Front Matter Page

©1998 International Monetary Fund

February 1998

IMF Staff Country Report No. 98/16

Republic of Tajikistan: Recent Economic Developments

This Recent Economic Developments report on the Republic of Tajikistan was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. As such, the views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan or the Executive Board of the IMF.

International Monetary Fund

Washington, D.C.

Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

Recent Economic Developments

Prepared by a staff team consisting of Mr. T. Saavalainen (Head), Mr. J. Wakeman-Linn, Mr. J. Ma, Mr. D. McGettigan (all EURII), Mr. L. Nielsen (PDR) and Mr. H. Young (FAD)

Approved by European II Department

December 5, 1997

Contents

• I. Overview

  • A. Country Profile

  • B. Political Developments

  • C. The First Reform Effort

  • D. A Renewed Period of Violence

  • E. A New Start

• II. Output, Employment, Prices and Wages 1995-97

  • A. Total Output

    • Sectoral developments

    • Agriculture

    • Industry

    • Energy and mineral sectors

  • B. Labor Market Developments

  • C. Price Developments

  • D. Wage Developments

• III. Public Finance

  • A. Structure of Government

  • B. Developments Through 1995 and the Currency Conversion

  • C. Revenue Developments During 1995-97

  • D. Expenditure Developments During 1995-97

  • E. The Budget Deficit and Financing

• IV. Money and Credit in 1995-97

  • A. The Banking System

  • B. Monetary Aggregates

  • C. Velocity and Money Multiplier

  • D. Interest Rates

  • E. Monetary Policy Instruments

  • F. Banking Regulation and Supervision

  • G. Settlements System

• V. External Sector Developments

  • A. Balance of Payments Developments During 1995-97

  • B. Direction of Trade

  • C. External Debt

  • D. Foreign Direct Investment

  • E. Trade Policies

  • F. Exchange Rate Developments

• VI. Structural Reform

  • A. Price Liberalization

  • B. Exchange and Trade Liberalization

  • C. Enterprise Privatization

  • D. Land Reform

  • E. Financial Sector Reform

  • F. Institutional and Legal Reform

• Appendices

  • I. Survey of Reporting of Main Statistical Indicators

  • II. Tax Summary as of July 1, 1997

• Tables

  • 1. Nominal and Real GDP, 1990-97

  • 2. Nominal GDP by Sector of Origin, 1993-97

  • 3. Production and Yield of Major Agriculture Crops, 1985-96

  • 4. Agriculture Production, 1980-96

  • 5. Animal Husbandry, 1985-96

  • 6. Production of Meat, Milk, and Eggs, 1985-96

  • 7. Production by Type of Farm, 1985-96

  • 8a. Allocation of Agricultural Land in 1995

  • 8b. Allocation of Agricultural Land in 1996

  • 9. Industrial Output by Sector at Constant Prices, 1980-96

  • 10. Selected Indicators of Industrial Production, 1985-96

  • 11. Electricity Consumption and Output, 1980-96

  • 12. Fuel Consumption, 1991-97

  • 13. Indices of Real GDP, Employment and Energy Consumption, 1990-96

  • 14. Labor Resources and Employment, 1985-96

  • 15. Registered Unemployment, 1994-97

  • 16. Employment by Sector of Economy, 1985-96

  • 17. Sectoral Output, Employment and Productivity, 1991-96

  • 18. Consumer Price Inflation, 1995-97

  • 19. Wholesale Price Inflation—Selected Categories, 1995-97

  • 20. Monthly Wages, 1995-97

  • 21. Average Monthly Wages by Sector, 1985-96

  • 22. Monthly Wage Bill and Wage Disbursements, 1995-97

  • 23. State Budget by Economic Classification of Expenditures and Revenues, Cash Basis, 1992-97

  • 24. State Budget by Authorities’ Classification of Revenues and Expenditures, Cash Basis, 1992-97

  • 25. State Budget by Authorities’ Classification of Revenues and Expenditures, Cash Basis, 1992-97

  • 26. Operations of the Pension Fund, 1992-95

  • 27. Operations of the Employment Fund, 1992-95

  • 28. Operations of the Social Insurance Fund, 1993-95

  • 29. Consolidated Operations of the General Government, 1992-95

  • 30. State Budget by Economic Classification, Quarterly, Cash Basis, 1996-97

  • 31. Commercial Banks as of October 1, 1997

  • 32. Credit of the Banking System, 1996-97

  • 33. NBT’s Balance Sheet

  • 34. Monetary Survey

  • 35. Annual Interest Rates, 1996-97

  • 36. Reserve Requirements, 1991-97

  • 37. Capital Assets and Liquid Asset Ratios as of September 1, 1997

  • 38. Balance of Payments

  • 39. Quarterly Balance of Payments for 1996 and 1997

  • 40. Exports by Products

  • 41. Imports by Products

  • 42. Trade Indices

  • 43. Destination of Exports

  • 44. Origin of Imports

  • 45. External Debt

  • 46. External Debt Service

  • 47. Exchange Rate and U.S. Dollar Wages, 1993-97

• Figures

  • 1. Macroeconomic Indicators, 1992-96

  • 2. GDP, 1991-97

  • 3. Consumer and Wholesale Price Indices, 1994-97

  • 4. Real Wages and Dollar Wage, 1995-97

  • 5. State Budget, 1992-97

  • 6. Money and Credit, 1995-97

  • 7. Velocity and Money Multipliers, 1995-97

  • 8. Currency, Inflation, and Interest Rates, 1995-97

  • 9. External Sector Indicators

  • 10. Nominal and Real Exchange Rates Since Currency Reform

• Text Boxes

  • Box 1 - State Revenue Sharing in Tajikistan

• Text Tables

  • T1. Compliance with Prudential Ratios by Major Commercial Banks