IMF Working Papers Volume 2023 Issue 039: Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (2023)

Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Zo Andriantomanga

Zo Andriantomanga
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Marijn A. Bolhuis

0000000404811396

https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Shushanik Hakobyan

Shushanik Hakobyan
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Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2023: Issue 039

Publication Date:: 24 Feb 2023

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400235436.001

ISBN:: 9798400235436

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 41

Keywords:: Inflation; global supply chains; sub-Saharan Africa; shipping costs; monetary policy; core inflation; food prices; oil price; monetary policy stance; inflation in sub-Saharan Africa; monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa; inflation component; GSCPI shocks to inflation; Supply shocks; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Global

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2023: Issue 039

Language:: English

Publication Date:: 24 Feb 2023

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400235436.001

ISBN:: 9798400235436

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 41

Keywords:: Inflation; global supply chains; sub-Saharan Africa; shipping costs; monetary policy; core inflation; food prices; oil price; monetary policy stance; inflation in sub-Saharan Africa; monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa; inflation component; GSCPI shocks to inflation; Supply shocks; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Global

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a large disruption of global supply chains. This paper studies the implications of supply chain disruptions for inflation and monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa. Increases in supply chain pressures have had a sizeable impact on headline, food, and tradable inflation for a panel of 29 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2022. Our findings suggest that central banks can stabilize inflation and output more efficiently by monitoring global supply chains and adjusting the monetary policy stance before the disruptions have fully passed through into all inflation components. The gains from monitoring supply chain disruptions are particularly large for open economies which tend to experience outsized second-round effects on the prices of non-tradable goods and services.

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IMF Working Papers

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

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