, NIS, ministries, universities, and private associations) provides guidance to official agencies on statistical policies and development plans. However, regular procedures to obtain feedback from users need to be strengthened. The NIS management is aware of trade-offs among the dimensions of quality.

24. The MPF is responsible for collecting, compiling, and providing data on budget execution to the National Assembly and the public under the Budget Framework Law and the Law on the Integrated Management and Financial Information System (SISTAFE). No formal responsibility has been assigned to compile Government Finance Statistics (GFS) following international standards, but data sharing within the MPF and reporting arrangements with respondents outside the budget system promote the regular compilation of summary data and main aggregates using the GFS methodology. Staff and technological resources are minimally adequate to compile budget execution data, but not commensurate with the needs for compiling comprehensive GFS. There is a recognition that quality is a cornerstone of the statistical process, as demonstrated by the emphasis on the ongoing development of a modern management and financial information system in the MPF. However, the importance of generating fiscal statistics aligned with internationally recognized standards has yet to permeate all units. Trade-off between accuracy and timeliness are implicitly acknowledged through the dissemination of more detailed budget execution data and summary GFS with a broader scope and more in line with internationally accepted definitions.

25. The Organic Law of the Bank of Mozambique, the Law of the National Statistical System, and the Foreign Exchange Law provide the BOM with the legal framework for the collection and dissemination of BOP and monetary statistics. Confidentiality of the respondent’s data and their exclusive use for statistical purposes are guaranteed by these laws and the Credit and Financial Corporations Law. There is a legal mandate to ensure statistical reporting, but considerable lags in reporting data for balance of payments indicate that reinforcement is needed. The arrangements for data sharing within the BOM are adequate for compiling monetary statistics; however, the cooperation between the Customs Directorate (DGA), the NIS, and the BOM on data sharing and coordination for compiling the balance of payments should be formalized and extended beyond external trade statistics delays and duplication of efforts. BOM staff are experienced and have a good knowledge of international statistical standards. Existing staff resources are adequate for compiling monetary accounts, but more human and technological resources are required to fully adopt the BPM5 methodology and to compile, in the longer term, the International Investments Position (IIP) and the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity. BOM managers and staff are aware of the importance of quality, but no systematic procedures are in place to monitor the quality of statistical outputs. The BOM lacks advisory bodies to review the quality of its statistics, and does not seek regular feedback from users regarding timeliness, accuracy, and comprehensiveness of data.

Integrity

Integrity identifies features that support firm adherence to objectivity in the collection, compilation, and dissemination of statistics so as to maintain users’ confidence. Elements refer to the professionalism and ethical standards that should guide policies and practices, which should be reinforced by their transparency.

26. The Law of the Statistical System defines the role of the NIS as an independent data producing agency, supporting the compilation of national accounts and price statistics on an impartial basis. Choices of sources and methods are based solely on professional statistical considerations. The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, compiled, and disseminated are available to the public, including on the NIS website. There is no evidence of internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release to the public. Statistical outputs of the NIS are clearly identified as such and the institution has a coordinator with the mass media, who is entitled to comment on various issues, including the erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics. However, except for the consumer price index, advanced notice is not always given about major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. The Law of the Statistical System and the Statutes of Public Servants provide guidelines on ethical standards that are well known to the staff.

27. The MPF compiles GFS on an impartial basis and choices of data sources are based solely on statistical considerations. Public accounting system regulations provide for the strict application of accounting principles in the compilation of budget execution data. MPF staff are entitled to provide clarifications in cases of misuse or erroneous interpretation of data, but these are very infrequent. Terms and conditions under which statistics are produced are available to the public, but internal government access to data prior to public release is not formally disclosed. Statistical outputs of the MFP are not clearly identified as such and advance notice is not always given about major changes in methodology. Professionalism of MPF staff is promoted by encouraging analytical work and participation in specialized fora. The Statutes of Public Servants and the Public Administration Code and Regulation provide ethical guidelines, which are known to the staff.

28. Under the guidance of the NSI, the BOM is independent in the determination of its compilation methods and dissemination practices for monetary and BOP statistics. The professionalism of the BOM staff is promoted by encouraging participation in seminars, training courses, and meetings with compilers of other central banks in the region. Statistics are compiled on an impartial basis and staff are free to choose the most appropriate sources and statistical techniques. Terms and conditions under which balance of payment statistics are produced are made known to the survey respondents and other data providers. BOM statistical products are not always identified as such. There is no internal government access to balance of payments or monetary statistics prior to their release to the public. The BOM provides clarifications in cases of erroneous interpretation of the data but does not provide explanatory materials to prevent misuse of statistics. Users are generally not informed of major changes in methodology and data sources. A Code of Conduct, which provides ethical guidelines, is well known to the staff.

Methodological soundness

Methodological soundness refers to the application of international standards, guidelines, and agreed practices. Application of such standards, which are specific to the dataset, is indicative of the soundness of the data and fosters international comparability. Elements refer to the basic building blocks of concepts and definitions, scope, classification and sectorization, and basis for recording.

29. The overall structure of the national accounts in terms of concepts and definitions follows the 1993 SNA, and the scope and classification systems are largely consistent with internationally accepted standards. The delineation of the economy and the production and asset boundaries are also largely in accordance with the 1993 SNA. However, the coverage of informal activities is limited. Market prices are used to value flows and stocks, but valuation in terms of basic prices is not followed. Recording is done on an accrual basis, except for the government sector, and grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards. The NIS has recently started working in the compilation of quarterly GDP estimates.

30. The concepts and definitions for compiling the CPI7 are broadly in line with internationally accepted standards, as defined by the International Labor Organization, United Nations, and others. The classification system is outdated. Although the coverage of the CPI being assessed is limited to the capital city, the NIS also compiles CPIs for Beira and Nampula, and has plans to extend the geographical coverage in the short term to other areas. Actual market transaction prices paid by householders (valued at purchasers’ prices) are used. The NIS collects prices through field surveys once a month (for nonperishable goods) and weekly (for perishable goods), and the weights are based on the HBS.

31. The overall structure of the budget, budget execution data, and GFS is broadly in line with international guidelines (GFSM 1986). However, the scope of the data is not comprehensive because the revenues and expenditures collected directly by government institutions (own resources) are only partially covered, and investment expenditures financed by foreign grants outside the budget system are not covered. The definition of the government institutional sector is not fully in accordance with international standards, but classification systems and the basis for recording are in accordance with these standards. Privatization proceeds are treated as financing, and data include grants in kind, as well as the equivalent disbursements thereof, which is already in line with the GFSM 2001.

32. For the compilation of monetary statistics, the BOM mostly follows the methodology recommended in the IMF’s draft Guide to Money and Banking Statistics in International Financial Statistics 1984. The BOM compiles monthly monetary statistics that consolidate the accounts of the BOM and other depository corporations, but the accounts of a depository corporation established in January 2002 are not yet included in the consolidated data. The delimitation of the government institutional sector is not fully in accordance with international standards. The BOM intends to revise its procedures and formats for the collection and compilation of monetary statistics in accordance with the MFSM. This involves improving the sectorization of institutional units and the classification of financial instruments. Depository corporations classify their accounts between residents and nonresidents mainly according to the nationality of the account holder, rather than the principle of center of economic interest. Both the BOM and other depository corporations apply market price valuation of financial assets and liabilities, and they record assets and liabilities on both accrual and gross basis, all in line with international standards.

33. Concepts and definitions for balance of payments statistics are in broad conformity with international standards, with the exception of the definition of residency, which does not follow the principle of center of economic interest. The coverage of transactions is deficient, especially for services, current and capital transfers, foreign direct investments, and private debt. Also, there are shortcomings in the classification of services and other investments, and data on portfolio investment are not currently compiled. As a general principle, the basis for recording is consistent with internationally accepted guidelines.

Accuracy and reliability

Accuracy and reliability identify features that contribute to the goal that data portray reality. Elements refer to identified features of the source data, statistical techniques, and supporting assessments and validation.

34. Source data for the national accounts are not collected from comprehensive statistical collection programs by economic activity. However, data sources are reasonably consistent with the required definitions, scope, classifications, and valuation, although source data are available only with protracted delays. Statistical techniques for data compilation, adjustment, and transformations are, in broad terms, adequate. Source data are routinely assessed and the results of the assessments are monitored and made available to guide planning. However, the annual business register is not assessed regularly. Main intermediate data are validated against other information where applicable. Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data and problems in statistical outputs are assessed and investigated. The magnitude of revisions between preliminary and revised data are also investigated, but no formal studies are made of such revisions.

35. The CPI is compiled using the weights and prices obtained from the HBS, and the weights are updated every five years using the results of the latest survey. The current CPI uses weights from the 1996-1997 HBS. The design and coverage of the HBS are consistent with the framework of the CPI. The estimates from HBS are compiled at a sufficiently detailed level for effective use as index weights. However, the arithmetic mean of price relatives is used, which is likely to introduce bias. In the absence of a census of establishments, the sample of retail establishments for price collection is selected using a non-scientific random technique. Prices are collected on a monthly basis (for nonperishable goods) and weekly (for perishable goods), mainly by personal visits. The surveyors are well trained to price the same item over time. Deviations from established practices are kept under review, and adequate supervision and edit checks (both manual and computerized) are undertaken. New HBS data are compared with data from the previous survey and adjustments are made as necessary, especially if standard errors are high. Cross-checks between the CPI and the GDP implicit price index show similar trends. Unusual price movements are constantly monitored, and unusual geographical trends are monitored to ensure that they are realistic. Revisions are made to index numbers as a result of either errors, misreporting, or the introduction of new weights or methodology. If the methodology or weights are revised, the index number series are revised. The NIS does not estimate a monthly producer price index (PPI) nor prices indices for exports/imports.

36. Source data for the general government operations are consistent with the recommendations of the GFSM 1986. Detailed and accurate budget execution data are available on a quarterly basis, albeit with restricted coverage. Data are also available for quarterly GFS covering the general government. Although part of the process is computerized, the compilation system relies on outdated procedures, is not integrated, and is mostly manual. Data on government operations are revised as needed, by incorporating changes/revisions detected in the cumulative data produced. Preliminary annual data are replaced by final data following the approval of the budget execution data by the National Assembly (about 18 months after the end of the fiscal year). No formal studies are made of such revisions, which are believed to be statistically insignificant.

37. Monetary statistics are derived from accounting records of the BOM and depository corporations, except for data on foreign assets of the BOM, which are obtained from administrative records. At present, source data reported to the BOM are not in accordance with the concepts and definitions recommended in the MFSM. The BOM plans to implement a new data-reporting framework following the principles of the MFSM. The timeliness of the source data is adequate and the statistical techniques used in the compilation of depository corporations data are sound; however, BOM statistics are still compiled manually. Data revisions are infrequent and are made only when needed, based on the availability of more accurate data. Studies and analyses of revisions are not conducted on a regular basis.

38. The main data sources for the compilation of the balance of payments are the custom forms submitted electronically by the DGA to the NIS, and the reports presented to the BOM by the depository corporations engaged in foreign exchange operations. Deficiencies in coverage and classification in the balance of payments reflect gaps in data sources. Compilation methods do not have the capability for checks to minimize errors. There is a need to improve the timeliness of source data. Most data compilation processes are done manually. Given current resource constraints, efforts to improve the coverage, classification, and validation of source data are limited. There is no estimation of under-coverage, nonsurveyed, or nonrespondent components for survey data. However, the implementation of a quarterly survey for foreign direct investment and the improved monthly survey of foreign exchange transactions should improve the overall accuracy of balance of payments statistics. Annual data on outstanding public debt (multilateral and bilateral) are reconciled with those of creditors, but total debt data are not verified against those compiled by international organizations. Data revisions are made as needed, based on the availability of more accurate data, but no formal studies are made of such revisions.

Serviceability

Serviceability focuses on the practical aspects of how well a dataset meets users’ needs. Elements refer to the extent to which data are relevant, produced, and disseminated in a timely fashion with appropriate periodicity, are consistent internally and with other datasets, and follow a predictable revisions policy.

39. In general, the NIS assesses whether economic statistics adequately respond to government needs. Also, the National Council of Statistics provides guidance to all official agencies on statistical matters. However, there are no systematic procedures to assess the relevance of data to users of statistics outside the government sector. The timeliness of preliminary annual GDP estimates meets GDDS recommendations, but quarterly GDP estimates are not compiled. Consistent time series for national accounts are available and are largely internally consistent, but there are some discrepancies with other statistical frameworks. Preliminary data are identified as such, but no detailed methodological notes are disseminated. Revisions follow a regular, well-established schedule, but neither the revisions policy nor studies and analyses of such revisions are made public.

40. Beyond the guidance provided by the National Council of Statistics, there is no specific consultation with users of the CPI, while the availability of methodological notes or studies is very limited. The monthly CPI for Maputo is released within 10 days of the end of the reference month, thereby meeting GDDS periodicity and timeliness recommendations. The CPI is internally consistent and in line with the national accounts deflator. Revisions policy is made known to the public.

41. GFS are mainly produced for the government’s use in determining and evaluating fiscal policy. There are no formal processes to seek other users’ views on the analytical usefulness of the data disseminated. Periodicity meets the GDDS recommendations, but the timeliness of the annual comprehensive data falls well short of the recommendations. Data are internally consistent. However, improvements/changes in coverage and classifications in recent years make reconciliation over a period of time very difficult. Differences in the sectorization of the economy and in the time and basis of recording some transactions hamper the reconciliation of government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics. GFS are broadly consistent with national accounts. Revisions to quarterly data are not made known to the public, since data are published on a cumulative basis.

42. The BOM does not have an active policy of regular consultation with users on the relevance and practical utility of monetary statistics. The monetary data meet the periodicity and the timeliness recommendations of the GDDS. The positions between the BOM and the other depository corporations show discrepancies, mainly due to differences in the time of recording transactions. Changes in methodology affecting time series are not explained in the BOM’s publications. Differences in institutional coverage are the main source of discrepancies between monetary and fiscal data, which are not reconciled regularly. The BOM has no formal revision policy for monetary statistics, which is not generally made known to the public.

43. Mozambique disseminates quarterly and annual balance of payments statistics within a quarter after the end of the reference period, thereby exceeding the GDDS periodicity and timeliness recommendations. There is no established consultation procedures with users. Annual balance of payments statistics dating from 1997, and quarterly data for the first quarter of 2001 and 2002, are available on the BOM website. Data, as far back as 1980, have been converted to the requirements of the BPM5 and are expected to be made available to the public in the near future. The balance of payments statistics are mostly internally consistent, although the level of net errors and omissions has been significant over time. Problems in sectorization and classification result in discrepancies with other statistical frameworks. New sources are incorporated to the data as soon as they become available, but the revisions policy is not made known to the public.

Accessibility

Accessibility deals with the availability of information to users. Elements refers to the extent to which data and metadata are clear and readily available, and to what extent user assistance is adequate for finding and using the data provided.

44. To a large extent, national accounts statistics are disseminated in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (i.e., layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts), but no analysis of current-period developments is included. Dissemination media and formats are adequate, but only with a significant lag. Statistics are not released on a pre-announced schedule, but are made available to all users at the same time. Nonpublished (but nonconfidential) sub-aggregates are made available upon request; however, the availability of this service is not publicized. Detailed metadata are not disseminated to the public, and the available information does not fully meet user needs. A contact person for each subject field is publicized, but assistance to users is not monitored regularly. Catalogues of publications, documents, and other services are not widely available.

45. The monthly CPI is disseminated through a monthly press release, on the NIS website (one hour after the press release), and through the NIS Monthly Bulletin. Although there is no advance release calendar, the NIS follows an internal publication schedule that is well known to the main users. A statement on the methodology for compiling the CPI is available on request from the NIS at the Department of Consumer Price Index and Short Term Indicators. The NIS provides detailed information, analysis, commentary, and charts to supplement the data upon request. Contact information is publicized in the Monthly Bulletin. A catalogue of publications is not available, but adequate support service to users is provided.

46. The quarterly reports of the MPF, which are the only means of disseminating GFS, provide an overview of the budget structure and main definitions used. However, these reports are targeted to a restricted audience and are not presented in a manner that facilitates wider analytical usefulness and international comparability. There is no formal GFS publication, and data are not disseminated through electronic means. Dissemination processes that lead to selected government users obtaining access to statistics prior to other users are not made known to the public. There is no pre-announced schedule of release dates, but reports are generally available within 45 days. No contact person is identified in the quarterly reports to provide assistance to users.

47. Monetary statistics are disseminated in the BOM Quarterly Statistical Bulletin and on its website, in both Portuguese and English. Although there is no publicly-announced advance release calendar, the BOM strictly follows an internal publication schedule, according to which monthly monetary data are released no later than the 25th of the following month. Monetary data are simultaneously released to the public on the BOM website. Nonpublished (but nonconfidential) data are available upon request. Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is not adequate to meet user needs. Contact information is not available on the BOM website; the Quarterly Statistical Bulletin lists as a contact the BOM’s telephone number and an extension. Publications, documents, and other services are charged. Although there is no formal catalogue of publications on the BOM website, the BOM’s Center of Documentation has a list of the available publications.

48. The dissemination format for the balance of payments statistics is broadly adequate. The BOM’s monthly Preços e Conjuntura Financeira and the Annual Report include an analysis of balance of payments data with relevant charts and tables. Data are released simultaneously to all interested parties on the BOM website and in hardcopy. There is no formal pre-announced schedule of release dates, but it is well known to users that data are available within the first quarter after the end of the reference period. Metadata on the methodology for balance of payments statistics is published in the IMF’s Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook. However, more comprehensive metadata on sources and methodology, namely regarding the methodological changes from BPM4 to BPM5, are not available to users. Non-published (but nonconfidential) data are made available upon request. Contact information for balance of payments statistics is not available on the BOM website; the Quarterly Statistical Bulletin lists as a contact the BOM’s telephone number and an extension. Publications, documents, and other services are charged. Although there is no formal catalogue of publications on the BOM website, the BOM’s Center of Documentation has a list of the available publications.

IV. Staff’s Recommendations

49. Based on the results of the data quality assessment, discussions with the Mozambican authorities in the statistical agencies, and responses from data users, the following measures are proposed to further increase Mozambique’s adherence to international statistical standards. These recommendations build upon the authorities’ ongoing plans for improvement. Where applicable, recommendations are subdivided into “short-term” and “medium-term.”

General recommendations

  • Strengthen human, technological, and financial resources dedicated to the compilation of official statistics and to the forging of a statistical culture in Mozambique.

  • Strengthen coordination among institutions to enhance inter-sectoral consistency of data.

  • In consultation with data users, undertake a complete review of data dissemination policies and practices addressing at least the following: (i) the presentation of statistical information (tables, text, charts, etc.); (ii) analysis of statistics (main features, commentary); (iii) advanced release calendars; (iv) strict and unambiguous embargo arrangements, including any pre-releases; (v) revisions policy and (vi) publicizing the availability of statistical publications, more detailed unpublished statistics, and metadata.

  • Develop human resource capability, e.g., by organizing seminars on methodological issues for compilers of official statistics and encouraging participation in relevant seminars and training courses.

  • Strengthen enforcement of data reporting, e.g., by updating and enforcing the pecuniary penalties for non-reporters established in the Law and more intensive use of moral suasion.

National accounts

Short-term

  • Strengthen collaboration with the providers of information to improve the accuracy and timeliness of source data.

  • Improve the estimates of informal activities (e.g., shuttle trade).

Medium-term

  • Maintain an updated business register as the basis for sample surveys.

  • Develop economic censuses and sectoral surveys to improve the estimates of GDP by origin.

Price statistics

Short-term

  • Improve statistical techniques, for example, by using random sampling techniques to select the outlets from which prices are collected.

  • Use the geometric mean of price relatives for calculating the indices at the element level to reduce the bias in the calculations.

  • Adopt the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purposes (COICOP) and the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) to harmonize the CPI with other datasets and to enhance international comparability.

Medium-term

  • Estimate other price indices, such as exports and imports, and agricultural products to validate intermediate and final data.

  • Coordinate closely with the staff of the National Accounts Directorate, particularly regarding classifications and weighting to improve the consistency of the CPI with national accounts.

  • Compile a monthly PPI incorporating the services sector.

Government finance statistics

Short-term

  • Realign the definition of the general government sector (sector das administrações públicas) to be fully consistent with internationally accepted definitions. Adopt this definition in the scope of the new Integrated Management and Financial Information System (SISTAFE) to foster inter-sectoral consistency and international comparability of the GFS.

  • Assign the responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating government finance statistics, and allocate commensurate staff and computer resources.

  • Improve the coverage and timelines of comprehensive annual fiscal data.

Medium-term

  • Develop a plan for adopting the framework and classification system recommended in the GFSM 2001, as part of the implementation of the SISTAFE. Ensure that the SISTAFE has the capability of generating automatically comprehensive statistics following the GFS framework.

  • Disseminate all fiscal data (presented in the format of the execution of the budget and in GFS format, if different) in a time series format and with relevant annotations to enhance consistency over time and identify breaks in time series.

Monetary statistics

Short-term

  • Improve the BOM’s accounting data on foreign assets to eliminate the need for adjustments with data from administrative records.

  • Adopt a definition of residency based on the principle of center of economic interest.

  • Adopt a system for electronic reporting of BOM balance sheet data to minimize processing time and errors.

  • Establish a committee within the BOM to provide guidance on data quality issues.

Balance of payments

Short-term

  • Fully adopt BPM5 concepts and methodology in compiling balance of payments statistics, and revise and disseminate historical data.

  • Improve the coverage of the balance of payments by adopting the survey of foreign exchange transactions conducted by depository corporations, based on BPM5, and implementing new surveys to capture data on small enterprises, services, private sector external debt, current and capital transfers, and financial account transactions.

Medium-term

  • Compile the IIP and the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity following the IMF methodology.

1

The ROSC mission overlapped with a GDDS project mission to assist in the development of the GDDS metadata.

2

With the assistance of the authorities, an informal survey was conducted among academics, media, international organizations and bilateral donors, banks, and public sector agencies. The results of the survey are presented in Appendix IV of the accompanying Detailed Assessments document.

3

The mission team was headed by Mr. Edgar Ayales and included Mrs. Candida Andrade, Messrs. Alfredo Torrez and Gillmore Hoefdraad (all STA), Messrs. Gerardo Aceituno and Antonio Puig (external consultants), and Mr. Ricardo Davico (STA—Research Assistant).

4

Appendix I in the accompanying Detailed Assessment document provides more details on the comparison of current practices vis-à-vis the GDDS.

5

Information on data quality can be found at the IMF website on the “Data Quality Reference Site” (http://dsbb.imf.org/dqrsindex.htm).

6

See also the Generic Framework set out in Appendix III of the accompanying Detailed Assessments document.

7

NIS compiles and disseminates CPIs for Maputo, Beira, and Nampula. The assessment conducted by the mission refers to the CPI for Maputo.