Front Matter Page

© 2001 International Monetary Fund

July 2001

IMF Country Report No. 01/118

Albania: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix on Albania was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 29, 2001. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessary reflect the views of the government of Albania or the Executive Board of the IMF.

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

ALBANIA

Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Prepared by Hongsung Moon, Volker Treichel, Jan Kees Martijn (all EU1), Karen Ongley (PDR) and Eva Jenkner (FAD)

Approved by the European I Department

June 29, 2001

Contents

• I. Medium-Term Debt Sustainability

  • A. Introduction

  • B. The Current Debt Situation

  • C. Base Scenario

  • D. Alternative Scenarios

  • E. Concluding Remarks

• Figure

  • I.1 Debt Dynamics, 2000-2010

• Text Tables

• I.1 Base Scenario: Debt Sustainability, 2000-10

• I.2 Scenario 1: Higher Domestic Interest Rates, 2000-10

• I.3 Scenario 2: Higher Foreign Interest Rates, 2000-10

• I.4 Scenario 3: A Lower Real GDP Growth, 2000-10

• I.5 Scenario 4: An Exchange Rate Depreciation, 2000-10

• II. Financial Sustainability and Reform Options for the Albanian Pension Fund

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Key Features of the Albanian Pension Scheme

  • C. Financial Sustainability under Various Scenarios

    • Policy Scenario I—Increasing the Contribution Ceiling

    • Policy Scenario II—Increasing the Contribution Ceiling and Maximum Benefits

    • Policy Scenario III—Increasing the Contribution Ceiling and Reducing Contribution Rates

    • Policy Scenario IV—Increasing the Contribution Ceiling, Reducing Contribution Rates and Increasing the Retirement Age

  • D. Conclusions and Key Recommendations for Administrative Reforms

• Text Tables

• II.1 Financial Sustainability of the Albanian Pension Fund, 2000-48

• Statistical Appendix Tables

• 1. Basic Indicators, 1992-2000

• 2. GDP by Sector of Origin, 1992-2000

• 3. Registered Private Enterprises by Activity and Date of First Registration, 1992-2000

• 4. Production of Selected Industrial Products in the State Sector, 1992-2000

• 5. Quarterly Changes of Construction Cost Index, 1993-2000

• 6. Consumer Price Subsidies, 1992-2000

• 7. Agricultural Production, 1992-2000

• 8. Area Under Cultivation, Production, and Yields of Selected Agricultural Crops, 1992-2000

• 9. Production and Yields of Selected Fruits, 1992-2000

• 10. Production and Yields of Selected Livestock, 1992-2000

• 11. Consumer Price Index, 1992-2000

• 12. Population, Labor Force, and Employment, 1990-2000

• 13. Employment and Wages in Budgetary Institutions, 1992-2000

• 14. Fiscal Accounts, 1993-2000

• 15. Central Government Expenditure Shares, 1993-2000

• 16. Tax Revenue Shares, 1993-2000

• 17. Exchange Rate, 1992-2000

• 18. Deposit Interest Rate Structure, 1996-2000

• 19. Monetary Survey, 1993-2000

• 20. Balance Sheet of the Bank of Albania, 1993-2000

• 21. Net Foreign Asset Position of the Bank of Albania, 1993-2000

• 22. Structure of Bank Deposits by Currency and Depositor, 1993-2000

• 23. Distribution of Deposits in State-Owned Commercial Banks, 1993-2000

• 24. Credit Provided by State-Owned Banks, 1993-2000

• 25. Nonperforming Credits of State-Owned Banks, 1993-2000

• 26. Balance of Payments, 1994-2000

• 27. Commodity Composition of Exports, SITC Classification, 1994-2000

• 28. Commodity Composition of Imports, SITC Classification, 1994-2000

• 29. Direction of Trade, Exports (f.o.b.), 1994-2000

• 30. Direction of Trade, Imports (f.o.b), 1994-2000

• 31. External Debt in Convertible and Nonconvertible Currencies, 1994-2000

• Attachment

• 1. Summary of the Tax System at End-March 2001