Denmark
Supplementary Charts and Tables
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International Monetary Fund
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This supplementary report examines selected background issues in Denmark using charts and tables. Economic growth accelerated sharply in 1994, following several years of steady but unspectacular expansion. It is projected to slow somewhat in 1995–96 but remain above potential. Unemployment, which had risen steeply during the period of subdued growth, responded slowly to the robust recovery that has been under way since the second half of 1993. However, it has been falling rapidly in recent months. Its rapid fall is projected to continue through 1996.

Abstract

This supplementary report examines selected background issues in Denmark using charts and tables. Economic growth accelerated sharply in 1994, following several years of steady but unspectacular expansion. It is projected to slow somewhat in 1995–96 but remain above potential. Unemployment, which had risen steeply during the period of subdued growth, responded slowly to the robust recovery that has been under way since the second half of 1993. However, it has been falling rapidly in recent months. Its rapid fall is projected to continue through 1996.

CHART 1
CHART 1

Denmark: Real GDP Growth

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

Economic growth accelerated sharply in 1994, following several years of steady but unspectacular expansion. It is projected to slow somewhat in 1995-96 but remain above potential.

CHART 2
CHART 2

Denmark: Unemployment Rate

(In percent of labor force)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

Unemployment, which had risen steeply during the period of subdued growth, responded slowly to the robust recovery that has been under way since the second half of 1993. However, it has been falling rapidly in recent months. Its rapid fall is projected to continue through 1996.

CHART 3
CHART 3

Denmark: Average Hourly Earnings in Manufacturing

(Percent change)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

Wage inflation has so far remained subdued, in contrast to the experience during earlier cyclical recoveries. Little acceleration is projected in 1995-96.

CHART 4
CHART 4

Denmark: Consumer Price Index

(Percent change)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

The rate of inflation has been dramatically lower in recent years than in the 1980s and among the lowest in industrial countries. A slight acceleration after 1993 reflects mainly the impact of increases in net indirect taxes.

CHART 5
CHART 5

Denmark: Private Saving Ratio

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

Changes in the tax system in the mid-1980s reduced incentives for borrowing and stimulated a large increase in the private savings ratio. This is expected to be sustained in 1995-96.

CHART 6
CHART 6

Denmark: Real Exports of Goods and Services

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

Rapid growth in exports sustained economic activity during the period of depressed domestic demand in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Exports weakened markedly during the deep 1992-93 recession in Europe, but recovered strongly in 1994 and are expected to continue to grow rapidly in 1995-1996.

CHART 7
CHART 7

Denmark: Real Imports of Goods and Services

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

Imports rose sharply in 1994, in part because the surge in consumer spending was concentrated in durable goods which have a high import content. Their growth is expected to moderate in 1995-96.

CHART 8
CHART 8

Denmark: External Current Account

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

The turnaround in the external current account position, from sizable deficits up to the late 1980s to modest surpluses thereafter, has been sustained in 1994 notwithstanding the pickup in the rate of growth of domestic demand and output. Continued modest surpluses are projected for 1995-96.

CHART 9
CHART 9

Denmark: Net Foreign Debt

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.1/ Series break in 1991 raised the estimate of net external debt by 58bn DKr, or 7% of 1991 GDP.

Denmark’s net foreign debt has been falling stedily in recent years, although it remains high for an advanced industrial country. Some further reduction is likely in. the foreseeable future.

CHART 10
CHART 10

Denmark: Effective Exchange Rates (1991=100)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: OECD Economic Outlook.1/ Based on relevant unit labor costs in manufacturing.

The Krone has appreciated markedly in nominal effective terms over the past several years. However, the effect of this appreciation on competitiveness has tended to be offset by Denmark’s comparatively low rate of increase in unit labor costs. The real effective exchange rate has fluctuated erratically along a flat trend.

CHART 11
CHART 11

Denmark: General Government Balance

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

The major fiscal consolidation effort of the 1980s was partially reversed in the early 1990s as measures were taken to stimulate economic growth and alleviate unemployment. A renewed emphasis on consolidation is now underway and is projected to continue in 1995-96, reducing general government net borrowing well below the relevant Maastricht criterion.

CHART 12
CHART 12

Denmark: General Government Debt

(In percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 1995, 042; 10.5089/9781451811063.002.A001

Source: Danmarks Statistik. Official projections for 1995 and 1996.

Gross government debt is stabilizing at a level substantially higher than the relevant Maastricht criterion. However, a sizable part of the debt reflects institutional factors peculiar to Denmark that distort international comparisons. Adjusted for these factors, the debt is below 60% of GDP.

Table A1.

Denmark: GDP and Expenditure Components

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Sources: Danmarks Statistik; and Ministry of Economic Affairs, Økonomisk Oversigt.

Official estimates as of February 1995.

Estimates as of December 1994.

Table A2.

Denmark: GDP at Factor Cost

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Sources: Danmarks Statistik, Statistik Manedsoversigt 1995: 3.
Table A3.

Denmark: Labor Market

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Sources: Danmarks Statistik; and Ministry of Economic Affairs, Økonomisk Oversigt.

Official estimate as of 2/9/95.

At the beginning of the period.

National accounts basis.

December 1994.

Table A4.

Denmark: Savings, Investment, and Financial Balances 1/

(In percent of GDP)

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Source: Danmarks Statistik; and Ministry of Economic Affairs, Økonomisk Oversigt.

National accounts basis.

Official estimate as of February 1995.

Not identical to the current account in the balance of payments because of classification differences with respect to Greenland and Faroe Islands.

Table A5.

Denmark: Prices, Wages, and Unit Labor Costs

(Percentage change)

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Sources: Danmarks Statistik; Ministry of Economic Affairs; Økonomisk Oversigt, various issues; and data supplied by the Danish authorities.

Official estimates for hourly compensation and unit labor costs.

Index of net retail prices, including energy items.

1990–100.

Productivity in private non-agricultural sector.

Table A6.

Denmark: Disposable Income, Savings, and Consumption

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Sources: Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Compensation for employees is computed as corporate wage expenditures, i.e. including social contributions and imputed pensions for civil servants. These figures have been added to the employees contributions to get the disposable income.

A description of the distribution of the operating surplus and net interest between households and the corporate sector can be found in the Økonomisk Oversigt, October 1990, chapter II. Interest payments in pension funds etc. are net of deductions for real interest duty.

The disposable income in the corporate sector equals savings by definition.

Table A7.

Denmark: Consolidated Public Sector Finances1/

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Sources: Danmarks Statistik, Den offentlige sektors finanser. Ministry of Economics, Økonomisk Oversigt, December 1994.

National accounts basis.

Official estimates as of December 1994.

Including early retirement benefits and social assistance grants.

Table A8.

Denmark: Central Government Finances; Current, Investment, and Loan Account

(In billions of Danish kroner)

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Sources: Data provided by the Danish authorities; and Nationalregnskab, Offentlige Finanses.
Table A9.

Denmark: Local Government Finances

(In billions of Danish kroner)

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Source: Data provided by the Danish authorities.

General grants only Reimbursement of specific expenditure is deducted from current expenditure.

Includes use of liquid funds.

Table A10.

Denmark: Social Security Accounts1/

(In billions of Danish kroner)

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Source: Data provided by the Danish authorities.

Consisting of Labor Market Supplementary Pension Fund, Employees’ Capital Pension Fund, Employees’ Guarantee Fund, and the unemployment insurance system. The data are on a national accounts basis.

Official estimates as of December 1994.

Reimbursements of unemployment benefits and early retirement benefits. The tax on pension fund capital of the social security funds is deducted.

Unemployment benefits, early retirement benefits, supplementary pensions, and capital pensions.

Table A11.

Denmark: Central Government Financing

(In billions of Danish kroner)

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Sources: Ministry of Finance, Budgetoversigt: and data supplied by the Danish authorities.

Official estimates, Budgetoversigt 4/1994.

Table A12.

Denmark: Interest Rates

(In percent per annum: period averages)

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Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank, Monetary Review, August 1993; IMF, International Financial Statistics: and data provided by the Danish authorities.

End-period data.

The rate at which the Nationalbank allowed the banks to overdraw their current accounts at the Central Bank. It was replaced in April 1992 as the main operational short term interest rate by the repurchase rate. Rates shown are for the end of the relevant period.

Redemption to be completed in 20 years.

Table A13.

Denmark: Exchange Rate Developments

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Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.
Table A14.

Denmark: Factors Affecting Broad Money

(In billions of Danish kroner)

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Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank, Monetary Review.

Preliminary estimates.

Adjustments made for structural break between 1990 and 1991.

Table A15.

Denmark: Sectoral Distribution of Domestic Lending by Commercial and Savings Banks

(In percent of total, end of period)

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Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank, Monetary Review.

Until end-1990, including lending to mortgage-credit institutes, etc.

Includes public administration.

Table A16.

Denmark: Balance of Payments

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Sources: Danmarks Statistik and Danmarks Nationalbank.

Preliminary estimates.

Includes transit trade and the net exports and imports of Greenland and the Faeroe Islands.

Including unrequited transfers and EU payments.

Including net errors and omissions and non-recorded payments.

End-period data, including valuation changes.

Table A17.

Denmark: Indicators of Trade Performance

(Percentage change)

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Sources: Denmarks Statistik, Monthly Review of Statistics: Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ekonomisk Oversipt: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics: OECD, Economic Outlook: World Economic Outlook: and staff projections.

Preliminary estimates.

Based on growth in non-oil imports of partner countries.

Ratio of import volume to real GDP.

Based on relative unit labor costs.

Table A18.

Denmark: Net Balances on the Invisibles Account

(In billions of kroner)

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Source: Denmarks Statistik.

Preliminary estimates.

Table A19.

Denmark: Recorded Capital Flows

(In billions of Danish kroner: + - net inflow from abroad)

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Source: Danmarks Nationalbank.

Preliminary estimates.

Starting in 1992 intra-group loans are included in direct investment. Previously they had been included in borrowing and lending.

Table A20.

Denmark: International Reserves

(In billions of kroner at end of period)

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Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank. Report and Accounts for the year 1994: and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

National valuation; based on the average price of gold, estimated by the European Monetary Cooperation Fund for the preceding half-year, not exceeding the price for the penultimate working day of the period.

Gold valued at SDR 35 per ounce.

Table A21.

Denmark: Net External Debt

(In billions of kroner at end of period)

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Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank: Annual Report for 1989 and 1990. Monetary Review, May 1994.

These figures are based on a new survey at end-1991 which has increased net external debt with 58 bn. Danish kroner. In addition, the public sector is redefined, now excluding public enterprises which are included in the private non-bank sector.

Table A22.

Denmark: External Debt Service

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Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank and Danmarks Statistik.

January - November.

Adjusted to exclude prepayments and short-term repayments by the Danish Oil and Natural Gas Company.

Excluding equity capital, portfolio investment, and short-term liabilities.

Table A23.

Official Development Assistance

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Source: Data provided by the Danish authorities.
1/

H. Vittas, R. Corker, M. Griffiths, S. Meehan, J. Stefanska.

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Denmark: Supplementary Charts and Tables
Author:
International Monetary Fund