Prepared by Reva Krieger
Asset sale receipts are excluded, as are nonrecurrent revenues from telephone concessions.
The methodology follows Heller, Peter S, et al., “A Review of the Fiscal Impulse Measure,” International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., May 1986.
Prieto, William O.B., and Norberto Rodriguez, “Una Aproximación al PIB Potencial en Colombia: El Enfoque de Una Función de Productión,” mimeo, Banco de la República, September 1997.
Although the estimated degree of slack in the Colombian economy at end-1997 may appear low in comparison with the actual unemployment rate, several studies point to a large structural component to unemployment in Colombia, i.e., one that is invariant to deviations of aggregate output from potential. For example, Henao and Rojas (1998) estimate the natural rate of unemployment to have been about 10.5 percent during the period 1982-96; see Henao and Rojas, “La Tasa Natural de Desempleo en Colombia,” National Planning Department Working Paper No. 89, July 1998. A recent study by the IDB found that only about one-fifth of the current unemployment rate is Colombia is attributable to cyclical factors, with the remainder reflecting structural and frictional elements; see IDB, “Desempleo en Colombia,” IDB mimeo, 1998.