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Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections
Author:
Cristina Cattaneo
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,
Emanuele Massetti
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,
Shouro Dasgupta
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, and
Fabio Farinosi
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2024: Issue 058
Language:
English
Publication Date:
15 Mar 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270772.001
ISBN:
9798400270772
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
32
Keywords:
Climate change; International Migration.; A. migration data; country-by-country emigration flow; climate scenario; climate variability; gravity equation; Migration; Natural disasters; Population growth; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund