Front Matter

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©1996 International Monetary Fund

August 1996

IMF Staff Country Report No. 96/69

Ghana—Selected Issues and Statistical Annex

This report on selected issues and statistical annex on Ghana was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. As such, the views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Ghana or the Executive Board of the IMF.

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International Monetary Fund

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

GHANA

Selected Issues and Statistical Annex

Prepared by a staff team consisting of Mr. M. Nowak (Head-AFR),

Mr. R. Basanti (AFR), Mr. A. Bulíř (AFR), Mr. J. Harnack (AFR),

Mr. S. Rizavi (PDR), and Mr. L. Leigh (EP-AFR)

Approved by the African Department

June 6, 1996

Contents

  • Basic Data

  • Selected Social and Demographic Indicators

  • Selected Issues

    • I. Impact of Cocoa Taxation on Cocoa Supply in Ghana

      • A. Introduction

      • B. Cocoa Production in Ghana: A Review of Recent History

      • C. Taxation of Cocoa in Ghana

        • 1. Political economy of commodity taxation

        • 2. Four potential benefits of commodity taxation

        • 3. Taxation of cocoa in Ghana in the 1990s

      • D. Empirical Analysis of the Cocoa Supply in Ghana

        • 1. Research to date

        • 2. Determinants of cocoa supply in Ghana

        • 3. Empirical results

        • 4. Simulated medium-term effects of producer price changes

      • E. Conclusions

  • Text Tables

    • 1.1 Producer Income, Marketing Cost, and Government Revenue, 1951-96

    • 1.2 Projected and Actual Macroeconomic Developments, 1992/93-1994/95

    • 1.3 Cocoa Supply Regression Results, 1951-95

    • 1.4 Unit Roots Tests

    • 1.5 Cointegrated Vectors (0) in Johansen Estimation, 1951-95

  • Charts

    • 1.1 Cocoa Output Development

    • 1.2 Cocoa Price Developments

Ghana - Basic Data

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Figures for 1990 and 1993 include takeover of the accumulated revaluation losses of the Bank of Ghana by the Government.

Percentage change in relation to beginning money stock (M2).

Includes cocoa financing; figures for 1990 include nonperforming loans.

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Public and publically guaranteed medium- and long-term debt.

Ghana - Selected Social and Demographic Indicators 1/

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Sources: Statistical Service, Quarterly Digest of Statistics; IMF, International Financial Statistics; and data provided by the World Bank.

Unless otherwise mentioned, data refer to the latest available estimates.

Poverty line estimated at Cedi 132,230 per year as at mid-1992. Based on the living standards surveys conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service in collaboration with the World Bank during 1987/88, 1988/89, and 1991/92.

Contents

  • II. Divestiture of State-Owned Enterprises in Ghana

    • A. Introduction

    • B. Background

    • C. The Divestiture Process

      • 1. Activities of the DIC

      • 2. Activities of FINSAP

      • 3. Divestiture of AGC shares

      • 4. Involvement of the World Bank

    • D. The Impact of Divestiture

      • 1. The nonfinancial sector

      • 2. The financial sector

    • E. The Outlook for Future Action

  • Text Tables

    • II.1 State-Owned Enterprises Covered by the PSAC

    • II.2 Number of State-Owned Enterprises Divested

    • II.3 Sectoral Classification of Divested Enterprises

    • II.4 Ownership of Financial Institutions

    • II.5 Status of PSAC Implementation

  • III. The Transmission Mechanism Between Money and Inflation in Ghana

  • A. Introduction

    • 1. Inflation and monetary growth - recent developments

    • 2. Review of empirical models of inflation in Ghana

  • B. The General Inflation Model and Data Description

  • C. A Dynamic Econometric Model of Inflation in Ghana

    • 1. Stationarity status of data variables and test for cointegration

    • 2. An error-correction model of inflation

    • 3. Economic interpretation of the error-correction model of inflation

  • D. Incorporating Expectations in the Inflation Model

    • 1. Modeling expectations

    • 2. Interpretation of the estimated expectations models of inflation

    • 3. Forecast analysis of inflation

    • E. Conclusions

  • Text Tables

    • III.1 Actual and Programmed Inflation and Money Growth Over the Period 1990-95

    • III.2 The Estimated Nonexpectations Inflation Model in Ghana

    • III.3 The Estimated Adaptive Expectations Inflation Model in Ghana

    • III.4 The Estimated Rational Expectations Inflation Model in Ghana

    • III.5 Summary Statistics of the Ex ante Inflation Forecast for 1996 Based on Estimated Inflation Equations

    • III.6 Unit Roots Tests Results of the Individual Variables

    • III.7 Seasonal Unit Roots Tests Results of the Individual Variables

    • III.8 The Johansen-Juselius VAR Cointegration Results

    • III.9 Competing Inflation Model Performance

    • III.10 Nonnested Encompassing Tests for Inflation Model 2 Versus 3

  • Charts

    • III.1 Inflation and Broad Money Growth, 1985-95

    • III.2 Inflation: Actual and Forecast for 1995 from the Estimated Error-Correction Model

  • Statistical Annex

  • Tables

    • National Accounts

    • 1. Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1990-95

    • 2. Gross Product by Expenditure Category, 1990-95

    • 3. Composition and Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1990-95

    • 4. Composition and Growth of Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Category, 1990-95

    • Production

    • 5. Cocoa Bean Production, Consumption, Prices, Payments to Farmers, and Export Receipts, 1984/85-1995/96

    • 6. Operations of the Cocoa Board (Cocoa Division), 1988/89-1995/96

    • 7. Production, Acreage, and Yield of Principal Food Crops, 1989-94

    • 8. Production and Exports of Logs, Sawn Timber, Veneer, and Plywood, 1988-94

    • 9. Domestic Fish Catch and Imports, 1989-94

    • 10. Mineral Production, 1987-94

    • 11. Index of Manufacturing Production, 1988-94

    • 12. Generation and Consumption of Electricity, 1987-94

    • 13. Savings and Investment, 1990-95

    • Prices and Wages

    • 14. Average Monthly Earnings per Employee, 1976-96

    • 15. National Consumer Price Index (monthly averages), 1985-95

    • 16. National Consumer Price Index (percentage changes), 1985-95

    • 17. National Consumer Price Index (year-on-year percentage changes), 1987-95

    • 18. Index of Wholesale Prices, 1985-90

    • 19. Average Wholesale Prices of Selected Agricultural Commodities, 1987-95

    • 20. Retail Prices of Major Petroleum Products, December 1979-February 1996

    • 21. Central Government Operations and Financing, 1989-95

    • 22. Central Government Revenue and Grants, 1989-95

    • 23. Economic Classification of Central Government Expenditure and Net Lending, 1989-95

    • 24. Functional Classification of Central Government Expenditure, 1989-94

    • 25. Distribution of Outstanding Central Government Domestic Debt, 1989-94

    • 26. Operations of the Social Security and National Investment Trust, 1989-94

    • 27. Summary of Financial Operations of Select Major State-Owned Enterprises, 1989-94

    • 28. Public Investment Program, 1993-95

    • Money and Banking

    • 29. Summary of the Monetary Survey, 1989-95

    • 30. Summary Accounts of the Bank of Ghana, 1989-95

    • 31. Summary Accounts of Deposit Money Banks, 1989-95

    • 32. Distribution of Bank Loans and Advances to Public Institutions and the Private Sector, 1989-95

    • 33. Reserve Ratios of Commercial Banks, 1989-95

    • 34. Interest Rate Structure of Banks, March 1993-December 1995

    • External Accounts

    • 35. Balance of Payments, 1988-95

    • 36. External Trade Indices, 1988-95

    • 37. Value, Volume, and Unit Price of Exports, 1988-95

    • 38. Direction of Trade, 1987-94

    • 39. Services and Transfers Account, 1990-95

    • 40. Clearing Accounts Under Bilateral Payments Agreements, June 1990-December 1995

    • 41. External Public Debt and Debt Service, 1989-95

    • Summary of Tax System. May 1996

Ghana: Selected Issues and Statistical Annex
Author: International Monetary Fund