Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Author:
Hany Abdel-Latif
Search for other papers by Hany Abdel-Latif in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
and
Adina Popescu
Search for other papers by Adina Popescu in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2025: Issue 027
Language:
English
Publication Date:
24 Jan 2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229000529.001
ISBN:
9798229000529
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
30
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (2.4 MB) Download Epub
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund