This Selected Issues paper on Sweden examines developments in the government structural balance. The paper identifies the respective contributions of cyclical and structural factors in the present fiscal consolidation phase. It reviews recent developments and the medium-term fiscal outlook. The paper presents estimates of the structural and cyclical components of the government financial balance. The factors responsible for the fiscal improvement anticipated over the medium term are analyzed. The paper also analyzes the medium-term outlook for public debt, with particular attention to the sensitivity of debt dynamics to different macroeconomic conditions.

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper on Sweden examines developments in the government structural balance. The paper identifies the respective contributions of cyclical and structural factors in the present fiscal consolidation phase. It reviews recent developments and the medium-term fiscal outlook. The paper presents estimates of the structural and cyclical components of the government financial balance. The factors responsible for the fiscal improvement anticipated over the medium term are analyzed. The paper also analyzes the medium-term outlook for public debt, with particular attention to the sensitivity of debt dynamics to different macroeconomic conditions.

IV. Is The exchange rate a shock absorber? the case of Sweden14

A. Introduction

62. The final stages of European Monetary Unification (EMU) have motivated research into the pros and cons of adopting a common currency. The biggest change occurring under a currency union is the loss of the exchange rate as an instrument of macroeconomic adjustment. According to the literature, a single currency would reduce transactions and information costs but could prove costly in the face of asymmetric shocks or price rigidities (Mundell 1961). Moreover, the costs of a single currency would be smaller if labor and capital were sufficiently mobile and the trade regime was open (McKinnon 1963).

63. In evaluating the costs of EMU, one area of research has focused on the extent of asymmetries between national shocks. The idea behind this analysis is that the existence of asymmetries raises the cost of relinquishing the exchange rate as a shock absorber. Therefore, to evaluate EMU appropriately, it is important to understand the magnitude of asymmetric shocks across European economies. Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1992a and 1992b) develop this analysis and distinguish demand and supply shocks by assuming that demand shocks have no long-run effect on output whereas supply shocks have permanent effects. They correlate both types of shocks across European countries to identify the degree of asymmetry and find that the sub-group of countries Austria, France, Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium has the highest correlations with Germany whereas Sweden is in the middle rank of countries with Portugal, Italy and Finland. Bayoumi and Thomas (1995) conduct a similar analysis except that they restrict supply shocks to have no long-run effect on the real exchange rate under the assumption that countries produce similar goods. In their analysis, price responses to demand shocks were stronger for later entrants to the European Union than for initial members, on account of greater real exchange rate flexibility over most of the EMS period.

64. A number of authors have argued that a two-variable VAR system of the type employed by Bayoumi and Eichengreen, and Bayoumi and Thomas is unable to distinguish between real shocks and nominal shocks. This is important in the context of EMU because if shocks identified as demand shocks in the two-variable VAR analysis are really nominal shocks, the cost of losing the exchange rate as an instrument of macroeconomic adjustment is overstated. To account for this drawback a three-variable VAR system has been proposed to identify aggregate demand, aggregate supply and nominal shocks separately. Clarida and Gali (1994) provide an example of this analysis. In their setup, demand and nominal shocks are assumed only to have a temporary effect on relative output and the nominal shock is assumed only to have a temporary effect on the real exchange rate. A similar identification system proposed by Canzoneri et al. (1996) substitutes an assumption about government consumption for the assumption regarding the real exchange rate. In their analysis, the nominal shock is only assumed to have a temporary effect on real government consumption.

65. The purpose of this paper is to consider both identification schemes using Swedish data to discover whether output and real exchange rate innovations are driven by real or nominal shocks. This finding will help in evaluating the cost for Sweden of giving up the exchange rate as an instrument of macroeconomic policy. Previous work using Swedish data has focused on the two-variable decomposition of errors into permanent and temporary shocks. Using this framework, Bergman (1996) finds that over 90 percent of the error variance in output is the result of supply shocks whereas only 20 percent of the error variance of inflation is due to supply shocks.

66. Clarida and Gali (1994) in an analysis of output and real exchange rate relationships between the United States and Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada also find that roughly 90 percent of output innovations can be attributed to real shocks. Moreover, roughly 60 percent of innovations to the real exchange rate can be attributed to real shocks. They infer from this that real shocks are important in explaining real exchange rate volatility. This is consistent with the findings of Campbell and Clarida (1987) and Stockman (1988). Canzoneri at al. (1996) also find that supply and demand shocks account for almost all of the variation in relative output innovations between Germany and Austria, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. However, they find that nominal shocks account for most of the variation in the real exchange rate and argue that these European countries will not be adversely affected by the introduction of a common European monetary policy because their exchange rates have not behaved as shock absorbers since the breakup of the Bretton Woods system.

B. Theoretical Considerations

67. The Mundell-Flemming model (MF model in the rest of the paper) provides the theoretical foundation for restrictions used in this analysis to identify different kinds of shocks. The key assumptions of the MF model are (1) sticky prices and output adjustment and (2) national outputs that are imperfect substitutes in consumption. Shocks in the MF model can be categorized as aggregate supply shocks ∊f, aggregate demand shocks ed and nominal shocks ef. A positive supply shock creates an excess supply of home goods resulting in a depreciation of the real exchange rate. Over time, output increases to a higher long-run level and the real exchange rate remains depreciated. A positive demand shock creates excess demand for home output resulting in an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a short-run increase in output. Over time, output returns to its long-run level but the real exchange rate remains appreciated. A positive nominal shock lowers the home interest rate and leads to a depreciation of the real exchange rate and a short-run increase in output. Over time, both output and the real exchange rate-return to their initial levels.

68. To identify these different shocks, two approaches have generally been followed. Some researchers have constructed structural models of the economy and have simulated the models using various assumptions about the nature of supply and demand shocks. However, one difficulty with this approach is that classifying the residuals of a structural model into real demand and supply and nominal shocks is not straightforward. An alternative approach that has recently become popular is to impose a set of parsimonious statistical restrictions which embody the theoretical implications of a particular model. This alternative approach is adopted in this paper.

69. Following Clarida and Gali (1994) and Canzoneri et al. (1996), we estimate two three-variable VAR systems using Swedish data. The first system includes relative output, the real exchange rate and the relative price level and imposes the assumptions that real demand shocks and nominal shocks have no long-run effect on the level of output and nominal shocks have no long-run effect on the real exchange rate. The second system includes relative output, the real exchange rate and relative government expenditure on goods and services. In this system, we assume that real demand shocks and nominal shocks have no long-run effect on the level of output and nominal shocks have no long-run effect on the real exchange rate and on government consumption.

70. These identifying restrictions differ in their identification of the nominal shock. The assumption that nominal shocks have no effect on the exchange rate allows us to distinguish the effects of nominal shocks on the exchange rate from demand shocks which are allowed to have a permanent effect. Assuming instead that nominal shocks have no effect on government consumption allows a distinction between nominal and real shocks provided that demand shocks have a permanent effect on government consumption. Before implementing the econometric models, we shall first describe the variables used in the analysis and determine whether the systems should be estimated in log levels or log first differences.

C. Data Description

71. In this analysis, we are only interested in relative or asymmetric shocks because common shocks do not require any adjustment in the real exchange rate.15 We therefore define the relative output and government consumption variables as the Swedish real GDP (government consumption) minus a trade weighted average of foreign output (government consumption) levels valued at 1985 PPP exchange rates.16 The real exchange rate is constructed using bilateral exchange rates vis-a-vis the foreign countries using the same trade weights. The relative price level is defined as the Swedish CPI minus a trade weighted average of foreign CPIs.

72. The next step is to determine the time series properties of the variables entering the VAR specifications. The top panel of Chart 1 shows that Swedish relative output fell almost continuously between the early 1980s and the early 1990s.17 Since 1993, its level has stabilized. Moreover, the real exchange rate in the center panel indicates that periodic devaluations of the Swedish krona took place in the early 1980s and early 1990s to maintain competitiveness. The final panel shows the rise in Sweden’s relative CPI over time which necessitated the repeated devaluations shown in the center panel.

Chart 1.
Chart 1.

Sweden: Relative Output, Real Exchange Rate, and the Relative Price Level

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1997, 096; 10.5089/9781451835847.002.A004

Sources: Staff estimates.

73. It is clear therefore that with the possible exception of the real exchange rate, the variables have trended over time and therefore it is necessary to determine whether the variables are stationary around stochastic or deterministic trends. Table 1 presents a number of univariate stationarity tests for the data. The table indicates that the null hypothesis of a unit root for the relative output, government consumption and price variables and the real exchange rate cannot be rejected against the alternative hypothesis of stationarity around a deterministic trend. Both the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and the Phillips-Perron test statistics are smaller than the 10 percent critical value for the variables. To confirm that the variables are first difference stationary, test statistics for the first differences of the variables were computed. In this case the test statistics are greater than their respective 10 percent critical values, confirming that the variables are first difference stationary.

Table 1.

Sweden: Unit Root Tests 1/

article image

See text for data definitions. An asterisk denotes a variable or test statistic that is significant at the 10 percent level.

D. Implementation of the Methodology

74. The log of relative output, the log of the real exchange rate and the log of relative CPIs are the three variables in the first system. Using first differences we assume that the vector

Δxt=[Δyt-Δyt*,ΔRERt,Δpt-Δpt*

has a structural interpretation given by:

ΔXt=C(L)Σt

where L is the lag operator and εt=[εa, εd, εf] is a vector of structural shocks; εs, is the aggregate supply shock, εs is the aggregate demand shock and εs is the aggregate nominal shock. The errors are serially uncorrelated and have a variance-covariance matrix normalized to the identity matrix.

75. The vector of structural shocks is not observed directly. The trick is to recover εt from an estimate of the moving-average representation:

ΔXt=A(L)ut

where the first matrix in the polynomial A(L) is the identity matrix and the disturbance vector ut has an estimated covariance matrix Σ.

76. Equations 1 and 2 imply a linear relationship between εt and ut

ut=C0Σt

77. It is necessary to identify the 3x3 matrix C0 to be able to recover the vector of structural shocks et from the estimated disturbance vector u,. The symmetric matrix S = C0C0’ imposes six of the nine restrictions that are required and therefore we only need three more identifying restrictions. Blanchard and Quah (1989) suggest that we can use economic theory to impose these restrictions. Economic theory has a number of implications regarding the long-run behavior of variables in response to shocks and therefore imposing these long-run restrictions allows us to properly identify the shocks.

78. The long-run representation of equation (1) can be written as

[ΔRERtΔCPItΔyt]=[C21(1)C31(1)C11(1)C22(1)C32(1)C12(1)C23(1)C33(1)C13(1)][ϵdϵfϵs]

where C(l) = C0 + C1+ … is the long-run effect of e, on AX,.

79. Using Clarida and Gali’s (1994) identifying assumptions, the long-run restrictions imposed on the model are C12=0, C13=0, and C23=0. These restrictions make the matrix C(l) upper triangular and we can use this fact to recover C0.

E. Estimation Results

80. This section presents results from the empirical implementation of the structural VAR analysis developed in the previous section. We examine the impulse responses of each of the variables to a unit positive innovation in each of the fundamental shocks using a variety of specifications and present variance decompositions of the forecast errors based on the VAR analysis.

81. The unrestricted VARs were estimated over the period 1979:1-1995:4 with six lags of each variable in each of the three equations. We performed a series of likelihood ratio tests for higher order lags but the null hypothesis that higher order lags in the VAR are insignificant could not be rejected at conventional levels of significance.

82. We initially conducted an analysis with a VAR system of relative outputs, relative CPIs and the real exchange rate. The impulse responses of the levels of the explanatory variables are presented in Chart 2. The top panel shows that supply shocks account for most of the changes in relative outputs and have permanent effects. Demand and nominal shocks have smaller impact effects on relative outputs and asymptote to zero. The center panel shows that supply shocks are not well identified in the real exchange rate equation because supply shocks lead to a long-run appreciation of the real exchange rate, whereas we would expect the exchange rate to depreciate in the long-run in response to a positive supply shock. However, Clarida and Gali (1994) find a similar impulse response profile for the U.S.-Canadian real exchange rate and for the U.S.-Japan real exchange rate. Moreover, Bayoumi and Thomas (1995) make the identifying assumption that supply shocks have no long-run effect on the real exchange rate. In contrast, the demand shock is well specified in the model because it leads to a long-run appreciation of the real exchange rate. Nominal shocks lead to an initial depreciation of the exchange rate which is subsequently reversed as the exchange rate appreciates toward its trend level. The impulse responses of relative prices also conform to the MF model; demand and nominal shocks have permanent positive effects on the price level while supply shocks have a permanent negative effect.

Chart 2.
Chart 2.

Sweden: Impulse Responses Using Clarida and Gali’s Identifying Restrictions

(Relative output, real exchange rate, and relative price level; In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1997, 096; 10.5089/9781451835847.002.A004

Sources: Staff estimates.

83. Chart 3 presents impulse responses of the levels of an alternative system of explanatory variables with relative government consumption used in place of the relative price variable. The same long-run identification scheme is used as in the previous case. The impulse responses for the relative output variable and the real exchange rate are comparable to the previous case. However, the impulse responses for the relative government consumption variable give the implausible result that nominal shocks have strong and permanent effects on relative government consumption. This implication can be avoided by imposing that nominal shocks have no long-run effect on relative government consumption and allowing the impulse response of the real exchange rate to nominal shocks to be determined by the data (this is the assumption made in the analysis of Canzoneri et al. (1996)). The impulse responses from this formulation shown in Chart 4 indicate that nominal shocks have permanent effects on the real exchange rate which contradicts the basic Mundell-Flemming assumption. It appears therefore that the most satisfactory identifying scheme has relative outputs, relative prices and the real exchange rate as explanatory variables and imposes the restrictions that demand and nominal shocks have only temporary effects on output and nominal shocks have only temporary effects on the real exchange rate. In the next section, we limit our discussion to this specification.

Chart 3
Chart 3

Sweden: Impulse Responses Using Clarida and Gali’s Identifying Restrictions

(Relative output, real exchange rate, and relative government consumption; In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1997, 096; 10.5089/9781451835847.002.A004

Sources: Staff estimates.
Chart 4.
Chart 4.

Sweden: Impulse Responses Using Canzoneri et al’s Identifying Restrictions

(Relative output, relative government consumption, and real exchange rate; in percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1997, 096; 10.5089/9781451835847.002.A004

Sources: Staff estimates.

84. Having discussed impulse responses for a number of alternative specifications, we now turn to the forecast error variance decompositions for the preferred model (Table 2. The table shows for each variable the fraction of the forecast error variance at different forecast horizons which can be attributed to each shock in the model. The variance decomposition for the first difference of relative output is presented in the first panel. The panel shows that supply shocks are the most important factor for variation in the forecast errors of relative output, contributing two-thirds of the variance in the first period and roughly half of the variance subsequently. The remainder of the variance is attributable to demand and nominal shocks in comparable quantities. Other studies also attribute most of the movements in relative outputs to supply shocks. Canzoneri et al. (1996) find that supply shocks account for two thirds of the forecast error variance of relative outputs between Germany and Austria, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Chadha and Prasad (1996) document a similar result for the relative output of Japan versus the other G-7 countries and Clarida and Gali (1994) document a similar result for the relative output of the United States with Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada.

Table 2.

Sweden: Forecast Error Variance Decompositions for Baseline Specification

(All variables in logarithmic first differences)

article image
Notes: The forecast error variance decompositions are for the changes in each variable (i.e., first differences of log levels). These decompositions indicate the proportion of the variance of the k-period ahead forecast error that is attributable to each shock. The real effective exchange rate is computed using trade weights and CPIs for partner countries.

85. Forecast error variance decompositions for changes in the real exchange rate are presented in the second panel of Table 2. In this case, supply shocks play a very weak role in explaining movements in the real exchange rate, accounting for only 10 percent of the forecast error variance. Demand and nominal shocks are the main driving forces of this variable accounting for one half and one third of the forecast error variance, respectively. The importance of demand shocks in accounting for real exchange rate movements is also found in the analysis of Clarida and Gali (1994) and leads them to conclude that real shocks have an important role in explaining real exchange rate volatility over the post-Bretton Woods period. In contrast, Canzoneri et al. (1996) find that real shocks account for only 25 percent of the forecast-error variance of the real exchange rates of the core EMU countries, with demand shocks accounting for less than 20 percent. Using this result they argue that the loss of the exchange rate as a shock absorber in the proposed EMU monetary framework will not be great for these countries. Finally, forecast error variance decompositions for relative inflation rates in the third panel of Table 2 show that demand, supply and nominal shocks account for roughly an equal portion of the forecast error variance.18

86. The previous comparison between Canzoneri et al.’s results for the core EMU countries and this paper’s results for Sweden is not entirely appropriate because the two papers use different identifying assumptions. In order to make the comparison more robust, forecast error variance decompositions were obtained for Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands using the preferred identifying assumptions reported in this paper. The forecast error decompositions of the real exchange rate presented in Tables 3 and 4 indicate that demand shocks account for roughly the same fraction of real exchange rate movements as in Canzoneri et al.’s analysis.19 However, supply shocks account for a significantly higher proportion. This suggests that the role of real shocks in influencing real exchange rate movements in the core EMU countries (with the exception of the Netherlands) is comparable to Sweden, so that losing the exchange rate as a shock absorber is no less costly for the core EMU countries than for Sweden.

Table 3.

Forecast Error Variance Decompositions for Baseline Specification for Austria and Belgium

(All variables in logarithmic first differences)

article image
Notes: The forecast error variance decompositions are for the changes in each variable (i.e., first differences of log levels). These decompositions indicate the proportion of the variance of the k-period ahead forecast error that is attributable to each shock. The real effective exchange rate is computed using trade weights and CPIs for partner countries.
Table 4.

Forecast Error Variance Decompositions for Baseline Specification for France and the Netherlands

(all variables in logarithmic first differences)

article image
Notes: The forecast error variance decompositions are for the changes in each variable (i.e., first differences of log levels). These decompositions indicate the proportion of the variance of the k-period ahead forecast error that is attributable to each shock. The real effective exchange rate is computed using trade weights and CPIs for partner countries.

87. Indeed, given that demand shocks account for a much greater fraction of the forecast errors in the real exchange rate equation for Sweden than for the other countries, it could be argued that Sweden has less to lose from joining EMU from the start than many of the core countries. If we agree with Cukierman (1996) that these demand shocks were associated with Swedish aggregate demand policies that were too loose, one way of alleviating the need for large real exchange rate movements in the future would be to strengthen domestic demand management policies and forcing the wage bargaining system to take account of competitive pressures.20

F. Conclusion

88. The results of this analysis suggest that real shocks play an important role in real exchange rate movements in Sweden. Real shocks account for over 60 percent of the forecast error variance of the real exchange rate in Sweden. On the surface this result suggests that the net benefit of an early EMU entry for Sweden may not be self evident. However, this paper has also found that real shocks account for a comparable fraction of the forecast error variance of the real exchange rates in a number of core EMU countries. Moreover, demand shocks account for a significantly higher fraction of real shocks in Sweden compared to the other core EMU countries. Therefore, to the extent that the demand shocks of the 1980s were the result of fairly loose aggregate demand policies in Sweden, an ambitious reform of fiscal and labor market policies would make the real exchange rate less susceptible to domestic shocks. These types of reforms would alleviate the cost of relinquishing the exchange rate as an instrument of macroeconomic adjustment and make EMU entry more acceptable.

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  • Thomas, A. “The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Sweden,” mimeo, IMF, July 1997.

14

“Prepared by Alun Thomas.

15

There is now a sizeable literature which argues that it is necessary to consider the propagation of symmetric shocks in addition to the nature of asymmetric shocks before making a judgment on the net benefits of a common currency area. See, for example, the work of Rummell (1996). For Sweden, Thomas (1997) finds that the transmission of monetary policy actions is comparable to the United Kingdom, France and Germany and, therefore, the country would not be adversely affected by symmetric shocks in a common currency area.

16

The foreign countries represent the 15 most important currencies in Swedish foreign trade and include Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States.

17

The time period covered in this analysis spans 1979:1 to 1995:4 and was determined by the availability of data used to construct the trade weighted foreign GDP aggregate. Over most of this period, the Swedish krona was pegged to the 15 most important currencies in Swedish foreign trade.

18

It could be argued that the importance of real shocks have declined since Sweden targeted its exchange rate against the ECU in 1991. We, therefore, performed the analysis over the 1991–95 period using two lags of each explanatory variable. The results were comparable to those documented in this paper in that real shocks accounted for a large fraction of the forecast error variance of the real exchange rate.

19

The full results are available from the author on request.

20

Cukierman (1996) argues that relatively expansionary aggregate demand policies in the 1980s created a positive inflation differential between Sweden and its trading partners which necessitated periodic devaluations to maintain Swedish competitiveness.

Sweden: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund
  • View in gallery

    Sweden: Relative Output, Real Exchange Rate, and the Relative Price Level

  • View in gallery

    Sweden: Impulse Responses Using Clarida and Gali’s Identifying Restrictions

    (Relative output, real exchange rate, and relative price level; In percent)

  • View in gallery

    Sweden: Impulse Responses Using Clarida and Gali’s Identifying Restrictions

    (Relative output, real exchange rate, and relative government consumption; In percent)

  • View in gallery

    Sweden: Impulse Responses Using Canzoneri et al’s Identifying Restrictions

    (Relative output, relative government consumption, and real exchange rate; in percent)