Front Matter

Front Matter Page

© 1996 International Monetary Fund

September 1996

IMF Staff Country Report No. 96/93

United States—Recent Economic Developments

This report on recent economic developments in the United States was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. As such, the views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of the United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Selected Issues

Prepared by J. Cole, C. Kramer, M. Leidy, Y. Li, A. Thomas, and C. Towe (all from WHD), and C. Shiells (PDR)

Approved by the Western Hemisphere Department

July 3, 1996

Contents

  • I. Trends in Investment and Saving

    1. Introduction

    2. Principal changes to the NIPA

    3. Investment trends in the post-revision data

    4. Saving trends in the post-revision data

  • Text Tables

  • I. 1. Domestic Investment (Constant 1992 Chain Dollars)

  • 2. Saving and Investment (Post-Revision)

  • Charts

  • I. 1. Trends in Investment

  • 2. Trends in Saving

  • II. Employment Trends

    1. Introduction

    2. Labor market developments

    3. Wage differentials and the sources of job gains

    4. Productivity and costs

  • Text Tables

  • II. 1. Employment and Wage Developments Across One-Digit Industries

  • 2. Employment and Wage Developments Across Two-Digit Industries

  • Charts

  • II. 1. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

  • 2. Employment

  • 3. Regional Unemployment Rate Less the Total Unemployment Rate

  • 4. Full-Time and Part-Time Employment Growth

  • 5. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs in the Nonfarm Business Sector

  • III. The Cyclical Position of the U.S. Economy and Its Relationship with Inflation

    1. Introduction

    2. Estimates of potential output

    3. Estimating the natural rate of unemployment

    4. Determinants of inflation

      1. Phillips curve specification

      2. Phillips curve adjusted for supply factors

      3. Tests of the importance of the natural rate and speed limit effects

    5. Conclusions

  • Text Tables

  • III. 1. Unit Root Tests on Annual Data

  • 2. Determinants of the Components of the Unemployment Rate

  • 3. The Okun Relationship

  • 4. Traditional Phillips Curve Specifications of the Inflation Process

  • 5. Unit Root Tests on Quarterly Data

  • 6. Augmented Phillips Curve Specifications

  • 7. Wage Compensation Equation

  • Charts

  • III. 1. Real GDP and Alternative Measures of the Output Gap

  • 2. Components of the Unemployment Rate

  • 3. CPI and Foreign Costs

  • 4. CPI and Domestic Costs

  • 5. Alternative Phillips Curve Specifications for Inflation Rate

  • 6. Cusum-Squared Statistic

  • 7. Speed Limit Effect

  • IV. Income Distribution and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States

    • 1. Introduction

    • 2. Recent trends in the income distribution

    • 3. Factors affecting the income distribution

    • 4. Empirical analysis of factors affecting income distribution

    • 5. Summary and concluding remarks

    • Appendix

  • Text Tables

  • IV. 1. Hacroeconomic Factors and the Income Distribution

  • 2. Hacroeconomic and Other Factors Affecting the Income Distribution

  • 3. Technology and the Income Distribution

  • Charts

  • IV. 1. Income Distribution Trends

  • 2. Income and Age Demographics

  • 3. Distribution of Income and Consumption

  • 4. Income and Family Structure

  • 5. Actual and Predicted Values Using Historical Macroeconomic Relationships

  • 6. Income Distribution and the Minimum Wage

  • 7. Income Distribution and Technological Investment

  • V. Recent Fiscal Developments in the United States

    1. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993

    2. The Administration’s FY 1996 budget

    3. FY 1997 budget proposals

    4. General government fiscal situation

  • Text Tables

  • V. 1. Administration’s FY 1997 Budget Proposals

  • 2. Alternative Assessments of the Administration’s FY 1997 Budget

  • 3. Congressional and Administration Budget Deficits under May 1996 CBO Assumptions

  • 4. General Government Transactions, National Income Accounts Basis

  • 5. Federal Government Transactions, National Income Accounts Basis

  • 6. State and Local Government Transactions, National Income Accounts Basis

  • Charts

  • 1. Federal Fiscal Indicators

  • 2. Expenditure and Revenue Trends

  • VI. International Trade and Investment Policies

    1. Introduction

    2. The Uruguay Round agreement and the World Trade Organization (WTO)

      1. Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement

      2. Dispute settlement activity in the WTO

    3. Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

    4. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC)

    5. Import policies and measures

    6. Developments under Section 301 and special 301

      1. China

      2. Banana disputes

      3. Korea

      4. Canada

      5. Japan

      6. EU enlargement

    7. Trade preferences for developing countries

    8. Foreign investment

      1. Exon-Florio provision

      2. U.S.-Japan agreement

    9. Other measures and issues

  • VII. Macroeconomic Conditions and Pressures for Protection

    1. Introduction

    2. Use of administered trade actions

    3. Empirical tests

    4. Concluding comments

  • Text Tables

  • VII. 1. Dependent Variable: Total AD and CVD Petitions Per Year

  • Appendix Tables

  • A1. Unit Root Test Results

  • A2. Dependent Variable: Total CVD Petitions Per Year

  • A3. Dependent Variable: Total AD Petitions Per Year

  • A4. Petitions for Antidumping and Countervailing Duties in the United States: 1980-95

  • Charts

  • VII. 1. Unemployment Rate an AD/CVD Petitions

  • VIII. Official Development Assistance

  • Text Tables

  • VIII. 1. Foreign Development Assistance on a Budget Basis

  • 2. ODA by DAC Countries in 1995, Preliminary