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© 2023 International Monetary Fund
WP/23/17
IMF Working Paper
Western Hemisphere Department
Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States Prepared by Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, and Yorbol Yakhshilikov*
Authorized for distribution by Bas Bakker
January 2023
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
ABSTRACT: Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990–2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.
RECOMMENDED CITATION: Carare, Alina, Koh Catherine, and Yorbol Yakshilkhov, 2022, “Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States”, International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/23/17
| JEL Classification Numbers: | F22, J11, J61 |
| Keywords: | International migration; undocumented migration |
| Author’s E-Mail Address: | ACarare@imf.org, CKoh@imf.org, YYakhshilikov@imf.org |
| JEL Classification Numbers: | F22, J11, J61 |
| Keywords: | International migration; undocumented migration |
| Author’s E-Mail Address: | ACarare@imf.org, CKoh@imf.org, YYakhshilikov@imf.org |
Title Page
WORKING PAPERS
Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the U.S.
Prepared by Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, and Yorbol Yakhshilikov
Contents
Glossary
I. Introduction
II. Model
III. Data and Stylized Facts
IV. Estimation Strategy and Results
V. Concluding Remarks, Outlook, and Policy Implications
References
ANNEXES
Annex I. Investment Decision Theory of Undocumented Migration
Annex II. Border Apprehensions and Undocumented Migration
Annex III. Evolution of the Factors Driving Migration
Annex IV. Country Results
Annex V. Unit Root and Cointegration Tests
Annex VI. Robustness Tests
Annex VII. Discussion on the Role of Border Enforcement Measures
FIGURES
Figure 1. Evolution of Apprehensions at U.S. Southwest Border/
Figure 2. Fitness of Estimated Model
ANNEX FIGURES
Figure III.1. Economic Factors Driving Undocumented Migration
Figure III.2. Homicide Rate
Figure III.3. Socioeconomic Factors Driving Migration
Figure IV.1. Country Specific Results: Goodness of Fit and Role of Various Factors Explaining the Increase in Migration in FY2019 compared to FY2011
Figure IV.2. Country Specific Nontraditional Factors
ANNEX TABLES
Table V.1. Unit Root Test
Table V.2. Cointegration Test between Border Apprehensions and Various Indicators
Table VI.1. Determinants of Evolution of Border Apprehensions of NT Citizens (FY1994 – FY2019)
Table VI.2. Determinants of Evolution of Border Apprehensions of NT Citizens (FY1994 – FY2019)
Table VI.3. Instrumental Variable and Residual Enforcement Regressions (FY1994 – FY2019)
Table VI.4. Pre-existing Network and Border Apprehensions (FY1994 – FY2019)
Glossary
| CBP | U.S. Customs and Border Protection |
| CMS | Center for Migration Studies |
| DACA | Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals |
| DHS | U.S. Department of Homeland Security |
| ECLAC | Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean |
| FAOSTAT | Statistics Department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| IDA | Institute for Defense Analyses |
| ILO | International Labor Organization of the United Nations |
| IRCA | Immigration Reform and Control Act |
| NT | Northern Triangle |
| UNODC | United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime |
| USDA | U.S. Department of Agriculture |
The authors would like to thank Alejandro Werner, Bas Bakker, Saul Chicas Cienfuegos, Raphael Espinoza, Kangni Kpodar, Antonio Spilimbergo, Joyce Wong, and IMF WHD seminars participants.