Front Matter

Front Matter Page

©2000 International Monetary Fund

October 2000

IMF Staff Country Report No. 00/131

Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix report on Kyrgyz Republic was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. As such, the views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Kyrgyz Republic or the Executive Board of the IMF.

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Prepared by a staff team consisting of Harry Trines (head), Robert York, Julie Kozack, Iqbal Zaidi, Sepideh Khazai (all EU2), Tetsuya Konuki, and Christian Keller (both FAD)

Approved by European II Department

August 30, 2000

Contents

  • I. Introduction

  • II. Recent Economic Developments

    • A. Moderate but Unbalanced Economic Growth

    • B. A Rise in Inflation

    • C. Wage Developments and the Labor Market

    • D. External Sector Developments

    • E. Macroeconomic Policies

      • Fiscal policy

      • Monetary and exchange rate policies

    • F. Structural Reforms

  • III. Potential Output Growth Over the Long Term

    • A. Methodological and Data Issues

    • B. Estimates of Potential Output

    • C. Impediments to Higher Potential Growth Over the Long Term

  • IV. International Competitiveness

    • A. Estimates of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

    • B. Relative Unit Labor Costs

    • C. Conclusions

  • V. Trade Policy

    • A. Trade Liberalization in the Kyrgyz Republic

      • Tariff and non-tariff barriers

      • Trade agreements

    • B. Accession to the WTO

      • The process

      • Concessions

      • Market access

    • C. Benefits of WTO Membership

      • Dispute settlement

      • Development of a market-based economy

      • Accession of major trading partners

    • D. Ongoing Issues

    • E. Conclusion

  • VI. The Challenge of Poverty Alleviation

    • A. Poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic

    • B. Current Measures to Alleviate Poverty

    • C. Future Policy Challenges

  • VII. Pension Reform

    • A. Elements of the Previous Pension System

    • B. The Reform Program

      • Designing the pension reform

      • Details of the reform program

      • The impact of reform

      • Broad issues

    • C. Conclusions

  • VIII. Banking System in Turmoil

    • A. Developments Prior to the 1998/99 Banking Crisis

    • B. Major Factors Behind the Crisis

    • C. The Policy Response

    • D. Future Challenges

  • IX. Fiscal Policy Issues

    • A. Expenditure and Revenue Developments

    • B. Fiscal Transparency

  • Text Boxes

  • 1. Enterprise Arrears

  • 2. The Kumtor Gold Mining Project

  • 3. Dollar Wages in the BRO

  • 4. The Banking System: Crisis or No Crisis?

  • 5. Social Assistance Programs in the Kyrgyz Republic

  • Text Tables

  • 1. Estimates of Labor, Capital Stock, and Output, 1970–97

  • 2. Estimates of Potential Output Using Cross-Country Approach, 1991–99

  • 3. Estimates of Potential Output Using Production Function Approach, 1970–99

  • 4. Real Effective Exchange Rates, 1995–2000

  • 5. CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate and Key Bilateral Real Exchange Rates, 1995–2000

  • 6. PPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate and Key Bilateral Real Exchange Rates, 1995–2000

  • 7. Relative Unit Labor Costs, 1995–99

  • 8. Trade Restrictiveness in BRO Countries, 1999

  • 9. Trade by Major Trading Partner

  • 10. Exports by Major Trading Partner

  • 11. Dynamics of Main Poverty Indices, 1996–98

  • 12. Urban and Rural Poverty, 1996–98

  • 13. Poverty by Region, 1996–98

  • 14. Household Composition and Dependency, 1998

  • 15. Education and Poverty Status, 1998

  • 16. Poverty and the Labor Market

  • 17. Support Ratios, 1996

  • 18. Pension Indicators for Selected BRO Countries, 1997–99

  • 19. K-Coefficient for Pension Calculations

  • 20. Summary of Social Fund Budget, 1994–2000

  • 21. Income Indicators, 1999

  • 22. Pension Categories, 1999

  • 23. Indicators of the Banking System’s Financial Strength

  • 24. Developments in the Banking Sector, 1999–2000

  • 25. External Debt Service, 2000–2010

  • Figures

  • 1. Real Effective Exchange Rate, January 1995–March 2000

  • 2. Real Effective Exchange Rate, 1995–2000

  • 3. CPI-Based Real Exchange Rate Index, January 1995–March 2000

  • 4. PPI-Based Real Exchange Rate Index, January 1995–March 2000

  • 5. Indicators of Financial Intermediation I, 1995–99

  • 6. Indicators of Financial Intermediation II, 1995–99

  • 7. Credit and Deposit Growth, 1995–99

  • Appendix

  • 1. Summary of the Tax Structure

  • Statistical Appendix Tables

  • 26. Progress in Transition, 1995–99

  • 27. Value Added in the Main Production Sectors, 1995–2000

  • 28. Industrial Production by Sector, 1995–2000

  • 29. Output of Selected Industrial and Manufacturing Products, 1995–2000

  • 30. Agricultural Production, 1995–1999

  • 31. Agricultural and Animal Production by Farm Type, 1995–99

  • 32. Yields of Major Commodities, 1995–99

  • 33. Consumer and Producer Prices, 1995–2000

  • 34. Energy Prices, 1995–2000

  • 35. Nominal and Real Wages, 1995–2000

  • 36. Average Wages by Economic Sector, 1995–2000

  • 37. Labor Market, 1995–2000

  • 38. Employment by Sector, 1995–99

  • 39. Balance of Payments, 1995–2000

  • 40. Exports of Goods by Sector, 1995–2000

  • 41. Imports of Goods by Sector, 1995–2000

  • 42. Exports of Goods to CIS and Non-CIS Countries, 1995–2000

  • 43. Imports of Goods from CIS and Non-CIS Countries, 1995–2000

  • 44. Direction of Trade, 1995–2000

  • 45. Production, Imports and Exports of Energy Products, 1995–2000

  • 46. Net Foreign Direct Investment by Country of Origin, 1995–99

  • 47. External Public Debt and Debt Service, 1995–2000

  • 48. Summary of State Government Operations, 1995–2000

  • 49. State Government Revenues, 1995–2000

  • 50. Government Expenditure by Functional Classification, 1995–2000

  • 51. Social Fund Financial Accounts, 1995–2000

  • 52. Budgetary Expenditure Arrears, 1995–2000

  • 53. Tax Arrears, 1995–2000

  • 54. National Bank of Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) Accounts, 1995–2000

  • 55. Monetary Survey, 1995–2000

  • 56. Key Central Bank Interest Rates, 1996–2000

  • 57. Interest Rates Developments, 1996–2000

  • 58. Development of Foreign Exchange Auctions and Interbank Market, 1996–2000

  • 59. Stock of Outstanding Government Securities, 1996–2000

  • 60. Composition of Credits and Deposits to the Economy by Sector, Maturity, Currency, and Bank, 1996–2000

  • 61. Privatization by Sector and Type of Property, 1995–2000

Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Author: International Monetary Fund