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Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition
Author:
Etienne Espagne
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William Oman https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Jean-François Mercure
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Romain Svartzman
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Ulrich Volz
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Hector Pollitt
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Gregor Semieniuk
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Emanuele Campiglio
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 184
Language:
English
Publication Date:
08 Sep 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400254550.001
ISBN:
9798400254550
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
59
Keywords:
Climate change; transition risks; cross-border risks; trade; international money and finance.; asset purchase; energy export; baseline export; baseline GDP; cost of capital; Non-renewable resources; Climate policy; Exports; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund