List of References
Adams, Charles, and David Coe, 1990, “A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output in the United States,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 37, pp. 232–293, June.
DeMasi, P. R, J. Chan-Lau, and A. Keenan, 1999, “Measures of Potential Output, NAIRU, and Capacity Utilization,” in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report No. 99/101, September 1999.
Hodrick, Robert J. and Edward C. Prescott, 1997, “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 29, pp.1–16.
Seskin, Eugene, 1999, “Improved Estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts for 1959-98: Results of the Comprehensive Revision, Survey of Current Business, December, pp.15–43.
Prepared by Paula R. De Masi and Martin Kaufman.
The revised data incorporate new source data which include the 1992 benchmark input-output accounts; recent Bureau of the Census data on wholesale and retail trade, construction, state and local governments; updated international transactions data; and wage and salary data. With regard to adjusting for inflation, newly available CPI data are used to revise historical personal consumption expenditures. The most significant definitional change was that business purchases of software were reclassified as private fixed investment, rather than treated as intermediate inputs. Seskin (1999) presents a detailed discussion of these changes.
In theory, gross domestic product based on expenditure data should be equal to the measure of gross domestic product based on income data. The difference between the two is referred to as the statistical discrepancy in the NIPA In the past, this statistical discrepancy has not been large. Since 1992, however, the discrepancy has widened, with the income measure growing significantly faster than the expenditure measure of GDP. The expenditure measure remains the “official” measure of U.S. GDP, which is why it is used in the analysis presented here.
The estimation periods for these log-linear regressions were specified from cyclical peak to cyclical peak in an attempt to eliminate the distorting effects associated with end-points that are at different points in the business cycle.
The capital and labor shares are based on their shares in national income and are 30 and 70 percent, respectively.