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The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap
Author:
Eugenio M Cerutti
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Antonio I Garcia Pascual https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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,
Yosuke Kido
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,
Longji Li
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Giovanni Melina
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Marina Mendes Tavares
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Philippe Wingender
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2025: Issue 076
Language:
English
Publication Date:
11 Apr 2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229008570.001
ISBN:
9798229008570
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
33
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; Productivity; Multi-Region DSGE Model; productivity gain; preparedness scenario; AI preparedness; IMF working paper No. 25/76; AI gap; Total factor productivity; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Caribbean; Africa
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper examines the uneven global impact of AI, highlighting how its effects will be a function of (i) countries’ sectoral exposure to AI, (ii) their preparedness to integrate these technologies into their economies, and (iii) their access to essential data and technologies. We feed these three aspects into a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of the global economy and show that AI will exacerbate cross-country income inequality, disproportionately benefiting advanced economies. Indeed, the estimated growth impact in advanced economies could be more than double that in low-income countries. While improvements in AI preparedness and access can mitigate these disparities, they are unlikely to fully offset them. Moreover, the AI-driven productivity gains could reduce the traditional role of exchange rate adjustments due to AI’s large impact in the non-tradable sector—a mechanism akin to an inverse Balassa-Samuelson effect.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund