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Far More Than a Shot in the Arm: Vaccines and Consumer Spending
Author:
Mr. Serhan Cevik
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2373-2023
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 081
Language:
English
Publication Date:
21 Apr 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400240324.001
ISBN:
9798400240324
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
15
Keywords:
Pandemic; COVID-19; vaccination; household behavior; consumer spending; card transactions; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; vaccine rollout; credit card transactions; vaccination deployment; government intervention; vaccination effort; Consumer credit; Household consumption
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions have reshaped economic activity with abrupt changes in household consumption behavior across the world. This paper provides an empirical investigation of how the COVID-19 vaccine rollout has affected consumer spending at daily frequency using debit and credit card transactions in three European countries. Empirical results show that COVID-19 vaccinations, along with other policy interventions, have mitigated the severe negative impact of the pandemic and boosted consumer spending. First, the vaccination deployment has a statistically and economically significant positive effect on private consumption. Second, other policy responses to the pandemic—designed to contain the spread of the virus and provide support to businesses and households—have significant effects on the amount and composition of debit and credit card transactions. Third, the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations in terms of stimulating consumer spending appears to be more pronounced on contact-intensive sectors such as services than goods.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund