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Author:
Alejandro Badel
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Rishi Goyal https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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©2023 International Monetary Fund

WP/23/189

IMF Working Paper

Strategy, Policy, and Review Department

When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?

Prepared by Alejandro Badel and Rishi Goyal

Authorized for distribution by Rishi Goyal

September 2023

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

ABSTRACT: On the current pace of reforms, global gender gaps are estimated to close, using deterministic (linear or log-linear) trends, over the next three centuries. This means that many women will likely not be able to fully use their abilities and talents, to the detriment of societies, for a long time. Yet this paper shows that, absent a significant step up in policy efforts, gender gaps may in fact never close. Using Markov chains, a common approach in macroeconomics, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the cross-country distribution of the gender gap in labor force participation. This methodology does not impose strong restrictions on the data, allowing for episodes of progress as well as regress by countries on gender inequality. Based on the experience of the past three decades, the analysis predicts a further narrowing of gender gaps over time. But the long-run distribution of gender gaps in labor force participation features a substantial share of countries with persistently large gaps, implying that—absent a strengthened and systematic policy effort—some of the current misallocation of women’s talents and abilities could persist perpetually.

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Badel, Alejandro, and Rishi Goyal, 2023. “When will Global Gender Gaps Close?” IMF Working Paper 23/189. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

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We thank Khaled Abdelkader, Mitali Das, Silvia Domit, Stefania Fabrizio, Diego Gomes, Jiajia Gu, Phoebe Kieti, Lisa Kolovich, Nagwa Riad, Kangni Roland Kpodar, Cristina Pagan, Monique Newiak, Dharana Rijal, Kazuko Shirono, Nikola Spatafora, and Irene Yackovlev for helpful comments. We also thank Deise Silva and Dan Zheng for excellent assistance and the IMF Gender Data Hub for facilitating access to data. This research is part of a Macroeconomic Research in Low-Income Countries project (Project ID: 60925) supported by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF or FCDO. A replication package for this paper is available from the authors upon request.

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When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?
Author:
Alejandro Badel
and
Rishi Goyal