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The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Author:
Philipp Engler https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
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Mr. Roberto Piazza
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Galen Sher https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 259
Language:
English
Publication Date:
15 Dec 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400261794.001
ISBN:
9798400261794
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
19
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund