Front Matter Page
© 1998 International Monetary Fund
October 1998
IMF Staff Country Report No. 98/108
Republic of Belarus: Recent Economic Developments
This Recent Economic Developments report on the Republic of Belarus was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. As such, the views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of the Republic of Belarus or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Front Matter Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
Recent Economic Developments
Prepared by a staff team consisting of Messrs. Wolf (head), de Zamaróczy, Kramarenko, Izvorski, Ma, Flanagan (all EU2), and Haas (former Resident Representative in Minsk)
Approved by the European II Department
August 11, 1998
Contents
Basic Data
I. Overview
II. Real Economy, Prices, and Incomes
A. Overall Economic Activity
B. Output by Sectors
Industry
C. Agriculture and Forestry
Services
D. Energy
E. Inflation and Effects of Price Policies
F. Wages, Income, and Employment
Wages and income
Employment
G. Financial Position of Enterprises
III. Public Finance
A. Overview of Public Finance in 1997 and the First Quarter of 1998
B. State Budget Revenue
C. State Budget Expenditure and Net Lending
D. Social Protection Fund
E. Financing of the General Government Deficit
F. Tax Harmonization with the Russian Federation
G. Institutional Developments
H. Prospects for 1998
IV. Monetary Policy and Banking Sector Development
A. Overview
B. Monetary Developments in 1997 and Early 1998
Directed credits
Indirect monetary policy instruments
Interest rates
The banking system
V. External Sector
A. Exchange and Payments System
B. Trade System
C. Balance of Payments Developments
Trade developments
Other balance of payments developments
External debt and debt service
VI. Structural Policy
A. The Institutional and Legal Environment
B. Privatization
C. Enterprise and Labor Market Policy
D. Price Regulation and Demonopolization
Text tables
1. Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1993–97
2. Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1993–97
3. Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1993–97
4. Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1993–97
5. Capital Investment by Sectors in Comparable Prices, 1993–98
6. Industrial Production, 1993–98
7. Inventories of Ready-Made Products in the Warehouses of Industrial Enterprises, by Branches of the Economy, 1995–98
8. Selected Indicators of Industrial Production, 1993–97
9. Share of Total Exports in Production of Selected Industrial Products, 1993–97
10. Agricultural Production, 1993–97
11. Share of Private Sector in Agriculture, 1993–97
12. Distribution of Agricultural Land, 1993–97
13. Share of Agricultural Production Sold Through State Procurement Organizations, 1993–97
14. Production and Consumption of Energy, 1993–97
15. Price Developments, 1992–98
16. Changes in Administered Prices of Household Services, 1997–98
17. Tariffs and Cost Coverage for Households, 1996–98
18. Average Monthly Wages, 1993–97
19. Price and Wage Developments, 1993–98
20. Money Income and Expenditures of Population, 1995–98
21. Labor Market Indicators, 1993–98
22. Average Monthly Employment by Branches, 1993–98
23. Enterprise Profits and Losses, 1993–98
24. Profit-Making Enterprises by Branch, 1995–97
25. Interenterprise Arrears, 1995–98
26. Sectoral Distribution of Energy Debts of Enterprises, 1996–98
27. Summary of General Government Operations (Old Presentation), 1993–97
28. Summary of General Government Operations (New Presentation), 1996–98
29. Summary of General Government Operations (Old Presentation), 1993–97
30. Summary of General Government Operations (New Presentation), 1996–98
31. State Budget, 1993–97
32. State Budget, 1993–97
33. Tax Arrears, 1993–98
34. Social Funds, 1993–97
35. Extrabudgetary Funds, 1993–97
36. General Government Debt, 1993–98
37. Monetary Survey, 1996–98
38. Accounts of the National Bank of Belarus, 1996–98
39. Deposit Money Banks’ Account, 1996–98
40. National Bank of Belarus’s Directed Credits, 1995–98
41. Composition of Bank Lending by Type of Credit and Sector, 1993–98
42. Auctions of National Bank of Belarus’s Credits, 1997–April 1998
43. Auctions of Securities, 1997–98
44. Minimum Reserve Requirements, 1993–97
45. Interest Rates of the National Bank of Belarus, 1997–98
46. Interest Rates on Commercial Banks’ Time Deposits with the National Bank of Belarus, 1997–98
47. Interest Rates on Banks Deposits, 1997–98
48. Interest Rates on Bank Credit, 1997–98
49. Interest Rates on New Foreign Exchange Deposits and Credits, 1997–98
50. Structural Characteristics of the Banking Sector, 1995–97
51. Commercial Banks, Selected Indicators, 1995–97
52. Six Largest Commercial Banks, Selected Indicators, 1995–98
53. Commercial Banks and Branches of Foreign Banks
54. Liquidity Ratios of Functioning Banks, 1995–97
55. Official Exchange Rates, 1993–98
56. Direction of Trade: Exports and Imports, 1993–98
57. Selected Exports, 1993–98
58. Selected Imports, 1993–98
59. External Trade in Goods by Economic Branches, 1995–97
60. External Trade in Goods with CIS Countries by Economic Branches, 1995–97
61. External Trade in Goods with Non-CIS Countries by Economic Branches, 1995–97
62. Balance of Payments, 1993–98
63. Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 1993–98
64. Transformation of State Property, 1993–98
65. Transformation of State Property, 1993–98
66. Number of Transformed Enterprises by Activity, 1993–98
67. Number of Transformed Enterprises by Method of Transformation, 1993–98
68. Number of Employees in Transformed Enterprises, 1993–98
69. Number of Employees in Transformed Enterprises, 1993–98
70. Housing Privatization, 1993–98
Figures
1. Composition of GDP, 1993 and 1997
2. Industrial Production by Sector, 1997
3. Inflation and Wages in Selected Countries, 1994–98
4. Fiscal Indicators, 1992–98
5. General Government Revenue, 1993 and 1997
6. Monetary Aggregates, 1995–98
7. Inflation-Adjusted Refinance Rate, 1994–98
8. Real Exchange Rates, 1994–98
9. Share of CIS Countries and Russia in Total Trade, 1992–98
10. BRO: Average Foreign Direct Investment, 1997
11. Gross Official Convertible Reserves of the NBB, 1995–98
Appendices
I. The Sources of Growth
II. Status of the Tax System: May 1, 1998
III. Status of the Social Safety Net: May 1, 1998
Appendix boxes
1. The Role of Implicit Taxation in Export Barter Growth
2. Definition of Restructuring
3. System of Monitoring Performance of Enterprises by the Ministry of Industry
Appendix tables
71. Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine: Composition of Net Material Product and Industrial Output, 1991
72. Illustration of the Keynessian Multiplier, 1997
73. Terms of Trade and Trade Volumes, 1996–97
74. Excise Taxes on Domestically Produced Goods, 1993–98
75. Excise Taxes on Imported Goods until January 1, 1998
76. Excise Rates on Excisable Goods
77. Fee Rates
78. Types of Pensions and Pension Recipients as of February 1, 1998
79. Social Indicators and Insurance Contribution Rates in Selected Countries
80. Age Structure of Population, 1994–97
81. Number of Employed and Pensioners, 1993–97
Belarus: Basic Data, 1992-98
1998 figures refer to May.
Includes an adjustment for discrepancy between monetary and fiscal data.
Excluding on-lending of government funds to agriculture.
Data are not comparable across years due to significant revisions.
| 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | |||||||||
| Social and demographic indicators | |||||||||
| Population (in thousands) | 10,346 | 10,367 | 10,346 | 10,246 | 10,235 | 10,203 | … | ||
| Urban | 7,026 | 7,026 | 7,074 | 7,061 | 7,071 | 7,214 | … | ||
| Rural | 3,320 | 3,320 | 3,293 | 3,236 | 3,793 | 3,869 | … | ||
| Population density (inhabitants persq. km.) | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 49 | 49 | … | ||
| Life expectancy at birth (in years) | 70 | 69.2 | 68.9 | 68.6 | … | … | … | ||
| Infant mortality rate (per thousand) | 12 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 12.1 | … | ||
| Annual population growth rate (in percent) | 0.0 | 0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | … | ||
| Gross domestic product (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 2,210 | 568 | 4,881 | 10,389 | 13,529 | 13,241 | 3,199 | ||
| (Percentage changes in constant prices) 3/ | |||||||||
| Output | |||||||||
| GDP | −9.6 | −7.6 | −12.6 | −10.4 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 12.0 | ||
| of which: | |||||||||
| Industry | −5.7 | −9.9 | −19.2 | −10.2 | 4.1 | 17.1 | … | ||
| Agriculture | −14.5 | 1.5 | −15.3 | −2.5 | 1.4 | −6.4 | … | ||
| Industrial production | −9.4 | −10.0 | −17.1 | −11.7 | 3.5 | 17.6 | 14.6 | ||
| Retail trade | −26.0 | −21.1 | −22.0 | −26.0 | −23.0 | … | … | ||
| (Percent changes within period) | |||||||||
| Prices and Wages | |||||||||
| Industrial producer prices (end of period) 1/ | 3,275 | 2,316 | 1,867 | 122 | 31 | 90 | 16 | ||
| Consumer prices (end of period) 1/ | 1,559 | 1,996 | 1,960 | 244 | 39 | 63 | 19 | ||
| Average wage, excluding kolkhozes | 1,064 | 1,234 | 1,489 | 307 | 61 | 88 | … | ||
| Minimum wage (period average) | 733 | 900 | 900 | 200 | 67 | … | … | ||
| (In U.S. dollars) | |||||||||
| Average monthly wage (end of period) | 24 | 23 | 27 | 66 | 91 | 101 | 111 | ||
| Minimum wage (end-of period) | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | … | ||
| General government finance | (In percent of GDP) | ||||||||
| Revenue | 46.1 | 54.3 | 47.5 | 42.7 | 40.9 | 46.1 | 53.0 | ||
| Expenditure 2/ | 46.1 | 56.2 | 50.0 | 44.6 | 42.6 | 46.8 | 53.1 | ||
| Balance 2/ | 0.0 | −1.9 | −2.5 | −1.9 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −0.1 | ||
| (Percent changes from previous period) | |||||||||
| Money and credit 1/ | |||||||||
| Rubel broad money | 510 | 573 | 1,423 | 292 | 67 | 103 | 26 | ||
| Credit to enterprises and households 3/ | 1,582 | 610 | 1,905 | 134 | 56 | … | … | ||
| Refinance rate (percent per annum, end-of-period) | 30 | 210 | 300 | 66 | 35 | 42 | 40 | ||
| (In millions of U.S. dollars) | |||||||||
| Merchandise trade 4/ | |||||||||
| Exports of goods | 3,580 | 2,812 | 2,641 | 4,621 | 5,790 | 7,383 | 1,777 | ||
| Imports of goods | −3,203 | −3,863 | −3,351 | −5,149 | −6,939 | −8,718 | −2,258 | ||
| Trade balance | 377 | −1,051 | −710 | −528 | −1,149 | −1,335 | −481 | ||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | 1 | −30 | −13 | −2 | −4 | −6 | −11 | ||
| Exchange rate (Rubel/US$, end-of-period) 1/ | 51 | 698 | 10,600 | 11,500 | 15,500 | 31,230 | 35,760 | ||
1998 figures refer to May.
Includes an adjustment for discrepancy between monetary and fiscal data.
Excluding on-lending of government funds to agriculture.
Data are not comparable across years due to significant revisions.
| 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | |||||||||
| Social and demographic indicators | |||||||||
| Population (in thousands) | 10,346 | 10,367 | 10,346 | 10,246 | 10,235 | 10,203 | … | ||
| Urban | 7,026 | 7,026 | 7,074 | 7,061 | 7,071 | 7,214 | … | ||
| Rural | 3,320 | 3,320 | 3,293 | 3,236 | 3,793 | 3,869 | … | ||
| Population density (inhabitants persq. km.) | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 49 | 49 | … | ||
| Life expectancy at birth (in years) | 70 | 69.2 | 68.9 | 68.6 | … | … | … | ||
| Infant mortality rate (per thousand) | 12 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 12.1 | … | ||
| Annual population growth rate (in percent) | 0.0 | 0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | … | ||
| Gross domestic product (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 2,210 | 568 | 4,881 | 10,389 | 13,529 | 13,241 | 3,199 | ||
| (Percentage changes in constant prices) 3/ | |||||||||
| Output | |||||||||
| GDP | −9.6 | −7.6 | −12.6 | −10.4 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 12.0 | ||
| of which: | |||||||||
| Industry | −5.7 | −9.9 | −19.2 | −10.2 | 4.1 | 17.1 | … | ||
| Agriculture | −14.5 | 1.5 | −15.3 | −2.5 | 1.4 | −6.4 | … | ||
| Industrial production | −9.4 | −10.0 | −17.1 | −11.7 | 3.5 | 17.6 | 14.6 | ||
| Retail trade | −26.0 | −21.1 | −22.0 | −26.0 | −23.0 | … | … | ||
| (Percent changes within period) | |||||||||
| Prices and Wages | |||||||||
| Industrial producer prices (end of period) 1/ | 3,275 | 2,316 | 1,867 | 122 | 31 | 90 | 16 | ||
| Consumer prices (end of period) 1/ | 1,559 | 1,996 | 1,960 | 244 | 39 | 63 | 19 | ||
| Average wage, excluding kolkhozes | 1,064 | 1,234 | 1,489 | 307 | 61 | 88 | … | ||
| Minimum wage (period average) | 733 | 900 | 900 | 200 | 67 | … | … | ||
| (In U.S. dollars) | |||||||||
| Average monthly wage (end of period) | 24 | 23 | 27 | 66 | 91 | 101 | 111 | ||
| Minimum wage (end-of period) | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | … | ||
| General government finance | (In percent of GDP) | ||||||||
| Revenue | 46.1 | 54.3 | 47.5 | 42.7 | 40.9 | 46.1 | 53.0 | ||
| Expenditure 2/ | 46.1 | 56.2 | 50.0 | 44.6 | 42.6 | 46.8 | 53.1 | ||
| Balance 2/ | 0.0 | −1.9 | −2.5 | −1.9 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −0.1 | ||
| (Percent changes from previous period) | |||||||||
| Money and credit 1/ | |||||||||
| Rubel broad money | 510 | 573 | 1,423 | 292 | 67 | 103 | 26 | ||
| Credit to enterprises and households 3/ | 1,582 | 610 | 1,905 | 134 | 56 | … | … | ||
| Refinance rate (percent per annum, end-of-period) | 30 | 210 | 300 | 66 | 35 | 42 | 40 | ||
| (In millions of U.S. dollars) | |||||||||
| Merchandise trade 4/ | |||||||||
| Exports of goods | 3,580 | 2,812 | 2,641 | 4,621 | 5,790 | 7,383 | 1,777 | ||
| Imports of goods | −3,203 | −3,863 | −3,351 | −5,149 | −6,939 | −8,718 | −2,258 | ||
| Trade balance | 377 | −1,051 | −710 | −528 | −1,149 | −1,335 | −481 | ||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | 1 | −30 | −13 | −2 | −4 | −6 | −11 | ||
| Exchange rate (Rubel/US$, end-of-period) 1/ | 51 | 698 | 10,600 | 11,500 | 15,500 | 31,230 | 35,760 | ||
1998 figures refer to May.
Includes an adjustment for discrepancy between monetary and fiscal data.
Excluding on-lending of government funds to agriculture.
Data are not comparable across years due to significant revisions.