Abstract
This paper examines Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s (Lao PDR) 2002 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and a Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria. Over the past 15 months, Lao PDR has made substantial progress under the PRGF-supported program. Program implementation has been effective, and the program remains broadly on track. All quantitative performance criteria were met except for the net domestic assets of the state commercial banks. On the macroeconomic side, the program for 2002–03 consolidates stabilization efforts.
1. This supplement provides information on the implementation of prior actions and economic developments and policy measures since the release of the staff report (EBS/02/129, July 15, 2002).1 Attached to this paper is a revised proposed Board Decision for the completion of the second review under the PRGF that reflects the change in the timing of World Bank endorsement of the PRSP Preparation Status Report, as well as the revised background section of the Public Information Notice. The thrust of the staff appraisal is unchanged.
2. All of the prior actions for the second review of the PRGF program have now been implemented, with agreement on the terms of reference for the technical assistance mission on public expenditure management, the final prior action, having been reached on August 6. This took longer than expected because of the authorities’ need to consult internally about the systemic weaknesses, especially in treasury operations, and to receive assurances from Fund staff that there would be sufficient discussions before the mission’s recommendations would be included in the conditionality for the PRGF arrangement.
3. Recent economic data underscore the fragility of macroeconomic stabilization.
Inflation rose to 11 percent (year on year) in July 2002, compared to about 7 percent in April and May. This jump was due mainly to the depreciation of the kip in May-July and increases in food prices. Corrective fiscal and monetary policy measures-some already implemented—are expected to bring inflation down to the program’s revised, somewhat higher target of 8 percent by end-2002 (Table 1).
The exchange rate appears to have stabilized in August as a result of corrective measures, following a cumulative depreciation from end-April to mid-August of 9 percent, which brought the total depreciation to 12 percent over the past year.
Commercial Bank and Parallel Exchange Rates, 2000–02
(Kip/US$)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2002, 221; 10.5089/9781451822526.002.A002
Lao P.D.R.: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1998–2002
Nominal GDP (2000): $1,718 million
Population (1999): 5.1 million
GDP per capita (1999): $288
Fund quota: SDR 52.9 million
Latest data for March 2002 unless otherwise indicated.
Staff estimate for 1999 real GDP growth is 5.0 percent; the lower estimate of Fund staff is due to their lower estimate of agricultural sector output, in line with observations of relevant international agencies However, to maintain comparisons with the authorities’ estimates the 7.3 percent growth rate in 1999 is used.
Fiscal data are on a fiscal year basis (October-September).
Money and credit data and official reserves data for 2001 and 2002 are presented on a fiscal year basis.
Data for June 2002.
Data for July, 2002; includes transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing.
Convertible currency debt only; assuming rescheduling of the Russian debt under Naples terms in 2002.
As a ratio of exports of goods and services.
Data as of August 19, 2002.
Data for April 2002.
Lao P.D.R.: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1998–2002
Nominal GDP (2000): $1,718 million
Population (1999): 5.1 million
GDP per capita (1999): $288
Fund quota: SDR 52.9 million
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | Est. | Latest 1/ | Prog. | Rev. Prog. | ||||||
| Nominal GDP (in billions of kip) | 4,240 | 10,329 | 13,671 | 15,599 | … | 17,257 | 17,638 | |||
| Real GDP growth (percent change) 2/ | 4.0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | … | 5.0 | 5.5 | |||
| Prices (percent change) | ||||||||||
| Consumer prices | ||||||||||
| (12-month rate, end-of-period) | 141.9 | 86.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 5/ | 6.0 | 8.0 | ||
| GDP deflator (annual average) | 85.3 | 127.1 | 25.1 | 8.5 | … | 7.2 | 7.2 | |||
| Government budget (percent of GDP) 3/ | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 9.8 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 5/ | 13.9 | 13.1 | ||
| Grants | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 5/ | 3.3 | 3.3 | ||
| Expenditure | 23.6 | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 13.8 | 5/ | 21.9 | 21.0 | ||
| Current account balance (excluding grants) | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5/ | 5.2 | 4.6 | ||
| Overall balance (including grants) | −8.5 | −3.9 | −4.6 | −4.5 | −3.4 | 5/ | −4.6 | −4.6 | ||
| Of which: Bank financing | 0.8 | −0.4 | −0.8 | 1.7 | −1.5 | 5/ | 0.3 | −1.4 | ||
| Money and credit (percent change; end-of-period) 4/ | ||||||||||
| Broad money | 113.3 | 78.4 | 45.7 | 23.1 | 26.4 | 5/ | 19.0 | 20.2 | ||
| Bank credit to the economy | 86.3 | 74.2 | 41.1 | 39.2 | 9.2 | 5/ | 14.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Credit to SOEs | 85.6 | 99.2 | 36.1 | 38.5 | 16.7 | 5/ | 10.8 | −2.0 | ||
| Credit to the private sector | 86.6 | 63.6 | 43.7 | 39.7 | 4.7 | 5/ | 16.2 | 1.2 | ||
| Interest rates (in percent; end-of-period) | ||||||||||
| On one-year deposits | 23 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 5/ | … | … | ||
| On short-term loans | 31-36 | 22-30 | 16-24 | 12-18 | 12-18 | 5/ | … | … | ||
| External trade | ||||||||||
| Trade balance (in millions of U.S. dollars) | −216 | −212 | −218 | −218 | … | −250 | −212 | |||
| Exports (percent change in U.S. dollar value) | 6.4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | −0.3 | … | 3.2 | 6.2 | |||
| Imports (percent change in U.S. dollar value) | −14.7 | 0.3 | 2.1 | −0.4 | … | 2.6 | 2.8 | |||
| Balance of payments (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| Current account balance (including official transfers’) | −5.2 | −4.0 | −1.4 | −3.5 | … | −4.3 | −3.2 | |||
| Overall balance (in millions of U.S. dollars) | −18 | 3 | 44 | … | … | −35 | 5 | |||
| Gross official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) 4/ | 112 | 106 | 127 | 134 | 178 | 6/ | 140 | 177 | ||
| (in months of prospective goods and service imports) | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 6/ | 2.4 | 30 | ||
| Net official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 50 | 53 | 97 | 93 | 98 | 6/ | 98 | 105 | ||
| External debt (in percent) | ||||||||||
| Ratio of public debt-to-GDP 7/ | … | … | 67.8 | 69.2 | … | 72.6 | 84.8 | |||
| Public debt-service ratio 8/ | 4.6 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | … | 7.5 | 7.5 | |||
| Exchange rate | ||||||||||
| Kip per U.S. dollar (end-of-period) | ||||||||||
| Commercial bank rate | 4,274 | 7,600 | 8,140 | 9,490 | 10,310 | 9/ | … | … | ||
| Parallel market rate | 4,750 | 7,575 | 8,170 | 9,560 | 10,460 | 9/ | … | … | ||
| Real effective exchange rate (percent change, annual average) | −23.1 | 5.0 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 10/ | … | … | ||
Latest data for March 2002 unless otherwise indicated.
Staff estimate for 1999 real GDP growth is 5.0 percent; the lower estimate of Fund staff is due to their lower estimate of agricultural sector output, in line with observations of relevant international agencies However, to maintain comparisons with the authorities’ estimates the 7.3 percent growth rate in 1999 is used.
Fiscal data are on a fiscal year basis (October-September).
Money and credit data and official reserves data for 2001 and 2002 are presented on a fiscal year basis.
Data for June 2002.
Data for July, 2002; includes transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing.
Convertible currency debt only; assuming rescheduling of the Russian debt under Naples terms in 2002.
As a ratio of exports of goods and services.
Data as of August 19, 2002.
Data for April 2002.
Lao P.D.R.: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1998–2002
Nominal GDP (2000): $1,718 million
Population (1999): 5.1 million
GDP per capita (1999): $288
Fund quota: SDR 52.9 million
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | Est. | Latest 1/ | Prog. | Rev. Prog. | ||||||
| Nominal GDP (in billions of kip) | 4,240 | 10,329 | 13,671 | 15,599 | … | 17,257 | 17,638 | |||
| Real GDP growth (percent change) 2/ | 4.0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | … | 5.0 | 5.5 | |||
| Prices (percent change) | ||||||||||
| Consumer prices | ||||||||||
| (12-month rate, end-of-period) | 141.9 | 86.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 5/ | 6.0 | 8.0 | ||
| GDP deflator (annual average) | 85.3 | 127.1 | 25.1 | 8.5 | … | 7.2 | 7.2 | |||
| Government budget (percent of GDP) 3/ | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 9.8 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 5/ | 13.9 | 13.1 | ||
| Grants | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 5/ | 3.3 | 3.3 | ||
| Expenditure | 23.6 | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 13.8 | 5/ | 21.9 | 21.0 | ||
| Current account balance (excluding grants) | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5/ | 5.2 | 4.6 | ||
| Overall balance (including grants) | −8.5 | −3.9 | −4.6 | −4.5 | −3.4 | 5/ | −4.6 | −4.6 | ||
| Of which: Bank financing | 0.8 | −0.4 | −0.8 | 1.7 | −1.5 | 5/ | 0.3 | −1.4 | ||
| Money and credit (percent change; end-of-period) 4/ | ||||||||||
| Broad money | 113.3 | 78.4 | 45.7 | 23.1 | 26.4 | 5/ | 19.0 | 20.2 | ||
| Bank credit to the economy | 86.3 | 74.2 | 41.1 | 39.2 | 9.2 | 5/ | 14.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Credit to SOEs | 85.6 | 99.2 | 36.1 | 38.5 | 16.7 | 5/ | 10.8 | −2.0 | ||
| Credit to the private sector | 86.6 | 63.6 | 43.7 | 39.7 | 4.7 | 5/ | 16.2 | 1.2 | ||
| Interest rates (in percent; end-of-period) | ||||||||||
| On one-year deposits | 23 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 5/ | … | … | ||
| On short-term loans | 31-36 | 22-30 | 16-24 | 12-18 | 12-18 | 5/ | … | … | ||
| External trade | ||||||||||
| Trade balance (in millions of U.S. dollars) | −216 | −212 | −218 | −218 | … | −250 | −212 | |||
| Exports (percent change in U.S. dollar value) | 6.4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | −0.3 | … | 3.2 | 6.2 | |||
| Imports (percent change in U.S. dollar value) | −14.7 | 0.3 | 2.1 | −0.4 | … | 2.6 | 2.8 | |||
| Balance of payments (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| Current account balance (including official transfers’) | −5.2 | −4.0 | −1.4 | −3.5 | … | −4.3 | −3.2 | |||
| Overall balance (in millions of U.S. dollars) | −18 | 3 | 44 | … | … | −35 | 5 | |||
| Gross official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) 4/ | 112 | 106 | 127 | 134 | 178 | 6/ | 140 | 177 | ||
| (in months of prospective goods and service imports) | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 6/ | 2.4 | 30 | ||
| Net official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 50 | 53 | 97 | 93 | 98 | 6/ | 98 | 105 | ||
| External debt (in percent) | ||||||||||
| Ratio of public debt-to-GDP 7/ | … | … | 67.8 | 69.2 | … | 72.6 | 84.8 | |||
| Public debt-service ratio 8/ | 4.6 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | … | 7.5 | 7.5 | |||
| Exchange rate | ||||||||||
| Kip per U.S. dollar (end-of-period) | ||||||||||
| Commercial bank rate | 4,274 | 7,600 | 8,140 | 9,490 | 10,310 | 9/ | … | … | ||
| Parallel market rate | 4,750 | 7,575 | 8,170 | 9,560 | 10,460 | 9/ | … | … | ||
| Real effective exchange rate (percent change, annual average) | −23.1 | 5.0 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 10/ | … | … | ||
Latest data for March 2002 unless otherwise indicated.
Staff estimate for 1999 real GDP growth is 5.0 percent; the lower estimate of Fund staff is due to their lower estimate of agricultural sector output, in line with observations of relevant international agencies However, to maintain comparisons with the authorities’ estimates the 7.3 percent growth rate in 1999 is used.
Fiscal data are on a fiscal year basis (October-September).
Money and credit data and official reserves data for 2001 and 2002 are presented on a fiscal year basis.
Data for June 2002.
Data for July, 2002; includes transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing.
Convertible currency debt only; assuming rescheduling of the Russian debt under Naples terms in 2002.
As a ratio of exports of goods and services.
Data as of August 19, 2002.
Data for April 2002.
4. The main factor underlying the recent weakness in the kip appears to be the excessive increase in net bank credit to the government, which exceeded its June benchmark by about 0.4 percent of GDP, after adjustment for the $33 million deposit by the government in the BOL of the proceeds from the electricity company’s (EDL) refinancing operation (see below). Although revenue performance in the June quarter improved to cumulatively two-thirds of the program revenue target, it was not sufficient to offset the seasonal pick-up in spending. Other data show some recent strengthening in both the monetary and fiscal situation. The net domestic assets of the state commercial banks (SCBs) declined in June, to just over its program ceiling, thus reversing most of the breach recorded at end-March. Foreign exchange reserves at end-June were slightly above the program target. In addition, preliminary data for July show an improvement in the budget balance, bringing net credit to the government closer to the program ceiling.
5. In late June the government instructed the EDL to transfer to the treasury the $33 million it received from the refinancing operation of the Theun Hinboun Power Company (THPC) in which EDL has a 60 percent shareholding. As foreshadowed in the Staff Report (Page 15, footnote 11), the international reserves target was adjusted upward and the net bank credit to the government ceiling adjusted downward for this amount. Similarly, bank financing of the budget is reduced by 1.8 percent of GDP but this is excluded from performance assessments. These funds are intended to be mainly used by EDL for new hydroelectric power projects, and the transfer to the government is a transparent means to account for these funds given the gap between the time of receipt and utilization. These funds will not be used until after September 2002, when appropriate projects would be identified, mainly in the hydroelectric sector, and consistent with the medium-term investment plan discussed with the ADB and the World Bank. The financial program in 2002/03 will be adjusted for such drawdowns in the context of the third PRGF review.
6. Fiscal and monetary policies are being strengthened further to ensure that the financial program targets are achieved. In particular, the Ministry of Finance has stepped up its revenue effort, to ensure that the revenue target in the program (13.1 percent of GDP) for 2001/02 is attained. In particular, it is focusing on large taxpayers, including through deploying systems to better track large taxpayers, reducing tax negotiations, and by publishing the names of about 150 delinquent taxpayers. With these revenue measures and additional restraint on spending, increased sales of treasury bills, and the program loan disbursement, the program target for bank financing of the budget is achievable. Monetary policy is being strengthened by raising the required reserves ratio to offset the reduction at the start of 2002, and also by significantly reducing BOL deposits in SCBs.
7. Regarding the near-term structural measures, the technical aspects of the audit of the BOL have now been completed by the National Audit Office with the assistance of an international audit firm, and the full audit should be finalized soon, in compliance with the end-August benchmark.
Lao P.D.R.: Balance Sheet of Bank of Lao P.D.R., 2001–2003
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) Co the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. The adjustment for December 2002 and March 2003 would also reflect drawdowns to be further specified in the third review.
Cumulative from the start of the fiscal year (which runs from October to September).
Lao P.D.R.: Balance Sheet of Bank of Lao P.D.R., 2001–2003
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 22, 2002 | Dec. | Mar. | May | June | July | Sept. | Dec. | Mar. | |||||||||
| Est. | Prog. | Est. | Est. | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Est. | Est. | Rev. Prog. |
Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
||||
| (in billions of kip; end of period) | |||||||||||||||||
| Bank of Lao P.D.R. | |||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 908 | 929 | 932 | 986 | 932 | 1,245 | 1,274 | 1,316 | 969 | 1,282 | 1,064 | 1,377 | 1,112 | 1,424 | |||
| Foreign assets | 1,269 | 1,321 | 1,338 | 1,373 | 1,300 | 1,612 | 1,658 | 1,692 | 1,370 | 1,682 | 1,444 | 1,756 | 1,524 | 1,837 | |||
| Foreign liabilities | −361 | −392 | −405 | −388 | −368 | −368 | −384 | −377 | −401 | −401 | −380 | −380 | −413 | −413 | |||
| Net domestic assets | −85 | −100 | −143 | −99 | −102 | −415 | −382 | −351 | −134 | −447 | −152 | −465 | −185 | −498 | |||
| Domestic credit | 891 | 872 | 815 | 838 | 843 | 531 | 573 | 582 | 764 | 452 | 674 | 362 | 607 | 294 | |||
| Net credit to government | −96 | −67 | −116 | −141 | −115 | −428 | −390 | −387 | −125 | −438 | −130 | −443 | −135 | −448 | |||
| Credit to the economy | 640 | 639 | 640 | 602 | 598 | 598 | 599 | 592 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | |||
| Credit to state enterprises | 489 | 488 | 488 | 453 | 450 | 450 | 454 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | |||
| Credit to private sector | 151 | 151 | 152 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 145 | 142 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | |||
| Credit to banks | 348 | 300 | 291 | 378 | 360 | 360 | 364 | 377 | 291 | 291 | 206 | 206 | 144 | 144 | |||
| BoL securities | −200 | −196 | −199 | −194 | −195 | −195 | −190 | −186 | −148 | −148 | −77 | −77 | −42 | −42 | |||
| Other items, net | −777 | −776 | −759 | −743 | −750 | −750 | −764 | −747 | −750 | −750 | −750 | −750 | −750 | −750 | |||
| of which: medium-term foreign liabilities | −347 | −347 | −352 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −325 | −324 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −322 | |||
| Reserve money | 823 | 829 | 790 | 887 | 830 | 830 | 892 | 965 | 835 | 835 | 912 | 912 | 927 | 927 | |||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars; end of period) | |||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 95.6 | 97.8 | 98.1 | 103.7 | 98.1 | 131.0 | 134.1 | 138.5 | 102.0 | 134.9 | 112.0 | 144.9 | 117.0 | 149.9 | |||
| Gross international reserves | 133.5 | 139.0 | 140.8 | 144.5 | 136.8 | 169.7 | 174.5 | 178.1 | 144.2 | 177.1 | 152.0 | 184.9 | 160.5 | 193.4 | |||
| Required reserves on foreign currency deposits | 29.0 | 30.0 | 28.1 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 29.8 | 37.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 32.1 | 32.1 | |||
| (annual percentage change) | |||||||||||||||||
| Reserve money | 33.4 | 24.9 | 18.9 | 20.0 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 25.5 | 33.3 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | |||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||||
| BoL financing of the budget (in billions of kip) 2/ | −21 | 9 | −40 | −66 | −39 | −352 | −315 | −312 | −49 | −362 | −5 | −5 | −10 | −10 | |||
| Disbursement of program loans (millions of U.S. dollar) 2/ | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | |||
| Actual/Program exchange rate, cop (kip per U.S. dollar) | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | |||
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) Co the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. The adjustment for December 2002 and March 2003 would also reflect drawdowns to be further specified in the third review.
Cumulative from the start of the fiscal year (which runs from October to September).
Lao P.D.R.: Balance Sheet of Bank of Lao P.D.R., 2001–2003
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 22, 2002 | Dec. | Mar. | May | June | July | Sept. | Dec. | Mar. | |||||||||
| Est. | Prog. | Est. | Est. | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Est. | Est. | Rev. Prog. |
Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
||||
| (in billions of kip; end of period) | |||||||||||||||||
| Bank of Lao P.D.R. | |||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 908 | 929 | 932 | 986 | 932 | 1,245 | 1,274 | 1,316 | 969 | 1,282 | 1,064 | 1,377 | 1,112 | 1,424 | |||
| Foreign assets | 1,269 | 1,321 | 1,338 | 1,373 | 1,300 | 1,612 | 1,658 | 1,692 | 1,370 | 1,682 | 1,444 | 1,756 | 1,524 | 1,837 | |||
| Foreign liabilities | −361 | −392 | −405 | −388 | −368 | −368 | −384 | −377 | −401 | −401 | −380 | −380 | −413 | −413 | |||
| Net domestic assets | −85 | −100 | −143 | −99 | −102 | −415 | −382 | −351 | −134 | −447 | −152 | −465 | −185 | −498 | |||
| Domestic credit | 891 | 872 | 815 | 838 | 843 | 531 | 573 | 582 | 764 | 452 | 674 | 362 | 607 | 294 | |||
| Net credit to government | −96 | −67 | −116 | −141 | −115 | −428 | −390 | −387 | −125 | −438 | −130 | −443 | −135 | −448 | |||
| Credit to the economy | 640 | 639 | 640 | 602 | 598 | 598 | 599 | 592 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | |||
| Credit to state enterprises | 489 | 488 | 488 | 453 | 450 | 450 | 454 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | |||
| Credit to private sector | 151 | 151 | 152 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 145 | 142 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | |||
| Credit to banks | 348 | 300 | 291 | 378 | 360 | 360 | 364 | 377 | 291 | 291 | 206 | 206 | 144 | 144 | |||
| BoL securities | −200 | −196 | −199 | −194 | −195 | −195 | −190 | −186 | −148 | −148 | −77 | −77 | −42 | −42 | |||
| Other items, net | −777 | −776 | −759 | −743 | −750 | −750 | −764 | −747 | −750 | −750 | −750 | −750 | −750 | −750 | |||
| of which: medium-term foreign liabilities | −347 | −347 | −352 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −325 | −324 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −322 | −322 | |||
| Reserve money | 823 | 829 | 790 | 887 | 830 | 830 | 892 | 965 | 835 | 835 | 912 | 912 | 927 | 927 | |||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars; end of period) | |||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 95.6 | 97.8 | 98.1 | 103.7 | 98.1 | 131.0 | 134.1 | 138.5 | 102.0 | 134.9 | 112.0 | 144.9 | 117.0 | 149.9 | |||
| Gross international reserves | 133.5 | 139.0 | 140.8 | 144.5 | 136.8 | 169.7 | 174.5 | 178.1 | 144.2 | 177.1 | 152.0 | 184.9 | 160.5 | 193.4 | |||
| Required reserves on foreign currency deposits | 29.0 | 30.0 | 28.1 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 29.8 | 37.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 32.1 | 32.1 | |||
| (annual percentage change) | |||||||||||||||||
| Reserve money | 33.4 | 24.9 | 18.9 | 20.0 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 25.5 | 33.3 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | |||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||||
| BoL financing of the budget (in billions of kip) 2/ | −21 | 9 | −40 | −66 | −39 | −352 | −315 | −312 | −49 | −362 | −5 | −5 | −10 | −10 | |||
| Disbursement of program loans (millions of U.S. dollar) 2/ | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | |||
| Actual/Program exchange rate, cop (kip per U.S. dollar) | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | |||
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) Co the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. The adjustment for December 2002 and March 2003 would also reflect drawdowns to be further specified in the third review.
Cumulative from the start of the fiscal year (which runs from October to September).
Lao P.D.R.: Monetary Survey, 2001–2003
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. The adjustment for December 2002 and March 2003 would also reflect drawdowns to be further specified in the third review.
Excluding Lao Brewery.
Cumulative from the start of the fiscal year (which runs from October to September).
Lao P.D.R.: Monetary Survey, 2001–2003
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 22, 2002 | Dec. | Mar. | May | June | Sept. | Dec. | Mar. | |||||||||
| Est. | Prog. | Est. | Est. | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Est. | Rev. Prog. |
Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
||||
| (in billions of kip; end of period) | ||||||||||||||||
| Monetary Survey | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 1,479 | 1,606 | 1,673 | 1,831 | 1,779 | 2,092 | 2,032 | 1,804 | 2,117 | 1,856 | 2,168 | 1,863 | 2,176 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 306 | 470 | 443 | 563 | 479 | 479 | 473 | 510 | 510 | 515 | 515 | 520 | 520 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 1,226 | 1,252 | 1,214 | 1,169 | 1,252 | 940 | 888 | 1,320 | 1,007 | 1,361 | 1,048 | 1,446 | 1,133 | |||
| of which: SCBs (excl. net credit to gov.) | 1,568 | 1,460 | 1,533 | 1,583 | 1,533 | 1,533 | 1,548 | 1,537 | 1,537 | 1,570 | 1,570 | 1,610 | 1,610 | |||
| Domestic credit | 2,438 | 2,427 | 2,308 | 2,216 | 2,238 | 1,926 | 1,838 | 2,309 | 1,997 | 2,340 | 2,028 | 2,355 | 2,043 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 1,282 | 1,194 | 1,149 | 1,146 | 1,261 | 1,261 | 1,024 | 1,294 | 1,294 | 1,348 | 1,348 | 1,408 | 1,408 | |||
| Net claims on government | −117 | −112 | −134 | −157 | −140 | −453 | −394 | −59 | −372 | −28 | −341 | −13 | −326 | |||
| Claims on the economy | 2,555 | 2,539 | 2,442 | 2,374 | 2,378 | 2,378 | 2,231 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 1,305 | 1,233 | 1,179 | 1,183 | 1,280 | 1,280 | 1,047 | 3,237 | 1,237 | 1,270 | 1,270 | 1,310 | 1,310 | |||
| of which: in foreign currency | 2,066 | 2,039 | 1,964 | 1,914 | 1,902 | 1,902 | 1,805 | 1,837 | 1,837 | 1,787 | 1,787 | 1,737 | 1,737 | |||
| Credit to state enterprises | 1,022 | 928 | 955 | 916 | 910 | 910 | 897 | 850 | 850 | 800 | 800 | 750 | 750 | |||
| Credit to private sector | 1,534 | 1,611 | 1,487 | 1,458 | 1,468 | 3,468 | 1,335 | 1,518 | 1,518 | 1,568 | 1,568 | 1,618 | 1,618 | |||
| Other items (net) | −1,212 | −1,175 | −1,095 | −1,047 | −986 | −986 | −950 | −989 | −989 | −979 | −979 | −909 | −909 | |||
| Broad money | 2,704 | 2,859 | 2,887 | 3,000 | 3,031 | 3,031 | 2,920 | 3,124 | 3,124 | 3,216 | 3,216 | 3,309 | 3,309 | |||
| Domestic currency (cash and deposits) | 673 | 665 | 775 | 785 | 781 | 781 | 766 | 824 | 824 | 866 | 866 | 909 | 909 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits | 2,031 | 2,194 | 2,111 | 2,215 | 2,250 | 2,250 | 2,155 | 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,350 | 2,350 | 2,400 | 2,400 | |||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars; end of period) | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 155.7 | 169.1 | 176.1 | 192.7 | 187.3 | 220.2 | 213.9 | 189.9 | 222.8 | 195.3 | 228.2 | 196.1 | 229.0 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 32.2 | 49.5 | 46.7 | 59.2 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 49.8 | 53.6 | 53.6 | 58.1 | 58.1 | 60.7 | 60.7 | |||
| Foreign currency credit to the economy | 217.5 | 214.6 | 206.8 | 201.5 | 200.2 | 200.2 | 190.0 | 193.4 | 193.4 | 188.1 | 188.1 | 182.8 | 182.8 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 107.3 | 98.2 | 94.1 | 95.8 | 103.2 | 103.2 | 84.4 | 106.7 | 106.7 | 106.5 | 106.5 | 107.0 | 107.0 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits | 213.8 | 231.0 | 222.3 | 233.2 | 236.8 | 236.8 | 226.8 | 242.1 | 242.1 | 247.4 | 247.4 | 252.6 | 252.6 | |||
| (annual percentage change) | ||||||||||||||||
| Broad money | 20.3 | 24.1 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 30.8 | 30.8 | 26.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 14.6 | 14.6 | |||
| Net domestic asset of SCBs (increase from start of fiscal year) 2/ | 0.8 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 14.2 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 16.1 | 16.1 | |||
| Credit to the economy 2/ | 28.2 | 25.4 | 22.8 | 16.5 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −3.0 | −3.0 | |||
| of which: commercial banks 2/ | 27.4 | 28.1 | 21.5 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | −1.8 | −1.8 | |||
| of which: SCBs 2/ | 28.6 | 26.6 | 21.1 | 14.9 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 0.7 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | |||
| Credit to state enterprises 2/ | 40.3 | 22.0 | 28.1 | 20.7 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 16.7 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −5.9 | −5.9 | −21.4 | −21.4 | |||
| 22.4 | 27.4 | 19.6 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 8.8 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||
| Bank financing of the budget (in billions of kip) 3/ | 23 | 29 | 7 | −16 | 1 | −312 | −253 | 82 | −231 | 31 | 31 | 46 | 46 | |||
| Money multiplier | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |||
| Actual/Program exchange rate, eop (kip per U.S. dollar) | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | |||
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. The adjustment for December 2002 and March 2003 would also reflect drawdowns to be further specified in the third review.
Excluding Lao Brewery.
Cumulative from the start of the fiscal year (which runs from October to September).
Lao P.D.R.: Monetary Survey, 2001–2003
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 22, 2002 | Dec. | Mar. | May | June | Sept. | Dec. | Mar. | |||||||||
| Est. | Prog. | Est. | Est. | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Est. | Rev. Prog. |
Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
Prog. | Adj. Prog. 1/ |
||||
| (in billions of kip; end of period) | ||||||||||||||||
| Monetary Survey | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 1,479 | 1,606 | 1,673 | 1,831 | 1,779 | 2,092 | 2,032 | 1,804 | 2,117 | 1,856 | 2,168 | 1,863 | 2,176 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 306 | 470 | 443 | 563 | 479 | 479 | 473 | 510 | 510 | 515 | 515 | 520 | 520 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 1,226 | 1,252 | 1,214 | 1,169 | 1,252 | 940 | 888 | 1,320 | 1,007 | 1,361 | 1,048 | 1,446 | 1,133 | |||
| of which: SCBs (excl. net credit to gov.) | 1,568 | 1,460 | 1,533 | 1,583 | 1,533 | 1,533 | 1,548 | 1,537 | 1,537 | 1,570 | 1,570 | 1,610 | 1,610 | |||
| Domestic credit | 2,438 | 2,427 | 2,308 | 2,216 | 2,238 | 1,926 | 1,838 | 2,309 | 1,997 | 2,340 | 2,028 | 2,355 | 2,043 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 1,282 | 1,194 | 1,149 | 1,146 | 1,261 | 1,261 | 1,024 | 1,294 | 1,294 | 1,348 | 1,348 | 1,408 | 1,408 | |||
| Net claims on government | −117 | −112 | −134 | −157 | −140 | −453 | −394 | −59 | −372 | −28 | −341 | −13 | −326 | |||
| Claims on the economy | 2,555 | 2,539 | 2,442 | 2,374 | 2,378 | 2,378 | 2,231 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | 2,368 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 1,305 | 1,233 | 1,179 | 1,183 | 1,280 | 1,280 | 1,047 | 3,237 | 1,237 | 1,270 | 1,270 | 1,310 | 1,310 | |||
| of which: in foreign currency | 2,066 | 2,039 | 1,964 | 1,914 | 1,902 | 1,902 | 1,805 | 1,837 | 1,837 | 1,787 | 1,787 | 1,737 | 1,737 | |||
| Credit to state enterprises | 1,022 | 928 | 955 | 916 | 910 | 910 | 897 | 850 | 850 | 800 | 800 | 750 | 750 | |||
| Credit to private sector | 1,534 | 1,611 | 1,487 | 1,458 | 1,468 | 3,468 | 1,335 | 1,518 | 1,518 | 1,568 | 1,568 | 1,618 | 1,618 | |||
| Other items (net) | −1,212 | −1,175 | −1,095 | −1,047 | −986 | −986 | −950 | −989 | −989 | −979 | −979 | −909 | −909 | |||
| Broad money | 2,704 | 2,859 | 2,887 | 3,000 | 3,031 | 3,031 | 2,920 | 3,124 | 3,124 | 3,216 | 3,216 | 3,309 | 3,309 | |||
| Domestic currency (cash and deposits) | 673 | 665 | 775 | 785 | 781 | 781 | 766 | 824 | 824 | 866 | 866 | 909 | 909 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits | 2,031 | 2,194 | 2,111 | 2,215 | 2,250 | 2,250 | 2,155 | 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,350 | 2,350 | 2,400 | 2,400 | |||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars; end of period) | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 155.7 | 169.1 | 176.1 | 192.7 | 187.3 | 220.2 | 213.9 | 189.9 | 222.8 | 195.3 | 228.2 | 196.1 | 229.0 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 32.2 | 49.5 | 46.7 | 59.2 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 49.8 | 53.6 | 53.6 | 58.1 | 58.1 | 60.7 | 60.7 | |||
| Foreign currency credit to the economy | 217.5 | 214.6 | 206.8 | 201.5 | 200.2 | 200.2 | 190.0 | 193.4 | 193.4 | 188.1 | 188.1 | 182.8 | 182.8 | |||
| of which: SCBs | 107.3 | 98.2 | 94.1 | 95.8 | 103.2 | 103.2 | 84.4 | 106.7 | 106.7 | 106.5 | 106.5 | 107.0 | 107.0 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits | 213.8 | 231.0 | 222.3 | 233.2 | 236.8 | 236.8 | 226.8 | 242.1 | 242.1 | 247.4 | 247.4 | 252.6 | 252.6 | |||
| (annual percentage change) | ||||||||||||||||
| Broad money | 20.3 | 24.1 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 30.8 | 30.8 | 26.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 14.6 | 14.6 | |||
| Net domestic asset of SCBs (increase from start of fiscal year) 2/ | 0.8 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 14.2 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 16.1 | 16.1 | |||
| Credit to the economy 2/ | 28.2 | 25.4 | 22.8 | 16.5 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −3.0 | −3.0 | |||
| of which: commercial banks 2/ | 27.4 | 28.1 | 21.5 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | −1.8 | −1.8 | |||
| of which: SCBs 2/ | 28.6 | 26.6 | 21.1 | 14.9 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 0.7 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | |||
| Credit to state enterprises 2/ | 40.3 | 22.0 | 28.1 | 20.7 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 16.7 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −5.9 | −5.9 | −21.4 | −21.4 | |||
| 22.4 | 27.4 | 19.6 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 8.8 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||
| Bank financing of the budget (in billions of kip) 3/ | 23 | 29 | 7 | −16 | 1 | −312 | −253 | 82 | −231 | 31 | 31 | 46 | 46 | |||
| Money multiplier | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |||
| Actual/Program exchange rate, eop (kip per U.S. dollar) | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | |||
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. The adjustment for December 2002 and March 2003 would also reflect drawdowns to be further specified in the third review.
Excluding Lao Brewery.
Cumulative from the start of the fiscal year (which runs from October to September).
Lao P.D.R.: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Benchmarks, 2001–2003
Performance criteria.
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. For December 2002 and March 2003, program ceilings for net credit to government, and net domestic assets of the BOL, will be adjusted upward, and the floor for net official international reserves adjusted downward, for the amount of the utilization of the transfer from EDL.
Net domestic assets of the BOL are defined as reserve money minus net foreign assets (NFA) of the BOL adjusted for the valuation changes arising from the difference between the program and actual exchange rates.
For purposes of verifying compliance with the program, the ceiling for net domestic assets of the BOL, net bank credit to the government will be adjusted upward (downward), while the floor on net official international reserves will be adjusted downward (upward) by any shortfall (excess) in external nonproject budget support, and any excess (shortfall) in debt service payments.
Comprising Banque du Commerce Exterieur Lao, Lao May Bank and Lane Xang Bank. Net domestic assets of the SOCBs are defined as total deposits of these banks, less net foreign assets, net claims at the BOL, and net claims on government, all calculated at the program exchange rate.
Net official reserves are calculated as net international reserves on a BOP basis less foreign currency component of required reserves.
Ceiling applies to debts contracted or guaranteed by the government, public enterprises, or the BOL on nonconcessional terms. Ceilings are flows from the start of the program, September 2001. Excludes normal import-related credit any borrowing associated with debt rescheduling, and the loan from Exim Bank of China for the telecommunications enterprise (ETL), for a maximum amount equivalent to US $38 million. (with a 15 year repayment schedule, 2 year grace period and an interest rate of 2 percent) expected to be contracted in 2002, with a grant element of 34.4 percent This performance criterion applies to debt as defined in point No. 9 of the Guidelines on Performance Criteria with Respect to Foreign Debt (Decision No. 12274 (00/85), August 24, 2000).
Continuous performance criterion.
Lao P.D.R.: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Benchmarks, 2001–2003
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. | Mar. 1/ | May | June | Sept. 1/ | Dec. | Mar. 1/ | ||||||||
| Est. | Prog. | Est. | Est. | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 2/ | Est. | Rev. Prog. | Adj. Prog. 2/ | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 2/ | Prog | Adj. Prog. 2/ | ||
| (in billions of kip) | ||||||||||||||
| 1. Net domestic assets of the Bank of LAO P.D.R. (BOL) 3/ 4/ | −85 | −100 | −143 | −99 | −102 | −415 | −382 | −134 | −447 | −152 | −465 | −185 | −498 | |
| 2. Net credit to the government from the banking system 4/ | −117 | −112 | −134 | −157 | −140 | −453 | −394 | −59 | −372 | −28 | −341 | −13 | −326 | |
| 3. Net domestic assets of the state commercial banks (excluding net claims on government) 5/ | 1,568 | 1,460 | 1,533 | 1,583 | 1,533 | 1,533 | 1,548 | 1,537 | 1,537 | 1,570 | 1,570 | 1,610 | 1,610 | |
| (in millions of U.S. dollars) | ||||||||||||||
| 4. Net official international reserves 4/ 6/ | 67 | 68 | 70 | 74 | 69 | 102 | 104 | 72 | 105 | 81 | 114 | 85 | 118 | |
| 5. Publicly contracted or guaranteed nonconcessional external debt 7/ | ||||||||||||||
| - up to one-year maturity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| - maturity of more than 1 year 7/ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| of which: 1–5 years’ maturity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6. External payments arrears 8/ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||||||||
| Nonproject budget support (cumulative flows from start of fiscal year) | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | |
| External debt service payments (cumulative from start of fiscal year) | 5.4 | 14.1 | 13.4 | … | 21.7 | 21.7 | … | 32.5 | 32.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 15.9 | 15.9 | |
| Program exchange rate (kip per dollar) | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | |
| Foreign currency component of required reserves | 29 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | |
Performance criteria.
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. For December 2002 and March 2003, program ceilings for net credit to government, and net domestic assets of the BOL, will be adjusted upward, and the floor for net official international reserves adjusted downward, for the amount of the utilization of the transfer from EDL.
Net domestic assets of the BOL are defined as reserve money minus net foreign assets (NFA) of the BOL adjusted for the valuation changes arising from the difference between the program and actual exchange rates.
For purposes of verifying compliance with the program, the ceiling for net domestic assets of the BOL, net bank credit to the government will be adjusted upward (downward), while the floor on net official international reserves will be adjusted downward (upward) by any shortfall (excess) in external nonproject budget support, and any excess (shortfall) in debt service payments.
Comprising Banque du Commerce Exterieur Lao, Lao May Bank and Lane Xang Bank. Net domestic assets of the SOCBs are defined as total deposits of these banks, less net foreign assets, net claims at the BOL, and net claims on government, all calculated at the program exchange rate.
Net official reserves are calculated as net international reserves on a BOP basis less foreign currency component of required reserves.
Ceiling applies to debts contracted or guaranteed by the government, public enterprises, or the BOL on nonconcessional terms. Ceilings are flows from the start of the program, September 2001. Excludes normal import-related credit any borrowing associated with debt rescheduling, and the loan from Exim Bank of China for the telecommunications enterprise (ETL), for a maximum amount equivalent to US $38 million. (with a 15 year repayment schedule, 2 year grace period and an interest rate of 2 percent) expected to be contracted in 2002, with a grant element of 34.4 percent This performance criterion applies to debt as defined in point No. 9 of the Guidelines on Performance Criteria with Respect to Foreign Debt (Decision No. 12274 (00/85), August 24, 2000).
Continuous performance criterion.
Lao P.D.R.: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Benchmarks, 2001–2003
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. | Mar. 1/ | May | June | Sept. 1/ | Dec. | Mar. 1/ | ||||||||
| Est. | Prog. | Est. | Est. | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 2/ | Est. | Rev. Prog. | Adj. Prog. 2/ | Prog. | Adj. Prog. 2/ | Prog | Adj. Prog. 2/ | ||
| (in billions of kip) | ||||||||||||||
| 1. Net domestic assets of the Bank of LAO P.D.R. (BOL) 3/ 4/ | −85 | −100 | −143 | −99 | −102 | −415 | −382 | −134 | −447 | −152 | −465 | −185 | −498 | |
| 2. Net credit to the government from the banking system 4/ | −117 | −112 | −134 | −157 | −140 | −453 | −394 | −59 | −372 | −28 | −341 | −13 | −326 | |
| 3. Net domestic assets of the state commercial banks (excluding net claims on government) 5/ | 1,568 | 1,460 | 1,533 | 1,583 | 1,533 | 1,533 | 1,548 | 1,537 | 1,537 | 1,570 | 1,570 | 1,610 | 1,610 | |
| (in millions of U.S. dollars) | ||||||||||||||
| 4. Net official international reserves 4/ 6/ | 67 | 68 | 70 | 74 | 69 | 102 | 104 | 72 | 105 | 81 | 114 | 85 | 118 | |
| 5. Publicly contracted or guaranteed nonconcessional external debt 7/ | ||||||||||||||
| - up to one-year maturity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| - maturity of more than 1 year 7/ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| of which: 1–5 years’ maturity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6. External payments arrears 8/ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||||||||
| Nonproject budget support (cumulative flows from start of fiscal year) | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | |
| External debt service payments (cumulative from start of fiscal year) | 5.4 | 14.1 | 13.4 | … | 21.7 | 21.7 | … | 32.5 | 32.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 15.9 | 15.9 | |
| Program exchange rate (kip per dollar) | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | |
| Foreign currency component of required reserves | 29 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | |
Performance criteria.
Adjusted for the transfer of $33 million from the electric company (EDL) to the government from the Theun-Hinboun Power Company (THPC) refinancing. For December 2002 and March 2003, program ceilings for net credit to government, and net domestic assets of the BOL, will be adjusted upward, and the floor for net official international reserves adjusted downward, for the amount of the utilization of the transfer from EDL.
Net domestic assets of the BOL are defined as reserve money minus net foreign assets (NFA) of the BOL adjusted for the valuation changes arising from the difference between the program and actual exchange rates.
For purposes of verifying compliance with the program, the ceiling for net domestic assets of the BOL, net bank credit to the government will be adjusted upward (downward), while the floor on net official international reserves will be adjusted downward (upward) by any shortfall (excess) in external nonproject budget support, and any excess (shortfall) in debt service payments.
Comprising Banque du Commerce Exterieur Lao, Lao May Bank and Lane Xang Bank. Net domestic assets of the SOCBs are defined as total deposits of these banks, less net foreign assets, net claims at the BOL, and net claims on government, all calculated at the program exchange rate.
Net official reserves are calculated as net international reserves on a BOP basis less foreign currency component of required reserves.
Ceiling applies to debts contracted or guaranteed by the government, public enterprises, or the BOL on nonconcessional terms. Ceilings are flows from the start of the program, September 2001. Excludes normal import-related credit any borrowing associated with debt rescheduling, and the loan from Exim Bank of China for the telecommunications enterprise (ETL), for a maximum amount equivalent to US $38 million. (with a 15 year repayment schedule, 2 year grace period and an interest rate of 2 percent) expected to be contracted in 2002, with a grant element of 34.4 percent This performance criterion applies to debt as defined in point No. 9 of the Guidelines on Performance Criteria with Respect to Foreign Debt (Decision No. 12274 (00/85), August 24, 2000).
Continuous performance criterion.
A staff team comprising Messrs. Winglee and Hussain (both APD) and assisted by Mr. Sidgwick (Resident Representative), held supplementary discussion in Vientiane during August 5–9, 2002.
