Honduras: Selected Issues
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This Selected Issues paper analyzes growth performance and constraints for Honduras’ economy. The findings indicate that Honduras’ low growth rates in real per capita GDP reflect the influence of a combination of factors. Policy- and efficiency-related variables, exogenous shocks, and political uncertainty seem to have had less of a negative influence on growth in Honduras than they have had on the comparator groups. Instead, low growth appears to be closely related to the low productivity of labor and capital, and the poor composition of investment and inadequate physical infrastructure.

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper analyzes growth performance and constraints for Honduras’ economy. The findings indicate that Honduras’ low growth rates in real per capita GDP reflect the influence of a combination of factors. Policy- and efficiency-related variables, exogenous shocks, and political uncertainty seem to have had less of a negative influence on growth in Honduras than they have had on the comparator groups. Instead, low growth appears to be closely related to the low productivity of labor and capital, and the poor composition of investment and inadequate physical infrastructure.

V. Exchange System41

A. Antecedents to the Present Exchange System

61. After the collapse of the exchange peg in 1990 that was triggered by the expansionary policies of the 1980s, the central bank initiated efforts to reform the exchange system. Under these initial reforms, a number of distortions and exchange restrictions that had been used to defend the exchange peg were eliminated. Also, all restrictions on the holdings of foreign exchange deposits in the commercial banks and on their use were removed, and most foreign exchange transactions were shifted to the commercial banks, and conducted at freely negotiated rates within a band of 2.5 percent around the official rate. In turn, the central bank set the official exchange rate on the basis of conditions prevailing in the interbank and parallel markets.

62. The exchange system was liberalized further in 1992 as the lempira was allowed to float freely in the interbank market. The central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market only to ensure that its target for net international reserves was met, but banks and exchange houses were obliged to surrender 20 percent of their foreign exchange purchases. Under the reform, the lempira depreciated substantially (50 percent in real effective terms during the period 1990–92), and helped restore external competitiveness in the face of a decline in the terms of trade (30 percent during the same period). Also, the exchange rate spread between the parallel and official markets declined to less than 2 percent from the much higher differentials (at times, as high as 70 percent) observed prior to 1990.

63. Financial policies were relaxed in the wake of a general election in November 1993, and the exchange rate depreciated further, i.e., by 17 percent in real terms in the 18-month period ended in mid-1994. Imperfections in the functioning of the interbank market amplified the volatility in the exchange rate in this period, and in June 1994 the authorities decided to suspend temporarily the exchange rate float. It was expected that an auction mechanism would be introduced as a temporary measure while weaknesses in the interbank market were addressed. Steps were identified in 1994, with the technical assistance from the Fund, to improve the infrastructure, increase supervision, and enhance transparency in the interbank market. However, progress in implementing these steps was slow and the auction has been converted into a virtually permanent arrangement.

B. The Interbank Market

64. For many years, the development of the interbank market had been inhibited by a high degree of concentration in the banking system and the active role of the central bank as a provider of short-term liquidity. These conditions changed little with the advent of floating in the context of the interbank market, with the result that the market lacked sufficiently broad participation by financial institutions which led to some concerns about collusion among the main, large participants. The key problems that had impaired the functioning of the interbank market centered on the following areas:

  • Inadequate trading infrastructure: Lack of trading desks and an underdeveloped clearing system for foreign exchange operations resulted in low trading activity among intermediaries (banks and exchange houses) and poor dissemination of data within the market. Appropriate information standards were not put in place, making it difficult to obtain a representative exchange rate used in daily operations with the public.

  • High concentration of operations in a few banks: Six banks accounted for an estimated half of foreign exchange purchased from the public. This situation limited access to the exchange market because those banks were inclined to sell foreign exchange to their associated industrial and/or trading groups. Smaller agents usually looked to the parallel market to satisfy their foreign exchange needs.

  • Insufficient supervision and restrictive regulations: Lack of prudential standards, including a conduct code for operators, made supervision of intermediaries weak. The central bank maintained restrictive foreign exchange regulations that resulted in high surrender requirements (up to 50 percent of purchases); purchases of exchange surrenders at below-market exchange rates; and a structure of operating fees, which did not permit intermediaries to determine their own spread.

  • Weak instruments of monetary policy: The central bank continued to be an important source of short-term liquidity, preventing the development of an interbank market and secondary trading of open market instruments. Also, weak enforcement of existing reserve requirements, and the absence of limits on open foreign exchange positions allowed banks to satisfy their liquidity requirements without recourse to other financial intermediaries.

C. Features of the Present Exchange System

65. The exchange system is based on a daily foreign exchange auction conducted by the central bank. The supply of foreign exchange to the auction is based on the requirement for full surrender of all current proceeds, except for exports to Central America and private remittances. Currently, the central bank offers for sale in the auction a minimum of 60 percent of its purchases of foreign exchange from banks and other authorized institutions. This minimum amount, as well as the base price obtained in the previous day’s auction are announced before each new auction. Prospective buyers in the auction have to make offers to purchase amounts ranging from US$5,000 to US$300,000, and the auction rate is determined as the average of accepted bids on the basis of a Dutch auction, and may not exceed the base rate42 by +/- 7 percent. Regarding the buying and selling rate spread, current rules mandate that intermediaries sell foreign exchange with a markup of up to 1.5 percent over the auction rate and that the central bank buys foreign exchange at the auction rate of the previous day plus a commission of 0.6 percent.

D. Recent Exchange Rate Developments

66. Over most of the period from June 1994 to December 1996, the exchange rate was at the most depreciated limit of the bidding band and, in view of the authorities’ policy of maintaining unchanged the nominal exchange rate, rationing of foreign exchange had to be used as the basis for meeting demands and the real exchange rate appreciated sharply. Despite this, the spread between the parallel and auction exchange rates remained small. The net international reserves position of the central bank improved significantly during this period while short-term private capital inflows emerged, reflecting a sharp increase in domestic interest rates. The interest rate differential between central bank instruments and those available in the United States rose from about 10 percent at end-1994 to close to 30 percent at end-1996 (Figure 5).

Figure 5.
Figure 5.

Honduras: Exchange and Interest Rate Developments

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1998, 122; 10.5089/9781451817041.002.A005

Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.1/ Spread between interest rate on 90-day central bank bonds (adjusted by the depreciation of the lempira against the U.S. dollar) and LIBOR.

67. The central bank continued to pursue a policy of maintaining largely fixed the nominal exchange rate during 1997 in an attempt to hold down inflationary pressures. This policy, combined with a marked inflow of short-term private capital inflows that stemmed from high interest rates and the government’s exchange rate policy, led to a marked increase in net international reserves and sales of foreign exchange in the auction (Tables 1 and 2),43 and the real exchange rate appreciated by almost 17 percent. The rate of appreciation slowed slightly in the first half of 1998 in line with a small decline in coffee prices and a downturn in capital inflows.

Table 1.

Honduras: Foreign Exchange Operations in the Auction

(Monthly average in millions of U.S. dollars)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

In June 1996 the amount offered became the minimum amount to be sold in the auction.

Table 2.

Honduras: Net International Reserve Coverage

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 1.

Honduras: National Accounts

(In millions of current lempiras)

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 2.

Honduras: National Accounts at Constant Prices

(In millions of 1978 lempiras)

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 3.

Honduras: Origin of Gross Domestic Product

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 4.

Honduras: Financing of Investment

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.

Equivalent to the current account balance of the nonfinancial public sector.

Equivalent to the sum of GNP plus external transfers.

Table 5.

Honduras: Composition of Fixed Capital Formation

(In millions of current lempiras)

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 6.

Honduras: Statistics on Selected Agricultural Products

(Area in thousands of hectares; production and exports in thousands of quintals; yield in quintals per hectare; values in millions of current lempiras)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 7.

Honduras: Production and Prices of Basic Grains

(Production in thousands of quintals; prices in lempiras per quintal)

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Sources: Honduran Institute for Agricultural Marketing (IHMA); and Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 8.

Honduras: Consumer Price Index

(1978 = 100)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

In percent.

Average over 12-month period ended in December.

Data refers to the month of December.

Table 9.

Honduras: Wholesale Price Index

(1978 = 100)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

In percent.

Average over 12-month period ended in December.

Data refers to the month of December.

Table 10.

Honduras: Average Daily Minimum Wage by Sector

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 11.

Honduras: Total Labor Remuneration by Sector

(In millions of current lempiras)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 12.

Honduras: Labor Force by Sector

(In percent of total labor force)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 13.

Honduras: Consolidated Operations of the Nonfinancial Public Sector

(In millions of lempiras)

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Source: Ministry of Finance.

Includes taxes in the revaluation of assets in 1993 and on net assets in 1994 -1997.

Excludes interest obligations.

Estimated as total interest obligations minus interest payments by the rest of the public sector.

Includes contributions to IHSS, INJUPEM, and IMPREMA.

Includes change in accounts receivable.

Includes change in accounts payable.

Table 14.

Honduras: Central Government Revenue

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Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table 15.

Honduras: Operations of the Social Security Institute

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; Honduran Institute Social Security; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 16.

Honduras: Operations of INJUPEMP 1/

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank of Honduras; INJUPEMP; and Fund staff estimates.

National Institute of Pensions for public employees.

Table 17.

Honduras: Operations of INPREMA 1/

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; IMPREMA; and Fund staff estimates.

Pension fund for civil service and teachers.

Table 18.

Honduras: Operations of the Local Governments

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Source: Central government budget.
Table 19.

Honduras: Operations of the Decentralized Agencies 1/

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Source: Central government budget.

Includes SID, INA, INFOP, IHADFA, IHDECOOP, JNBS, UNAH, UPN, PANI, EDUCREDITO, JOURNALISTS CORP, SPORTS FED. Excluding FHIS.

Table 20.

Honduras: Operations of National Enterprise of Electricity Energy, ENEE

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; ENEE; Central Bank; and Fund staff estimates.

On accrual basis; cash amounts obtained by deducting changes in accounts receivable.

Includes employers contributions to the social security system.

Table 21.

Honduras: Operations of the National Telecommunications Enterprise, HONDUTEL

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; HONDUTEL; Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.

On accrual basis; cash amounts obtained by deducting changes in accounts receivable.

Includes employers contributions to the social security system.

Table 22.

Honduras: Operations of the National Autonomous Water and Sewerage Service, SANAA

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; SANAA; Central Bank; and Fund staff estimates.

On accrual basis; cash amounts obtained by deducting changes in accounts receivable.

Includes employers contributions to the social security system.

Table 23.

Honduras: Operations of the National Ports Enterprise, ENP

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank; and Fund staff estimates.

On accrual basis; cash amounts obtained by deducting changes in accounts receivable.

Includes employers contributions to the social security system.

Table 24.

Honduras: Detailed Accounts of the Financial System

(In millions of lempiras)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

Includes valuation adjustment.

Housing Fund.

Open market operations.

Table 25.

Honduras: Destination of Banking System Credit to the Private Sector

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 26.

Honduras: Legal Reserve Requirements, End of Period

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

In addition, 19 percent as obligatory investment in official securities for 1997.

Savings certificates and certificates of deposit.

Long-term bonds issued to finance specific activities.

In addition, 38 percent in foreign deposits and investments abroad for 1997.

US$25,000 minimum balance.

Banks are authorized to hold these reserves in deposits abroad or in credits for exports.

In addition, 9 percent as obligatory investment in official securities for 1997.

In addition, 3 percent as obligatory investment in official securities for 1997.

For banks lending mainly to the agricultural sector.

Table 27.

Honduras: Distribution of Domestic Bonded Debt

(In millions of lempiras)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 28.

Honduras: Weighted Interest Rates of the Banking System

(In percent, end of period)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

Nominal rates deflated by the estimated inflation.

Table 29.

Honduras: Balance of Payments, 1993–97

(In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.

Data on portfolio investment is not available before 1996.

Imports of goods and non factor services.

Includes arrears to the Paris Club.

Medium and long-term public and publically guaranted external debt.

Principal and interest arrears, includes arrears to the Paris Club.

Exports of goods and non factor services.

Table 30.

Honduras: Exports by Product, 1993–97

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 31.

Honduras: Economic Classification of Imports, 1993–97

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.

Customs basis.

Table 32.

Honduras: Foreign Trade Indices, 1993–97 1/

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.

All indices are Laspeyres.

Table 33.

Honduras: Distribution of Exports, f.o.b. by Destination, 1993–96

(As percent of total)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

Central American Common Market countries include Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

Table 34.

Honduras: Distribution of Imports, c.i.f., by Origin, 1993–96

(In percent of total)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

Excludes adjustments for undervaluation and coverage.

Central America Common Market countries include Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.

Table 35.

Honduras: Visible Trade with the Central American Common Market, 1993–97

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

Excludes adjustments for undervaluation and coverage.

Table 36.

Honduras: Medium- and Long-term, Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt and Debt Service, 1993–97

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and Fund staff estimates.

Including CABEI.

Debt service in percent of export of goods and services.

Table 37.

Honduras: Stock of Arrears, 1994–97

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Source: Central Bank of Honduras.
Table 38.

Honduras: Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates, 1993–97 1/

(Period Averages; 1990 = 100)

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Sources: Central Bank of Honduras; and the Information Notice System.

A decline in the index reflects depreciation.

41

Prepared by Mario Garza.

42

The base rate is adjusted every 5 auctions in line with the (estimated) differential in inflation rates between Honduras and its main trading partners.

43

Sales of foreign exchange in the auction increased markedly in the third and fourth quarters of 1997, and gross international reserves declined markedly.

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Honduras: Selected Issues
Author:
International Monetary Fund