Front Matter Page
© 2002 International Monetary Fund
February 2002
IMF Country Report No. 02/22
Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues
This Selected Issues paper for the Republic of Belarus was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 4, 2002. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessary reflect the views of the government of the Republic of Belarus or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Front Matter Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
BELARUS
Selected Issues
Prepared by željko bogetić, Jean-Jacques Hallaert, Alfred Schipke, and Joerg Zeuner (all EU2)
Approved by the European II Department
January 4, 2002
Contents
Basic Data
I. Overview
Belarus: Basic Data, 1995-2001 (June)
Measured at the official exchange rate.
Consolidated (cash) position, including local governments, budgetary funds, and the social protection fund.
Includes an adjustment for discrepancy between monetary and fiscal data.
Unadjusted for exchange rate variation.
Data have been revised backward to reflect the redenomination of the rubel on January 1, 2000, which removed three zeros from the currency.
| 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Mar | Jan-Jun | ||||||||||
| Social and demographic indicators | |||||||||||
| Area (km 2) | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | |||
| Population (in thousands) | 10,297 | 10,264 | 10,236 | 10,204 | 10,045 | 10,020 | 9,984 | 9,980 | |||
| Urban | 7,061 | 7,072 | 7,090 | 7,123 | 6,962 | 6,985 | … | … | |||
| Rural | 3,236 | 3,193 | 3,146 | 3,081 | 3,084 | 3,034 | … | … | |||
| Population density (inhabitants per sq. km.) | 50 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | |||
| Life expectancy at birth (in years) | 68.6 | 68.6 | 68.5 | 68.4 | 67.9 | … | … | … | |||
| Infant mortality rate (per thousand) | 13.3 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.3 | |||
| Annual population growth rate (in percent) | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -0.3 | … | … | |||
| GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars) 1/ | 10,531 | 14,361 | 14,006 | 15,116 | 12,099 | 12,728 | 2,550 | 5,447 | |||
| GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars) 1/ | 1,023 | 1,399 | 1,368 | 1,481 | 1,204 | 1,270 | … | … | |||
| (Percentage changes in constant prices) | |||||||||||
| Output | |||||||||||
| GDP | -10.4 | 2.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 3.5 | |||
| Of which: | |||||||||||
| Industry | -10.3 | 4.7 | 17.7 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 1.1 | … | |||
| Agriculture | -2.4 | 1.5 | -5.4 | -1.7 | -7.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | … | |||
| Industrial production | -11.7 | 3.5 | 18.8 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 6.1 | |||
| (Percentage changes) | |||||||||||
| Prices and Wages | |||||||||||
| Producer prices (end-of-period; year-on-year) | 122 | 31 | 91 | 200 | 239 | 168 | 119 | 80 | |||
| Consumer prices (end-of-period; year-on-year) | 244 | 39 | 63 | 182 | 251 | 108 | 78 | 65 | |||
| Average wage, excluding kolkhozes | 670 | 60 | 88 | 102 | 321 | 198 | 121 | 120 | |||
| Minimum wage (end-of-period; year-on-year) | 200 | 67 | 100 | 75 | 314 | 148 | 92 | 113 | |||
| (In U.S. dollars) | |||||||||||
| Average wage (end-of-period) 1/ | 88 | 103 | 108 | 83 | 110 | 76 | 81 | 91 | |||
| Minimum wage (end-of-period) 1/ | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |||
| (In percent of GDP) | |||||||||||
| General government finance 2/ | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 40.3 | 40.8 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 45.7 | 43.3 | 48.4 | 47.5 | |||
| Expenditure 3/ | 42.2 | 42.4 | 46.2 | 44.8 | 47.9 | 43.9 | 49.4 | 48.5 | |||
| Balance 3/ | -1.9 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -2.2 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -1.0 | |||
| (Percentage changes from previous period) | |||||||||||
| Money and credit | |||||||||||
| Rubel broad money | 292 | 67 | 103 | 130 | 195 | 124 | 13 | 44 | |||
| Banking system net domestic credit 4/ | 160 | 59 | 116 | 300 | 143 | 182 | 12 | 28 | |||
| Refinance rate (percent per annum, end-of-period) | 66 | 35 | 42 | 48 | 110 | 90 | 70 | 55 | |||
| (In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||||
| Merchandise trade | |||||||||||
| Exports of goods | 4,803 | 5,790 | 7,383 | 7,138 | 5,646 | 6,987 | 1,777 | 3638.5 | |||
| Imports of goods | -5,469 | -6,939 | -8,718 | -8,488 | -6,216 | -7,825 | -1,723 | -3755.2 | |||
| Trade balance | -666 | -1,149 | -1,335 | -1,350 | -570 | -838 | 54 | -117 | |||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | -4.4 | -3.7 | -5.8 | -6.1 | -1.6 | -1.3 | 8.4 | 4.4 | |||
| Exchange rate (in rubels per U.S. dollar; end-of-period) 5/ | 12 | 16 | 31 | 107 | 320 | 1,180 | 1,293 | 1,378 | |||
| (in rubels per U.S. dollar; period average) | 12 | 13 | 26 | 46 | 250 | 717 | 1,230 | 1,287 | |||
| Goss convertible official reserves | 377 | 369 | 394 | 345 | 309 | 357 | 372 | 414 | |||
Measured at the official exchange rate.
Consolidated (cash) position, including local governments, budgetary funds, and the social protection fund.
Includes an adjustment for discrepancy between monetary and fiscal data.
Unadjusted for exchange rate variation.
Data have been revised backward to reflect the redenomination of the rubel on January 1, 2000, which removed three zeros from the currency.
| 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Mar | Jan-Jun | ||||||||||
| Social and demographic indicators | |||||||||||
| Area (km 2) | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | 207,600 | |||
| Population (in thousands) | 10,297 | 10,264 | 10,236 | 10,204 | 10,045 | 10,020 | 9,984 | 9,980 | |||
| Urban | 7,061 | 7,072 | 7,090 | 7,123 | 6,962 | 6,985 | … | … | |||
| Rural | 3,236 | 3,193 | 3,146 | 3,081 | 3,084 | 3,034 | … | … | |||
| Population density (inhabitants per sq. km.) | 50 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | |||
| Life expectancy at birth (in years) | 68.6 | 68.6 | 68.5 | 68.4 | 67.9 | … | … | … | |||
| Infant mortality rate (per thousand) | 13.3 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.3 | |||
| Annual population growth rate (in percent) | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -0.3 | … | … | |||
| GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars) 1/ | 10,531 | 14,361 | 14,006 | 15,116 | 12,099 | 12,728 | 2,550 | 5,447 | |||
| GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars) 1/ | 1,023 | 1,399 | 1,368 | 1,481 | 1,204 | 1,270 | … | … | |||
| (Percentage changes in constant prices) | |||||||||||
| Output | |||||||||||
| GDP | -10.4 | 2.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 3.5 | |||
| Of which: | |||||||||||
| Industry | -10.3 | 4.7 | 17.7 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 1.1 | … | |||
| Agriculture | -2.4 | 1.5 | -5.4 | -1.7 | -7.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | … | |||
| Industrial production | -11.7 | 3.5 | 18.8 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 6.1 | |||
| (Percentage changes) | |||||||||||
| Prices and Wages | |||||||||||
| Producer prices (end-of-period; year-on-year) | 122 | 31 | 91 | 200 | 239 | 168 | 119 | 80 | |||
| Consumer prices (end-of-period; year-on-year) | 244 | 39 | 63 | 182 | 251 | 108 | 78 | 65 | |||
| Average wage, excluding kolkhozes | 670 | 60 | 88 | 102 | 321 | 198 | 121 | 120 | |||
| Minimum wage (end-of-period; year-on-year) | 200 | 67 | 100 | 75 | 314 | 148 | 92 | 113 | |||
| (In U.S. dollars) | |||||||||||
| Average wage (end-of-period) 1/ | 88 | 103 | 108 | 83 | 110 | 76 | 81 | 91 | |||
| Minimum wage (end-of-period) 1/ | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |||
| (In percent of GDP) | |||||||||||
| General government finance 2/ | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 40.3 | 40.8 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 45.7 | 43.3 | 48.4 | 47.5 | |||
| Expenditure 3/ | 42.2 | 42.4 | 46.2 | 44.8 | 47.9 | 43.9 | 49.4 | 48.5 | |||
| Balance 3/ | -1.9 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -2.2 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -1.0 | |||
| (Percentage changes from previous period) | |||||||||||
| Money and credit | |||||||||||
| Rubel broad money | 292 | 67 | 103 | 130 | 195 | 124 | 13 | 44 | |||
| Banking system net domestic credit 4/ | 160 | 59 | 116 | 300 | 143 | 182 | 12 | 28 | |||
| Refinance rate (percent per annum, end-of-period) | 66 | 35 | 42 | 48 | 110 | 90 | 70 | 55 | |||
| (In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||||
| Merchandise trade | |||||||||||
| Exports of goods | 4,803 | 5,790 | 7,383 | 7,138 | 5,646 | 6,987 | 1,777 | 3638.5 | |||
| Imports of goods | -5,469 | -6,939 | -8,718 | -8,488 | -6,216 | -7,825 | -1,723 | -3755.2 | |||
| Trade balance | -666 | -1,149 | -1,335 | -1,350 | -570 | -838 | 54 | -117 | |||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | -4.4 | -3.7 | -5.8 | -6.1 | -1.6 | -1.3 | 8.4 | 4.4 | |||
| Exchange rate (in rubels per U.S. dollar; end-of-period) 5/ | 12 | 16 | 31 | 107 | 320 | 1,180 | 1,293 | 1,378 | |||
| (in rubels per U.S. dollar; period average) | 12 | 13 | 26 | 46 | 250 | 717 | 1,230 | 1,287 | |||
| Goss convertible official reserves | 377 | 369 | 394 | 345 | 309 | 357 | 372 | 414 | |||
Measured at the official exchange rate.
Consolidated (cash) position, including local governments, budgetary funds, and the social protection fund.
Includes an adjustment for discrepancy between monetary and fiscal data.
Unadjusted for exchange rate variation.
Data have been revised backward to reflect the redenomination of the rubel on January 1, 2000, which removed three zeros from the currency.
Contents
II. An Assessment of Belarus’s External Competitiveness
A. Introduction
B. Recent Balance of Payments Developments
C. Competitiveness Indicators
External real exchange rates
Internal real exchange rates
Labor costs
D. Export Performance by Sector
E. Summary and Conclusion
Text Tables
1. Balance of Payments, 1993-2001
2. Main Competitors
3. Internal Real Exchange Rate
4. Average Monthly Wage, 1993-2000
5. Unit Labor Cost, 1993-2000
6. Exports by Sector, 1997-2000
7. Exports by Type of Product, 2000-01
Text Figures
1. Real Exchange Rate Developments, January 1997-September 2001
2. Official Exchange Rate in Real Effective Terms, November 1993-June 2001
3. Real Effective Exchange Rate against Western Trading Partners, January 1994-June 2001
4. Different Exchange Rates in Real Effective Terms using the GDP Deflator, 1993-2000
5. Internal Real Exchange Rate using Manufacturing versus Agriculture Prices, 1993-2001
6. Internal Real Exchange Rate using World Market Producer Prices, 1995-2001
7. Average Productivity, 1993-2000
References
III. Wage Policy
A. Introduction
B. Wage Policy and Recent Wage Developments
Wage policy
Macroeconomic effects of recent wage increases
C. Wage Indexation
D. Concluding Remarks
Text Tables
1. Wages, Prices, and Output, 1997-2001
2. Minimum Wage and First-Grade Wage (monthly), 2000-2001
Text Figures
1. The Growth of Real Wages, Labor Productivity, and GDP, 1996-2001
2. Real Average Monthly Wage, 1996-2001
3. The Structure of Fringe Benefits, March 2001
4. Wage Bill, Non-Wage Expenditures, and Fiscal Deficit, 1999-2001
5. Wage Bill in Belarus and Selected CIS Countries, 2001
References
IV. Subsidies—An Overview
A. Background
B. Budgetary Subsidies
C. Implicit Import Subsidies
D. Consumer Subsidies
E. Producer Subsidies
Text Tables
1. Explicit and Implicit Subsidies, 1997-2000
2. The Price of Russian Gas Paid by Some Importing Baltic and CIS Countries
3. Cost Recovery for Households, 1995-2001
4. Rent and Communal Services Subsidy (by region), 1997-June 2001
Text Figures
1. Main Subsidies
2. Largest Sector Recipients of Direct Republican Budget Subsidies, 2000
3. Changes in the CPI and in Utility Tariffs
4. Changes in the CPI, and in Communication and Transportation Services Tariffs
5. Cross-Subsidies on Gas, Electricity and Heating, 1999-2001
References
V. Belarus-Russia Monetary Union
A. Background
B. Economic Costs and Benefits of the Union for Belarus
Impact on trade and income
Asymmetric shocks and flexibility of labor markets
Seigniorage
Monetary policy implementation
Financial intermediation and financial market integration
C. Credibility Problems During the Transition
D. The Question of the Anchor
E. Summary
Text Tables
1. Chronology of Monetary and Economic Integration Process
Text Figures
1. Real Effective Exchange Rate and Oil Prices
2a. GDP Growth and Unemployment, 1993-2000
2b. GDP Growth and Unemployment, 1993-2000
References
Appendices
I. Status of the Tax System
II. Statistical Appendix Tables
1. Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1997-2001 (Q2)
2. Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1997-2001 (Q2)
3. Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1997-2001(Q2)
4. Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1995-2001 (Q2)
5. Capital Investment by Sector, 1995-2000
6. Industrial Production, 1996-2001 (Q2)
7. Inventories of Final Products in the Warehouses of Industrial Enterprises by Subsector, 1996-2001 (Q2)
8. Agricultural Production, 1995-2001 (Q2)
9. Production and Consumption of Energy, 1995-2001 (Q2)
10. Change in Consumer and Producer Prices, 1997-2001 (November)
11. Changes in Administered Prices of Household Services, 2000-01 (June)
12. Tariffs and Cost Coverage for Households, 1999-2001 (July)
13. Average Monthly Wages, 1996-2001 (Q2)
14. Price and Wage Developments, 1996-2001 (Q3)
15. Money Income and Expenditures of the Population, 1996-2001 (Q2)
16. Labor Market Indicators, 1996-2001 (Q2)
17. Average Monthly Employment by Sector, 1997-2001 (Q2)
18. Enterprise Profits and Losses, 1996-2001 (Q2)
19. Interenterprise Arrears and the Barter Economy, 1998-2001 (Q2)
20. Sectoral Distribution of Energy Debts of Enterprises, 1998-2001 (Q2)
21. General Government Operations, 1996-2001 (Q3)
22. General Government Operations, 1996-2001 (Q3)
23. Tax Arrears, 1995-2001 (Q2)
24. General Government Debt, 1997-2001 (Q2)
25. Monetary Survey, 1999-2001 (June)
26. Accounts of the National Bank of Belarus, 1999-2001 (June)
27. Deposit Money Banks’ Accounts, 1999-2001 (June)
28. National Bank’s Directed Credits, 1999-2001 (Q2)
29. Composition of Bank Lending by Type of Credit and Sector, 1997-2001 (Q2)
30. Auction of Securities Issued by the Ministry of Finance, 1999-2000
31. Minimum Reserve Requirements, 1996-2000 (November)
32. Interest Rates of the National Bank of Belarus, 2000-01 (July)
33. Interest Rates on Bank Deposits, 2000-01 (June)
34. Interest Rates on Bank Credit, 2000-01 (June)
35. Interest Rates on New Foreign Exchange Deposits and Credits, 2000-01 (June)
36. Structural Characteristics of the Banking Sector, 1998-2001 (June)
37. Commercial Banks, Selected Indicators, 1997-2001 (June)
38. Six Largest Commercial Banks, Selected Indicators, 1997-2001 (June)
39. Commercial Banks and Branches of Foreign Banks
40. Official Exchange Rates, 1997-2001 (Q2)
41. Direction of Trade: Exports and Imports, 1995-2001 (Q2)
42. External Trade in Goods by Economic Branches, 1997-2000
43. Balance of Payments, 1997-2001 (Jan-Jun)
44. Selected International Liabilities, 1997-2001 (June)
45. Disbusrsement and Payments on Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly-Guaranteed Debt, 1997-2001
45. Gas Supply and Arrears, 1997-2001 (June)
47. Transformation of Property, 1996-2001 (Q2)
48. Housing Privatization, 1997-2001 (Q1)