Iceland: Statistical Appendix

International Monetary Fund

doi:10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

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Iceland

Statistical Appendix

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International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund
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Publication Date:: 15 Mar 1996

eISBN:: 9781451819199

Language:: English

Keywords:: ISCR; CR; net; Iceland; long-term debt; Iceland interest rates; production function; net interest payment; factor income; composition of export

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In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

Abstract

ANNEX I. Iceland: The Outlook for Growth

Growth prospects for the Icelandic economy, assuming continuation of a favorable external environment, are predicated importantly upon the government’s fiscal consolidation plans and the possible implementation of several power-intensive projects currently under consideration.

1. Baseline scenario and fiscal consolidation

Official projections suggest that in the absence of any policy measures to curb the fiscal deficit and abstracting from any new power-intensive projects--a baseline scenario--annual real GDP growth would average a little over 2 percent in the medium term; and that fiscal consolidation would raise average growth to close to 2 1/2 percent. Especially in view of the strong dependence of the fiscal outlook on growth prospects, this annex seeks to assess the realism of these projections, in particular from the supply side.

a. The output gap

The estimates reported below should be treated with caution, and are meant to be suggestive only. Potential output calculations in Iceland are complicated by the weight in output of the fishing and fish-processing sectors, which account for 15 percent of GDP, and whose output is influenced importantly by the state of fish stocks. As a result, applying a production function framework is a particularly complex exercise. Instead, a first estimate of the recent output gap was calculated using a Hodrick-Prescott filter on overall GDP for 1970-2000 (using baseline projections for the medium-term) (^{Chart 13}). ^1/ The gap is thus put at about 2 1/2 percent of GDP in 1994.

A rough check on this estimate is provided by tentative calculations of Okun coefficients. Though no estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) are available, most observers agree that there has been a structural shift since the days when Icelandic unemployment was a mere 1 percent of the labor force, and that the cyclical component of unemployment is currently quite small--as suggested for instance by the recent rebound in wage inflation and the emergence of unrest in the labor market. With unemployment in 1994 at 4 3/4 percent, if the NAIRU was of the order of 4-4 1/4 percent and the gap 2 1/2 percent, as suggested above, the resulting Okun coefficient (the ratio of the output gap to the labor market gap) would be in the range of 3-5--toward the higher end of the range typically estimated in other industrial countries. Indications that both the labor force and working hours are low relative to trend would tend to confirm that cyclical variations in these elements are, together with unemployment, contributing importantly to the output gap, and raising the Okun coefficient. Indeed, tentative calculations using a Cobb-Douglas production function suggest that cyclical variation in total labor input alone may have contributed some 1 1/2 percentage points to the output gap in 1994, leaving a plausible 1 percentage point of the estimated 2 1/2 percent gap to be accounted for by underutilization of capital. ^1/

If the output gap was about 2 1/2 percent in 1994, actual growth in 1995 3 1/4 percent, and potential growth in 1995 about 2 percent (see below), the estimated output gap for 1995 would be modest, at a little less than 1 1/2 percent.

b. Medium-term scenarios

In the medium-term projections, the difficulties associated with the weight of the fishing sector in the economy are to some extent obviated by the fact that, in both the baseline and the fiscal consolidation scenarios, the sectoral composition of growth is expected to be fairly balanced as between fish and non-fish sectors. Efforts to engender a recovery of fish stocks in Icelandic waters largely predetermine an expected revival of activity in fish and fish-processing sectors. Cod catch quotas were reduced drastically over the last decade to reverse the effects of overfishing in Icelandic waters. ^2/ It is expected that as fish stocks recover, it will be possible to raise catch quotas gradually from the current level of 155,000 tons to 300,000 tons over the course of a decade, though the increases are expected to be available only after 1998. This will allow increased marine production by an annual average of 1 3/4 percent over 1996-1999. The sector is thus not expected to exert a very substantial drag on the overall growth rate.

Factor supplies for the extension of the current recovery will come in part from labor force growth projected at about 1 percent a year. However, growth of potential output would also require higher investment levels. In the baseline scenario, a rising fiscal deficit, the need to maintain a small current account surplus, and a likely slow rise in private savings will permit only meager investible resources for capital formation (Table A25). ^1/ Indeed, on this basis staff estimates suggest the investment rate is likely to remain stagnant near its current levels of 15 percent, permitting a rise in the capital stock of only 1 percent a year. All in all, potential output would be growing by about 2 percent a year. ^2/ Official projected GDP growth rates of just over 2 percent would be sufficient to track this trend growth while allowing for a very slow narrowing of the output gap.

The authorities expect the fiscal consolidation scenario to entail a temporary slowdown of growth in 1996-97, as a result of the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus. However, increased public savings would permit, on the estimates of Table A25, a gradual rise in the investment ratio to 18 percent of GDP by 1999. Stronger investment would add about 1/2 percentage point to potential growth by the end of the projection period, compared with the baseline scenario. The growth rates in the official projections would reflect a gradual absorption of slack after 1997.

These estimates would thus tend to confirm that the medium-term growth rates projected by the authorities, and underlying the fiscal consolidation plans, are broadly realistic.

2. Power-intensive projects

The existence of vast untapped reserves of geo-thermal energy makes Iceland eminently suitable for setting up power-intensive projects. Of the several such projects under consideration, an agreement in principle was reached between the Government of Iceland and Alusuisse-Lonza Holding Ltd. in early November on the expansion of the capacity of the existing aluminum smelter by 60 percent to a little over 160,000 tons.

The expansion envisages additional total investment of about US$260 million (ISK 16 1/2 billion) in 1996-97, equivalent to 2 percent of GDP per year. Of this total expenditure, a large part will be on imports; according to the National Economic Institute, the addition to domestic demand will be around ISK 2 billion per year, and this is expected to raise real GDP growth by 0.7-0.9 percentage points per year over the 1996-97 construction phase. The project will create labor demand of 900 man-years with the peak demand of 400 coming in the second quarter of 1997. It is expected that this can be readily accommodated as there is enough room in the construction industry; in addition, the current power-generation capacity is adequate for the project. The unemployment rate is expected to be, on average, lower by 0.3 percentage point. At a price between US$1650-2000 per ton, additional exports will amount to about ISK 6 1/2-8 billion a year (around 4 percent of exports of goods and non-factor services). The trade balance and the current account are expected to be weaker by 1 percent of GDP in 1996-97, though stronger by about 0.2 percent of GDP thereafter as the higher exports from the smelter come on-line. The current account regains balance by end-decade. National income would be higher by over a percentage point over the medium-term.

Other power-intensive projects currently under discussion include an additional 40,000 ton capacity expansion of the existing smelter, bringing the total capacity of the smelter to 200,000 tons per year by the end of the decade. ^1/ Iceland Alloys is also considering a 60 percent capacity expansion of its ferro-silicon plant which would entail an investment of US$50 million and generate increased exports of US$18-24 million per year. In addition, a U. S. firm is considering a 60,000 ton smelter; it has already garnered the necessary assets but is in the process of choosing a suitable site from among several countries, including Iceland. Besides an investment of US$150 million in the plant itself, the project would require additional investment in power generation to the tune of US$150 million. The simultaneous undertaking of these investment expenditures would generate additional demand of about 3-4 percent of GDP during the construction period. This would add substantially to pressures on domestic resources, strain the labor market, and raise the possibility of an overheated economy in the construction phase. In addition, once the new exports came on stream, and even taking account of factor incomes remitted abroad, these projects would add significantly to national income and might thereby put substantial pressure on the nontradable sector in their operation phase as well.

CHART 1

ICELAND OUTPUT GROWTH

(Annual percentage change)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

CHART 2

ICELAND INFLATION

(Twelve-month percent change)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

CHART 3

ICELAND EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: National Economic Institute.

CHART 4

ICELAND EXTERNAL SECTOR

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

CHART 5

ICELAND COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS

(In percent of total exports)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

CHART 6

ICELAND TREASURY FINANCES

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

CHART 7

ICELAND RECENT BUDGETARY DEVELOPMENTS

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

CHART 8

ICELAND OVERALL FISCAL POSITION

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

CHART 9

ICELAND INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN RESERVES

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Sources: Central Bank of Iceland; International Financial Statistics

CHART 10

ICELAND INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN RESERVES

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Sources: Central Bank of Iceland.1/ Against the official currency basket—up to September 6, 1995: ECU=76%, US$=18%, JPY=6%; trade-weighted basket thereafter.

CHART 11

ICELAND EXTERNAL CAPITAL FLOWS

(In billions of krónur)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Central Bank of Iceland: and staff calculations1/ First estimates for 1995:03.2/ including financial institutions.

CHART 12

ICELAND EXTERNAL DEBT

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.1/ Including financial institutions.

CHART 13

ICELAND OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE, AND WORKING HOURS

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1996, 017; 10.5089/9781451819199.002.A001

Sources: National Economic Institute; and staff calculations.1/ For manual workers.

Statistical Appendix

Table A1.

Iceland: GDP and Expenditure Components ^1/

Source: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Volume changes axe based on 1990 prices.

^{^2/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^3/}Change as a percentage of GNP of previous year.

^{^4/}2.5 percent if a reduction in exports of old ships and aircraft is excluded.

^{^5/}GNP adjusted for changes in terms of trade.

Table A1.

Iceland: GDP and Expenditure Components ^1/

		1994	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
		In billions of krónur at current prices	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	Prov.	Forecast	^2/
		In billions of krónur at current prices	Percentage changes at
Private consumption		257.5	0.5	4.1	-4.4	-4.4	1.7	4.5	3.0
Public consumption		89.1	4.4	3.2	-0.9	2.3	1.4	2.0	1.5
Gross fixed investment		65.8	2.6	2.0	-11.1	-11.5	-1.1	3.2	3.5
	Final domestic demand	412.4	1.6	3.5	-5.0	-4.4	1.6	3.7	2.8
Change in stocks ^3/		-1.0	-0.2	1.6	-0.3	0.3	-0.0	0.2	0.0
	Total domestic demand	411.4	1.4	5.2	-5.3	-4.1	1.1	3.9	2.8
Exports of goods and services		156.5	-0.0	-5.8	-1.7	6.4	9.5	3.2	0.7	^4/
Imports of goods and services		134.6	1.0	5.5	-7.8	-9.6	5.2	5.5	2.8
	Gross domestic product	433.2	1.1	1.3	-3.3	1.1	2.8	3.2	2.0
Net factor income ^3/		-13.1	0.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.0	0.3	0.5	2.6
	Gross national product	420.2	1.2	1.2	-3.5	1.1	3.1	3.8	2.2
	Gross national income ^5/		0.5	3.2	-4.3	-0.9	3.6	2.3	2.4

Source: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Volume changes axe based on 1990 prices.

^{^2/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^3/}Change as a percentage of GNP of previous year.

^{^4/}2.5 percent if a reduction in exports of old ships and aircraft is excluded.

^{^5/}GNP adjusted for changes in terms of trade.

Table A1.

Iceland: GDP and Expenditure Components ^1/

		1994	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
		In billions of krónur at current prices	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	Prov.	Forecast	^2/
		In billions of krónur at current prices	Percentage changes at
Private consumption		257.5	0.5	4.1	-4.4	-4.4	1.7	4.5	3.0
Public consumption		89.1	4.4	3.2	-0.9	2.3	1.4	2.0	1.5
Gross fixed investment		65.8	2.6	2.0	-11.1	-11.5	-1.1	3.2	3.5
	Final domestic demand	412.4	1.6	3.5	-5.0	-4.4	1.6	3.7	2.8
Change in stocks ^3/		-1.0	-0.2	1.6	-0.3	0.3	-0.0	0.2	0.0
	Total domestic demand	411.4	1.4	5.2	-5.3	-4.1	1.1	3.9	2.8
Exports of goods and services		156.5	-0.0	-5.8	-1.7	6.4	9.5	3.2	0.7	^4/
Imports of goods and services		134.6	1.0	5.5	-7.8	-9.6	5.2	5.5	2.8
	Gross domestic product	433.2	1.1	1.3	-3.3	1.1	2.8	3.2	2.0
Net factor income ^3/		-13.1	0.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.0	0.3	0.5	2.6
	Gross national product	420.2	1.2	1.2	-3.5	1.1	3.1	3.8	2.2
	Gross national income ^5/		0.5	3.2	-4.3	-0.9	3.6	2.3	2.4

Source: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Volume changes axe based on 1990 prices.

^{^2/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^3/}Change as a percentage of GNP of previous year.

^{^4/}2.5 percent if a reduction in exports of old ships and aircraft is excluded.

^{^5/}GNP adjusted for changes in terms of trade.

Table A2.

Iceland: Gross Fixed Capital Formation ^1/

Source: The National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Volume changes are based on 1990 prices.

^{^2/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^3/}Including aquaculture.

Table A2.

Iceland: Gross Fixed Capital Formation ^1/

				1993	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
				In billions of krónur at current prices	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	Forecast ^2/
				In billions of krónur at current prices	Percentage changes at constant prices
Gross fixed capital formation				64.2	2.0	-11.1	-11.5	-1.1	3.2	3.5
	Business sector			28.9	3.6	-17.1	-24.8	0.2	13.0	9.7
		Agriculture		1.9	21.4	-12.8	7.3	-8.1	4.1	-5.0
		Fisheries ^3/		2.1	1.5	98.8	-67.1	47.8	-25.4	12.0
		Manufacturing		7.1	7.3	-18.0	-3.2	4.8	10.9	4.8
			Fish processing	1.7	-22.3	-4.1	12.2	33.9	7.5	-3.0
			Aluminum smelter	0.6	-8.6	-63.2	58.5	-50.7	13.2	39.0
			Ferrosilicon plant	0.0	-63.2	-77.1	325.0	139.6	-38.3	108.0
			Other manufacturing	4.8	24.2	-13.5	-12.3	-0.0	13.4	4.5
		Energy and water supply		3.5	1.9	-47.3	-11.4	-11.0	10.5	-1.8
			Electrical power generation, and distribution	2.1	8.7	-59.7	-15.5	-23.9	8.9	--
			Geothermal heating	0.9	-34.8	27.9	-8.2	3.4	22.4	--
			Water supply	0.6	10.6	-25.6	0.7	12.4	-3.1	-10.0
		Construction		1.5	35.9	-39.3	-12.1	-20.9	27.0	11.0
		Transport equipment		4.0	-1.2	-37.4	-49.4	-29.3	69.5	34.0
		Post, telephone, radio and television		2.0	35.8	23.5	3.7	16.8	-3.0	5.0
		Commerce and services		3.9	-14.8	-0.8	-13.6	-8.0	4.6	3.3
		Other		2.9	10.6	-4.7	-1.8	25.3	26.2	15.0
	Housing			18.2	-4.9	-3.3	-5.8	2.0	-5.0	--
	Public sector			17.0	7.3	-3.6	14.4	-6.6	-4.6	-5.9
		Roads and bridges		4.4	6.0	-0.4	64.3	-16.5	-2.1	-16.0
		Streets and sewers		3.3	22.9	-8.2	1.8	-2.2	-0.2	6.0
		Public buildings		9.3	2.6	-2.7	3.8	-3.5	-7.3	-6.0

Source: The National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Volume changes are based on 1990 prices.

^{^2/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^3/}Including aquaculture.

Table A2.

Iceland: Gross Fixed Capital Formation ^1/

				1993	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
				In billions of krónur at current prices	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	Forecast ^2/
				In billions of krónur at current prices	Percentage changes at constant prices
Gross fixed capital formation				64.2	2.0	-11.1	-11.5	-1.1	3.2	3.5
	Business sector			28.9	3.6	-17.1	-24.8	0.2	13.0	9.7
		Agriculture		1.9	21.4	-12.8	7.3	-8.1	4.1	-5.0
		Fisheries ^3/		2.1	1.5	98.8	-67.1	47.8	-25.4	12.0
		Manufacturing		7.1	7.3	-18.0	-3.2	4.8	10.9	4.8
			Fish processing	1.7	-22.3	-4.1	12.2	33.9	7.5	-3.0
			Aluminum smelter	0.6	-8.6	-63.2	58.5	-50.7	13.2	39.0
			Ferrosilicon plant	0.0	-63.2	-77.1	325.0	139.6	-38.3	108.0
			Other manufacturing	4.8	24.2	-13.5	-12.3	-0.0	13.4	4.5
		Energy and water supply		3.5	1.9	-47.3	-11.4	-11.0	10.5	-1.8
			Electrical power generation, and distribution	2.1	8.7	-59.7	-15.5	-23.9	8.9	--
			Geothermal heating	0.9	-34.8	27.9	-8.2	3.4	22.4	--
			Water supply	0.6	10.6	-25.6	0.7	12.4	-3.1	-10.0
		Construction		1.5	35.9	-39.3	-12.1	-20.9	27.0	11.0
		Transport equipment		4.0	-1.2	-37.4	-49.4	-29.3	69.5	34.0
		Post, telephone, radio and television		2.0	35.8	23.5	3.7	16.8	-3.0	5.0
		Commerce and services		3.9	-14.8	-0.8	-13.6	-8.0	4.6	3.3
		Other		2.9	10.6	-4.7	-1.8	25.3	26.2	15.0
	Housing			18.2	-4.9	-3.3	-5.8	2.0	-5.0	--
	Public sector			17.0	7.3	-3.6	14.4	-6.6	-4.6	-5.9
		Roads and bridges		4.4	6.0	-0.4	64.3	-16.5	-2.1	-16.0
		Streets and sewers		3.3	22.9	-8.2	1.8	-2.2	-0.2	6.0
		Public buildings		9.3	2.6	-2.7	3.8	-3.5	-7.3	-6.0

Source: The National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Volume changes are based on 1990 prices.

^{^2/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^3/}Including aquaculture.

Table A3.

Iceland: Gross Domestic Product by Sectors

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A3.

Iceland: Gross Domestic Product by Sectors

		In percent of total (1990)	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993 Prel.	1994 Est.
		In percent of total (1990)	Percentage changes at constant prices
Agriculture and fishing Agriculture Fishing		13.0	-2.6	2.1	-9.8	1.8	2.1	-1.4
	Agriculture	2.9	0.3	-1.8	-0.8	-2.2	1.5	2.3
	Fishing	10.1	-4.1	4.1	-12.2	3.0	2.3	-2.4
Manufacturing		17.4	-3.6	-2.7	1.5	-4.0	-1.7	4.6
	Fish processing	5.2	-3.6	-2.0	-0.1	-2.4	6.0	6.6
	Other manufacturing	12.3	-3.6	-3.1	2.2	-4.6	-4.9	3.7
Electricity and water supply		4.3	2.2	0.6	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.0
Construction		8.2	0.9	-1.3	2.7	-7.7	-0.2	-4.0
Commerce		13.4	-5.5	4.1	1.5	-4.6	-4.5	1.7
Transport, storage and communication		7.8	-2.5	6.8	-0.1	-1.7	1.1	2.8
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services		17.0	0.6	0.3	0.7	0.3	-1.0	-1.0
Other private services		6.2	-2.2	-1.0	3.6	-2.0	1.1	2.8
Government services		16.1	3.0	4.9	3.8	-0.6	2.3	3.3
Other producers		1.1	2.9	3.7	2.0	0.2	1.1	2.8
Less: Imputed hank service charges		-4.5	-2.2	-1.7	1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0
	Gross domestic factor income	100.0	-0.9	1.8	0.4	-1.9	-0.2	1.4
Memorandum item:
	GDP from expenditure side		0.3	1.1	1.3	-3.3	1.1	2.8

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A3.

Iceland: Gross Domestic Product by Sectors

		In percent of total (1990)	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993 Prel.	1994 Est.
		In percent of total (1990)	Percentage changes at constant prices
Agriculture and fishing Agriculture Fishing		13.0	-2.6	2.1	-9.8	1.8	2.1	-1.4
	Agriculture	2.9	0.3	-1.8	-0.8	-2.2	1.5	2.3
	Fishing	10.1	-4.1	4.1	-12.2	3.0	2.3	-2.4
Manufacturing		17.4	-3.6	-2.7	1.5	-4.0	-1.7	4.6
	Fish processing	5.2	-3.6	-2.0	-0.1	-2.4	6.0	6.6
	Other manufacturing	12.3	-3.6	-3.1	2.2	-4.6	-4.9	3.7
Electricity and water supply		4.3	2.2	0.6	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.0
Construction		8.2	0.9	-1.3	2.7	-7.7	-0.2	-4.0
Commerce		13.4	-5.5	4.1	1.5	-4.6	-4.5	1.7
Transport, storage and communication		7.8	-2.5	6.8	-0.1	-1.7	1.1	2.8
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services		17.0	0.6	0.3	0.7	0.3	-1.0	-1.0
Other private services		6.2	-2.2	-1.0	3.6	-2.0	1.1	2.8
Government services		16.1	3.0	4.9	3.8	-0.6	2.3	3.3
Other producers		1.1	2.9	3.7	2.0	0.2	1.1	2.8
Less: Imputed hank service charges		-4.5	-2.2	-1.7	1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0
	Gross domestic factor income	100.0	-0.9	1.8	0.4	-1.9	-0.2	1.4
Memorandum item:
	GDP from expenditure side		0.3	1.1	1.3	-3.3	1.1	2.8

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A4.

Iceland: Fish Catch and Marine Production

Source: The national Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^2/}Catch values deflated by domestic fish prices.

Table A4.

Iceland: Fish Catch and Marine Production

		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Est.	1996 Forecast ^1/
		(In thousands of metric tons)
Fish catch		1,495	1,505	1,049	1,576	1,719	1,552	1,714	1,827
	Cod	354	334	307	267	262	215	195	195
	Other demersal species	338	340	348	318	325	343	305	319
	Herring	97	90	79	123	117	130	132	125
	Capelin	653	694	260	798	940	754	818	936
	Crustaceans	40	44	50	61	70	85	86	86
	Others	12	3	5	9	5	25	178	166
		(percentage changes at constant prices) ^2/
Value of catch		-4.3	-3.9	-5.2	-0.9	2.3	-2.4	0.5	1.5
	Excluding capelin	-2.5	-4.3	-1.9	-5.7	1.3	-1.8	-0.1	0.4

Source: The national Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^2/}Catch values deflated by domestic fish prices.

Table A4.

Iceland: Fish Catch and Marine Production

		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Est.	1996 Forecast ^1/
		(In thousands of metric tons)
Fish catch		1,495	1,505	1,049	1,576	1,719	1,552	1,714	1,827
	Cod	354	334	307	267	262	215	195	195
	Other demersal species	338	340	348	318	325	343	305	319
	Herring	97	90	79	123	117	130	132	125
	Capelin	653	694	260	798	940	754	818	936
	Crustaceans	40	44	50	61	70	85	86	86
	Others	12	3	5	9	5	25	178	166
		(percentage changes at constant prices) ^2/
Value of catch		-4.3	-3.9	-5.2	-0.9	2.3	-2.4	0.5	1.5
	Excluding capelin	-2.5	-4.3	-1.9	-5.7	1.3	-1.8	-0.1	0.4

Source: The national Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

^{^2/}Catch values deflated by domestic fish prices.

Table A5.

Iceland: Export Production and Merchandise Exports

Source: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

Table A5.

Iceland: Export Production and Merchandise Exports

		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
		In percent of export production	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	Est.	Forecast ^1/
		In percent of export production	Percent changes at constant prices
Export production		100.0	-1.8	-3.9	-2.3	5.3	8.0	1.2	1.3
	Marina products	71.3	-1.2	-2.6	-2.0	6.0	6.6	--	1.0
	Aluminum	13.0	-1.8	2.7	0.4	1.5	7.4	--	1.5
	Ferrosilicon	4.3	-12.2	-20.6	8.7	27.5	3.3	10.0	--
	Other products	11.4	-0.8	-16.0	-10.5	-1.4	23.7	9.5	4.0
Exports		102.8	-1.4	-7.9	-1.0	5.1	12.2	1.4	-1.1

Source: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

Table A5.

Iceland: Export Production and Merchandise Exports

		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
		In percent of export production	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	Est.	Forecast ^1/
		In percent of export production	Percent changes at constant prices
Export production		100.0	-1.8	-3.9	-2.3	5.3	8.0	1.2	1.3
	Marina products	71.3	-1.2	-2.6	-2.0	6.0	6.6	--	1.0
	Aluminum	13.0	-1.8	2.7	0.4	1.5	7.4	--	1.5
	Ferrosilicon	4.3	-12.2	-20.6	8.7	27.5	3.3	10.0	--
	Other products	11.4	-0.8	-16.0	-10.5	-1.4	23.7	9.5	4.0
Exports		102.8	-1.4	-7.9	-1.0	5.1	12.2	1.4	-1.1

Source: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates and forecasts as of October 1995.

Table A6.

Iceland: Balance of Payments on Current Account

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Including compensation of employees.

Table A6.

Iceland: Balance of Payments on Current Account

			1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Jan-Sept
			(In millions of krónur)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			61,667	80,072	92,452	91,560	87,833	94,656	112,655	65,560
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			61,996	72,603	87,652	94,639	87,909	82,390	92,993	72,516
	Merchandise trade balance		-329	7,469	4,800	-3,079	-76	12,268	19,662	13,044
Net non-factor services ^1/			-383	1,360	1,827	-172	1,695	2.684	4,676	5,184
	Balance on goods and services		-712	8,829	6,627	-3,251	1,619	14,952	24,338	18,228
Net interest payments			-8,173	-12,951	-14,377	-14,797	-13,619	-14,615	-15.540	-12.009
Net unrequited transfers			-42	-185	6	-301	-360	-155	-919	-278
	Current account balance		-8,927	-4,307	-7,744	-18,349	-12,360	182	7,879	5,941
			(In millions of SDRs)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			1,066.5	1,094.9	1,168.3	1,133.9	1,083.5	1,002.7	1,124.7	867.7
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			1,072.2	992.8	1,107.7	1,172.1	1.084.4	872.8	928.4	735.4
	Merchandise trade balance		-5.7	102.1	60.7	-38.1	-0.9	130.0	196.3	132.3
Net non-factor services			-6.6	18.6	23.1	-2.1	20.9	28.4	46.7	52.8
	Balance on goods and services		-12.3	120.7	83.7	-40.3	20.0	158.4	243.0	185.1
Net interest payments			-141.3	-177.1	-181.7	-183.3	-166.0	-154.8	-155.1	-121.8
Net unrequited transfers			-0.7	-2.5	0.1	-3.7	-4.4	-1.6	-9.2	-2.8
	Current account balance		-154.4	-58.9	-97.9	-227.2	-152.5	1.9	78.7	60.5
			(In percent of GDP)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			24.0	26.0	25.4	23.1	22.1	23.0	26.0	…
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			24.2	23.6	24.1	23.9	22.1	20.1	21.5	…
	Merchandise trade balance		-0.1	2.4	1.3	-0.8	-0.0	3.0	4.5	…
Net non-factor services			-0.1	0.4	0.5	-0.0	0.4	0.7	1.1	…
	Balance on goods and services		-0.3	2.9	1.8	-0.8	0.4	3.6	5.6	…
Net interest payments			-3.2	-4.2	-4.0	-3.7	-3.4	-3.6	-3.6	…
Net unrequited transfers			-0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.0	-0.2	…
	Current account balance		-3.5	-1.4	-2.1	-4.6	-3.1	0.0	1.8	…
Memorandum items:
	Terms of trade (1990-100)		107.7	102.8	100.0	104.5	100.6	94.6	95.6	…
		(Change in percent)	-1.3	-4.6	-2.7	4.5	-3.7	-6.0	1.1	…
Conversion rate (ISK/SDR, period average)			57.8	73.1	79.1	80.7	81.1	94.4	100.2	98.6

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Including compensation of employees.

Table A6.

Iceland: Balance of Payments on Current Account

			1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Jan-Sept
			(In millions of krónur)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			61,667	80,072	92,452	91,560	87,833	94,656	112,655	65,560
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			61,996	72,603	87,652	94,639	87,909	82,390	92,993	72,516
	Merchandise trade balance		-329	7,469	4,800	-3,079	-76	12,268	19,662	13,044
Net non-factor services ^1/			-383	1,360	1,827	-172	1,695	2.684	4,676	5,184
	Balance on goods and services		-712	8,829	6,627	-3,251	1,619	14,952	24,338	18,228
Net interest payments			-8,173	-12,951	-14,377	-14,797	-13,619	-14,615	-15.540	-12.009
Net unrequited transfers			-42	-185	6	-301	-360	-155	-919	-278
	Current account balance		-8,927	-4,307	-7,744	-18,349	-12,360	182	7,879	5,941
			(In millions of SDRs)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			1,066.5	1,094.9	1,168.3	1,133.9	1,083.5	1,002.7	1,124.7	867.7
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			1,072.2	992.8	1,107.7	1,172.1	1.084.4	872.8	928.4	735.4
	Merchandise trade balance		-5.7	102.1	60.7	-38.1	-0.9	130.0	196.3	132.3
Net non-factor services			-6.6	18.6	23.1	-2.1	20.9	28.4	46.7	52.8
	Balance on goods and services		-12.3	120.7	83.7	-40.3	20.0	158.4	243.0	185.1
Net interest payments			-141.3	-177.1	-181.7	-183.3	-166.0	-154.8	-155.1	-121.8
Net unrequited transfers			-0.7	-2.5	0.1	-3.7	-4.4	-1.6	-9.2	-2.8
	Current account balance		-154.4	-58.9	-97.9	-227.2	-152.5	1.9	78.7	60.5
			(In percent of GDP)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			24.0	26.0	25.4	23.1	22.1	23.0	26.0	…
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			24.2	23.6	24.1	23.9	22.1	20.1	21.5	…
	Merchandise trade balance		-0.1	2.4	1.3	-0.8	-0.0	3.0	4.5	…
Net non-factor services			-0.1	0.4	0.5	-0.0	0.4	0.7	1.1	…
	Balance on goods and services		-0.3	2.9	1.8	-0.8	0.4	3.6	5.6	…
Net interest payments			-3.2	-4.2	-4.0	-3.7	-3.4	-3.6	-3.6	…
Net unrequited transfers			-0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.0	-0.2	…
	Current account balance		-3.5	-1.4	-2.1	-4.6	-3.1	0.0	1.8	…
Memorandum items:
	Terms of trade (1990-100)		107.7	102.8	100.0	104.5	100.6	94.6	95.6	…
		(Change in percent)	-1.3	-4.6	-2.7	4.5	-3.7	-6.0	1.1	…
Conversion rate (ISK/SDR, period average)			57.8	73.1	79.1	80.7	81.1	94.4	100.2	98.6

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Including compensation of employees.

Table A7.

Iceland: Merchandise Trade by Commodity

Source: Statistical Bureau of Iceland.

^{^1/}Official estimates as of October 1995.

Table A7.

Iceland: Merchandise Trade by Commodity

			1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Prov. ^1/
			(In millions of krónur)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			61,667	80,072	92,452	91,560	87,833	94,658	112,655	119,951
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			61,996	72,603	87,652	94,639	87,909	82,390	92,993	103,035
	Trade balance		-329	7,469	4,800	-3,079	-76	12,268	19,662	16,916
			(In percent of total exports)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Marine products		71.1	71.0	75.6	80.0	79.6	78.8	75.3	73.7
	Agricultural products		1.7	1.7	1.9	1.8	1.9	1.7	1.9	1.4
	Manufacturing products		22.4	24.6	20.4	17.4	17.2	17.5	18.7	19.8
		Aluminum	10.7	12.9	10.4	8.8	9.2	8.7	9.6	9.3
		Ferrosilicon	3.9	3.8	2.6	1.9	1.9	2.5	2.4	2.3
		Other	7.7	8.0	7.4	6.6	6.2	6.2	6.7	8.3
	Miscellaneous		4.8	2.7	2.1	0.9	1.4	2.1	4.1	5.1
			(In percent of total imports)
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Special imports		13.4	14.9	16.0	13.8	13.9	8.6	10.2	11.0
		Special investment goods	8.9	8.9	9.6	7.6	8.1	2.7	4.5	…
		Aluminum smelter	3.6	5.0	5.5	5.4	5.2	5.2	4.8	…
		Ferrosilicon plant	0.9	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.8	…
	General imports		86.6	85.1	84.0	86.2	86.1	91.4	89.8	89.0
		Oil	5.9	8.3	9.5	7.8	8.1	8.9	7.8	8.1
		Other	80.7	76.8	74.5	78.3	78.0	82.5	82.1	81.0
			(Percentage changes at constant prices)
Merchandise exports			-1.2	3.5	-1.4	-7.9	-1.0	5.1	12.2	1.4
Merchandise imports			-5.5	-10.9	0.3	4.9	-7.6	-14.1	7.6	5.6
	Oil		-1.7	14.7	0.3	-15.5	11.8	-3.5	1.9	5.6

Source: Statistical Bureau of Iceland.

^{^1/}Official estimates as of October 1995.

Table A7.

Iceland: Merchandise Trade by Commodity

			1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Prov. ^1/
			(In millions of krónur)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			61,667	80,072	92,452	91,560	87,833	94,658	112,655	119,951
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			61,996	72,603	87,652	94,639	87,909	82,390	92,993	103,035
	Trade balance		-329	7,469	4,800	-3,079	-76	12,268	19,662	16,916
			(In percent of total exports)
Merchandise exports, f.o.b.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Marine products		71.1	71.0	75.6	80.0	79.6	78.8	75.3	73.7
	Agricultural products		1.7	1.7	1.9	1.8	1.9	1.7	1.9	1.4
	Manufacturing products		22.4	24.6	20.4	17.4	17.2	17.5	18.7	19.8
		Aluminum	10.7	12.9	10.4	8.8	9.2	8.7	9.6	9.3
		Ferrosilicon	3.9	3.8	2.6	1.9	1.9	2.5	2.4	2.3
		Other	7.7	8.0	7.4	6.6	6.2	6.2	6.7	8.3
	Miscellaneous		4.8	2.7	2.1	0.9	1.4	2.1	4.1	5.1
			(In percent of total imports)
Merchandise imports, f.o.b.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Special imports		13.4	14.9	16.0	13.8	13.9	8.6	10.2	11.0
		Special investment goods	8.9	8.9	9.6	7.6	8.1	2.7	4.5	…
		Aluminum smelter	3.6	5.0	5.5	5.4	5.2	5.2	4.8	…
		Ferrosilicon plant	0.9	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.8	…
	General imports		86.6	85.1	84.0	86.2	86.1	91.4	89.8	89.0
		Oil	5.9	8.3	9.5	7.8	8.1	8.9	7.8	8.1
		Other	80.7	76.8	74.5	78.3	78.0	82.5	82.1	81.0
			(Percentage changes at constant prices)
Merchandise exports			-1.2	3.5	-1.4	-7.9	-1.0	5.1	12.2	1.4
Merchandise imports			-5.5	-10.9	0.3	4.9	-7.6	-14.1	7.6	5.6
	Oil		-1.7	14.7	0.3	-15.5	11.8	-3.5	1.9	5.6

Source: Statistical Bureau of Iceland.

^{^1/}Official estimates as of October 1995.

Table A8.

Iceland: Merchandise Trade by Area

Source: Statistical Bureau of Iceland.

Table A8.

Iceland: Merchandise Trade by Area

			1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In percent of total)
Exports, f.o.b.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Western Europe		65.6	69.0	72.5	76.5	74.4	76.0	68.8	66.6
		Of which:
		Germany	10.0	10.3	11.9	12.7	12.1	12.5	11.0	12.9
		Italy	3.0	2.5	3.2	2.9	3.5	2.8	2.0	2.3
		Portugal	9.4	8.5	4.3	3.6	4.7	2.9	1.6	1.3
		Spain	3.0	3.4	3.4	5.0	4.8	5.1	4.9	4.7
		Switzerland	2.7	4.5	5.5	4.2	4.0	2.5	3.7	1.8
		United Kingdom	19.5	23.3	20.8	25.4	23.4	25.1	21.6	20.5
	Eastern Europe		4.7	5.4	5.0	3.0	0.8	0.4	0.5	0.8
		Of which: Russia	3.6	3.6	3.1	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.6
	Other		29.7	25.6	22.6	20.5	24.8	23.6	30.7	32.6
		Of which:
		United States	18.2	13.6	14.3	9.9	12.6	11.4	15.9	14.6
		Japan	7.8	7.6	7.1	6.0	7.9	7.5	9.3	14.2
Imports, c.i.f.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Western Europe		72.7	73.6	70.1	66.0	67.7	73.6	72.1	81.4
		Of which:
		Germany	15.2	14.2	13.1	12.4	12.7	12.4	11.9	12.4
		United Kingdom	8.2	8.2	8.1	8.1	8.0	8.5	9.0	10.9
	Eastern Europe		5.8	5.5	6.5	6.7	4.0	2.4	3.4	3.4
		Of which: U.S.S.R.	4.2	3.5	4.2	5.0	3.2	1.6	2.5	2.5
	Other		21.5	20.8	23.4	27.3	28.2	24.0	24.5	15.2
		Of which:
		United States	7.1	7.5	11.0	14.4	12.6	8.3	9.3	9.8
		Japan	8.2	6.9	4.9	5.6	7.2	5.8	5.5	4.4
			(In millions of SDRs)
Memorandum items:
	Exports, f.o.b.		1,060	1,066	1,095	1,168	1,134	1,083	1,003	1,125
	Imports, c.i.f.		1,224	1,188	1,097	1,221	1,290	1,195	967	928

Source: Statistical Bureau of Iceland.

Table A8.

Iceland: Merchandise Trade by Area

			1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In percent of total)
Exports, f.o.b.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Western Europe		65.6	69.0	72.5	76.5	74.4	76.0	68.8	66.6
		Of which:
		Germany	10.0	10.3	11.9	12.7	12.1	12.5	11.0	12.9
		Italy	3.0	2.5	3.2	2.9	3.5	2.8	2.0	2.3
		Portugal	9.4	8.5	4.3	3.6	4.7	2.9	1.6	1.3
		Spain	3.0	3.4	3.4	5.0	4.8	5.1	4.9	4.7
		Switzerland	2.7	4.5	5.5	4.2	4.0	2.5	3.7	1.8
		United Kingdom	19.5	23.3	20.8	25.4	23.4	25.1	21.6	20.5
	Eastern Europe		4.7	5.4	5.0	3.0	0.8	0.4	0.5	0.8
		Of which: Russia	3.6	3.6	3.1	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.6
	Other		29.7	25.6	22.6	20.5	24.8	23.6	30.7	32.6
		Of which:
		United States	18.2	13.6	14.3	9.9	12.6	11.4	15.9	14.6
		Japan	7.8	7.6	7.1	6.0	7.9	7.5	9.3	14.2
Imports, c.i.f.			100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Western Europe		72.7	73.6	70.1	66.0	67.7	73.6	72.1	81.4
		Of which:
		Germany	15.2	14.2	13.1	12.4	12.7	12.4	11.9	12.4
		United Kingdom	8.2	8.2	8.1	8.1	8.0	8.5	9.0	10.9
	Eastern Europe		5.8	5.5	6.5	6.7	4.0	2.4	3.4	3.4
		Of which: U.S.S.R.	4.2	3.5	4.2	5.0	3.2	1.6	2.5	2.5
	Other		21.5	20.8	23.4	27.3	28.2	24.0	24.5	15.2
		Of which:
		United States	7.1	7.5	11.0	14.4	12.6	8.3	9.3	9.8
		Japan	8.2	6.9	4.9	5.6	7.2	5.8	5.5	4.4
			(In millions of SDRs)
Memorandum items:
	Exports, f.o.b.		1,060	1,066	1,095	1,168	1,134	1,083	1,003	1,125
	Imports, c.i.f.		1,224	1,188	1,097	1,221	1,290	1,195	967	928

Source: Statistical Bureau of Iceland.

Table A9.

Iceland: Trade in Services

(In millions of krónur)

Sources: National Economic Institute; Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Including compensation of employees.

Table A9.

Iceland: Trade in Services

(In millions of krónur)

		1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Jan-Sept
Travel, net		-5,222	-5,470	-8,058	-9,243	-9,167	-8,973	-7,877	-4,233
	Payments	9,902	11,712	16,168	17,279	16,562	17,918	17,514	12,829
	Receipts	4,680	6,242	8,110	8,036	7,395	8,954	9,637	8,596
Transportation, net		229	849	2,266	1,048	1,322	2,778	3,287	1,839
	Payments	8,819	10,263	10,404	11,943	10,804	12,849	13,734	11,624
	Receipts	9,048	11,112	12,670	12,991	12,162	15,627	17,021	13,463
NATO defence forces, net		5,110	7,308	9,234	9,439	9,757	9,061	9,547	4,433
Miscellaneous, net ^1/		-500	-1,327	-1,615	-1,416	-217	-182	-281	926
Services excl. interests, net		-383	1,360	1,827	-172	1,695	2,684	4,676	5,184
	Payments	22,435	27,156	32,625	36,549	34,757	40,805	42,174	30,902
	Receipts	22,052	28,516	34,452	36,377	36,452	43,489	46,850	36,086
Interests, net		-8,173	-12,951	-14,377	-14,797	-13,619	-14,615	-15,540	-12,009
	Payments	9,130	14,568	16,190	16,580	15,994	17,246	17,970	13,754
	Receipts	957	1,617	1,813	1,783	2,375	2,631	2,430	1,745
Total services and income, net		-8,556	-11,591	-12,550	-14,969	-11,924	-11,931	-10,864	-6,825
	Payments	31,565	41,724	48,815	53,129	50,751	58,051	60,144	44,656
	Receipts	23,009	30,133	36,265	38,160	38,827	46,120	49,280	37,831

Sources: National Economic Institute; Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Including compensation of employees.

Table A9.

Iceland: Trade in Services

(In millions of krónur)

		1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Jan-Sept
Travel, net		-5,222	-5,470	-8,058	-9,243	-9,167	-8,973	-7,877	-4,233
	Payments	9,902	11,712	16,168	17,279	16,562	17,918	17,514	12,829
	Receipts	4,680	6,242	8,110	8,036	7,395	8,954	9,637	8,596
Transportation, net		229	849	2,266	1,048	1,322	2,778	3,287	1,839
	Payments	8,819	10,263	10,404	11,943	10,804	12,849	13,734	11,624
	Receipts	9,048	11,112	12,670	12,991	12,162	15,627	17,021	13,463
NATO defence forces, net		5,110	7,308	9,234	9,439	9,757	9,061	9,547	4,433
Miscellaneous, net ^1/		-500	-1,327	-1,615	-1,416	-217	-182	-281	926
Services excl. interests, net		-383	1,360	1,827	-172	1,695	2,684	4,676	5,184
	Payments	22,435	27,156	32,625	36,549	34,757	40,805	42,174	30,902
	Receipts	22,052	28,516	34,452	36,377	36,452	43,489	46,850	36,086
Interests, net		-8,173	-12,951	-14,377	-14,797	-13,619	-14,615	-15,540	-12,009
	Payments	9,130	14,568	16,190	16,580	15,994	17,246	17,970	13,754
	Receipts	957	1,617	1,813	1,783	2,375	2,631	2,430	1,745
Total services and income, net		-8,556	-11,591	-12,550	-14,969	-11,924	-11,931	-10,864	-6,825
	Payments	31,565	41,724	48,815	53,129	50,751	58,051	60,144	44,656
	Receipts	23,009	30,133	36,265	38,160	38,827	46,120	49,280	37,831

Sources: National Economic Institute; Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Including compensation of employees.

Table A10.

Iceland: Unemployment, Wages, and Prices

Source: The National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates as of October 1995.

^{^2/}Planned hiring less layoffs.

^{^3/}Relative to the consumer price index.

Table A10.

Iceland: Unemployment, Wages, and Prices

			1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Prov. ^1/
			(In percent of labour forces)
Unemployment			1.6	1.8	1.5	3.1	4.4	4.7	5.0
Vacancies ^2/
	Spring		-0.1	0.2	0.6	-0.6	-0.9	-0.5	0.2
	Autumn		-0.5	0.4	0.8	-1.4	-0.6	--	0.1
			(Percentage changes)
Nominal wages and incomes
	Hourly wage rates
		All employees	13.6	7.2	8.2	5.8	1.1	0.8	4.0
		Skilled and unskilled labor	12.5	7.7	8.5	4.3	1.7	0.4	3.2
	Disposable income per capita		11.5	10.0	9.5	1.3	-2.2	1.3	5.5
Prices
	Consumer price index		20.8	15.5	6.8	4.0	4.1	1.6	1.7
	GDP deflator		19.8	16.8	7.6	3.7	2.1	2.6	1.7
	Private consumption deflator		23.3	17.0	6.9	4.6	4.6	1.7	1.7
Real wages and incomes ^3/
	Hourly wage rates
		All employees	-5.9	-7.2	1.3	1.8	-2.9	-0.7	2.3
		Skilled and unskilled labor	-6.8	-6.8	1.6	0.4	-2.3	-1.1	1.5
	Disposable income per capita		-7.7	-4.8	2.5	-2.6	-6.0	-0.2	3.7

Source: The National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates as of October 1995.

^{^2/}Planned hiring less layoffs.

^{^3/}Relative to the consumer price index.

Table A10.

Iceland: Unemployment, Wages, and Prices

			1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Prov. ^1/
			(In percent of labour forces)
Unemployment			1.6	1.8	1.5	3.1	4.4	4.7	5.0
Vacancies ^2/
	Spring		-0.1	0.2	0.6	-0.6	-0.9	-0.5	0.2
	Autumn		-0.5	0.4	0.8	-1.4	-0.6	--	0.1
			(Percentage changes)
Nominal wages and incomes
	Hourly wage rates
		All employees	13.6	7.2	8.2	5.8	1.1	0.8	4.0
		Skilled and unskilled labor	12.5	7.7	8.5	4.3	1.7	0.4	3.2
	Disposable income per capita		11.5	10.0	9.5	1.3	-2.2	1.3	5.5
Prices
	Consumer price index		20.8	15.5	6.8	4.0	4.1	1.6	1.7
	GDP deflator		19.8	16.8	7.6	3.7	2.1	2.6	1.7
	Private consumption deflator		23.3	17.0	6.9	4.6	4.6	1.7	1.7
Real wages and incomes ^3/
	Hourly wage rates
		All employees	-5.9	-7.2	1.3	1.8	-2.9	-0.7	2.3
		Skilled and unskilled labor	-6.8	-6.8	1.6	0.4	-2.3	-1.1	1.5
	Disposable income per capita		-7.7	-4.8	2.5	-2.6	-6.0	-0.2	3.7

Source: The National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}Official estimates as of October 1995.

^{^2/}Planned hiring less layoffs.

^{^3/}Relative to the consumer price index.

Table A11.

Iceland: Selected Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Central Bank of Iceland; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

^{^1/}Annual average and end of month figures.

^{^2/}End of period figures.

^{^3/}Central Bank’s bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

Table A11.

Iceland: Selected Short-term Interest Rates

		Central Bank interest rates ^1/				Money market yields ^2/
		Repurchase agreements		Discount rate	Current account	Treasury bills ^3/			Interbank overnight loans
		Treasury bills	Other securities	Discount rate	Current account	3-month	6-month	12-month	Interbank overnight loans
1990		17.7	…	25.6	4.5	10.0	…	…	10.0
1991		20.4	…	23.9	5.5	12.5	…	…	13.5
1992		12.5	…	16.8	2.7	11.9	11.4	…	8.6
1993		8.2	8.6	14.1	3.3	5.4	5.6	5.9	5.7
1994		5.3	5.9	4.4	2.5	6.1	6.4	7.4	4.9
1994	Jan.	5.5	6.5	…	2.5	5.2	5.5	5.8	5.5
	Feb.	5.5	6.3	…	2.5	5.1	5.2	5.5	5.5
	Mar.	5.2	5.8	…	2.5	4.4	4.7	5.2	5.0
	Apr.	5.2	5.8	…	2.5	4.4	4.7	5.2	5.0
	May	5.2	5.8	…	2.5	4.5	4.7	5.2	4.6
	June	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.5	4.9	5.7	4.8
	July	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.7	5.1	5.8	4.8
	Aug.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.9	5.4	6.4	4.8
	Sep.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.9	5.5	6.5	4.8
	Oct.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	5.1	5.7	6.6	4.9
	Nov.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	5.2	5.8	6.9	4.8
	Dec.	5.4	6.0	4.7	2.5	6.1	6.4	7.4	4.9
1995	Jan.	6.3	6.4	5.5	2.8	6.6	7.2	8.1	5.9
	Feb.	6.7	6.8	5.5	2.8	7.0	7.6	8.3	6.5
	Mar.	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.2	7.7	8.3	6.9
	Apr.	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.5	7.8	8.3	6.9
	May	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.6	7.9	8.3	6.9
	June	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.2	7.6	8.1	6.9
	July	7.0	…	6.1	2.8	7.2	7.6	8.1	6.6
	Aug.	7.0	…	6.1	2.8	7.3	7.7	8.2	6.6
	Sep.	6.5	…	5.6	2.3	6.9	7.2	7.5	6.2
	Oct.	6.5	…	5.6	2.3	7.1	7.2	7.4	6.1
	Nov.	6.5	…	5.6	2.3	7.1	7.2	7.4	6.4

Source: Central Bank of Iceland; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

^{^1/}Annual average and end of month figures.

^{^2/}End of period figures.

^{^3/}Central Bank’s bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

Table A11.

Iceland: Selected Short-term Interest Rates

		Central Bank interest rates ^1/				Money market yields ^2/
		Repurchase agreements		Discount rate	Current account	Treasury bills ^3/			Interbank overnight loans
		Treasury bills	Other securities	Discount rate	Current account	3-month	6-month	12-month	Interbank overnight loans
1990		17.7	…	25.6	4.5	10.0	…	…	10.0
1991		20.4	…	23.9	5.5	12.5	…	…	13.5
1992		12.5	…	16.8	2.7	11.9	11.4	…	8.6
1993		8.2	8.6	14.1	3.3	5.4	5.6	5.9	5.7
1994		5.3	5.9	4.4	2.5	6.1	6.4	7.4	4.9
1994	Jan.	5.5	6.5	…	2.5	5.2	5.5	5.8	5.5
	Feb.	5.5	6.3	…	2.5	5.1	5.2	5.5	5.5
	Mar.	5.2	5.8	…	2.5	4.4	4.7	5.2	5.0
	Apr.	5.2	5.8	…	2.5	4.4	4.7	5.2	5.0
	May	5.2	5.8	…	2.5	4.5	4.7	5.2	4.6
	June	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.5	4.9	5.7	4.8
	July	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.7	5.1	5.8	4.8
	Aug.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.9	5.4	6.4	4.8
	Sep.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	4.9	5.5	6.5	4.8
	Oct.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	5.1	5.7	6.6	4.9
	Nov.	5.2	5.8	4.4	2.5	5.2	5.8	6.9	4.8
	Dec.	5.4	6.0	4.7	2.5	6.1	6.4	7.4	4.9
1995	Jan.	6.3	6.4	5.5	2.8	6.6	7.2	8.1	5.9
	Feb.	6.7	6.8	5.5	2.8	7.0	7.6	8.3	6.5
	Mar.	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.2	7.7	8.3	6.9
	Apr.	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.5	7.8	8.3	6.9
	May	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.6	7.9	8.3	6.9
	June	7.3	…	6.4	2.8	7.2	7.6	8.1	6.9
	July	7.0	…	6.1	2.8	7.2	7.6	8.1	6.6
	Aug.	7.0	…	6.1	2.8	7.3	7.7	8.2	6.6
	Sep.	6.5	…	5.6	2.3	6.9	7.2	7.5	6.2
	Oct.	6.5	…	5.6	2.3	7.1	7.2	7.4	6.1
	Nov.	6.5	…	5.6	2.3	7.1	7.2	7.4	6.4

Source: Central Bank of Iceland; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

^{^1/}Annual average and end of month figures.

^{^2/}End of period figures.

^{^3/}Central Bank’s bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

Table A12.

Iceland: Selected Long-term and Deposit Money Banks’ Interest Rates

Sources: Central Bank of Iceland; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

^{^1/}End of period figures.

^{^2/}Annual average or end of month figures.

^{^3/}Central Bank’s bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

^{^4/}Market makers’ bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

Table A12.

Iceland: Selected Long-term and Deposit Money Banks’ Interest Rates

		Secondary market for indexed bonds ^1/			Deposit money banks’ interest rates ^2/
		Governments bonds’ real yields		Housing bonds real yields 25-year ^4/	Discount rate on commercial bills	Average rate on non-indexed secured loans	Average real rate on securities	Average rate on general credit
		5-year ^3/	10-year	Housing bonds real yields 25-year ^4/	Discount rate on commercial bills	Average rate on non-indexed secured loans	Average real rate on securities	Average rate on general credit
1990		7.1	…	7.3	17.6	16.2	8.0	18.5
1991		8.3	…	8.4	19.5	17.5	9.1	18.3
1992		7.6	7.8	7.6	15.2	13.0	9.3	13.7
1993		4.9	4.9	5.4	16.9	14.1	9.1	15.0
1994		5.1	5.1	5.8	12.7	10.6	7.9	11.2
1994	Jan.	5.0	5.0	5.1	13.3	10.2	7.6	12.2
	Feb.	5.0	5.0	5.2	12.8	10.2	7.6	10.7
	Mar.	5.0	4.8	5.2	12.8	10.2	7.6	10.7
	Apr.	4.8	4.8	5.0	12.8	10.2	7.7	10.7
	May	4.8	4.8	5.0	12.4	10.2	7.7	10.8
	June	4.9	4.9	5.2	12.6	10.8	8.1	10.8
	July	5.0	5.1	5.4	12.6	10.8	8.1	11.4
	Aug.	5.0	5.1	5.3	12.6	10.8	8.1	11.4
	Sep.	5.1	5.1	5.3	12.6	10.8	8.2	11.4
	Oct.	5.1	5.1	5.8	12.6	10.8	8.2	11.4
	Nov.	5.1	5.1	5.8	12.6	10.9	8.2	11.4
	Dec	5.1	5.1	5.8	12.6	10.9	8.2	11.4
1995	Jan.	5.1	5.1	5.9	12.8	10.9	8.3	11.5
	Feb.	5.3	5.3	5.8	12.6	10.9	8.3	11.5
	Mar.	5.3	5.3	5.9	12.8	10.9	8.3	11.5
	Apr.	5.8	5.8	5.9	12.8	10.9	8.3	11.5
	May	5.8	5.8	5.9	13.2	11.8	8.9	11.6
	June	5.8	5.9	5.9	13.3	11.8	8.9	12.3
	July	5.9	5.9	5.9	13.3	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Aug.	5.9	5.9	5.9	13.3	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Sep.	5.9	5.9	6.0	13.3	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Oct.	5.7	5.7	5.6	13.2	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Nov.	5.6	5.6	5.6	13.2	12.1	8.8	12.4

Sources: Central Bank of Iceland; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

^{^1/}End of period figures.

^{^2/}Annual average or end of month figures.

^{^3/}Central Bank’s bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

^{^4/}Market makers’ bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

Table A12.

Iceland: Selected Long-term and Deposit Money Banks’ Interest Rates

		Secondary market for indexed bonds ^1/			Deposit money banks’ interest rates ^2/
		Governments bonds’ real yields		Housing bonds real yields 25-year ^4/	Discount rate on commercial bills	Average rate on non-indexed secured loans	Average real rate on securities	Average rate on general credit
		5-year ^3/	10-year	Housing bonds real yields 25-year ^4/	Discount rate on commercial bills	Average rate on non-indexed secured loans	Average real rate on securities	Average rate on general credit
1990		7.1	…	7.3	17.6	16.2	8.0	18.5
1991		8.3	…	8.4	19.5	17.5	9.1	18.3
1992		7.6	7.8	7.6	15.2	13.0	9.3	13.7
1993		4.9	4.9	5.4	16.9	14.1	9.1	15.0
1994		5.1	5.1	5.8	12.7	10.6	7.9	11.2
1994	Jan.	5.0	5.0	5.1	13.3	10.2	7.6	12.2
	Feb.	5.0	5.0	5.2	12.8	10.2	7.6	10.7
	Mar.	5.0	4.8	5.2	12.8	10.2	7.6	10.7
	Apr.	4.8	4.8	5.0	12.8	10.2	7.7	10.7
	May	4.8	4.8	5.0	12.4	10.2	7.7	10.8
	June	4.9	4.9	5.2	12.6	10.8	8.1	10.8
	July	5.0	5.1	5.4	12.6	10.8	8.1	11.4
	Aug.	5.0	5.1	5.3	12.6	10.8	8.1	11.4
	Sep.	5.1	5.1	5.3	12.6	10.8	8.2	11.4
	Oct.	5.1	5.1	5.8	12.6	10.8	8.2	11.4
	Nov.	5.1	5.1	5.8	12.6	10.9	8.2	11.4
	Dec	5.1	5.1	5.8	12.6	10.9	8.2	11.4
1995	Jan.	5.1	5.1	5.9	12.8	10.9	8.3	11.5
	Feb.	5.3	5.3	5.8	12.6	10.9	8.3	11.5
	Mar.	5.3	5.3	5.9	12.8	10.9	8.3	11.5
	Apr.	5.8	5.8	5.9	12.8	10.9	8.3	11.5
	May	5.8	5.8	5.9	13.2	11.8	8.9	11.6
	June	5.8	5.9	5.9	13.3	11.8	8.9	12.3
	July	5.9	5.9	5.9	13.3	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Aug.	5.9	5.9	5.9	13.3	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Sep.	5.9	5.9	6.0	13.3	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Oct.	5.7	5.7	5.6	13.2	11.9	8.9	12.4
	Nov.	5.6	5.6	5.6	13.2	12.1	8.8	12.4

Sources: Central Bank of Iceland; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

^{^1/}End of period figures.

^{^2/}Annual average or end of month figures.

^{^3/}Central Bank’s bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

^{^4/}Market makers’ bids on the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

Table A13.

Iceland: Monetary Survey

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Deposits of public depository funds and Investment Credit Funds.

Table A13.

Iceland: Monetary Survey

				1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
				Dec.	Dec.	Dec.	Dec.	Dec.	Mar.	June.	Sep.	Oct.
				(In billions of krónur)
Net foreign assets				-11.3	-11.1	-8.1	-7.7	-8.6	-3.0	2.6	-0.0	-0.2
	Net short-term foreign assets			25.8	27.6	34.5	34.5	25.0	29.0	32.4	27.8	29.0
	Long-term foreign debt			-31.8	-33.5	-37.6	-38.9	-31.0	-29.1	-27.1	-25.1	-25.8
	Foreign-produced loans			-5.3	-5.3	-5.0	-3.2	-2.6	-2.9	-2.6	-2.7	-3.4
Total credit, including relending				181.4	203.8	210.4	229.1	235.4	231.3	228.9	235.7	232.7
	By use:
		Government		22.0	27.6	22.3	31.6	33.8	32.5	30.2	34.9	…
		Municipalities		4.7	5.3	5.4	6.2	7.6	7.5	7.2	7.9	…
		Non-bank financial institutions		6.6	7.0	6.5	7.6	12.3	12.2	12.6	13.4	…
		Enterprises		110.1	119.4	126.2	130.1	125.0	121.0	120.0	120.0	…
		Households and unclassified		37.9	44.6	50.0	53.6	56.7	58.1	59.0	59.7	…
	By source:
		Credit from Central Bank		…	…	-1.1	3.0	18.4	18.7	13.8	15.2	13.4
		Credit from deposit institutions		…	…	161.9	174.3	181.5	179.0	182.5	186.4	190.6
		Foreign funds relent by Central Bank		…	…	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
		Foreign funds relent by deposit institutions		…	…	39.8	41.4	31.8	30.2	27.1	24.8	24.0
		Treasury bills		…	…	9.6	10.0	3.4	3.2	5.3	9.3	4.6
Miscellaneous public funds ^1/				-3.8	-4.6	-4.6	-4.7	-4.8	-3.9	-4.7	-3.5	-2.3
Other items, net				-16.6	-18.6	-21.1	-28.0	-29.8	-32.9	-32.2	-34.2	-34.9
Money and quasi-money (M3)				129.8	148.4	154.1	164.1	167.9	165.4	167.5	171.6	168.5
	Time deposits			24.1	31.7	37.3	34.2	54.2	53.9	52.8	57.0	57.7
	Money supply and general savings (M2)			105.7	116.7	116.8	129.9	113.7	111.5	114.8	114.6	110.8
		General savings deposits
		Money supply (M1)		24.6	29.6	29.9	31.6	35.0	33.0	35.6	37.0	34.5
			Demand deposits	21.6	26.3	26.4	27.7	30.3	28.9	31.0	32.6	…
			Notes and coins in circulation	3.1	3.2	3.6	3.9	4.7	4.1	4.5	4.4	4.1
Bonds, etc				17.5	19.2	20.6	22.7	22.3	24.8	25.9	25.2	25.6
	Indexed and exchange rate linked			16.4	17.5	17.5	19.3	20.7	17.7	17.6	18.8	…
	Other			1.0	1.7	3.1	3.4	1.7	7.1	8.3	6.5	…
Domestic borrowing				2.4	1.8	2.0	1.9	1.8	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2
Memorandum items:				(Twelve-month percent change)
Total credit, including relending				9.6	12.4	3.2	8.9	2.8	2.2	-1.9	0.1	-0.3
		of which, by use:
			Government	35.2	25.3	-19.4	41.8	7.1	17.3	-11.3	-11.1	…
			Enterprises	2.4	8.5	5.7	3.1	-4.0	-6.0	-4.4	-2.1	…
			Households and unclassified	19.9	17.6	12.3	7.1	5.8	7.4	6.6	8.5	…
	Money and quasi-money (M3)			14.6	14.4	3.8	6.5	2.3	-0.1	2.5	3.0	2.5
		Money supply and general savings (M2)		14.2	10.4	0.1	11.2	-12.5	-14.8	-11.7	-13.5	-14.7
			Money supply (M1)	24.5	19.9	1.3	5.4	10.7	-1.9	7.9	8.8	5.6

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Deposits of public depository funds and Investment Credit Funds.

Table A13.

Iceland: Monetary Survey

				1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
				Dec.	Dec.	Dec.	Dec.	Dec.	Mar.	June.	Sep.	Oct.
				(In billions of krónur)
Net foreign assets				-11.3	-11.1	-8.1	-7.7	-8.6	-3.0	2.6	-0.0	-0.2
	Net short-term foreign assets			25.8	27.6	34.5	34.5	25.0	29.0	32.4	27.8	29.0
	Long-term foreign debt			-31.8	-33.5	-37.6	-38.9	-31.0	-29.1	-27.1	-25.1	-25.8
	Foreign-produced loans			-5.3	-5.3	-5.0	-3.2	-2.6	-2.9	-2.6	-2.7	-3.4
Total credit, including relending				181.4	203.8	210.4	229.1	235.4	231.3	228.9	235.7	232.7
	By use:
		Government		22.0	27.6	22.3	31.6	33.8	32.5	30.2	34.9	…
		Municipalities		4.7	5.3	5.4	6.2	7.6	7.5	7.2	7.9	…
		Non-bank financial institutions		6.6	7.0	6.5	7.6	12.3	12.2	12.6	13.4	…
		Enterprises		110.1	119.4	126.2	130.1	125.0	121.0	120.0	120.0	…
		Households and unclassified		37.9	44.6	50.0	53.6	56.7	58.1	59.0	59.7	…
	By source:
		Credit from Central Bank		…	…	-1.1	3.0	18.4	18.7	13.8	15.2	13.4
		Credit from deposit institutions		…	…	161.9	174.3	181.5	179.0	182.5	186.4	190.6
		Foreign funds relent by Central Bank		…	…	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
		Foreign funds relent by deposit institutions		…	…	39.8	41.4	31.8	30.2	27.1	24.8	24.0
		Treasury bills		…	…	9.6	10.0	3.4	3.2	5.3	9.3	4.6
Miscellaneous public funds ^1/				-3.8	-4.6	-4.6	-4.7	-4.8	-3.9	-4.7	-3.5	-2.3
Other items, net				-16.6	-18.6	-21.1	-28.0	-29.8	-32.9	-32.2	-34.2	-34.9
Money and quasi-money (M3)				129.8	148.4	154.1	164.1	167.9	165.4	167.5	171.6	168.5
	Time deposits			24.1	31.7	37.3	34.2	54.2	53.9	52.8	57.0	57.7
	Money supply and general savings (M2)			105.7	116.7	116.8	129.9	113.7	111.5	114.8	114.6	110.8
		General savings deposits
		Money supply (M1)		24.6	29.6	29.9	31.6	35.0	33.0	35.6	37.0	34.5
			Demand deposits	21.6	26.3	26.4	27.7	30.3	28.9	31.0	32.6	…
			Notes and coins in circulation	3.1	3.2	3.6	3.9	4.7	4.1	4.5	4.4	4.1
Bonds, etc				17.5	19.2	20.6	22.7	22.3	24.8	25.9	25.2	25.6
	Indexed and exchange rate linked			16.4	17.5	17.5	19.3	20.7	17.7	17.6	18.8	…
	Other			1.0	1.7	3.1	3.4	1.7	7.1	8.3	6.5	…
Domestic borrowing				2.4	1.8	2.0	1.9	1.8	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2
Memorandum items:				(Twelve-month percent change)
Total credit, including relending				9.6	12.4	3.2	8.9	2.8	2.2	-1.9	0.1	-0.3
		of which, by use:
			Government	35.2	25.3	-19.4	41.8	7.1	17.3	-11.3	-11.1	…
			Enterprises	2.4	8.5	5.7	3.1	-4.0	-6.0	-4.4	-2.1	…
			Households and unclassified	19.9	17.6	12.3	7.1	5.8	7.4	6.6	8.5	…
	Money and quasi-money (M3)			14.6	14.4	3.8	6.5	2.3	-0.1	2.5	3.0	2.5
		Money supply and general savings (M2)		14.2	10.4	0.1	11.2	-12.5	-14.8	-11.7	-13.5	-14.7
			Money supply (M1)	24.5	19.9	1.3	5.4	10.7	-1.9	7.9	8.8	5.6

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Deposits of public depository funds and Investment Credit Funds.

Table A14.

Iceland: Accounts of the Central Bank

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A14.

Iceland: Accounts of the Central Bank

				1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
				Dec	Dec	Dec	Dec	Mar.	June	Sep.	Oct.
						(In billions of krónur)
Net foreign assets				24.1	31.0	28.7	15.0	17.5	21.7	17.9	18.9
Net domestic assets				-4.0	-12.9	-12.7	1.2	-2.1	-6.3	-3.7	-4.9
	Net claims on Government			7.3	0.2	4.4	13.8	12.3	9.4	10.7	9.8
		Net claims on Treasury		8.7	-0.2	4.9	14.3	12.9	9.9	11.3	10.3
			Current accounts	…	-2.3	-3.8	-3.6	-0.7	-1.4	-4.2	-4.9
			Foreign currency accounts	…	-2.2	-2.5	-3.2	-2.9	-2.8	-2.8	-3.0
			Treasury bills	…	1.0	2.2	9.6	6.3	2.5	5.7	6.0
			Government notes	…	0.5	0.1	2.2	1.8	1.7	1.4	3.1
			Government bonds	…	2.8	8.7	9.4	8.4	9.9	11.3	9.0
			Other bonds	…	--	0.2	--	--	--	--	--
		Net claims on Government inst.		-1.4	0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5	-0.6	-0.6
	Claims on deposit money banks			4.7	5.3	4.0	5.6	3.9	2.4	2.5	2.4
		Discount bills		--	0.2	--	--	--	--	--	--
		Advances		--		--	--	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.1
		Repurchase agreements		1.4	1.4	1.3	3.4	1.8	0.2	0.6	0.8
		Bonds		1.9	2.0	1.4	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
		Foreign currency discount quota		1.5	1.7	1.2	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.9	0.8
	Claims on Investment Credit Funds			0.6	0.5	0.6	4.5	4.5	4.3	4.3	3.4
	Claims on municipalities and others			0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3
	Public depository funds			-3.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0
	Deposits of Investment Credit Funds			-1.7	-4.2	-4.4	-4.8	-3.9	-4.7	-3.5	-2.3
	Other items, net			-12.4	-14.8	-17.4	-18.3	-19.2	-18.0	-18.1	-18.5
Base money				20.0	18.1	15.9	16.2	15.4	15.4	14.2	14.0
	Notes and coins in circulation			3.2	3.6	3.9	4.7	4.1	4.5	4.4	4.1
	Bank reserves			16.7	14.5	12.0	11.5	11.3	10.9	9.8	9.9
		of which: required reserves		10.4	9.3	6.9	7.1	6.4	6.6	6.8	6.7
Memorandum items:						(Twelve-month percent change)
	Base money			9.6	-9.5	-12.1	1.6	-7.2	0.4	1.3	2.9
					(Change in percent of beginning of year base money)
	Net foreign assets			3.6	35.0	-13.2	-86.2	15.8	41.7	18.2	24.2
	Net domestic assets			5.8	-44.7	1.0	87.6	-20.2	-46.5	-30.4	-37.7
		Net claims on Government		…	-35.8	23.5	59.1	-9.6	-27.8	-19.5	-25.2
		Claims on deposit money banks		…	3.0	-7.6	10.4	-10.8	-19.7	-19.0	-19.8
	Base money			9.6	-9.5	-12.1	1.6	-4.5	-4.8	-12.2	-13.6
		Notes and coins in circulation		1.0	1.8	1.7	5.0	-3.4	-1.0	-1.8	-3.7
		Bank reserves		8.7	-11.2	-13.8	-3.4	-1.1	-3.8	-10.5	-9.8
			of which: required reserves	-2.9	-5.8	-12.8	0.8	-4.0	-2.8	-1.6	-2.0

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A14.

Iceland: Accounts of the Central Bank

				1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
				Dec	Dec	Dec	Dec	Mar.	June	Sep.	Oct.
						(In billions of krónur)
Net foreign assets				24.1	31.0	28.7	15.0	17.5	21.7	17.9	18.9
Net domestic assets				-4.0	-12.9	-12.7	1.2	-2.1	-6.3	-3.7	-4.9
	Net claims on Government			7.3	0.2	4.4	13.8	12.3	9.4	10.7	9.8
		Net claims on Treasury		8.7	-0.2	4.9	14.3	12.9	9.9	11.3	10.3
			Current accounts	…	-2.3	-3.8	-3.6	-0.7	-1.4	-4.2	-4.9
			Foreign currency accounts	…	-2.2	-2.5	-3.2	-2.9	-2.8	-2.8	-3.0
			Treasury bills	…	1.0	2.2	9.6	6.3	2.5	5.7	6.0
			Government notes	…	0.5	0.1	2.2	1.8	1.7	1.4	3.1
			Government bonds	…	2.8	8.7	9.4	8.4	9.9	11.3	9.0
			Other bonds	…	--	0.2	--	--	--	--	--
		Net claims on Government inst.		-1.4	0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5	-0.6	-0.6
	Claims on deposit money banks			4.7	5.3	4.0	5.6	3.9	2.4	2.5	2.4
		Discount bills		--	0.2	--	--	--	--	--	--
		Advances		--		--	--	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.1
		Repurchase agreements		1.4	1.4	1.3	3.4	1.8	0.2	0.6	0.8
		Bonds		1.9	2.0	1.4	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
		Foreign currency discount quota		1.5	1.7	1.2	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.9	0.8
	Claims on Investment Credit Funds			0.6	0.5	0.6	4.5	4.5	4.3	4.3	3.4
	Claims on municipalities and others			0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3
	Public depository funds			-3.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0
	Deposits of Investment Credit Funds			-1.7	-4.2	-4.4	-4.8	-3.9	-4.7	-3.5	-2.3
	Other items, net			-12.4	-14.8	-17.4	-18.3	-19.2	-18.0	-18.1	-18.5
Base money				20.0	18.1	15.9	16.2	15.4	15.4	14.2	14.0
	Notes and coins in circulation			3.2	3.6	3.9	4.7	4.1	4.5	4.4	4.1
	Bank reserves			16.7	14.5	12.0	11.5	11.3	10.9	9.8	9.9
		of which: required reserves		10.4	9.3	6.9	7.1	6.4	6.6	6.8	6.7
Memorandum items:						(Twelve-month percent change)
	Base money			9.6	-9.5	-12.1	1.6	-7.2	0.4	1.3	2.9
					(Change in percent of beginning of year base money)
	Net foreign assets			3.6	35.0	-13.2	-86.2	15.8	41.7	18.2	24.2
	Net domestic assets			5.8	-44.7	1.0	87.6	-20.2	-46.5	-30.4	-37.7
		Net claims on Government		…	-35.8	23.5	59.1	-9.6	-27.8	-19.5	-25.2
		Claims on deposit money banks		…	3.0	-7.6	10.4	-10.8	-19.7	-19.0	-19.8
	Base money			9.6	-9.5	-12.1	1.6	-4.5	-4.8	-12.2	-13.6
		Notes and coins in circulation		1.0	1.8	1.7	5.0	-3.4	-1.0	-1.8	-3.7
		Bank reserves		8.7	-11.2	-13.8	-3.4	-1.1	-3.8	-10.5	-9.8
			of which: required reserves	-2.9	-5.8	-12.8	0.8	-4.0	-2.8	-1.6	-2.0

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A15.

Iceland: Credit System

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A15.

Iceland: Credit System

				1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
									Mar.	June
				(In billions of krónur)
Total assets				524.9	605.6	671.7	749.2	784.9	780.9	795.8
		Central Government		67.5	83.5	97.5	118.0	127.1	134.4	135.3
		Municipalities		22.7	25.6	28.5	33.5	36.9	33.8	35.8
		Industries		264.0	285.2	306.6	333.9	329.3	312.6	321.7
		Households		170.7	211.3	239.1	263.8	291.7	300.1	303.1
Total liabilities				524.9	605.6	671.7	749.2	784.9	780.9	795.8
	Domestic liabilities			353.9	419.8	455.6	499.2	544.5	542.5	563.9
		Voluntary sources		167.8	201.5	210.8	231.4	246.4	234.7	250.0
			Notes and deposits	120.1	136.3	139.6	148.9	152.1	149.8	152.5
			Others	47.7	65.2	71.2	82.5	94.3	84.9	97.5
		Institutional sources		186.1	218.3	244.8	267.8	298.0	307.8	313.8
			Pension funds	125.6	154.0	177.5	204.5	229.7	236.5	246.5
			Others	60.5	64.3	67.4	63.2	68.4	71.3	67.3
	Net foreign liabilities			171.0	185.8	216.1	250.0	240.5	238.4	232.0
Memorandum items:				(Twelve-month percent change)
Total assets				12.5	15.4	10.9	11.5	4.8	2.7	3.8
	loans to:
		Central Government		12.5	23.8	16.7	21.0	7.7	2.3	11.6
		Municipalities		5.7	12.9	11.4	17.5	10.0	4.7	2.5
		Industries		5.9	8.0	7.5	8.9	-1.4	-3.9	-3.2
		Households		25.8	23.7	13.2	10.4	10.6	10.6	9.0

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A15.

Iceland: Credit System

				1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
									Mar.	June
				(In billions of krónur)
Total assets				524.9	605.6	671.7	749.2	784.9	780.9	795.8
		Central Government		67.5	83.5	97.5	118.0	127.1	134.4	135.3
		Municipalities		22.7	25.6	28.5	33.5	36.9	33.8	35.8
		Industries		264.0	285.2	306.6	333.9	329.3	312.6	321.7
		Households		170.7	211.3	239.1	263.8	291.7	300.1	303.1
Total liabilities				524.9	605.6	671.7	749.2	784.9	780.9	795.8
	Domestic liabilities			353.9	419.8	455.6	499.2	544.5	542.5	563.9
		Voluntary sources		167.8	201.5	210.8	231.4	246.4	234.7	250.0
			Notes and deposits	120.1	136.3	139.6	148.9	152.1	149.8	152.5
			Others	47.7	65.2	71.2	82.5	94.3	84.9	97.5
		Institutional sources		186.1	218.3	244.8	267.8	298.0	307.8	313.8
			Pension funds	125.6	154.0	177.5	204.5	229.7	236.5	246.5
			Others	60.5	64.3	67.4	63.2	68.4	71.3	67.3
	Net foreign liabilities			171.0	185.8	216.1	250.0	240.5	238.4	232.0
Memorandum items:				(Twelve-month percent change)
Total assets				12.5	15.4	10.9	11.5	4.8	2.7	3.8
	loans to:
		Central Government		12.5	23.8	16.7	21.0	7.7	2.3	11.6
		Municipalities		5.7	12.9	11.4	17.5	10.0	4.7	2.5
		Industries		5.9	8.0	7.5	8.9	-1.4	-3.9	-3.2
		Households		25.8	23.7	13.2	10.4	10.6	10.6	9.0

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A16.

Iceland: Balance of Payments en Capital Account

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Equivalent to changes in the central bank’s net international reserves (minus sign indicating a decrease).

Table A16.

Iceland: Balance of Payments en Capital Account

				1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
									Q1	Q2	Q3
				(In billions of krónur)
Direct investment, net				-0.2	1.6	0.5	0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.1
Portfolio investment, net				--	1.3	-0.9	-2.8	-7.5	-0.9	-0.7	-1.2
New long-term foreign borrowing				27.7	29.6	32.2	29.9	33.8	14.3	7.0	7.0
	Public sector			8.2	14.9	19.7	13.8	25.3	13.8	5.0	1.5
	Financial institutions			9.1	9.2	9.8	15.0	6.3	0.5	2.0	3.3
	Private sector			10.5	5.5	2.7	1.2	2.2	--	--	2.2
Amortization of long-term debt				-11.4	-15.0	-19.1	-23.6	-40.0	-8.9	-7.4	-5.3
	Public sector			-2.9	-3.9	-9.1	-7.8	-15.5	-3.0	-0.7	-2.9
	Financial institutions			-6.2	-7.2	-7.5	-12.5	-18.3	-3.2	-6.0	-2.2
	Private sector			-2.3	-3.9	-2.5	-3.3	-6.2	-2.8	-0.7	-0.3
Short-term capital movements				-4.0	1.5	3.0	-7.3	-8.0	0.6	0.8	-4.1
	Public sector			-0.1	-1.4	1.5	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.1
	Financial institutions			-2.0	2.0	0.8	-3.1	-6.8	1.0	1.1	-2.6
	Private sector			-1.9	0.9	0.7	-3.9	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3	-1.7
Deposit money banks’ net foreign liquidity				-0.1	-1.2	0.5	-1.9	-0.8	-1.8	0.8	1.7
Capital account				12.1	17.8	16.2	-5.3	-22.6	3.3	0.3	-1.7
Balance on current account				-7.7	-18.3	-12.4	0.2	7.9	1.4	0.6	3.9
Net errors and omissions				-0.0	1.3	0.7	-0.6	0.7	-2.5	3.3	-5.8
Overall balance of payments ^1/				4.3	0.7	4.5	-5.7	-14.0	2.2	4.2	-3.6
	Central Bank total reserves			4.3	0.9	4.2	-4.1	-11.2	-1.5	2.6	-1.0
	Central Bank short-term liabilities			0.0	-0.2	0.3	-1.7	-2.8	3.6	1.6	-2.7
Memorandum items:
	Net foreign borrowing			16.4	14.6	13.1	6.4	-6.2	5.4	-0.4	1.7
		Public sector		5.3	10.9	10.6	6.0	9.8	10.9	4.3	-1.4
		Financial institutions		2.9	2.0	2.3	2.5	-12.0	-2.7	-3.9	1.1
		Private sector		8.2	1.6	0.2	-2.1	-3.9	-2.8	-0.7	1.9
				(In percent of GDP)
	Capital, account			3.3	4.5	4.1	-1.3	-5.2	…	…	…
		Public sector		1.4	2.4	3.0	1.4	2.2	…	…	…
			Long-term	1.4	2.8	2.7	1.5	2.3	…	…	…
			Short-term	-0.0	-0.3	0.4	-0.1	-0.0	…	…	…
		Private sector and financial institutions		1.9	2.1	1.0	-2.7	-7.4	…	…	…
			Long-term	3.0	1.3	0.8	0.1	-3.7	…	…	…
			Short-term	-1.1	0.7	0.3	-2.8	-3.7	…	…	…
	Current account			-2.1	-4.6	-3.1	0.0	1.8	…	…	…
	Net errors and omissions			-0.0	0.3	0.2	-0.1	0.2	…	…	…
	Overall balance of payments ^1/			1.2	0.2	1.1	-1.4	-3.2	…	…	…

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Equivalent to changes in the central bank’s net international reserves (minus sign indicating a decrease).

Table A16.

Iceland: Balance of Payments en Capital Account

				1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
									Q1	Q2	Q3
				(In billions of krónur)
Direct investment, net				-0.2	1.6	0.5	0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.1
Portfolio investment, net				--	1.3	-0.9	-2.8	-7.5	-0.9	-0.7	-1.2
New long-term foreign borrowing				27.7	29.6	32.2	29.9	33.8	14.3	7.0	7.0
	Public sector			8.2	14.9	19.7	13.8	25.3	13.8	5.0	1.5
	Financial institutions			9.1	9.2	9.8	15.0	6.3	0.5	2.0	3.3
	Private sector			10.5	5.5	2.7	1.2	2.2	--	--	2.2
Amortization of long-term debt				-11.4	-15.0	-19.1	-23.6	-40.0	-8.9	-7.4	-5.3
	Public sector			-2.9	-3.9	-9.1	-7.8	-15.5	-3.0	-0.7	-2.9
	Financial institutions			-6.2	-7.2	-7.5	-12.5	-18.3	-3.2	-6.0	-2.2
	Private sector			-2.3	-3.9	-2.5	-3.3	-6.2	-2.8	-0.7	-0.3
Short-term capital movements				-4.0	1.5	3.0	-7.3	-8.0	0.6	0.8	-4.1
	Public sector			-0.1	-1.4	1.5	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.1
	Financial institutions			-2.0	2.0	0.8	-3.1	-6.8	1.0	1.1	-2.6
	Private sector			-1.9	0.9	0.7	-3.9	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3	-1.7
Deposit money banks’ net foreign liquidity				-0.1	-1.2	0.5	-1.9	-0.8	-1.8	0.8	1.7
Capital account				12.1	17.8	16.2	-5.3	-22.6	3.3	0.3	-1.7
Balance on current account				-7.7	-18.3	-12.4	0.2	7.9	1.4	0.6	3.9
Net errors and omissions				-0.0	1.3	0.7	-0.6	0.7	-2.5	3.3	-5.8
Overall balance of payments ^1/				4.3	0.7	4.5	-5.7	-14.0	2.2	4.2	-3.6
	Central Bank total reserves			4.3	0.9	4.2	-4.1	-11.2	-1.5	2.6	-1.0
	Central Bank short-term liabilities			0.0	-0.2	0.3	-1.7	-2.8	3.6	1.6	-2.7
Memorandum items:
	Net foreign borrowing			16.4	14.6	13.1	6.4	-6.2	5.4	-0.4	1.7
		Public sector		5.3	10.9	10.6	6.0	9.8	10.9	4.3	-1.4
		Financial institutions		2.9	2.0	2.3	2.5	-12.0	-2.7	-3.9	1.1
		Private sector		8.2	1.6	0.2	-2.1	-3.9	-2.8	-0.7	1.9
				(In percent of GDP)
	Capital, account			3.3	4.5	4.1	-1.3	-5.2	…	…	…
		Public sector		1.4	2.4	3.0	1.4	2.2	…	…	…
			Long-term	1.4	2.8	2.7	1.5	2.3	…	…	…
			Short-term	-0.0	-0.3	0.4	-0.1	-0.0	…	…	…
		Private sector and financial institutions		1.9	2.1	1.0	-2.7	-7.4	…	…	…
			Long-term	3.0	1.3	0.8	0.1	-3.7	…	…	…
			Short-term	-1.1	0.7	0.3	-2.8	-3.7	…	…	…
	Current account			-2.1	-4.6	-3.1	0.0	1.8	…	…	…
	Net errors and omissions			-0.0	0.3	0.2	-0.1	0.2	…	…	…
	Overall balance of payments ^1/			1.2	0.2	1.1	-1.4	-3.2	…	…	…

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Equivalent to changes in the central bank’s net international reserves (minus sign indicating a decrease).

Table A17.

Iceland: Foreign Reserves of the Central Bank

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A17.

Iceland: Foreign Reserves of the Central Bank

			1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
								Qtr1	Qtr2	Qtr3
			(In billions of krónur. end of period)
Foreign assets			24.3	25.2	32.0	31.3	24.4	22.7	25.3	25.3
	Gross foreign reserves		23.6	24.5	31.7	31.1	20.3	18.7	21.3	20.3
		Gold	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
		SDRs	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
		Reserve position in IMF	0.3	0.3	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
		Deposits and securities	23.2	24.1	30.6	29.9	19.1	17.7	20.3	19.3
	Other foreign assets		0.7	0.7	0.3	0.2	4.1	4.0	4.0	5.0
Short-term liabilities			0.8	1.2	1.0	2.7	9.4	5.2	3.6	7.4
Net foreign reserves			23.5	24.0	31.0	28.6	15.0	17.5	21.7	17.9
			(In months of imports of goods and non-factor services)
Gross foreign reserves			2.4	2.2	3.1	3.0	1.8	1.5	1.7	1.6
Net foreign reserves			2.3	2.2	3.0	2.8	1.3	1.4	1.7	1.4

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A17.

Iceland: Foreign Reserves of the Central Bank

			1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
								Qtr1	Qtr2	Qtr3
			(In billions of krónur. end of period)
Foreign assets			24.3	25.2	32.0	31.3	24.4	22.7	25.3	25.3
	Gross foreign reserves		23.6	24.5	31.7	31.1	20.3	18.7	21.3	20.3
		Gold	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
		SDRs	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
		Reserve position in IMF	0.3	0.3	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
		Deposits and securities	23.2	24.1	30.6	29.9	19.1	17.7	20.3	19.3
	Other foreign assets		0.7	0.7	0.3	0.2	4.1	4.0	4.0	5.0
Short-term liabilities			0.8	1.2	1.0	2.7	9.4	5.2	3.6	7.4
Net foreign reserves			23.5	24.0	31.0	28.6	15.0	17.5	21.7	17.9
			(In months of imports of goods and non-factor services)
Gross foreign reserves			2.4	2.2	3.1	3.0	1.8	1.5	1.7	1.6
Net foreign reserves			2.3	2.2	3.0	2.8	1.3	1.4	1.7	1.4

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

Table A18.

Iceland: Gross External Debt

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Ratio of end of period outstanding debt to GDP of current year.

Table A18.

Iceland: Gross External Debt

			1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Sept.
			(In millions of krónur. end of period)
Long-term debt			112.7	166.2	176.7	191.4	228.1	265.0	257.1	261.4
	Public sector		66.5	93.8	96.9	109.5	133.5	158.4	168.0	181.4
		Central government	40.1	58.2	59.5	67.7	86.7	101.9	113.2	128.6
		Central Bank	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	--	--	--
		Government enterprises	22.5	29.2	31.3	35.7	38.7	46.6	45.4	44.1
		Municipalities	3.7	6.2	5.9	6.0	8.0	10.0	9.4	8.7
	Private sector		46.2	72.4	79.8	81.9	94.6	106.6	89.1	80.0
		Commercial banks	16.4	27.0	25.3	25.1	26.3	27.6	22.1	15.7
		Investment credit funds	20.9	31.5	33.9	35.2	43.7	53.7	46.6	46.0
		Nonfinancial enterprises	8.9	13.9	20.6	21.6	24.6	25.3	20.5	18.3
Short-term debt, net			28.0	26.7	24.0	26.4	27.9	26.2	26.4	…
Foreign assets			27.1	36.4	42.1	42.6	47.6	52.4	54.9	…
Net external position			113.6	156.5	158.6	175.2	208.4	238.8	228.6	225.9
			(In percent)
Long-term debt/GDP ^1/			43.9	53.9	48.6	48.3	57.3	64.5	59.3	57.5
Debt service/total exports of goods and services			17.0	19.7	20.3	23.2	26.7	28.5	35.2	24.9

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Ratio of end of period outstanding debt to GDP of current year.

Table A18.

Iceland: Gross External Debt

			1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Sept.
			(In millions of krónur. end of period)
Long-term debt			112.7	166.2	176.7	191.4	228.1	265.0	257.1	261.4
	Public sector		66.5	93.8	96.9	109.5	133.5	158.4	168.0	181.4
		Central government	40.1	58.2	59.5	67.7	86.7	101.9	113.2	128.6
		Central Bank	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	--	--	--
		Government enterprises	22.5	29.2	31.3	35.7	38.7	46.6	45.4	44.1
		Municipalities	3.7	6.2	5.9	6.0	8.0	10.0	9.4	8.7
	Private sector		46.2	72.4	79.8	81.9	94.6	106.6	89.1	80.0
		Commercial banks	16.4	27.0	25.3	25.1	26.3	27.6	22.1	15.7
		Investment credit funds	20.9	31.5	33.9	35.2	43.7	53.7	46.6	46.0
		Nonfinancial enterprises	8.9	13.9	20.6	21.6	24.6	25.3	20.5	18.3
Short-term debt, net			28.0	26.7	24.0	26.4	27.9	26.2	26.4	…
Foreign assets			27.1	36.4	42.1	42.6	47.6	52.4	54.9	…
Net external position			113.6	156.5	158.6	175.2	208.4	238.8	228.6	225.9
			(In percent)
Long-term debt/GDP ^1/			43.9	53.9	48.6	48.3	57.3	64.5	59.3	57.5
Debt service/total exports of goods and services			17.0	19.7	20.3	23.2	26.7	28.5	35.2	24.9

Source: Central Bank of Iceland.

^{^1/}Ratio of end of period outstanding debt to GDP of current year.

Table A19.

Iceland: Treasury Budget

(Cash basis)

Source: Ministry of Finance. Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996, October 1995.

^{^2/}Taxes counted under “revenues”, but not yet paid.

Table A19.

Iceland: Treasury Budget

(Cash basis)

		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Budget Bill	1995 Est.	1996 Budget ^1/ Bill
		(In millions of krónur)
Revenue		80,098	92,453	99,953	103,447	103,220	109,602	112,092	114,420	119,889
Expenditure		86,056	96,899	112,487	110,607	112,863	116,986	119,528	123,317	123,769
Revenue balance		-5,958	-4,446	-12,534	-7,160	-9,643	-7,384	-7,436	-8,897	-3,880
Net medium- and long-term lending (-)		722	522	1,954	2,062	871	9,477	960	9,430	-650
Equity holdings		-70	123	233	43	410	158	500	150	500
Short-term Lending, net ^2/		889	2,079	-73	-2,090	-226	-2,248	500	500	500
Net borrowing requirement		7,499	7,170	14,648	7,175	10,698	14,771	9,396	18,977	4,230
		(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue	26.0	25.4	25.2	26.0	25.1	25.3	24.9	25.2	25.0
	Expenditure	27.9	26.6	28.4	27.8	27.5	27.0	26.5	27.1	25.8
	Revenue balance	-1.9	-1.2	-3.2	-1.8	-2.3	-1.7	-1.6	-2.0	-0.8
	Net borrowing requirement	2.6	2.0	3.7	1.8	2.6	3.4	2.1	4.2	0.9

Source: Ministry of Finance. Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996, October 1995.

^{^2/}Taxes counted under “revenues”, but not yet paid.

Table A19.

Iceland: Treasury Budget

(Cash basis)

		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Budget Bill	1995 Est.	1996 Budget ^1/ Bill
		(In millions of krónur)
Revenue		80,098	92,453	99,953	103,447	103,220	109,602	112,092	114,420	119,889
Expenditure		86,056	96,899	112,487	110,607	112,863	116,986	119,528	123,317	123,769
Revenue balance		-5,958	-4,446	-12,534	-7,160	-9,643	-7,384	-7,436	-8,897	-3,880
Net medium- and long-term lending (-)		722	522	1,954	2,062	871	9,477	960	9,430	-650
Equity holdings		-70	123	233	43	410	158	500	150	500
Short-term Lending, net ^2/		889	2,079	-73	-2,090	-226	-2,248	500	500	500
Net borrowing requirement		7,499	7,170	14,648	7,175	10,698	14,771	9,396	18,977	4,230
		(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue	26.0	25.4	25.2	26.0	25.1	25.3	24.9	25.2	25.0
	Expenditure	27.9	26.6	28.4	27.8	27.5	27.0	26.5	27.1	25.8
	Revenue balance	-1.9	-1.2	-3.2	-1.8	-2.3	-1.7	-1.6	-2.0	-0.8
	Net borrowing requirement	2.6	2.0	3.7	1.8	2.6	3.4	2.1	4.2	0.9

Source: Ministry of Finance. Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996, October 1995.

^{^2/}Taxes counted under “revenues”, but not yet paid.

Table A20.

Iceland: Treasury Revenue and Expenditure by Category

(Cash basis)

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996. October 1995.

Table A20.

Iceland: Treasury Revenue and Expenditure by Category

(Cash basis)

			1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Prel.	1996 Budget ^1/ Bill
			(In millions of krónur)
Revenue			80.098	92,453	99.953	103.447	103.220	109,602	114,420	119.889
	Direct taxes		13.017	17.690	19.263	20,348	20,311	22,724	23,375	24,805
	Indirect taxes		61,225	68.448	74.240	75,422	75,851	78,945	62,931	86.904
		Sales and value added taxes	34,151	37,086	38,954	39,944	40,497	40,899	43,150	45,450
		Payroll and social security tax	5,824	7,327	9,130	9,566	9,962	10,945	11,360	12.665
		Other indirect taxes	21,250	24,035	26,156	25,910	25.392	27,101	28,421	28,789
	Other revenue		5,856	6.315	6,450	7,677	7,058	7.933	8,114	8,180
		Interest	4.589	4.096	3.947	4,203	4.420	4,720	4,900	5,450
		Other	1.267	2.219	2.503	3,474	2,638	3,213	3,214	2.730
Expenditure			86.056	96.899	112.487	110,607	112.663	116,986	123,317	123,769
	Salaries and net purchases		32.118	37.327	42,418	42.382	44,354	45,375	47,050	49,772
	Current transfers		34,006	39.610	45,109	46,243	43,092	45.120	48,000	47,890
	Interest payments		8,548	8.274	9.875	8,346	9,732	16,704	12,630	13,058
	Maintenance		1,782	2.362	2,287	2,541	3,363	3,412	3,706	3,343
	Capital expenditures		9.602	9.326	12,798	11,095	12,323	12,375	11,931	9,714
Revenue balance			-5,958	-4.446	-12,534	-7.160	-9.643	-7,384	-8.897	-3,880
Net lending (-)			722	522	1,954	2,062	871	9,477	9,430	-650
Equity holdings			-70	123	233	43	410	158	150	500
Short-term credit, net			889	2.079	-73	-2.090	-226	-2,246	500	500
Net borrowing requirement			7.499	7.170	14,648	7.175	10.698	14.771	18.977	4,230
			(In percent of revenue)
Memorandum items:
	Direct taxes		16.3	19.1	19.3	19.7	19.7	20.7	20.4	20.7
	Indirect taxes		76.4	74.0	74.3	72.9	73.5	72.0	72.5	72.5
			(In Percent of expenditure)
	Salaries and net purchases		37.3	38.5	37.7	38.3	39.3	38.8	38.2	40.2
	Current transfers		39.5	40.9	40.1	41.8	38.2	38.6	38.9	38.7
	Interest payments		9.9	8.5	8.6	7.5	8.6	14.3	10.2	10.6
	Investment and capital transfers		11.2	9.6	11.4	10.0	10.9	10.6	9.7	7.8

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996. October 1995.

Table A20.

Iceland: Treasury Revenue and Expenditure by Category

(Cash basis)

			1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Prel.	1996 Budget ^1/ Bill
			(In millions of krónur)
Revenue			80.098	92,453	99.953	103.447	103.220	109,602	114,420	119.889
	Direct taxes		13.017	17.690	19.263	20,348	20,311	22,724	23,375	24,805
	Indirect taxes		61,225	68.448	74.240	75,422	75,851	78,945	62,931	86.904
		Sales and value added taxes	34,151	37,086	38,954	39,944	40,497	40,899	43,150	45,450
		Payroll and social security tax	5,824	7,327	9,130	9,566	9,962	10,945	11,360	12.665
		Other indirect taxes	21,250	24,035	26,156	25,910	25.392	27,101	28,421	28,789
	Other revenue		5,856	6.315	6,450	7,677	7,058	7.933	8,114	8,180
		Interest	4.589	4.096	3.947	4,203	4.420	4,720	4,900	5,450
		Other	1.267	2.219	2.503	3,474	2,638	3,213	3,214	2.730
Expenditure			86.056	96.899	112.487	110,607	112.663	116,986	123,317	123,769
	Salaries and net purchases		32.118	37.327	42,418	42.382	44,354	45,375	47,050	49,772
	Current transfers		34,006	39.610	45,109	46,243	43,092	45.120	48,000	47,890
	Interest payments		8,548	8.274	9.875	8,346	9,732	16,704	12,630	13,058
	Maintenance		1,782	2.362	2,287	2,541	3,363	3,412	3,706	3,343
	Capital expenditures		9.602	9.326	12,798	11,095	12,323	12,375	11,931	9,714
Revenue balance			-5,958	-4.446	-12,534	-7.160	-9.643	-7,384	-8.897	-3,880
Net lending (-)			722	522	1,954	2,062	871	9,477	9,430	-650
Equity holdings			-70	123	233	43	410	158	150	500
Short-term credit, net			889	2.079	-73	-2.090	-226	-2,246	500	500
Net borrowing requirement			7.499	7.170	14,648	7.175	10.698	14.771	18.977	4,230
			(In percent of revenue)
Memorandum items:
	Direct taxes		16.3	19.1	19.3	19.7	19.7	20.7	20.4	20.7
	Indirect taxes		76.4	74.0	74.3	72.9	73.5	72.0	72.5	72.5
			(In Percent of expenditure)
	Salaries and net purchases		37.3	38.5	37.7	38.3	39.3	38.8	38.2	40.2
	Current transfers		39.5	40.9	40.1	41.8	38.2	38.6	38.9	38.7
	Interest payments		9.9	8.5	8.6	7.5	8.6	14.3	10.2	10.6
	Investment and capital transfers		11.2	9.6	11.4	10.0	10.9	10.6	9.7	7.8

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996. October 1995.

Table A21.

Iceland: Central Government and Social Security Finances

(Accruals basis)

Source: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}In 1986 the Treasury wrote off a claim on the public electricity company amounting to ISK 5.1 billion. In the Icelandic version of the accruals accounts, the write off was counted as an expenditure in 1986.

Table A21.

Iceland: Central Government and Social Security Finances

(Accruals basis)

			1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In millions of krónur)
Current revenue			44,603	57,907	78,168	93,986	106,139	119,375	121,133	119,046	124,973
	Direct taxes		9,080	10,184	18,395	22.387	29,252	38,178	39.295	39,617	42,675
	Indirect taxes		31.193	42.468	53,460	62,665	69.572	72.623	72.193	70,251	71,918
	Interest income		2,916	3,456	4,032	5,527	4,730	6.257	6.019	5,961	6,467
	Other current revenue		485	555	638	1,318	2,359	2.317	3,025	2,719	3.314
	Transfers from public enterprises		929	1,244	1,643	2,089	226	--	601	500	599
Current expenditure			39,530	51,855	72,193	88.912	103,879	113,543	116,143	119,301	123.303
	Public consumption		22,534	30,836	39,603	46,843	54,864	60,537	60,696	63,445	65,924
		Wages	13.809	20,204	26,493	30,486	34.763	38,981	39,616	41,381	43.292
		Consumption of fixed capital	711	863	1,018	1,245	1,508	1,736	1,813	1,917	1,981
		Other consumption	8,014	9,771	12,092	15,112	18.593	19.820	19,267	20.147	20.651
	Interest expenditure		3,931	4,340	7,174	9,685	11,370	12,961	12,875	13,678	14,794
	Subsidies		5,064	5,727	8,780	12.3661	12.281	11,351	12,227	9,526	8.552
	Current transfers		8,001	10.950	16,636	20.018	25.364	28,694	30,345	32.652	34.033
		Other public sector	52	73	155	124	1,380	1,582	1,743	2,016	2.630
		Households	7,049	9,657	14,633	17,158	21.385	23,861	25,521	27.315	27.864
		Other private sector	900	1,220	1,648	2.736	2.599	3,251	3,081	3,321	3,539
Current balance			5,073	6,052	5,975	5,074	2,260	5,832	4,990	-253	1.670
Capital revenue			880	1.234	1.492	1,714	1.976	2,346	2,330	2,448	2.589
	Capital transfers		169	371	474	469	468	610	517	531	688
	Consumption of fixed capital		711	863	1.018	1,245	1.508	1,736	1,813	1.917	1.901
Capital expenditure			12,362	8.847	12.481	19,041	16.536	19,186	16,828	15,892	18.143
	Gross fixed investment		1,874	3.078	3.972	4,445	6,338	7,100	6.434	8,025	8.289
	Capital transfers		10,486	5,769	8,509	14,596	10,198	12,086	10,394	7,867	9,854
		Other public sector	615	1,033	1,638	1,940	1,676	1,855	1,802	1,716	1,633
		Private sector ^1/	9,873	4,736	6,871	12,656	8,522	10,231	8,592	6,151	8,221
Financial balance			-6,409	-1,561	-5,014	-12,253	-12,300	-11,008	-9,508	-13,697	-13,884
	Lending and change in equity holdings		-3,340	3,523	3,639	707	-1,053	5,827	-1,934	-780	…
		Total lending	7,279	3,789	3,158	5,595	5,567	6,413	5,981	8,106	…
		Total repayment	-7,096	-4,869	-2,510	-7,327	-6,741	-4,342	-2,390	-6,223	…
		Change in equity holdings	150	792	111	-631	275	254	-837	3,321	…
		Other claims (net)	-3,673	3,811	3,080	3,070	-154	3,502	-4,688	-5,984	…
Borrowing requirement			3,069	5,064	6,853	12,960	11,247	16,835	7,574	12,917	…
			(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue		28.2	28.3	31.0	31.0	29.7	30.7	31.0	29.6	29.4
	Expenditure		32.2	29.0	33.0	35.0	33.1	33.5	33.4	32.9	32.6
	Expenditure plus lending		30.1	30.7	34.5	35.3	32.8	34.9	32.9	32.7	…
		of which: current transfers	5.0	5.2	6.5	6.5	7.0	7.2	7.6	7.9	7.9
	Revenue balance		-4.0	-0.7	-2.0	-4.0	-3.4	-2.8	-2.4	-3.3	-3.2
	Borrowing requirement		1.9	2.4	3.4	4.2	3.1	4.2	1.9	3.1	…

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A21.

Iceland: Central Government and Social Security Finances

(Accruals basis)

			1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In millions of krónur)
Current revenue			44,603	57,907	78,168	93,986	106,139	119,375	121,133	119,046	124,973
	Direct taxes		9,080	10,184	18,395	22.387	29,252	38,178	39.295	39,617	42,675
	Indirect taxes		31.193	42.468	53,460	62,665	69.572	72.623	72.193	70,251	71,918
	Interest income		2,916	3,456	4,032	5,527	4,730	6.257	6.019	5,961	6,467
	Other current revenue		485	555	638	1,318	2,359	2.317	3,025	2,719	3.314
	Transfers from public enterprises		929	1,244	1,643	2,089	226	--	601	500	599
Current expenditure			39,530	51,855	72,193	88.912	103,879	113,543	116,143	119,301	123.303
	Public consumption		22,534	30,836	39,603	46,843	54,864	60,537	60,696	63,445	65,924
		Wages	13.809	20,204	26,493	30,486	34.763	38,981	39,616	41,381	43.292
		Consumption of fixed capital	711	863	1,018	1,245	1,508	1,736	1,813	1,917	1,981
		Other consumption	8,014	9,771	12,092	15,112	18.593	19.820	19,267	20.147	20.651
	Interest expenditure		3,931	4,340	7,174	9,685	11,370	12,961	12,875	13,678	14,794
	Subsidies		5,064	5,727	8,780	12.3661	12.281	11,351	12,227	9,526	8.552
	Current transfers		8,001	10.950	16,636	20.018	25.364	28,694	30,345	32.652	34.033
		Other public sector	52	73	155	124	1,380	1,582	1,743	2,016	2.630
		Households	7,049	9,657	14,633	17,158	21.385	23,861	25,521	27.315	27.864
		Other private sector	900	1,220	1,648	2.736	2.599	3,251	3,081	3,321	3,539
Current balance			5,073	6,052	5,975	5,074	2,260	5,832	4,990	-253	1.670
Capital revenue			880	1.234	1.492	1,714	1.976	2,346	2,330	2,448	2.589
	Capital transfers		169	371	474	469	468	610	517	531	688
	Consumption of fixed capital		711	863	1.018	1,245	1.508	1,736	1,813	1.917	1.901
Capital expenditure			12,362	8.847	12.481	19,041	16.536	19,186	16,828	15,892	18.143
	Gross fixed investment		1,874	3.078	3.972	4,445	6,338	7,100	6.434	8,025	8.289
	Capital transfers		10,486	5,769	8,509	14,596	10,198	12,086	10,394	7,867	9,854
		Other public sector	615	1,033	1,638	1,940	1,676	1,855	1,802	1,716	1,633
		Private sector ^1/	9,873	4,736	6,871	12,656	8,522	10,231	8,592	6,151	8,221
Financial balance			-6,409	-1,561	-5,014	-12,253	-12,300	-11,008	-9,508	-13,697	-13,884
	Lending and change in equity holdings		-3,340	3,523	3,639	707	-1,053	5,827	-1,934	-780	…
		Total lending	7,279	3,789	3,158	5,595	5,567	6,413	5,981	8,106	…
		Total repayment	-7,096	-4,869	-2,510	-7,327	-6,741	-4,342	-2,390	-6,223	…
		Change in equity holdings	150	792	111	-631	275	254	-837	3,321	…
		Other claims (net)	-3,673	3,811	3,080	3,070	-154	3,502	-4,688	-5,984	…
Borrowing requirement			3,069	5,064	6,853	12,960	11,247	16,835	7,574	12,917	…
			(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue		28.2	28.3	31.0	31.0	29.7	30.7	31.0	29.6	29.4
	Expenditure		32.2	29.0	33.0	35.0	33.1	33.5	33.4	32.9	32.6
	Expenditure plus lending		30.1	30.7	34.5	35.3	32.8	34.9	32.9	32.7	…
		of which: current transfers	5.0	5.2	6.5	6.5	7.0	7.2	7.6	7.9	7.9
	Revenue balance		-4.0	-0.7	-2.0	-4.0	-3.4	-2.8	-2.4	-3.3	-3.2
	Borrowing requirement		1.9	2.4	3.4	4.2	3.1	4.2	1.9	3.1	…

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A22.

Iceland: Local Government Finances

(Accruals basis)

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A22.

Iceland: Local Government Finances

(Accruals basis)

			1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In millions of krónur)
Current revenue			10,736	14,226	19,734	23,703	26,623	30,144	31,482	30,996	32,114
	Direct taxes		5,212	6,993	10,009	12,088	13,699	14,952	15,767	19,820	20,025
	Indirect taxes		4,630	5,652	7,864	9,487	9,590	11,342	11,570	6,905	7,279
	Interest income		539	905	1,051	1,200	998	1,067	808	633	545
	Other current revenue		303	403	655	804	956	1,201	1,594	1,422	1,635
	Transfers from public enterprises		52	73	155	124	1,380	1,582	1,743	2,016	2,630
Current expenditure			8,397	11,173	15,027	18,764	19,175	22,004	24,605	26,682	29,634
	Public consumption		6,242	8,141	10,934	13,498	15,125	17,620	19,679	21,374	23,549
		Wages	3,245	4,584	6,134	7,337	8,526	9,949	10,783	11,696	12,538
		Consumption of fixed capital	237	288	339	435	521	583	641	683	724
		Other consumption	2,760	3,269	4,461	5,726	6,078	7,088	8,255	8,995	10,287
	Interest expenditure		503	792	1,115	1,522	1,533	1,755	1,633	1,703	2,012
	Subsidies		209	261	327	469	672	969	998	978	1,034
	Current transfers		1,443	1,978	2,652	3,275	1,845	1,661	2,295	2,629	3,039
		Other public sector	929	1,244	1,643	2,089	226	--	601	500	599
		Households	292	435	587	651	788	802	945	1,394	1.586
		Other private sector	222	299	422	535	831	859	749	735	834
Current balance			2,339	3,053	4,707	4,939	7,448	8,140	6,877	4,314	2,480
Capital revenue			875	1,357	2,021	2,416	2,246	2,539	2,546	2,547	2,418
	Capital transfers		638	1,069	1,682	1,981	1,725	1,956	1,905	1,864	1,694
	Consumption of fixed capital		237	288	339	435	521	583	641	683	724
Capital expenditure			3,331	4,635	6,926	9,133	9,498	11,294	11,135	11,602	11,674
	Gross fixed investment		2,926	4,217	6,376	8,186	8,040	9,128	9,582	9,721	9,341
	Capital transfers		405	418	550	947	1,458	2,166	1,553	1,881	2,333
		Other public sector	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
		Private sector	405	418	550	947	1,458	2,166	1,553	1,881	2,333
Financial balance			-117	-225	-196	-1,778	196	-615	-1,712	-4,741	-6,776
	Lending and change in equity holdings		899	1,216	823	156	1,492	156	509	-1,113	…
		Total lending	861	553	1,397	555	1,234	1,369	1,338	1,099	…
		Total repayment	-450	-400	-408	-328	-721	-1,062	-921	-784	…
		Change in equity holdings	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	…
		Other claims (net)	488	1,063	-166	-71	979	-151	92	-1,428	…
Borrowing requirement			1,216	1,441	1,021	1,934	1,296	771	2,221	3,628	…
			(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue		7.2	7.5	8.5	8.5	7.9	8.2	8.6	8.2	8.0
	Expenditure		7.3	7.6	8.6	9.1	7.9	8.4	9.0	9.3	9.5
	Expenditure plus lending		7.8	8.1	8.9	9.1	8.3	6.4	9.1	9.0	…
		of which: current transfers	0.9	0.9	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.7
	Revenue balance		-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.6	0.1	-0.2	-0.4	-1.2	-1.6
	Borrowing requirement		0.6	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.9	…

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A22.

Iceland: Local Government Finances

(Accruals basis)

			1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In millions of krónur)
Current revenue			10,736	14,226	19,734	23,703	26,623	30,144	31,482	30,996	32,114
	Direct taxes		5,212	6,993	10,009	12,088	13,699	14,952	15,767	19,820	20,025
	Indirect taxes		4,630	5,652	7,864	9,487	9,590	11,342	11,570	6,905	7,279
	Interest income		539	905	1,051	1,200	998	1,067	808	633	545
	Other current revenue		303	403	655	804	956	1,201	1,594	1,422	1,635
	Transfers from public enterprises		52	73	155	124	1,380	1,582	1,743	2,016	2,630
Current expenditure			8,397	11,173	15,027	18,764	19,175	22,004	24,605	26,682	29,634
	Public consumption		6,242	8,141	10,934	13,498	15,125	17,620	19,679	21,374	23,549
		Wages	3,245	4,584	6,134	7,337	8,526	9,949	10,783	11,696	12,538
		Consumption of fixed capital	237	288	339	435	521	583	641	683	724
		Other consumption	2,760	3,269	4,461	5,726	6,078	7,088	8,255	8,995	10,287
	Interest expenditure		503	792	1,115	1,522	1,533	1,755	1,633	1,703	2,012
	Subsidies		209	261	327	469	672	969	998	978	1,034
	Current transfers		1,443	1,978	2,652	3,275	1,845	1,661	2,295	2,629	3,039
		Other public sector	929	1,244	1,643	2,089	226	--	601	500	599
		Households	292	435	587	651	788	802	945	1,394	1.586
		Other private sector	222	299	422	535	831	859	749	735	834
Current balance			2,339	3,053	4,707	4,939	7,448	8,140	6,877	4,314	2,480
Capital revenue			875	1,357	2,021	2,416	2,246	2,539	2,546	2,547	2,418
	Capital transfers		638	1,069	1,682	1,981	1,725	1,956	1,905	1,864	1,694
	Consumption of fixed capital		237	288	339	435	521	583	641	683	724
Capital expenditure			3,331	4,635	6,926	9,133	9,498	11,294	11,135	11,602	11,674
	Gross fixed investment		2,926	4,217	6,376	8,186	8,040	9,128	9,582	9,721	9,341
	Capital transfers		405	418	550	947	1,458	2,166	1,553	1,881	2,333
		Other public sector	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
		Private sector	405	418	550	947	1,458	2,166	1,553	1,881	2,333
Financial balance			-117	-225	-196	-1,778	196	-615	-1,712	-4,741	-6,776
	Lending and change in equity holdings		899	1,216	823	156	1,492	156	509	-1,113	…
		Total lending	861	553	1,397	555	1,234	1,369	1,338	1,099	…
		Total repayment	-450	-400	-408	-328	-721	-1,062	-921	-784	…
		Change in equity holdings	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	…
		Other claims (net)	488	1,063	-166	-71	979	-151	92	-1,428	…
Borrowing requirement			1,216	1,441	1,021	1,934	1,296	771	2,221	3,628	…
			(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue		7.2	7.5	8.5	8.5	7.9	8.2	8.6	8.2	8.0
	Expenditure		7.3	7.6	8.6	9.1	7.9	8.4	9.0	9.3	9.5
	Expenditure plus lending		7.8	8.1	8.9	9.1	8.3	6.4	9.1	9.0	…
		of which: current transfers	0.9	0.9	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.7
	Revenue balance		-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.6	0.1	-0.2	-0.4	-1.2	-1.6
	Borrowing requirement		0.6	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.9	…

Source: National Economic Institute.

Table A23.

Iceland: General Government Finances

(Accruals basis)

Sources: National Economic Institute.

^{^1/}In 1986 the Treasury wrote off a claim on the public electricity company amounting to ISK 5.1 billion. In the Icelandic version of the accruals accounts, the write-off was counted as an expenditure in 1986.

Table A23.

Iceland: General Government Finances

(Accruals basis)

			1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In millions of krónur)
Current revenue			54,358	70,816	96,104	115,474	131,155	147,937	150,271	147,528	153,859
	Direct taxes		14,292	17,177	28,404	34,475	42,951	53,130	55,062	59,437	62,700
	Indirect taxes		35,823	48,320	61,324	72,152	79,162	83,965	83,763	77,156	79,197
	Interest income		3,455	4,361	5,083	6,727	5,728	7,324	6,827	6,794	7,012
	Other current revenue		788	958	1,293	2,120	3,314	3,518	4,619	4,141	4,950
Current expenditure			46,946	61,710	85,423	105,463	121,448	133,966	138,404	143,466	149,708
	Public consumption		28,776	38,980	50,537	60,341	69,989	78,157	80,375	84,818	89,473
		Wages	17,054	24,788	32,627	37,823	43,289	48,930	50,399	53,076	55,830
		Consumption of fixed capital	948	1,151	1,357	1,680	2,029	2,319	2,454	2,600	2,705
		Other consumption	10,774	13,041	16,553	20,838	24,671	26,908	27,522	29,142	30,938
	Interest expenditure		4,434	5,132	8,289	11,207	12,903	14,716	14,508	15,381	16,806
	Subsidies		5,273	5,988	9,107	12,835	12,953	12,320	13,225	10,503	9,586
	Current transfers		8,463	11,610	17,490	21,080	25,603	28,773	30,296	32,764	33,843
Current balance			7,412	9,106	10,681	10,011	9,707	13,971	11,867	4,062	4,151
Capital revenue			1,140	1,558	1,875	2,190	2,546	3,030	3,074	3,279	3,453
	Capital transfers		192	407	518	510	517	711	620	679	748
	Consumption of fixed capital		948	1,151	1,357	1,680	2,029	2,319	2,454	2,600	2,705
	Capital expenditure		15,078	12,449	17,769	26,234	24,358	28,625	26,161	25,778	28,184
	Gross fixed investment		4,800	7,295	10,348	12,631	14,378	16,228	16,016	17,746	17,630
	Capital transfers ^1/		10,278	5,154	7,421	13,603	9,980	12,397	10,145	8,032	10,554
	Revenue balance		-6,526	-1,785	-5,213	-14,033	-12,105	-11,624	-11,220	-18,437	-20,580
	Lending and change in equity holdings		-2,441	4,739	4,662	863	439	5,983	-1,425	-1,893	…
	Total lending		8,140	4,342	4,555	6,150	6,801	7,782	7,319	9,205	…
	Total repay		-7,546	-5,269	-2,918	-7,655	-7,462	-5,404	-3,311	-7,007	…
	Change in equity holdings		150	792	111	-631	275	254	-837	3,321	…
	Other claims (net)		-3,185	4,874	2,914	2,999	825	3,351	-4,596	-7,412	…
	Borrowing requirement		4,085	6,524	9,875	14,896	12,544	17,607	9,795	16,544	…
			(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue		34.5	34.6	38.2	38.2	36.7	38.1	38.5	36.7	36.3
	Expenditure		38.5	35.5	40.2	42.7	40.1	41.0	41.4	41.2	41.1
	Expenditure plus lending		37.0	37.7	42.0	43.0	40.2	42.5	41.0	40.7	…
		of which current transfers	5.3	5.6	6.8	6.8	7.0	7.3	7.6	8.0	7.8
	Revenue balance		-4.1	-0.9	-2.0	-4.6	-3.3	-2.9	-2.8	-4.5	-4.8
	Borrowing requirement		2.5	3.1	3.8	4.8	3.4	4.4	2.5	4.0	…

Sources: National Economic Institute.

Table A23.

Iceland: General Government Finances

(Accruals basis)

			1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
			(In millions of krónur)
Current revenue			54,358	70,816	96,104	115,474	131,155	147,937	150,271	147,528	153,859
	Direct taxes		14,292	17,177	28,404	34,475	42,951	53,130	55,062	59,437	62,700
	Indirect taxes		35,823	48,320	61,324	72,152	79,162	83,965	83,763	77,156	79,197
	Interest income		3,455	4,361	5,083	6,727	5,728	7,324	6,827	6,794	7,012
	Other current revenue		788	958	1,293	2,120	3,314	3,518	4,619	4,141	4,950
Current expenditure			46,946	61,710	85,423	105,463	121,448	133,966	138,404	143,466	149,708
	Public consumption		28,776	38,980	50,537	60,341	69,989	78,157	80,375	84,818	89,473
		Wages	17,054	24,788	32,627	37,823	43,289	48,930	50,399	53,076	55,830
		Consumption of fixed capital	948	1,151	1,357	1,680	2,029	2,319	2,454	2,600	2,705
		Other consumption	10,774	13,041	16,553	20,838	24,671	26,908	27,522	29,142	30,938
	Interest expenditure		4,434	5,132	8,289	11,207	12,903	14,716	14,508	15,381	16,806
	Subsidies		5,273	5,988	9,107	12,835	12,953	12,320	13,225	10,503	9,586
	Current transfers		8,463	11,610	17,490	21,080	25,603	28,773	30,296	32,764	33,843
Current balance			7,412	9,106	10,681	10,011	9,707	13,971	11,867	4,062	4,151
Capital revenue			1,140	1,558	1,875	2,190	2,546	3,030	3,074	3,279	3,453
	Capital transfers		192	407	518	510	517	711	620	679	748
	Consumption of fixed capital		948	1,151	1,357	1,680	2,029	2,319	2,454	2,600	2,705
	Capital expenditure		15,078	12,449	17,769	26,234	24,358	28,625	26,161	25,778	28,184
	Gross fixed investment		4,800	7,295	10,348	12,631	14,378	16,228	16,016	17,746	17,630
	Capital transfers ^1/		10,278	5,154	7,421	13,603	9,980	12,397	10,145	8,032	10,554
	Revenue balance		-6,526	-1,785	-5,213	-14,033	-12,105	-11,624	-11,220	-18,437	-20,580
	Lending and change in equity holdings		-2,441	4,739	4,662	863	439	5,983	-1,425	-1,893	…
	Total lending		8,140	4,342	4,555	6,150	6,801	7,782	7,319	9,205	…
	Total repay		-7,546	-5,269	-2,918	-7,655	-7,462	-5,404	-3,311	-7,007	…
	Change in equity holdings		150	792	111	-631	275	254	-837	3,321	…
	Other claims (net)		-3,185	4,874	2,914	2,999	825	3,351	-4,596	-7,412	…
	Borrowing requirement		4,085	6,524	9,875	14,896	12,544	17,607	9,795	16,544	…
			(In percent of GDP)
Memorandum items:
	Revenue		34.5	34.6	38.2	38.2	36.7	38.1	38.5	36.7	36.3
	Expenditure		38.5	35.5	40.2	42.7	40.1	41.0	41.4	41.2	41.1
	Expenditure plus lending		37.0	37.7	42.0	43.0	40.2	42.5	41.0	40.7	…
		of which current transfers	5.3	5.6	6.8	6.8	7.0	7.3	7.6	8.0	7.8
	Revenue balance		-4.1	-0.9	-2.0	-4.6	-3.3	-2.9	-2.8	-4.5	-4.8
	Borrowing requirement		2.5	3.1	3.8	4.8	3.4	4.4	2.5	4.0	…

Sources: National Economic Institute.

Table A24.

Iceland: Treasury Debt and Lending

(In millions of krónur. end of period)

Source: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996. October 1995.

^{^2/}Ratio of end of year outstanding debt or lending to current year GDP.

Table A24.

Iceland: Treasury Debt and Lending

(In millions of krónur. end of period)

			1984	1985	1986	1987	1986	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Est.	1996 Budget Bill ^1/
Total debt			26,289	37,478	44,287	52,026	68,273	97,182	112,785	127,656	153,412	181,030	197,106	217,113	222,715
	Central bank		1,897	3,683	1,693	3,059	3,448	3,221	1,810	757	13	6	6	…	…
	Savings bonds		3,244	5,165	8,541	11,775	16,659	21,717	31,043	36,301	39,089	46,257	52,184	…	…
	Treasury notes		…	…	…	931	725	5,892	8,142	8,244	12,545	13,742	14,630	…	…
	Treasury bills		…	…	…	--	…	…	…	1,257	2,487	6,012	5,563	…	…
	Other domestic liabilities		2,275	3,092	4,749	6,306	7,236	7,840	12,011	13,144	12,005	12,709	11,090	…	…
	Foreign debt		19,497	25,438	29,304	29,955	40,205	38,512	59,779	67,953	87,273	102,304	113,633	…	…
Total lending			21,414	29,839	29,713	35,632	47,569	49,222	52,806	63,091	67,700	64,968	69,066	80,104	81,494
	Long term credit		18,182	24,737	22,985	24,182	29,967	34,433	34,022	37,902	41,654	46,873	55,469	…	…
		Indexed to domestic prices	4,168	10,317	11,596	13,476	15,795	16,331	18,306	22,071	22,644	26,405	36,965	…	…
		In foreign currency	14,014	14,220	11,389	10,706	14,172	18,102	15,716	15,831	19,010	20,470	18,504	…	…
	Short term credit, net		3,232	5,102	6,728	11,450	17,602	14,789	16,784	25,189	26,046	18,093	13,597	…	…
Total debt minus total lending			4,875	7,639	14,574	16,394	20,704	47,960	59,979	64,565	85,712	116,062	128,040	137,009	141,221
	Lending as percent of debt		81.3	79.6	67.1	68.5	69.7	50.6	46.8	49.4	44.1	35.9	35.0	36.9	36.6
			(In percent of GDP) ^2/
Total debt			29.5	31.0	27.5	24.9	26.6	31.5	31.0	32.2	38.6	44.1	45.5	47.7	46.5
	Of which: foreign debt		21.9	21.1	18.2	14.3	15.7	19.0	16.4	17.1	21.9	24.9	26.2	…	…
Total lending			24.0	24.7	18.4	17.0	18.5	16.0	14.5	15.9	17.0	15.8	15.9	17.6	17.0
	Of which: in foreign currency		15.7	11.8	7.1	5.1	5.5	5.9	4.3	4.0	4.8	5.0	4.3	…	…
Total debt minus total lending			5.5	6.3	9.0	7.8	8.1	15.6	16.5	16.3	21.5	28.2	29.6	30.1	29.5

Source: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996. October 1995.

^{^2/}Ratio of end of year outstanding debt or lending to current year GDP.

Table A24.

Iceland: Treasury Debt and Lending

(In millions of krónur. end of period)

			1984	1985	1986	1987	1986	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 Est.	1996 Budget Bill ^1/
Total debt			26,289	37,478	44,287	52,026	68,273	97,182	112,785	127,656	153,412	181,030	197,106	217,113	222,715
	Central bank		1,897	3,683	1,693	3,059	3,448	3,221	1,810	757	13	6	6	…	…
	Savings bonds		3,244	5,165	8,541	11,775	16,659	21,717	31,043	36,301	39,089	46,257	52,184	…	…
	Treasury notes		…	…	…	931	725	5,892	8,142	8,244	12,545	13,742	14,630	…	…
	Treasury bills		…	…	…	--	…	…	…	1,257	2,487	6,012	5,563	…	…
	Other domestic liabilities		2,275	3,092	4,749	6,306	7,236	7,840	12,011	13,144	12,005	12,709	11,090	…	…
	Foreign debt		19,497	25,438	29,304	29,955	40,205	38,512	59,779	67,953	87,273	102,304	113,633	…	…
Total lending			21,414	29,839	29,713	35,632	47,569	49,222	52,806	63,091	67,700	64,968	69,066	80,104	81,494
	Long term credit		18,182	24,737	22,985	24,182	29,967	34,433	34,022	37,902	41,654	46,873	55,469	…	…
		Indexed to domestic prices	4,168	10,317	11,596	13,476	15,795	16,331	18,306	22,071	22,644	26,405	36,965	…	…
		In foreign currency	14,014	14,220	11,389	10,706	14,172	18,102	15,716	15,831	19,010	20,470	18,504	…	…
	Short term credit, net		3,232	5,102	6,728	11,450	17,602	14,789	16,784	25,189	26,046	18,093	13,597	…	…
Total debt minus total lending			4,875	7,639	14,574	16,394	20,704	47,960	59,979	64,565	85,712	116,062	128,040	137,009	141,221
	Lending as percent of debt		81.3	79.6	67.1	68.5	69.7	50.6	46.8	49.4	44.1	35.9	35.0	36.9	36.6
			(In percent of GDP) ^2/
Total debt			29.5	31.0	27.5	24.9	26.6	31.5	31.0	32.2	38.6	44.1	45.5	47.7	46.5
	Of which: foreign debt		21.9	21.1	18.2	14.3	15.7	19.0	16.4	17.1	21.9	24.9	26.2	…	…
Total lending			24.0	24.7	18.4	17.0	18.5	16.0	14.5	15.9	17.0	15.8	15.9	17.6	17.0
	Of which: in foreign currency		15.7	11.8	7.1	5.1	5.5	5.9	4.3	4.0	4.8	5.0	4.3	…	…
Total debt minus total lending			5.5	6.3	9.0	7.8	8.1	15.6	16.5	16.3	21.5	28.2	29.6	30.1	29.5

Source: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Finances.

^{^1/}Budget Proposal for 1996. October 1995.

^{^2/}Ratio of end of year outstanding debt or lending to current year GDP.

Table A25.

Iceland: Medium-Term Growth Prospects

Sources: Icelandic authorities, and staff estimates.

^{^1/}Treasury saving and investment based on official baseline scenario. Staff baseline yields slightly higher total gross investment in 1998-99.

^{^2/}Staff estimates.

^{^3/}Based on the authorities’ targets for the treasury balance.

Table A25.

Iceland: Medium-Term Growth Prospects

				Baseline ^1/				Consolidation
		1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	1996	1997	1998	1999
		(In percent GDP)
Savings and investment ^2/
National savings		17.0	16.1	16.1	15.8	15.6	15.3	16.9	17.9	18.3	18.5
	Treasury	1.2	0.7	0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−1.0	1.2	2.0	2.2	2.2
	Rest of the economy	15.8	15.5	15.7	15.9	16.1	16.3	15.7	15.9	16.1	16.3
Gross investment		15.0	15.1	15.4	15.3	15.1	14.8	16.2	17.4	17.8	16.0
	Treasury	2.9	2.6	2.6	2.4	2.3	2.2	2.0	2.0	1.9	1.8
	Rest of the economy	12.1	12.5	12.8	12.9	12.8	12.6	14.2	15.4	15.9	16.2
Current account		2.0	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5
		(Percentage changes unless otherwise Indicated)
GDP and fiscal assumptions
Official scenario
	Real GDP	2.8	3.2	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.0	1.7	2.8	3.0
	Potential GDP ^2/	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.3	2.4
	Output gap (percent pot. GDP)^2/	−2.6	−1.3	−1.2	−1.1	−1.0	−0.8	−1.4	−1.9	−1.4	−0.8
	Treasury balance (percent GDP)	−1.7	−2.0	−2.2	−2.5	−2.8	−3.2	−0.8	0.0	0.3	0.4
Staff scenario ^3/
	Real GDP	2.8	3.2	2.5	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.5	2.5	2.8	3.0
	Potential GDP ^2/	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.3	2.3	2.4
	Output gap (percent pot. GDP) ^2/	−2.6	−1.3	−0.8	−0.7	−0.7	−0.6	−0.9	−0.7	−0.2	0.3
	Treasury balance (percent GDP)	−1.7	−2.0	−2.2	−2.5	−2.6	−2.8	−0.8	0.0	0.3	0.4

Sources: Icelandic authorities, and staff estimates.

^{^1/}Treasury saving and investment based on official baseline scenario. Staff baseline yields slightly higher total gross investment in 1998-99.

^{^2/}Staff estimates.

^{^3/}Based on the authorities’ targets for the treasury balance.

Table A25.

Iceland: Medium-Term Growth Prospects

				Baseline ^1/				Consolidation
		1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	1996	1997	1998	1999
		(In percent GDP)
Savings and investment ^2/
National savings		17.0	16.1	16.1	15.8	15.6	15.3	16.9	17.9	18.3	18.5
	Treasury	1.2	0.7	0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−1.0	1.2	2.0	2.2	2.2
	Rest of the economy	15.8	15.5	15.7	15.9	16.1	16.3	15.7	15.9	16.1	16.3
Gross investment		15.0	15.1	15.4	15.3	15.1	14.8	16.2	17.4	17.8	16.0
	Treasury	2.9	2.6	2.6	2.4	2.3	2.2	2.0	2.0	1.9	1.8
	Rest of the economy	12.1	12.5	12.8	12.9	12.8	12.6	14.2	15.4	15.9	16.2
Current account		2.0	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5
		(Percentage changes unless otherwise Indicated)
GDP and fiscal assumptions
Official scenario
	Real GDP	2.8	3.2	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.0	1.7	2.8	3.0
	Potential GDP ^2/	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.3	2.4
	Output gap (percent pot. GDP)^2/	−2.6	−1.3	−1.2	−1.1	−1.0	−0.8	−1.4	−1.9	−1.4	−0.8
	Treasury balance (percent GDP)	−1.7	−2.0	−2.2	−2.5	−2.8	−3.2	−0.8	0.0	0.3	0.4
Staff scenario ^3/
	Real GDP	2.8	3.2	2.5	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.5	2.5	2.8	3.0
	Potential GDP ^2/	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.3	2.3	2.4
	Output gap (percent pot. GDP) ^2/	−2.6	−1.3	−0.8	−0.7	−0.7	−0.6	−0.9	−0.7	−0.2	0.3
	Treasury balance (percent GDP)	−1.7	−2.0	−2.2	−2.5	−2.6	−2.8	−0.8	0.0	0.3	0.4

Sources: Icelandic authorities, and staff estimates.

^{^1/}Treasury saving and investment based on official baseline scenario. Staff baseline yields slightly higher total gross investment in 1998-99.

^{^2/}Staff estimates.

^{^3/}Based on the authorities’ targets for the treasury balance.

The detrending parameter λ is set at the usual value of 100. Although the procedure makes the estimate of the output gap dependent on the assessment of the medium-term outlook, projections are included because the filter is known to display strong end-sample bias. The baseline projections are chosen because, with low investment, they more closely approximate the conditions of recent years and are thus likely to yield more appropriate potential growth rates for the recent period.

In this calculation the labor share in GDP is put at 0.62, and the NAIRU is taken to be 4 1/4 percent for 1994. The deviation of labor force from trend is estimated by smoothing the labor force using a Hodrick-Prescott filter. Given the timing and length of the Icelandic recession, it is particularly difficult to distinguish the cyclical and trend components of the recent decline in working hours for manual workers (which is assumed also to have taken place elsewhere in the economy). Trend working hours for manual workers in 1994 are assumed to be 47 hours a week, down from about 48 hours a week observed in the 1980s, reflecting a secular trend similar to that in other countries, but above the level of 46-46.5 hours observed since 1988.

Despite the fall in catch quotas, diversification to other (and high value added) species and possibilities of fishing outside of Icelandic waters have moderated the fall in total fish catch value added. In addition, actual catch has typically exceeded total allowable catch.

A small current account surplus is considered appropriate for Iceland in light of its rather high external debt and a population that is projected to age relatively rapidly over the next fifty years. A slow rise in private savings is assumed to result from household debt consolidation, although the private saving rate is already high compared with its pre-downturn levels in the 1980s.

The calculations again assume a Cobb-Douglas production function with a labor share of 0.62. Total factor productivity growth is estimated to have slowed sharply from the late 1970s to the late 1980s. In this projection it is set at the rate reached toward the end of this period (0.9 percent a year).

This further expansion would raise real GDP growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage points over a two-year construction phase.

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Iceland: Statistical Appendix

Author:

International Monetary Fund

Volume/Issue:: Volume 1996: Issue 017

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

ISBN:: 9781451819199

ISSN:: 1934-7685

Pages:: 52

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451819199.002

Keywords
ANNEX I. Iceland: The Outlook for Growth
- 1. Baseline scenario and fiscal consolidation
- 2. Power-intensive projects
Statistical Appendix

View raw image

CHART 1

ICELAND OUTPUT GROWTH

(Annual percentage change)

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CHART 2

ICELAND INFLATION

(Twelve-month percent change)

View raw image

CHART 3

ICELAND EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

View raw image

CHART 4

ICELAND EXTERNAL SECTOR

(In percent of GDP)

View raw image

CHART 5

ICELAND COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS

(In percent of total exports)

View raw image

CHART 6

ICELAND TREASURY FINANCES

(In percent of GDP)

View raw image

CHART 7

ICELAND RECENT BUDGETARY DEVELOPMENTS

(In percent of GDP)

View raw image

CHART 8

ICELAND OVERALL FISCAL POSITION

(In percent of GDP)

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CHART 9

ICELAND INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN RESERVES

(In percent of GDP)

View raw image

CHART 10

ICELAND INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN RESERVES

(In percent of GDP)

View raw image

CHART 11

ICELAND EXTERNAL CAPITAL FLOWS

(In billions of krónur)

View raw image

CHART 12

ICELAND EXTERNAL DEBT

View raw image

CHART 13

ICELAND OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE, AND WORKING HOURS

Table A25.

Iceland: Medium-Term Growth Prospects

				Baseline ^1/				Consolidation
		1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	1996	1997	1998	1999
		(In percent GDP)
Savings and investment ^2/
National savings		17.0	16.1	16.1	15.8	15.6	15.3	16.9	17.9	18.3	18.5
	Treasury	1.2	0.7	0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−1.0	1.2	2.0	2.2	2.2
	Rest of the economy	15.8	15.5	15.7	15.9	16.1	16.3	15.7	15.9	16.1	16.3
Gross investment		15.0	15.1	15.4	15.3	15.1	14.8	16.2	17.4	17.8	16.0
	Treasury	2.9	2.6	2.6	2.4	2.3	2.2	2.0	2.0	1.9	1.8
	Rest of the economy	12.1	12.5	12.8	12.9	12.8	12.6	14.2	15.4	15.9	16.2
Current account		2.0	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5
		(Percentage changes unless otherwise Indicated)
GDP and fiscal assumptions
Official scenario
	Real GDP	2.8	3.2	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.0	1.7	2.8	3.0
	Potential GDP ^2/	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.3	2.4
	Output gap (percent pot. GDP)^2/	−2.6	−1.3	−1.2	−1.1	−1.0	−0.8	−1.4	−1.9	−1.4	−0.8
	Treasury balance (percent GDP)	−1.7	−2.0	−2.2	−2.5	−2.8	−3.2	−0.8	0.0	0.3	0.4
Staff scenario ^3/
	Real GDP	2.8	3.2	2.5	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.5	2.5	2.8	3.0
	Potential GDP ^2/	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.3	2.3	2.4
	Output gap (percent pot. GDP) ^2/	−2.6	−1.3	−0.8	−0.7	−0.7	−0.6	−0.9	−0.7	−0.2	0.3
	Treasury balance (percent GDP)	−1.7	−2.0	−2.2	−2.5	−2.6	−2.8	−0.8	0.0	0.3	0.4

Sources: Icelandic authorities, and staff estimates.

^{^1/}Treasury saving and investment based on official baseline scenario. Staff baseline yields slightly higher total gross investment in 1998-99.

^{^2/}Staff estimates.

^{^3/}Based on the authorities’ targets for the treasury balance.

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ANNEX I. Iceland: The Outlook for Growth

1. Baseline scenario and fiscal consolidation

a. The output gap

b. Medium-term scenarios

2. Power-intensive projects

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