This Selected Issues paper highlights that cautious monetary and fiscal polices of South Africa during 1997 resulted in a return of financial investor confidence and capital inflows during 1997 and through April 1998. These policies helped the South African economy emerge successfully from the exchange market pressures of 1996 and weather the contagion from the East Asian crisis in the second half of 1997. Throughout 1997 and up until May 1998, inflation and market interest rates fell considerably, net international reserves increased, and the net open forward position of the Reserve Bank was reduced sharply.

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper highlights that cautious monetary and fiscal polices of South Africa during 1997 resulted in a return of financial investor confidence and capital inflows during 1997 and through April 1998. These policies helped the South African economy emerge successfully from the exchange market pressures of 1996 and weather the contagion from the East Asian crisis in the second half of 1997. Throughout 1997 and up until May 1998, inflation and market interest rates fell considerably, net international reserves increased, and the net open forward position of the Reserve Bank was reduced sharply.

VIII. International Reserves and External Debt

A. Overview

260. South Africa’s external debt is moderate by international standards although its international reserves are considerably exceeded by the oversold forward position of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). A significant proportion of foreign debt is denominated in domestic currency terms, in part due to capital inflows into the bond market in recent years and in part to historical limits on the ability of emigrants to transfer capital abroad.1 Reserves are unencumbered and usable reserves cover a high proportion of short-term foreign currency external debt.

261. Data quality is high, assisted in part by a history of extensive exchange controls.2 That said, there are a number of areas in which the authorities could improve the statistical base, particularly as regards the timeliness of data collections from the private nonfinancial sector. In addition, the experience in Asia has illustrated that foreign debt alone is not an adequate indicator of external exposure, and it would be important that the authorities expand their collection of data to address some of the “missing pieces”. The authorities are aware of the importance of ensuring high quality data, and are considering steps to maintain the existing integrity of data on debt as exchange controls continue to be progressively eased.

B. Monetary Authorities

262. South Africa’s reserve assets (gross foreign reserves) comprise the gross foreign reserves of the SARB (the gross official reserves) plus the short-term foreign assets of the private banking sector and the central government.3 Data on official reserves are compiled and marked to market daily. They are made public within one week of the end of the month, in accordance with the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), to which South Africa subscribes.4 Table 20 shows that at the end of May, 1998, South Africa’s gross official reserves stood at US$6.4 billion or the equivalent of 10 weeks of imports of goods and nonfactor services. At the same time, net official reserves were US$3.1 billion5, or around one month of imports. By way of comparison, at end-December 1997 gross official reserves were US$5.9 billion and net official reserves were US$3.8 billion. At that time, the rest of the monetary sector held an additional US$1.7 billion of gold and other foreign reserves.

Table 20.

Official Reserves and Reserve-Related Liabilities

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Sources: South African Reserve Bank; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes foreign loans received but excludes obligations to the IMF.

In months of imports of goods and nonfactor services.

Includes reserve assets held by the private sector. The most recent data is for end-March 1998.

At June 30, 1997.

At December 31, 1996.

Emigrants’ blocked funds are assumed to be long-term debt; all other rand-denominated debt is treated as short term.

Domestic currency debt at December 1996 plus foreign currency debt at June 1997.

Usable official reserves at May 29, 1998, to short-term foreign currency debt at June 30, 1997.

263. The foreign assets of the SARB are readily available and controlled by the authorities.6 The authorities advise that official reserves are unencumbered and are not placed on deposit with foreign branches of domestic banks. Virtually all reserves are held as instruments with Al or higher credit ratings. The authorities also indicate that there are no contingent liabilities other than those related to the SARB’s forward operations.

264. Monthly data on the stock of reserve-related liabilities of the SARB and of South Africa’s total gross external reserves are published in the SARB Quarterly Bulletin with a two to three month lag. However, the monthly Statement on Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves contains data both on gross official reserves and the extent to which foreign credit lines have been utilized in building gross reserves, which allows net reserves to be inferred on a monthly basis. The Monthly Release of Selected Data (available within four weeks of the end of the month) also provides data on changes in the total net foreign assets, with a lag of one month, which allows the level of gross external reserves to be inferred between Bulletin releases.

265. The SARB has traditionally operated extensively in forward foreign exchange markets on account of the government, running a large oversold forward position. Due to the need to facilitate imports and capital inflow during the period of sanctions, the SARB provided cover at less than market rates for both short-term and long-term transactions: “corporates could borrow abroad and hedge their exposure cheaply by buying forward cover from SARB at a cost subsidized by the South African taxpayer.”7 The SARB’s operations in the forward market are now priced at market rates and are exclusively short term. However, the average original maturity of all outstanding contracts is around 9 months, due to pre-existing long-term contracts. The net open forward position (NOFP)—the oversold forward book less net official reserves—is now published monthly, within one week of the end of the month. As at May 30, 1998, the NOFP stood at US$17.9 billion (around 14 percent of GDP) and the oversold forward book was US$21.0 billion. Data on unrealized gains and losses on the forward book are released periodically, although not on any regular schedule.

266. The authorities occasionally use transactions in other derivatives to manage reserve assets. These have generally involved the use of options to hedge portfolios (e.g., gold production), rather than to influence the exchange rate per se. Forward sales to nonresidents against future gold production are also sometimes used to drawdown pre-export credit lines. On one occasion an interest rate swap has been used for hedging purposes. In all cases, financial derivatives are marked to market on a daily basis, although gains and losses are not reflected in the accounts of the monetary authorities until the contracts mature.

C. Total External Debt

267. In line with the Fund’s standard approach, South Africa’s data distinguish between domestic and foreign obligations according to residency—foreign liabilities are obligations to nonresidents regardless of the currency in which the obligation is denominated. Domestic-currency denominated claims on nonresidents and the foreign currency assets of a South African resident foreign-owned bank are all included in the foreign assets of the South African domestic banking sector. By the same token, only the equity and loans provided by a South African parent bank to its offshore branches or subsidiaries are included in the foreign assets of the domestic banking sector—all other assets of the branch or subsidiary are assets of the country in which it undertakes operations.

268. South Africa publishes comprehensive data on foreign assets and liabilities (debt and equity) of all sectors although these data—published in the International Investment Position (IIP)—are available only on an annual basis, with the most recent data being for December 31, 1996, Data are compiled by the SARB using enterprise-based sample surveys and periodic censuses. The most recent Census8 compiled estimates of the stock of assets and liabilities as at December 31, 1995. The Quarterly Bulletin contains IIP data on assets and liabilities by country or region of residence and by industry sector, while the Census also provides a cross tabulation. For example, the Census reveals that at end-December 1995, the construction sector had R224 million of foreign liabilities to EU residents, of which R89 million was in the form of debt.

269. While the lags are still lengthy, data on foreign debt are generally compiled in a more timely fashion than are data on total external liabilities. The South African authorities compile debt data separately for both the foreign and domestic currency obligations of the public and private sectors. While the foreign currency debt is compiled on a semiannual basis, data on domestic currency obligations to nonresidents is currently compiled only annually. Table 21 shows that at December 31, 1996, total external debt was US$32.9 billion (26 percent of GDP). At June 30, 1997, foreign currency denominated debt was US$23.4 billion (18 percent of GDP), virtually unchanged from the level of end-December 1996. At end-June, some US$9.1 billion of foreign currency debt was short term, on an original maturity basis, while another US$2.6 billion could be considered short-term on a residual maturity basis9, resulting in total short-term obligations of US$11.7 billion (9 percent of GDP) between mid-1997 and mid-1998. While it is likely that the vast majority of short-term debt would be rolled over or replaced by other short-term debt obligations, gross usable reserves cover a little over 50 percent of this obligation and net reserve cover is only around half this amount (Table 20).

Table 21.

Comparison of Official and BIS Data

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Sources: South African Reserve Bank; and Bank for International Settlements, various publications.

270. Official data and those reported by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) appear to be broadly consistent, recognizing the limited coverage of the latter (Table 21).The BIS data indicate that the foreign and domestic currency obligations to reporting banks amounted to US$20.4 billion at end-1996, at which time the official statistics suggested total external debt of US$32.9 billion. This difference is likely to reflect blocked funds, and liabilities to non-BIS reporting banks and other nonresident sources. At end-June 1997, BIS-reporting banks claims had risen to US$23.3 billion, of which US$3.6 billion were international securities. At that time, official data suggested that foreign banks held US$15.5 billion of South Africa’s total foreign currency debt of $23.4 billion—however, information on bank holdings of the US$4.2 billion of foreign currency bearer bonds and of rand-denominated bonds was not available. The bulk of South Africa’s foreign currency debt, US$17.3 billion, was denominated in U.S. dollars at end-June 1997.

271. The long lag in compiling official estimates of rand-denominated external debt is undesirable. However, much of the domestic currency investment of nonresidents occurs through domestic nominee companies, and the SARB has now reached agreement with interested parties to move to semiannual collection and compilation of this data. While residency is not recorded at the time of the original purchase of securities, residency status is recorded when debt securities are traded on the Bond Exchange of South Africa, even if the trades involve nominee companies. The data are compiled and released by the exchange on a daily basis.10 Between January 1, 1998, and the end of April, 1998, nonresidents purchased R468 billion of bonds while selling R452 billion respectively, resulting in net purchases of bonds through the exchange of R16 billion or a little over US$3 billion.

272. The Quarterly Bulletin includes an annual amortization schedule showing the residual maturity of foreign currency denominated external debt, distinguishing between liabilities on the basis of original maturity and by economic sector of the debtor (Table 22). OECD and BIS data on the maturity structure of South Africa’s total external debt appear broadly consistent with the official data (Table 23). Note that while no official data exist on the maturity structure of domestic currency debt, for the purposes of this exercise it has been assumed that emigrants’ blocked funds are long-term debt and that all other domestic currency debt is short term.

Table 22.

Maturity Structure of South Africa’s External Debt, by Denomination

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Source; South African Reserve Bank, Quarterly Bulletin, March 1998.

Liabilities with an original maturity of less than one year.

Liabilities with an original maturity of more than one year.

Maturities of the year 2003 and after.

Including blocked and freely transferable funds but excluding equity.

Table 23.

Maturity Structure of External Debt

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Sources: SARB—Quarterly Bulletin, March 1998; BIS—The Maturity, Sectoral and National Distribution of International Bank Lending, First Half 1997; OECD, External Debt Statistics, 1997.

End-June 1997 foreign currency debt plus end-December 1996 rand-denominated debt. Foreign currency debt is recorded by residual maturity. Domestic currency debt is assumed to be long term in the case of emigrants’ blocked funds and short term for bond holdings.

End-December 1996, original maturity.

End-June 1997, original maturity—note that the BIS data is simply debt held by banks.

Includes emigrants’ blocked funds.

Includes foreign holdings of rand-denominated bonds.

External debt—public sector

273. The foreign currency external debt of South Africa’s public sector was US$8.8 billion at end-June 1997, of which US$1.3 billion is debt remaining under the Final Agreement of the debt standstill. The SARB estimates that, at end-December 1996, nonresidents held around US$7.6 billion in rand-denominated bonds, resulting in total public sector foreign and domestic currency external debt of US$16.4 billion, or about half of total external debt of US$32.9 billion.

274. The public sector also had pre-existing guarantees over US$1 billion of private sector foreign currency external debt at the end of June 1997, although no loan guarantees are currently serviced by government agencies. The authorities have provided staff with an amortization schedule for outstanding government-guaranteed debt which suggests that the bulk of this debt should be amortized within the next three years.

External debt—private sector

Banking sector11

275. Data for the banking sector is collected by a complete enumeration of institutions. Data on the domestic banking sector’s net external position are collected on a monthly basis. The private banking sector is a net debtor to the rest of the world. At December 31, 1997, short-term foreign assets amounted to US$1.7 billion while liabilities were US$9.7 billion (Table 24).12 Note that borrowing from nonresident sources by the banking sector, which is on-lent to the public sector or private sector, is recorded as part of the short-term foreign liabilities of the monetary sector and not as the liabilities of the end-borrower.13

Table 24.

External Assets and Liabilities of the Private Sector 1/

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Sources: South African Reserve Bank; and Fund staff estimates.

Excluding equity.

Includes blocked as well as freely transferable rand deposits.

Estimate.

276. Although the published statistics on the banking sector do not distinguish foreign-owned from domestically-owned resident banks, the data for individual banks are available on the SARB Internet website.14 Foreign owned resident banks are primarily subsidiaries and branches of industrial country banks.

277. The foreign exchange exposure of South African resident banks is relatively limited. Prior to January 1998, the combined holdings of foreign exchange of all authorized dealers in foreign exchange was restricted to US$1.5 billion. Although this limit has been removed, prudential restrictions prevent banks from having net open foreign exposure exceeding15 percent of net qualifying reserves and capital. Banks report their commitments each month, but no distinction is made between resident and nonresident counterparties.

278. The forward market in foreign exchange has grown rapidly since the lifting of sanctions. However, at end-December 1997 the banking sector’s position was well matched, with commitments to purchase under forward contracts almost offset by commitments to sell, at all maturities (Table 25). Gross and net put and call currency options also appeared relatively small, although no data are available on the extent of gross margin calls on derivative transactions.

Table 25.

Forward Foreign Exchange Commitments of the Banking System at End-December 1997

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Source: South African Reserve Bank.

279. The banks are required to mark derivatives to market on a daily basis.15 Unsettled derivative transactions that comply with the recognition criteria issued by the International Accounting Standards Committee16 are reflected in the balance sheets of the banks. Risk-based returns are prepared in line with generally accepted accounting principles and these returns are reconciled with the bank’s balance sheet and income statements, as well as to their individual management accounts. This treatment follows international practice. Forward transactions remain off-balance sheet until the time of delivery, although the change in the market value of options is included.

280. While South Africa uses a standard residency criterion to determine its external obligations, this does not necessarily capture all facets of a country’s vulnerability to short-term capital movements. In particular, the experience in a number of Asian countries suggests that the short-term liabilities of the offshore branches and subsidiaries of domestic banks can be a source of considerable pressure even though they are not formally part of the nation’s foreign debt. Gross liabilities of South African controlled banks located abroad is estimated to have been US$27 billion at end-1997. This is likely to overstate total liabilities because of cross claims on parent institutions and banking relationships with other South African residents. Offshore banks also undertake off-balance sheet activities, with the form these activities take and the magnitudes involved required to be reported to the SARB as part of usual supervisory practice.

Nonbank private sector

281. Nonbank private sector debt was about US$6.9 billion, or around one-third of South Africa’s total foreign currency external debt, at end-June 1997. Of this, around US$2.8 billion was short term (on a residual maturity basis), and about US$2.4 billion of the latter amount was trade finance.

282. As noted above, the experience of the Asian crisis suggests that there is benefit in looking beyond traditional measures of foreign debt when considering a country’s risk exposure.

283. While comprehensive data exist on corporate external-debt exposures, no official data exist on the extent to which these are guaranteed by the banking system. Nor are official data available on the extent to which foreign currency loans have call options that are likely to change their character. Similarly, little data are available on the off-balance sheet operations of the corporate sector. While large firms with dedicated treasury units are likely to mark derivatives to market on a daily basis, no data exist on the magnitude of derivative transactions in the nonbank sector, nor on the treatment adopted by firms in general between financial reporting periods. For reporting dates, the authorities advise that unrealized gains and losses should be included in the firms’ income statements.

284. South Africa does not publish data on the liabilities of foreign subsidiaries of nonfinancial private sector firms. However, exchange control regulations require that all firms with offshore branches, subsidiaries, offices or joint ventures, submit financial statements on these operations to the Exchange Control Department (ECD) of the SARB, at least annually. Corporate entities which have subsidiaries abroad may expand such activities without ECD approval provided that expansion is financed by foreign borrowing (with no recourse to, or guarantee from, the parent) or by retained profits, although the parent is required to provide ECD with the proposed plans at an early stage. If the foreign borrowing is to be supported by a guarantee from the parent company, ECD must give prior approval. The application requires that ECD be advised of denomination, amount, interest rate, terms, etc., of the borrowing. Moreover, if the guarantor is subsequently required to service the loan, funds may only be remitted with ECD’s prior approval. As a practical matter, this means that ECD has access to data which, if collated, would provide information on the extent to which offshore subsidiaries of the nonfinancial sector were creating a contingent liability on South Africa. Similarly, given that prior permission is always required before a South African resident can borrow abroad, and loans for any purpose—other than trade—have to indicate whether the loan is guaranteed by a South African resident bank, the ECD potentially has available to it comprehensive data on the extent to which corporate external debt is guaranteed by the banking system. This suggests that use of the data available to the existence ECD could go some way to filling in the remaining gaps in the overall picture of South Africa’s external exposure.

D. Conclusions and Recommendations

285. Reserves are unencumbered and rose significantly between the end of 1996 and May 1998. However, as has been the case for some time, the major source of vulnerability for South Africa can be traced to the large NOFP of the Reserve Bank, which amounted to US$17.9 billion at the end of May. The maintenance of a high NOFP requires interest rates to be higher than would otherwise be the case, entails potential quasi-fiscal losses, and risks undermining the credibility of monetary and exchange rate policy.

286. On the basis of available information, South Africa’s external debt position appears relatively sound. Total external debt remains moderate as a share of GDP while foreign currency debt has declined to below 20 percent of GDP. Total external debt—both domestic and foreign currency denominated—has remained relatively stable during the 1990s, varying between 22 percent and 26 percent of GDP. However, short-term debt and maturing medium-term debt remain high relative to gross official reserves.

287. Whatever their other costs, the existence of exchange controls on residents (and their associated documentation) have been helpful in allowing the authorities to develop comprehensive and high quality data on foreign liabilities. In discussions with the Fund staff, the authorities noted that the challenge was now to ensure that the quality of data is maintained in the face of further capital control relaxation and eventual removal.

288. The timeliness of data collections offers room for improvement. While data on international reserves are currently published monthly, as required by the SDDS, transparency would be improved by adopting the SDDS’s recommendation that data be published on a weekly basis. It would also be desirable, at a minimum, to align the periodicity of collections of rand-denominated debt with that of the semi-annual compilation of foreign currency debt in order to provide a more complete picture of foreign debt obligations. Ideally, the compilation of comprehensive debt statistics would be done on a quarterly basis.

289. The reporting of debt on a residual maturity basis is welcomed, but it would also be worthwhile for the authorities to consider whether it is possible to collect data on contingent liabilities accruing to various sectors of the economy, and on the extent of contingencies (or acceleration clauses) in debt contracts that could allow long-term debt to be converted to short-term debt in the event of financial or exchange pressures.

290. The authorities also acknowledge that existing data have some gaps due to the difficulties in reconciling stocks and flows, the difficulty of valuing intangible nonfinancial assets, and the potential omission of companies with foreign exchange transactions, assets and liabilities from the regular surveys.

291. Finally, it also seems desirable to attempt to periodically integrate available data on the activities of offshore subsidiaries of South African resident financial and nonfinancial enterprises with the existing data on the external obligations of residents to develop a broader measure of foreign exchange exposure. Collecting data on nonresident holdings of South African equities would also help in this regard.

APPENDIX: Exchange Controls17

Comprehensive exchange controls were introduced in South Africa in 1961 to contain the capital outflows that followed the “Sharpeville massacre.” While restrictions on nonresidents were eliminated in the early 1980s, restrictions were maintained on residents because of concerns about the impact on the exchange rate, real estate and stock markets in the event that residents chose to transfer significant funds out of South Africa, although a more liberal attitude prevailed toward approving applications by local firms to borrow and make certain types of investments abroad.

Capital controls were subsequently reimposed in August 1985 in response to a combination of adverse economic developments, an intensification of political pressures, and the imposition of international financial sanctions. Foreign debt had reached an estimated US$23 billion, almost 43 percent of GDP, and South Africa’s ability to meet the principal and interest payments falling due was severely curtailed. On August 28, 1985 the authorities declared a debt moratorium (“standstill”). Its initial impact was to freeze all debt repayments but the end-result was a freeze on repayments of private debt to foreign commercial banks under the then existing terms.18 As a result of negotiations with the major foreign creditors, the maturity structure of the existing debt was lengthened.19 Around US$2.6 billion of renegotiated debt was still outstanding on June 30, 1997 although this is scheduled to be completely amortized by August 2001.

From 1985, nonresidents were subject to controls, including in the form of a dual exchange rate system. The Commercial Rand was used for foreign trade, authorized capital transfers and current payments including remittance of dividends and interest payments. The Financial Rand was used for financial transactions by nonresidents and outward capital transfers by residents and emigrants. Controls over residents were extensive and covered both capital and current transactions, while emigrants were subject to limits on the amount they could transfer out of South Africa upon departure, with any funds in excess of these limits “blocked” from leaving.

This regime of controls remained broadly unchanged until the election of the Government of National Unity in 1994. An important element of the policy framework of the new government was the removal of exchange controls. However, its room for maneuver was restricted by the large size of potential capital outflows if institutional investors were to diversify their portfolio with foreign assets and if emigrants were able to gain access to previously “blocked” funds. These concerns were exacerbated by South Africa’s low level of international reserves and the large NOFP.

As a result, the authorities adopted a pragmatic approach to the removal of exchange controls, indicating that they would be phased out as conditions allowed. The first major step occurred in March 1995 with the abolition of the financial rand mechanism and, with it, most of the controls on nonresidents. The net effect of this has been that nonresidents are free to invest anywhere, to introduce and repatriate funds at will, and to hold rand-denominated deposits.

The government has subsequently eased controls on residents, allowing an increasing array of transactions, with each subject to a cap. These caps have been progressively raised over time to the point where for many, mainly current account, transactions they have become nonbinding or have been abolished. However, some form of restrictions still apply to most capital account transactions by residents.

In particular, exchange control regulations require that prior approval be sought for foreign borrowing. As part of the process, applicants must submit information on the purpose, terms and conditions of the loan, including an amortization schedule. While residents have greater freedom to invest abroad or in foreign currency deposits in South Africa, they must also receive prior permission from the ECD (and have status of taxpayer in good standing from the SA Revenue Service) before transferring capital overseas. Firms wishing to invest overseas must support their applications by setting out the benefits to South Africa from the investment. All sales of foreign exchange over R40,000 must, at a minimum, be reported to the ECD, even if this amount is less than the current cap on the transaction being undertaken.

1

The amount of capital that could be transferred from South Africa on emigration has been subject to a cap—assets in excess of these limits have been forced to remain in South Africa and comprise part of external debt. This cap was raised to Rl million (almost US$200,000) in early March 1998.

2

A brief history of South Africa’s experience of exchange controls is contained in the Appendix.

3

It is expected that South Africa will switch to treating only official reserves as reserve assets, consistent with the treatment proposed in the Fifth Edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5), when the compilation and presentation of external accounts is made BPM5-consistent in early 1999.

4

The SDDS recommends, however, that reserves be published weekly.

5

National definition. If obligations to the IMF are also excluded, net official reserves were US$0.3 billion lower on May 30, 1998 and were US$0.4 billion lower on December 31, 1997.

6

Less than US$35 million of official reserves is actually unavailable, comprising amounts lodged with international agencies as subscriptions or deposits, and a further US$2 million is in the form of fully collateralized gold loans to jewelers.

7

Annual Report, 1997, Banking Supervision Department, SARB, forthcoming, page 10.

8

The Fifth Census of Foreign Transactions, Liabilities and Assets, December 31, 1995, South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin, March 1998.

9

Around US$1.2 billion of which was due in the second half of 1997.

10

Nonresident purchases of equity on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange are also recorded and released on a daily basis.

11

For a review of the banking system and the regulatory and supervisory framework in South Africa, see Section IV.

12

Note that this data does not line up exactly with the BIS-reporting-banks data on liabilities of South African banks as part of lending of commercial foreign banks to South Africa is lending to the SARB.

13

Fifth Census, pages 4–5.

15

This also applies to members of the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) and professional fund managers.

16

Contained in “Framework for the Preparation and Presentation of Financial Accounts.”

17

This section draws on chapter 5, “Capital Liberalization Strategy” of South Africa—Selected Issues (SM/97/162, 6/24/97), and Chapter 2, “Historical Background” of the SARB Exchange Control Manual. This later document is available on the SARB website at: http://www.resbank.co.za.

18

There is some public debt included under the standstill due to loans incurred in the name of private banks which were on-lent to public corporations.

19

A detailed description of the debt standstill is contained in Chapter 6, “The Debt Standstill” of the SARB Exchange Control Manual