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European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options
Author:
Ms. Laura Valderrama
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https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5968-6092
,
Patrik Gorse
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,
Ms. Marina Marinkov
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, and
Petia Topalova https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 076
Language:
English
Publication Date:
24 Mar 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400237782.001
ISBN:
9798400237782
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
47
Keywords:
Housing markets; overvaluation; affordability; household vulnerability; tenure status; income distribution; consumption; financial stability; targeted support; macroprudential policy.; EU banking sector; banking sector implication; housing market correction; house price correction; bank capital; Mortgages; Housing prices; Income; Housing; Europe; Eastern Europe
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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European housing markets are at a turning point as the cost-of-living crisis has eroded real incomes and the surge in interest rates has made borrowers more vulnerable to financial distress. This paper aims to (i) shed light on the risks in European housing markets, (ii) quantify household vulnerabilties, (iii) assess banking sector implications and (iv) examine policies’ effectiveness using simulations based on microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). Under the baseline IMF macroeconomic forecast, the share of households that could struggle to meet basic expenses could rise by 10 pps reaching a third of all households by end 2023. Under an adverse scenario, 45 percent of households could be financially stretched, representing over 40 percent of mortgage debt and 45 percent of consumer debt. The impact on the banking sector seems contained under the baseline forecast, though there are pockets of vulnerability. A 20 percent house price correction could deplete CET1 capital by 100-300 basis points. Fiscal measures, such as subsidies to the bottom income tercile, could save 7 percent of households from financial distress at an estimated cost of 0.8 percent of GDP.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund