Front Matter Page

© 1995 International Monetary Fund

May 1995

IMF Staff Country Report No. 95/44

Uganda—Background Paper

This background paper on Uganda was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. In releasing this document for public use, confidential material may have been removed at the request of the member.

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Front Matter Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

UGANDA

Background Paper on the Response of Output and Investment to Adjustment Programs, and Statistical Appendix

Prepared by a staff mission consisting of Mr. R. Sharer (head), Mr. H. De Zoysa, Mr. C. McDonald, Mr. L. Errico (EP) (all AFR), Mr. T. Muzondo (FAD), Mr. S. Schwartz (PDR), and Mr. M. Ellyne (Resident Representative)

Approved by the African Department

April 10, 1995

Contents

• I. Introduction

• II. Growth Record and Cross-Country Comparisons

• III. Initial Conditions of Crisis, Macroeconomic Policy Mix, and Key Outcomes

  • 1. The nature and causes of the output deviations

  • 2. The role of external shocks

  • 3. The relationship between the output gap and investment

  • 4. The adjustment policy mix and key outcomes

    • a. The period 1981–86

    • b. The period 1987–94

• IV. The Role of Fiscal Policies

• V. Structural and Pricing Policies

  • 1. Agricultural pricing and marketing policies

  • 2. Trade and foreign exchange policies

  • 3. Public sector adjustment

  • 4. Interest rate and financial sector reforms

  • 5. Reform sequencing, pace, and the efficiency of investment

• VI. Concluding Remarks

• Text Tables

  • 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1980/81–1985/86

  • 2. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1986/87–1993/94

• References

• Appendix I. Summary of the Tax System as of February 1995

• Appendix II. Statistical Tables

  • 1. Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost by Industry, at Current Prices, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 2. Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost by Industry, at Constant 1991 Prices, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 3. Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure in Current Prices, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 4. Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP at Market Prices, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 5. Gross Domestic Product by Sector at Constant 1991 Prices, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 6. Composite Consumer Price Index, September 1989-January 1995

  • 7. Production and Cultivated Areas of Selected Food Crops, 1989-94

  • 8. Production of Traditional Export Crops, 1989-94

  • 9. Average Prices for Principal Cash Crops, 1990-94

  • 10. Estimates of Livestock Population and Milk Production, 1990-94

  • 11. Fish Production by Region, 1990-94

  • 12. Total Production of Round-Wood Timber and Charcoal, 1990-94

  • 13. Metered Rates for the National Water and Sewerage Corporation, 1990-94

  • 14. Electricity Capacity and Generation, 1990-94

  • 15. Electricity Sales by Uganda Electricity Board, 1990-94

  • 16. Transport and Communications, 1990-94

  • 17. Pump Prices for Petroleum Products, 1990-94

  • 18. Index of Industrial Production, Annual Summary for Groups and Subgroups, 1990-94

  • 19. Production of Selected Manufactured Commodities, 1990-93

  • 20. Average Market Prices for Selected Consumer Goods, 1990-94

  • 21. Central Government Budgetary Operations, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 22. Government Recurrent Expenditure, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 23. Government Recurrent Revenue, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 24. Government Development Expenditure by Ministry, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 25. Government Securities Outstanding by Holders, 1989-94

  • 26. Monetary Survey, 1989-94

  • 27. Summary Accounts of the Bank of Uganda, 1991-94

  • 28. Summary Accounts of the Commercial Banks, 1989-94

  • 29. Structure of Interest Rates, 1989-94

  • 30. Commercial Banks’ Advances to the Private Sector by Economic Activity, 1989-94

  • 31. Balance of Payments, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 32. Merchandise Imports, 1988-92

  • 33. Imports by Economic Classification, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 34. Merchandise Exports, 1989/90-1993/94

  • 35. Bank of Uganda Auction and Parallel Bureau Exchange Rates, 1989-94

  • 36. External Trade Indices, 1985-93

  • 37. Coffee Price, Volume, and Value, 1989-94

  • 38. External Debt Outstanding, June 1991-December 1994

  • 39. External Arrears, June 1991-December 1994

• Charts

  • 1. Real GDP and Sectoral Growth, 1965–94

  • 2. Gross Domestic Investment, 1965–94

  • 3. Gross Domestic Savings, 1965–94

  • 4. Real Per Capita GDP, 1965–94

  • 5. Real GDP by Sectors, 1965–94

  • 6. Gross National Savings, 1987–94

  • 7. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Comparison

  • 8. Real GDP Growth and Trends, 1965–94

  • 9. Real Effective Exchange Rate, 1979–94