Republic of Lithuania: Staff Report for the 2001 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

This paper examines the Republic of Lithuania’s 2001 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement. The macroeconomic objectives for 2001 are expected to be largely attained and all end-September performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met. The authorities’ priority is to stabilize revenue while creating a tax system consistent with European Union (EU) requirements. Underpinned by the fiscal adjustment, the currency board arrangement continued to anchor macroeconomic policies. The authorities remain committed to their ambitious structural reform agenda, which is driven in part by requirements of EU accession.

Abstract

This paper examines the Republic of Lithuania’s 2001 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement. The macroeconomic objectives for 2001 are expected to be largely attained and all end-September performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met. The authorities’ priority is to stabilize revenue while creating a tax system consistent with European Union (EU) requirements. Underpinned by the fiscal adjustment, the currency board arrangement continued to anchor macroeconomic policies. The authorities remain committed to their ambitious structural reform agenda, which is driven in part by requirements of EU accession.

Lithuania: Basic Data

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Sources: Lithuanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Average wage deflated by consumer price index.

Calculated on the basis of registered unemployment; period average.

Balance of payments prior to 1996 are not comparable data.

Average annual interest rate on loans in domestic currency; end of year.

There is a break in series beginning in 1998 when a new classification of fiscal account was implemented.

Including the discrepancy between monetary and fiscal data.

I. Introduction

1. The 2000 Article IV Consultation was concluded by the Executive Board on January 10, 2001 (EBS/00/286). Directors commended the progress made by Lithuania under the previous SBA. They emphasized the importance of preserving macroeconomic stability to maintain the credibility of the currency board arrangement (CBA), especially in the run-up to the repegging of the litas. Directors, however, expressed concern about the high level of unemployment and weak finances of municipalities. While recognizing that structural reforms had advanced significantly, they stressed the need for greater progress in the restructuring of the energy and agricultural sectors.

2. The political situation in Lithuania remains stable, under the dominant center-left coalition led by Prime Minister Brazauskas, the country’s President during 1993–98. The continuing strong consensus on EU and NATO accession has played a major role in advancing reforms.

II. Recent Developments and Performance Under the Program

3. Macroeconomic objectives for 2001 are expected to be largely attained and all end-September program performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met (Tables 112). Real GDP growth accelerated substantially, the external current account deficit declined further, and inflation remained subdued. Fiscal adjustment continued, confidence in the currency board remained strong, and good progress was recorded in structural areas.

Table 1.

Lithuania: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 1998–2002

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Sources: Lanuanan authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Registered unemployment, end-of-period.

Gross official reserves reported here differ from the monetary survey because they include reverse repos involving major currencies in both legs.

External liabilities minus foreign equity investment in Lithuania.

CPI-based, trade-weighted real effective exchange rate against 21 major trading partners in 1999.

December 2000 is adjusted for reclassification of LTL 270 million of DMB’s claims on privates sector which were removed from balance sheets in July 2000. Also, August 2001 number have been adjusted by LTL 785 million of reclassified assets.

Table 2:

Lithuania: Balance of Payments, 2000–2006

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Source: Data provided by the Lithiuanian authorities; and staff estimates and projection

Gross official reserves reported here differ from the monetary survey because revenue repos involving major currencies in both legs are included.

External liabilities minus foreign equity investment

Total external liabilities minus total external assets excluding foreign direct investment, equity investment and reserve assets.

Total short term liabilities minus total short term assets original maturity basis.

Debt service comprises increases and repayment on external loans and interest and repayment on debt securities A large debt service ratio for Q1 2001 and 2001 reflects a repayment of large liabilities by commercial banks undertaken ahead of schedule in Q1 2001.

Table 3.

Lithuania: Summary of Consolidated General Government Operations, 1998–2002

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Sources: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Social Security; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

From 2000 onward, 5 new extra-budgetary funds, which had not been reported before, were added.

Fees paid to educational establishments and their spending (LTL 128 million) were added to general government operations from 2001 onward.

Fees paid by trucks crossing the borders of the country were added from 2002 onward. In addition, following the new organic budget law, revenue of state institutions for provided services was included in municipal budget from 2002 onward.

Table 4.

Lithuania. Summary Monetary Accounts, 1998–2002

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Sources: Bank of Lithuania: and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Excludes local government deposits; includes counterpart funds.

Projections for 2001 onwards include Treasury accounts, which were moved from commercial banks to the BoL at end-June, 2001.

December 2000 is adjusted for LTL 270 million of DMB’s claims on private sector, which were removed from balance sheers in July, 2000. Also, August 2001 numbers have been adjusted by LTL 785 million of reclassified assets.

Only annual average velocity is reported at year-end.

Gross official reserves for historic data differ from the BOP table because exposure under reverse repo liabilities were deducted from foreign assets, and differences in valuation. For projections, assumption is that all reverse repo liabilities are unwound.