Front Matter Page
© 2000 International Monetary Fund
November 2000
IMF Staff Country Report No. 00/153
Republic of Belarus: Recent Economic Developments and Selected Issues
This Recent Economic Developments and Selected Issues report on Republic of Belarus was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. As such, the views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Republic of Belarus or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Front Matter Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
Recent Economic Developments and Selected Issues
Prepared by Messrs. Schipke, Mumssen, Zeuner, Horton, Ms. Fisher (all EU2); and Mr. Taylor (MAE)
Approved by the European II Department
September 28, 2000
Contents
Basic Data Table
I. Overview
II. Recent Economic Developments
A. Real Sector
Developments in 1999
Developments in 2000
B. Public Finances
Developments in 1999
Developments in 2000
C. Monetary Sector
Developments in 1999
Developments in 2000
D. External Sector
Developments in 1999
Developments in 2000
Exchange rate developments
E. Structural Policies
III. An Assessment of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities
A. Background
B. Assessment of Vulnerabilities
C. Regulatory Environment and Banking Supervision
IV. Dollarization of the Belarusian Economy
V. Belarus-Russia Union
A. Background
B. Interstate Agreements and Institutions
Economic integration
Customs harmonization
Tax harmonization
Monetary union
C. Outlook
VI. Business Environment
A. Introduction
B. Barriers to Private Sector Growth
Price and wage controls
Controls on foreign trade and exchange
Administrative controls
State intervention and legal environment
C. Privatization and Foreign Investment
VII. Social Safety Net
A. The Current System
B. The Reform Agenda
VIII. Agricultural reform
A. Background
B. Land Reform and the Development of Private Farming
C. Conclusion
Appendix I. Exchange System
Text Boxes
1. The Budget Sector Wage Grid and Wage Indexation in Belarus
2. Deposit Insurance
Text Figures
II.1. Composition of GDP, 1999
II.2. Inflation and Wages in Selected CIS Countries, January 1995-June 2000
II.3. Fiscal Operations, 1998–2000
II.4. Interest Rates, January 1996-June 2000
II.5. Real Exchange Rates
II.6. Share of CIS Countries and Russia in Total Trade, 1993–99
IV. 1. Ruble Broad Money
IV.2. Interest Rate on Foreign Currency Deposits, 1996–2000
IV.3. Real Domestic Currency Deposit Rate, 1996–2000
IV.4. Foreign Exchange Deposits at Commercial Banks
IV.5. Foreign Exchange Deposits and Inflation
IV.6. Minimum Reserve Requirements
Text Tables
1. Banks’ Assets, May 2000
2. Commercial Bank Loans by Economic Sector, 1995–99
Appendix Tables
1. Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1995–99
2. Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1995–99
3. Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1995–99
4. Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1995–99
5. Capital Investment by Sector in Comparable Prices, 1995–99
6. Industrial Production, 1996–2000
7. Inventories of Final Products in the Warehouses of Industrial Enterprises by Subsector, 1996–2000
8. Agricultural Production, 1995–99
9. Production and Consumption of Energy, 1995–99
10. Change in Consumer and Producer Prices 1996–2000
11. Changes in Administered Prices of Household Services, 1999–2000
12. Tariffs and Cost Coverage for Households, 1998–2000
13. Average Monthly Wages 1995–99
14. Price and Wage Developments, 1996–2000
15. Money Income and Expenditures of the Population, 1996–2000
16. Labor Market Indicators, 1996–2000
17. Average Monthly Employment by Sector, 1996–2000
18. Enterprise Profits and Losses, 1996–2000
19. Interenterprise Arrears and the Barter Economy, 1996–2000
20. Sectoral Distribution of Energy Debts of Enterprises, 1997–1999
21. General Government Operations, 1996–2000 (in millions of rubels)
22. General Government Operations, 1996–2000 (in percent of GDP)
23. Tax Arrears, 1995–99
24. General Government Debt, 1996–2000
25. Monetary Survey, 1998–2000
26. Accounts of the National Bank of Belarus, 1998–2000
27. Deposit Money Banks’ Accounts, 1998–2000
28. National Bank’s Directed Credits, 1997–2000
29. Composition of Bank Lending by Type of Credit and Sector, 1996–2000
30. Auction of Securities issued by the Ministry of Finance, 1999–2000
31. Minimum Reserve Requirements, 1995–2000
32. Interest Rates of the National Bank of Belarus, 1999–2000
33. Interest Rates on Bank Deposits, 1999–2000
34. Interest Rates on Bank Credit, 1999–2000
35. Interest Rates on New Foreign Exchange Credits and Deposits, 1999–2000
36. Structural Characteristics of the Banking Sector, 1997–2000
37. Commercial Banks, Selected Indicators, 1996–2000
38. Six Largest Commercial Banks, Selected Indicators, 1996–2000
39. Commercial Banks and Branches of Foreign Banks
40. Official Exchange Rates, 1996–2000
41. Direction of Trade: Exports and Imports, 1995–99
42. External Trade in Goods by Economic Branches, 1996–99
43. Balance of Payments, 1996–2000
44. Selected International Liabilities, 1996–2000
45. Disbursements and Payments on Medium-and Long-term Public and Publicly-guaranteed Debt, 1997–2001
46. Gas Supply and Arrears, 1997–2000
47. Transformation of Property, 1996–2000
48. Housing Privatization, 1996–2000