Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands Antilles: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
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This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix explores four policy issues—fiscal policy, public sector pension reforms, monetary management, and labor market performance—which are crucial for understanding the recent performance of the economy of the Netherlands Antilles and which will need to be addressed to restore the prospect of durable economic growth. The paper reviews experience with fiscal adjustment in the Netherlands Antilles, focusing in particular on the 1996–97 adjustment program. The paper also analyzes the sustainability of the public pension system of the country.

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix explores four policy issues—fiscal policy, public sector pension reforms, monetary management, and labor market performance—which are crucial for understanding the recent performance of the economy of the Netherlands Antilles and which will need to be addressed to restore the prospect of durable economic growth. The paper reviews experience with fiscal adjustment in the Netherlands Antilles, focusing in particular on the 1996–97 adjustment program. The paper also analyzes the sustainability of the public pension system of the country.

V. labor market performance26

96. Labor market flexibility is essential to generate sufficient employment in the Antillean economy, given its narrow domestic resource base and limited diversification, which makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks. Flexibility is all the more important since the exchange rate has been pegged to the U.S. dollar to provide nominal A05app01tab0ility, and therefore, cannot be used to absorb part of these shocks. As most small island economies, the Netherlands Antilles is heavily dependent for its economic development on a few key export sectors—oil refining, offshore finance, tourism, ship repair, and transshipment. Moreover, the country consist of five separate islands, each with their own labor market dynamics, and separated into two geographically distant groups. The limited size of the domestic market and the tendency for skilled workers to become specialized pose additional challenges for adjustment to shocks.

97. The Antillean labor market has been strongly influenced by the link with the Netherlands, but it has some distinctive features as well. Indivisibilities in investment and limited domestic resources have made the economy dependent on foreign project aid, mostly provided by the Netherlands, especially for infrastructure development and education. Labor relations have been guided by the Dutch consensus model and Dutch labor market institutions have been copied to a large extent in the Netherlands Antilles. Citizens of the Netherlands Antilles are also citizens of the Kingdom, of the Netherlands and have the right to work or live in the Netherlands. However, there are also some distinctive features of the Antillean labor market: there are no unemployment benefits; the social safety net is very limited; and the public sector and migration play a key role.

98. The trend improvement in labor market performance stalled in the mid 1990s, when the unemployment rate began to rise again. In 1998, following two years of falling employment, an estimated 15.9 percent of the labor force of the Netherlands Antilles was unemployed, up from a historic low of 12.8 percent in 1995. Curaçao’s performance is even worse, with 16.7 percent unemployed. It should be noted, though, that estimates of unemployment are biased upward, since annual surveys take place in October, a month when tourism is seasonally low and when school leavers enter the jobmarket.

99. While the rise in unemployment since 1995 is associated with a weakening of economic activity, the latter is in turn a sign of a lack of labor market flexibility to respond to adverse shocks, which also underlies the high level of structural unemployment. These developments and main features of the Antillean labor market are described below, followed by a stylized quantitative assessment of labor market performance, an overview of the main institutional features that affect the functioning of the labor market, and some concluding remarks.

A. Employment, Unemployment, and Wages

100. Following a decade of very strong growth, related to the boom in tourism, employment creation slowed considerably during the 1990s and has been negative since 1997, shortly after the economy went into a recession (Table 5). These developments were reflected in the unemployment rate, which dropped considerably through the first half of the 1990s, but rose again from 1995 onward, ahead of the decline in employment, and reflecting underlying growth of the labor force. The mild recovery of the economy in 1998 has not been able to reverse these trends, which have also been accompanied by a rise in emigration.

Table 5.

Netherlands Antilles: Employment, Unemployment, and Migration, 1990–98

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Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics; Bank van de Nederlandse Antillen; and Fund staff estimates.

Net, to the Netherlands, minus=outflow.

101. Aggregate unemployment dynamics mask significant differences among islands. Given its large weight, Curaçao’s experience dominates the aggregate observations. This island has been affected relatively more by the weakening of economic activity, which contributed to a large increase in unemployment, to 16.7 percent of the labor force in 1998, despite a decline in the labor force by 4.9 percent during 1997–98. Migration outflows also rose sharply, continuing a historical trend, in contrast with the other islands, for which migration has been less unidirectional. Bonaire, which is experiencing an economic boom, owing to a sharp increase in diving tourism, has a relatively tight labor market, with an unemployment rate below 6 percent. Specific skill requirements have led to the importation of specialized foreign workers.27 Sint Maarten has been strongly affected by the 1995 hurricane, and following the main reconstruction in 1996, has seen only a slow recovery in economic activity. As a result, it had the highest unemployment rate among the islands in 1997, at 17.2 percent, and employment is reported to have stagnated in 1998. The other two, very small, islands are insignificant for the overall economy, as their labor force represents only about 2 percent of the total.

102. Following a significant increase during the first half of the 1990s, labor force participation rates have A05app01tab0ilized at a relatively low level in Curaçao, but at very high levels in Bonaire and Sint Maarten. Participation rates for the age group 15-64 years are 66.9 percent, 83.4 percent, and 84.7 percent, respectively, for these three islands. These rates are higher than in the Netherlands (64.4 percent), but the rate in Curaçao is lower than the average for the OECD (68.8 percent) and a group of Caribbean economies (67.7 percent),28 The evolution of the labor force is also determined by underlying population growth of about 1.3 percent per year during the past decade and migration. The latter is strongly influenced by the economic cycle, but there appears to be an underlying trend of net outward migration of persons of working age.

103. While there are noteworthy exceptions, a working labor force participant is typically employed under a full-time labor contract and has less than high school education. On average, the incidence of part-time work, temporary employment, and self-employment is relatively small, all less than 10 percent (Table 6). On the smaller islands, though, all of these forms of employment are much more prevalent than the average. A relatively large number of people, 22 percent, report to be working over 43 hours per week. This appears to be mainly related to the tourism industry, as suggested by the fact that in Sint Maarten, which is almost exclusively tourism based, more than one third of the employed are in this position. Even though low-skilled labor is dominant, a sizable share of the working population has finished high school or equivalent education (23 percent), and 13 percent report to have higher education.

104. Being young, low-skilled, or female is associated with a significantly higher probability of being unemployed. Over 30 percent of people aged 15-14 and looking for work are unemployed, with this ratio as high as 35.5 percent for the island of Curaçao (Table 7). The chance of being unemployed for labor force participants who did not complete high school education is 35 percent higher than for those with high school or higher education. About 19 percent of female labor force participants are looking for work, compared to 13 percent of males.

Table 6.

Netherlands Antilles: Selected Structural Indicators of Employment, 1997

(Percent of total)

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.

Less than 25 hours per week.

Table 7.

Netherlands Antilles: Unemployment and Vacancies

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Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.

Less than high school.

More than 12 months, as percent of total.

105. Employers report having difficulties filling vacancies, mainly owing to inadequate skill supply. The vacancy rate declined between 1995 and 1998 for all islands, except Sint Maarten, but—at 2.5 percent of the labor force—remains relatively high. Demand for low-skilled workers is very low, however, and vocational skills appear to be in short supply. Consequently, survey respondents indicate that as much as 43 percent and 47 percent of vacancies are difficult to fill, for Curaçao and Sint Maarten, respectively.

106. In tandem with the worsening of the labor market performance during the second half of the 1990s, wages increased and real value added per worker stagnated. Compensation per employee jumped by more than 20 percent in public enterprises in 1995, following labor strife, and has continued to drift upward since then (Table 8). Similar developments occurred for civil servants, following wage restraint through 1995, owing to the granting of backpay, increased use of overtime, and wage drift related to a job-regrading exercise. Wages in the key tourism sector increased by less, but nonetheless, posted strong increases in 1997–98. The link with the Dutch labor market appears to be borne out by the similarity of wage developments in the two markets over the period 1993–98, even though this parallel could be merely coincidental, given the short observation period.

Table 8.

Netherlands Antilles, Curaçao: Compensation per Employee and Productivity 1993–98

(Index 1993=100)

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Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics; and staff estimates.

B, Economic Growth and the Labor Market

107. One way of assessing the performance of the labor market is to evaluate the responsiveness of employment and unemployment to economic growth. The prior belief is that labor market rigidities weaken the relationships between growth and employment. Firms’ hiring and employment decisions are adversely affected by the costs of dealing with such rigidities. In addition, the fixed exchange rate regime and the undiversified nature of the Netherlands Antilles economy, places the burden of adjustment to real shocks onto the labor market. A high incidence of real shocks could cause a high level of unemployment. By and large both these sets of factors appear to be important in explaining labor market performance.

108. The Antillean economy has been subject to several severe shocks during the 1990s, most of which were unfavorable. The decline in activity in the offshore financial sector, which had begun in the mid-1980s, continued throughout the 1990s, as indicated by the fall in offshore profit tax revenues from 7.2 percent of GDP in 1990 to 2.7 percent of GDP in 1998. Since this sector is not very labor intensive and extensively staffed with expatriates, this development has had mostly an indirect impact on employment, through the need to shift taxation to the domestic economy and cut fiscal expenditure. For the latter, a program to reduce staffing in the civil service has been initiated, but is still far from complete. International competitive pressures forced the oil refinery to reduce its staff from about 1,740 workers in 1992, to 1,220 workers in 1998, a trend which is expected to continue. In late 1995, a hurricane devastated much of the infrastructure of Sint Maarten, leading to a drop in tourism by more than 20 percent, from which the island still has to recover fully. The positive trend in cruise tourism has been partially offsetting these developments and is likely to continue with the impending completion of the mega-pier in Curaçao.

109. An inadequate policy response to adverse shocks triggered a decline in confidence, investment, and economic activity, which was closely reflected in developments in employment (Figure 3). The 1995 hurricane and the subsequent reconstruction effort of 1996 temporarily disrupted a generally close relationship between economic growth and employment creation during the 1990s. Sharply higher employment in 1996 resulted from the shift in activity to the labor-intensive construction sector and related industries. Smoothing employment during 1995-96 and regressing its change (e) on lagged real GDP growth (g) for the period 1991–98 yields a statistically significant relationship (t-statistics in parenthesis):

FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3

Netherlands Antilles: Real GDP and Employment

(Change in percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1999, 065; 10.5089/9781451800982.002.A005

e t = 0.91 ( 0.90 ) + 0.78 g t 1 ( 2.32 ) ( 1 )

The estimated coefficient of 0.78 implies that employment does not respond fully proportionally to economic activity. Given the short sample period over which the estimation took place, this could well reflect some labor hoarding by firms, which do not expand or contract their labor force in proportion to changes in their production. This observation may also be justified by the labor saving that took place during this period in response to higher real wages (and an appreciation of the real exchange rate), driven by wage increases in the public sector.

110. The link between unemployment and economic growth appears to be weaker, indicating a lack of labor market flexibility. A regression of the unemployment rate (u) on a smoothed indicator of real GDP growth for the period 1991–98 (with t-statistics in parentheses) yields a relatively low elasticity:

u t u t 1 = 0.4 ( 0.91 ) 0.33 ( g t + g t 1 ) / 2 ( 1.86 ) ( 2 )

Every percentage point increase in economic growth, reduces the unemployment rate by only one-third of one percentage point. This coefficient reflects a firm’s decision regarding how it adjusts its labor force in response to changes in output, which depends usually strongly on institutional factors affecting hiring and firing decisions. A low coefficient is usually indicative of labor market rigidities. According to the estimate, the Antillean economy is less flexible than economies that have made considerable progress in promoting labor market flexibility. For example, in the Netherlands, this coefficient has been estimated to be about 0.5 during 1981–1995.29 For Germany, the estimated coefficient was 0.27 during 1960–1980, but it increased to 0.42 during 1981–94.30 On the other hand, for the Japanese economy, the coefficient is still a low 0.23.

C. Institutional Features of the Labor Market

111. A review of the main institutional features of the Antillean labor market confirms the presence of significant labor market rigidities, affecting both supply and demand sides of the market Disincentives to participate in the labor force or to seek employment appear to be limited: there is no unemployment compensation and social welfare payments are capped at a modest 12 percent of average wages. Total direct spending on welfare payments was limited to about 0.8 percent of GDP in 1997–98. The marginal tax and social security wedge is relatively high, though, discouraging formal employment, while minimum wages and the possibility of emigrating to the Netherlands limit the effective supply of labor. The regulations governing dismissals, part-time labor, and the workweek, appear restrictive, and government wage setting and employment play an important role.

112. Wage setting is typically done through collective labor agreements at the enterprise level, and strongly influenced by minimum wages and wage developments in the public sector. Workers and employees are highly unionized and formal procedures are in place to elect representative labor unions at the level of the enterprise. These unions are responsible for collective bargaining. Strikes, mostly in public enterprises, are a relatively common feature of labor relations.31 A national mediator office helps resolve these strikes as well as conflicts over labor conditions, wages, interpretation of collective labor agreements, and dismissals. A system of multiple minimum wages is in place, differentiated by island and by sector of employment. Workers less than 21 years of age, are entitled to a fraction of the minimum wage ranging from 65 percent to 90 percent, depending on their age. Minimum wages are set on a monthly basis for all contracts with a workweek duration exceeding 22 hours and thus interact with the regulation on the duration of the workweek to determine labor costs. They have remained constant in nominal terms since 1996, following a significant increase during the first half of the decade. The level of minimum wages appears relatively high for the region, but perhaps not overly so, given the higher relative productivity of the economy of the Netherlands Antilles, and the fact that the regulations are not strictly enforced.32 According to 1997 data, approximately 21 percent of the employed earn the minimum wage. This percentage is somewhat higher in Sint Maarten (where minimum wages are higher). Reportedly, there are people earning less than the minimum wage.

113. The regulation on the duration of the workweek and overtime pay is applied in a rigid manner and the use of temporary or short-term labor contracts is tightly circumscribed. In December 1998, the maximum regular duration of the workweek was reduced from 45 hours per week to 40 hours per week. In addition, employees must have two full rest days per week, including Sunday. Any overtime on a workday or restday other than Sunday or holiday must be compensated at 150 percent of the normal compensation and any overtime on a Sunday or national holiday at 200 percent of the normal compensation. Contrary to the regulation applying before this change, workdays cannot be averaged over a period longer than a week. There are significant exemptions to this rule, in particular hotels, restaurants, bakeries, and navigation personnel. Use of temporary workers is limited, as such workers (provided through agencies) cannot be hired for two consecutive terms without becoming regular employees and obtaining rights under the dismissal law.33 The same rule applies to fixed-term contracts. Probation periods cannot last longer than two months.

114. With few exceptions, dismissal of employees requires prior approval of the director of the Department of Labor and Social Affairs and a cash severance payment An employer considering a layoff is required to submit an application stating the substantive reason for the dismissal. A dismissal commission will review the application, interview the employee(s), and notify the employer in writing of its decision within six weeks. Only after permission has been granted can the employer give notice to the employee. The period of notice is at least as long as the period spanning two wage payments, and in the case of a longer work relationship one week for each full year that the employee was in the service of the employer for up to a maximum of 13 weeks. Special rules apply for collective dismissal (i.e., when more than 25 percent of employees is dismissed), inter alia, consultation with the labor union. The required severance payment amounts to one week’s wages per year of employment for the first ten years and increases stepwise by decade of service.

115. The possibility of emigrating to the Netherlands and the import of legal and illegal labor impart peculiar dynamics to the Antillean labor market The fact that Antillean citizens are free to emigrate to the Netherlands has been seen as providing a safety valve to resolve tensions on the Antillean labor market, but it has also raised the reservation wage. High-skilled employees, who usually have been educated in the Netherlands, find the cost of emigrating relatively insignificant and demand wages that are comparable to those offered in the Dutch labor market. The inability of the Antillean economy to match these wages (except in the offshore finance sector) and the ensuing deficit of qualified labor is being partially resolved through the importation of skilled labor from other countries, mainly from Latin America and the Caribbean. Low-skilled workers, on the other hand, are tempted by the generous social safety net potentially available in the Netherlands, which raises expectations of wages and welfare benefits higher than the Antillean economy can afford to pay. At this end of the market, illegally imported labor is being used to circumvent labor market rigidities and the minimum wage regulation.

D. Concluding Remarks

116. Labor market policies implemented during the 1990s, on balance, appear to have contributed to an erosion of competitiveness and a consolidation of labor market rigidities, reversing an earlier trend toward promoting flexibility. During the 1980s, the authorities were keenly aware of the need for flexible labor markets to absorb real shocks in an economy as small and undiversified as that of the Netherlands Antilles. In response to several adverse shocks, they cut nominal wages and removed indexation from most labor agreements. These policies were reversed in the early 1990s, when the minimum wage and wages in the public sector were increased in excess of productivity gains and indexation and other suspended benefits were reintroduced. In late 1998, regulations governing the duration of the workweek were tightened further.

117. Against this background, it should not come as a surprise that the further adverse shocks that happened over the past five years have led to a protracted adjustment process and a lacklustre growth performance of the Antillean economy. Labor market rigidities interacted with these shocks to generate a sharp increase in the unemployment rate to levels not seen since 1990. The recent upward shift in labor costs will need to be absorbed through increases in productivity, ushering in a period of divergence between economic growth and employment creation. Were this period to last too long, hysteresis effects could well develop, given the already high and rising number of long-term, young, and low-skilled unemployed.

118. Increasing labor market flexibility will be essential to improve the outlook for growth and employment, and to facilitate the adjustment to future shocks. In particular, in light of the need for a further reduction of the civil service, trade liberalization, and enterprise reform and privatization, the labor market’s job creation potential will need to be strengthened. This can best be done through a dismantling of the regulations governing dismissals and fixed-term and temporary contracts, and the introduction of more flexibility in the law governing the duration of the workweek. Wage restraint in the public sector, including public enterprises, will be key, given the still dominant role of the public sector in the labor market. A reduction in high marginal tax rates will be beneficial to raise employment in the formal sector, while the skills mismatch between supply and demand in the local labor market needs to be addressed through educational reforms.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 1.

Netherlands Antilles: The Composition of GDP

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Nationale Rekeningen.
Table 2.

Netherlands Antilles: Components of Aggregate Demand

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Nationale Rekeningen.
Table 3.

Netherlands Antilles: Selected Indicators of Economic Activity

(Annual percentage change)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

Annual tonnage of shipping traffic in Antillean ports.

Value of completed buildings.

Number of visitors.

Table 4.

Netherlands Antilles: Basic Data on Stay-over Tourism 1/

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Source: Bank van de Netherlandse Antillen, Quarterly Bulletin.

Foreigners staying longer than 24 hours.

Table 5.

Netherlands Antilles: Changes in Consumer Prices

(Annual percentage change; period average)

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Source: Bank van de Nederlandse Antillen.
Table 6.

Netherlands Antilles: Minimum Wages 1/

(In NA guilders per month)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

Youth minimum wages which were introduced on September 1, 1993, are lower. They are expressed as percentages of the regular minimum wages, depending on age levels: 90 percent at age 20; 85 percent at age 19; 75 percent at age 18; and 65 percent at age 16 and 17.

Table 7.

Netherlands Antilles: Operations of the General Government

(In milllions of NA guilders)

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Sources: Data provided by the authorities; and Fund staff projections.

Net of ERNA transfers between different levels of government.

Pensions premiums due (including non-paid amounts).

Balance based on expenditure excluding accumulated pension premium arrears.

Table 8.

Netherlands Antilles: Operations of the General Government

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: Data provided by the authorities; and Fund staff projections.

Net of ERNA transfers between different levels of government.

Pensions premiums due (including non-paid amounts).

Balance based on expenditure excluding accumulated pension premium arrears.

Table 9.

Netherlands Antilles: Financing of the General Government

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Sources: Data provided by the authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 10.

Netherlands Antilles: General Government Debt

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

APNA Regentesselaan, APNA FZOG and Winkel Broth.

Table 11.

Netherlands Antilles: Operations of the Central Government

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Sources: Data provided by the authorities; and Fund staff projections.

Pensions premiums due (including non-paid amounts).

Table 12.

Netherlands Antilles: Operations of the Island Government of Curaçao

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Sources: Data provided by the authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Pensions premiums due (including non-paid amounts).

Table 13.

Netherlands Antilles: Flow of Development Aid

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.
Table 14.

Netherlands Antilles: Multi-Year Plan Disbursements by Sectors and Authorities

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.
Table 15.

Netherlands Antilles: Aid From the European Development Fund, Disbursements by Sectors and Authorities

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.
Table 16.

Netherlands Antilles: Monetary Survey

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

Includes gold revaluations from NA f. 67.5 million to NA f. 208.8 million in June 1995, to NA f. 189.5 million in January 1996 and to NA f. 179.8 in November 1998.

Table 17.

Netherlands Antilles: Commercial Bank Credit to the Private Sector

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

All mortgage borrowings have been accrued to entities on the Windward Islands.

All business borrowings have been accrued to entities on the Leeward Islands.

Table 18.

Netherlands Antilles: Interest Rates

(In percent, end of period)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

6-month time deposits reported for 1990-91,12-month time deposits there after.

Rate on three-month treasury bills.

Effective yield on five-year government bonds.

In effect from 9/1990 to 9/1991.

In effect from 9/1991 to 4/1993.

In effect from 4/1993 to 3/1995, when MCR in effect.

In effect from 3/1995 to 4/1995.

In effect from 4/1995 to 12/1996.

In effect from 1/1997 to 9/1998.

In effect in 10/1998.

In effect from 11/1998 to 12/1998.

Table 19.

Netherlands Antilles: Balance of Payments (Cash Basis)

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.
Table 20.

Netherlands Antilles: Current Inflows (Cash Basis)

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.
Table 21.

Netherlands Antilles: Current Outflows (Cash Basis)

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.
Table 22.

Netherlands Antilles: Capital Account (Cash Basis)

(In millions of NA guilders)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

Changes in net balances held abroad by residents, including transactions in securities with a maturity of less than one year.

Table 23.

Netherlands Antilles: Net International Reserves

(In millions of NA guilders, end of period)

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Source: Data provided by the authorities.

Includes revaluation of gold of NA f. 141.3 million in 1995, of NA f. -19.3 million in 1996 and of NA f. -0,5 million in 1997. In November 1998, gold was re-valuated and the goldfund pertaining to the status aparte of Aruba was settled.

26

Prepared by Luc Everaert.

27

Applications for employment in Bonaire by foreigners steadily rose during the first half of the 1990s. In 1995, they amounted to 36 percent of employment.

28

The sample includes Bahamas, Barbados, Jamaica, St. Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago.

29

Giorno, C., et. al., 1995, “Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps, and Structural Budget Balances,” OECD Working paper.

30

Olivier Blanchard, 1997, Macroeconomics (Prentice Hall), p. 363.

31

In 1997, 33 strikes were reported. Only 2 took place in private enterprises, while 17 occurred in public enterprises, and the remainder in public sector institutions.

32

Minimum wages in the Dominican Republic and Barbados, respectively, for example, are only 25 percent and 60 percent of those in the Antilles.

33

A consecutive contract is defined as a contract starting within 31 days following the termination of the preceding contract.

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