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Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Author:
Omer Faruk Akbal
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,
Mr. Seung M Choi
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,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
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, and
Jiaxiong Yao
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 158
Language:
English
Publication Date:
04 Aug 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400245053.001
ISBN:
9798400245053
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
36
Keywords:
Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund